For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the game script for Thursday Night Football, while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend. The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs. Let’s dive in…
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMESCRIPT
After starting the season 1-4, the St. Louis Rams have rebounded nicely and have since gone 5-3 to almost get to 0.500 on the season. They will look to do exactly that against the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday night in St. Louis, where the Rams have won three in a row including games against the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. The Cardinals, at 10-3 and in first place in the NFC West, stumble into St. Louis, having lost two of the previous three games and barely winning last week against the Chiefs. Despite being the sub-.500 team, the Rams enter the game as 4.5-point favorites in a game that Vegas predicts will be one of the lowest scoring games of the week.
Since losing QB Carson Palmer to a season-ending injury in Week #10 against these same St. Louis Rams, the Cardinals’ offense has stuttered; they are averaging 13.0 points scored and 312.8 yards of total offense per game over those four games. Palmer’s replacement, Drew Stanton, has thrown more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) since taking over for Palmer and his QB rating has been wretched at 76.6 over the past month. Further complicating matters is the fact that the Cardinals also lost RB Andre Ellington to a season-ending sports hernia last week; prior to his injury, Ellington was involved in both phases of the Arizona offense (over 1000 all-purpose yards and nearly 50 receptions before his injury) and the Cardinals cannot replace him with a single player. Last week, Stepfan Taylor (18 snaps) started the game against the Kansas City Chiefs, but he was heavily-spelled by several other running backs, Kerwynn Williams (26 snaps) and Marion Grice (15 snaps). Williams was the best of the bunch, finishing the day with 100 yards rushing on 19 carries, but was not targeted once in the passing game. In their matchup against the Rams 10th ranked rush defense, the Cardinals will have their hands full and none of these backs holds much DFS value given their poor matchup and limited workload.
The Rams have been equally bitten by the injury bug in 2014. After losing QB Sam Bradford to a season-ending injury in the preseason, the Rams have bounced back and forth between Shaun Hill and Austin Davis to lead the team’s offense this season. Most recently, it has been Hill heading up the offense; while he has not been stellar, he has been serviceable in the starting role. Hill’s biggest problem is that he has no star receiver to target in this offense. Brian Quick was impressive early in the season, but, he, too, was lost in Week #8 due to a torn rotator cuff. Since the Quick injury, no single receiver has stepped up to fill his shoes and the Rams’ passing game has suffered tremendously. One player who has impressed on the Rams’ offense is rookie RB Tre Mason. Mason is averaging 4.2 yards per carry behind the league’s 20th rated rush blocking offensive line (per ProFootballFocus); to his credit, Mason has looked strong when given the opportunity and it appears that the job is his moving forward. Mason’s matchup against the Cardinals is not optimal, however, because the Cardinals are allowing only 3.9 yards per carry and 92.1 rushing yards per game on the season, which tampers expectations for Mason on Thursday night.
Overall, this game holds little (no?) value for DFS purposes and could be entirely avoided heading into the weekend slate. If you must play, my recommendation is to fade the game entirely and hope that the masses take a flyer on a Thursday night player; when the game is low-scoring (and a fantasy flop), you will be ahead going into the weekend. If you absolutely must play somebody from the Thursday night game, I would recommend the home defense, the St. Louis Rams.
Predicted Score: St. Louis 17, Arizona 13.
Here are my rated selections for both cash games & GPPs:
4-stars: None
3-stars: None
2-stars: None
1-star: Rams' defense (FD @ $5500, DK @ $3600)
KICKERS
Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend. If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team. With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):
Stephen Gostkowski, NE ($5400 versus Miami): The Patriots' offense is averaging 30.8 points per game and they are averaging 35.7 points per game at home. This week, they host the Miami Dolphins, who are in the top ten of most defensive categories in the NFL. Vegas projects the Patriots to score 28 points, which means that they fully expect the Pats to move the ball, yet the statistics tell us that the Dolphins could manage to put up some resistance. These data bode well for Gostkowski, who should get a few shots at a field goal, along with several extra point attempts. If you have the salary, he makes a lot of sense at the position.
Justin Tucker, BAL ($5000 versus Jacksonville): Baltimore is slated to score more points than any other offense on the week (29.5 points). Meanwhile, their kicker, Justin Tucker, has converted 25/28 field goal opportunities and is perfect in extra point attempts (37/37) on the season (averaging 9.5 fantasy points per game). At a mid-level price point, Tucker offers both a solid floor and decent upside.
Connor Barth, DEN ($4700 versus San Diego): Denver's kicker at a venue that rarely sees adverse conditions at near-minimum salary? Yes, please.
TEAM DEFENSES
Ravens (versus Jacksonville): (FD: $5300, DK: $3400). The Ravens are in the thick of the playoff race and they have a home game against one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Jags, namely Blake Bortles, have a propensity for throwing "pick-sixes" and the Ravens are the type of defense that will be able to pressure the Jags' O-line all afternoon. The Ravens are the cream of the defensive crop this weekend and should achor your cash game lineups, if you can afford the few hundred extra dollars.
Chiefs (versus Oakland): (FD: $4900, DK: $3300). As an alternative to the Ravens, the Chiefs' matchup against the Raiders is quite attractive. The Chiefs are allowing only 17.7 points per game at home and will host the league's 31st ranked scoring offense, the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have won two of their last three games, including one against this same Chiefs' team, but those games were in Oakland. This weekend, the Chiefs will be looking to avenge their Thursday night loss against the Raiders from a few weeks ago and it would not be surprising to see them keep the Raiders to less than 10 total points in Arrowhead.
Titans (versus NY Jets): (FD: $4700, DK: $2700). Not for the weak-hearted, the Tennessee Titans are a possible cheap defense for DFS rosters this week. The Titans have been downright terrible on defense over the past month, but if there is a remedy for that problem, it has to come in the form of the NY Jets. The Jets have won only two games all season and have not won a single game on the road. With Geno Smith at quarterback, the Jets are a bad offensive team and subject to turnovers at any given time. While the Titans are not my favorite play of the week, they represent a good GPP play because they are inexpensive and most will not have the gumption to click 'submit' with the Titans on their roster.
