Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Running Game | Passing Game | Team Defense |
Baltimore | Jacksonville | -14 | 29.5 | 45 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
Philadelphia | Dallas | -3.5 | 29.25 | 55 | ++ | +++ | |
New Orleans | Chicago | -3 | 28.5 | 54 | ++ | +++ | |
New England | Miami | -8 | 28 | 48 | ++ | ++ | |
Green Bay | Buffalo | -5 | 27.75 | 50.5 | + | ++ | |
Indianapolis | Houston | -6.5 | 27.75 | 49 | ++ | ++ | |
Pittsburgh | Atlanta | -1 | 27.5 | 54 | ++ | ++ | |
Denver | San Diego | -4 | 27.25 | 50.5 | + | ++ | |
Atlanta | Pittsburgh | 1 | 26.5 | 54 | + | + | |
NY Giants | Washington | -6.5 | 26.5 | 46.5 | + | + | |
Kansas City | Oakland | -10.5 | 26 | 41.5 | ++ | +++ | |
Dallas | Philadelphia | 3.5 | 25.75 | 55 | |||
Detroit | Minnesota | -8 | 25.5 | 43 | + | ++ | |
Chicago | New Orleans | 3 | 25.5 | 54 | |||
Seattle | San Francisco | -9.5 | 23.75 | 38 | + | +++ | |
Carolina | Tampa Bay | -5 | 23.5 | 42 | + | ||
San Diego | Denver | 4 | 23.25 | 50.5 | |||
Buffalo | Green Bay | 5 | 22.75 | 50.5 | |||
Cincinnati | Cleveland | 0 | 22 | 44 | |||
Cleveland | Cincinnati | 0 | 22 | 44 | |||
St. Louis | Arizona | -4.5 | 22 | 39.5 | ++ | ||
NY Jets | Tennessee | -1.5 | 21.75 | 42 | |||
Houston | Indianapolis | 6.5 | 21.25 | 49 | |||
Tennessee | NY Jets | 1.5 | 20.25 | 42 | |||
Miami | New England | 8 | 20 | 48 | + | ||
Washington | NY Giants | 6.5 | 20 | 46.5 | |||
Tampa Bay | Carolina | 5 | 18.5 | 42 | |||
Arizona | St. Louis | 4.5 | 17.5 | 39.5 | |||
Minnesota | Detroit | 8 | 17.5 | 43 | |||
Oakland | Kansas City | 10.5 | 15.5 | 41.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Baltimore | 14 | 15.5 | 45 | |||
San Francisco | Seattle | 9.5 | 14.25 | 38 |
THREE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Philadelphia (versus Dallas): The Sunday Night Football game has been comparitively high-scoring for most of the season; this weekend should be no different when the Eagles host the Cowboys in a game that has the highest Vegas total of the NFL slate. The Eagles are scoring 29.9 points per game and get a Dallas defense that is ranked 25th in defending the pass (passing yards per game); on Thanksgiving, these teams met and the Eagles only passed for 217 yards, but they were clearly in command for most of the game. This week should be different, as the Cowboys' playoff hopes hinge on the outcome of this game and, therefore, expect the Cowboys to stay competitive throughout, forcing Mark Sanchez to throw the ball often.
- New Orleans (versus Chicago): Drew Brees killed many a DFS roster last week when he was able to only muster 235 passing yards and 1 touchdown against the lowly Carolina Panthers at home. This week, Brees is in a prime position to bounce back against the Chicago Bears, who have allowed more passing touchdowns than every other team in the NFL (30). Brees will rebound nicely in this effort and Vegas has full confidence in him, as evidenced by the Saints' 28.5-point team total.
RUNNING GAME
- Baltimore (versus Jacksonville): The Jaguars' rush defense is downright terrible without LB Paul Posluszny, who went on the IR after Week #7 with a torn pectoral; since then, the Jags have given up > 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs including 8 rushing touchdowns over 6 games. Enter Justin Forsett, who has emerged as Baltimore's RB1 over the past month and who has scored touchdowns in three of the Ravens' previous four games. Forsett could be one of the best plays of the week, particularly given the Ravens' 29.5-point team total.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Baltimore (versus Jacksonville): The Ravens host the Jaguars, who are 31st in the NFL in scoring and yield more sacks than any team in football. Meanwhile, the Ravens are, by far, the most highly-rated pass rush defense in the league. None of this bodes well for the rookie quarterback (Bortles) on the other side of the ball, who has been known to make foolish mistakes that lead to defensive touchdowns.
- Kansas City (versus Oakland): A month ago, the Chiefs controlled their own playoff destiny and entered a Thursday night game against a winless Raiders team, expecting an easy win; they dropped that game and the two games thereafter. The Chiefs now find themselves in a must-win situation to even consider making the playoffs and they will face off against the same team that started their current losing streak at Arrowhead. This is the type of game that the Chiefs win going away...expect a lot from the Chiefs this weekend, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
- Seattle (versus San Francisco): The team with the lowest projected team total on the entire weekend belongs to the San Francisco 49ers (14.25 points). The Niners will travel to Seattle to play the Seahawks at CenturyLink field, where the home team has given up less than 15 points per game over their previous three games at home. The Seahawks have won six of their last seven games and this one should end up no differently; expect a big game from the home team on Sunday.
TWO STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Baltimore (versus Jacksonville): With a team total of 29.5-points, the Ravens' entire offense should be given consideration this weekend. The Ravens should be able to do whatever they choose to do against the Jags' defense and there is good reason to believe that the rushing game will be heavily employed, but Joe Flacco's upside in this matchup should not be ignored, particularly if his salary is low enough on your favorite DFS site.
- New England (versus Miami): Any time the New England Patriots' team total eclipses 28 points and they are playing at home, their offensive personnel should be on your DFS radar. Tom Brady's matchup against the NFL's #3 ranked pass defense does not look promising on paper, but Vegas does not feel Miami's plus defense will be able to slow down this Patriots' offense that is averaging 30.8 points per game on the season. Pairing Brady with your favorite New England receiver could make for a sneaky GPP play because most will be afraid to roster Brady at his price point, given the less than stellar matchup.
- Green Bay (versus Buffalo): Green Bay's offense is clicking on all cylinders and the team has won 9 out of their last 10 games. This week, Aaron Rodgers and company travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium, where the Bills will look to slow down the Packers; Vegas does not think the Bills can accomplish that task because the team total for the Packers is ~ 28 points. Something has to give, though, because the Bills are one of the league's better pass defenses (5th in passing yards allowed, 7th in pass coverage, and 8th in pass rushing) and they are not too bad against the run either (99.2 rushing yards per game; 8th in NFL).
- Indianapolis (versus Houston): Only four teams in the league are yielding more passing yards per game than the Houston Texans. This weekend, the Texans will travel to Indianapolis to matchup against the league's best passing unit and Andrew Luck; Luck is averaging 321.8 passing yards and almost 3 passing touchdowns per game, which does not look promising for this Houston secondary. Vegas oddsmakers tend to agree--the Colts are projected to score nearly four touchdowns on the day.
- Pittsburgh (versus Atlanta): Nobody is more excited than Ben Roethlisberger for this weekend's games. Big Ben gets a prime matchup against the league's worst pass defense (yards per game), the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have been terrible when defending the pass this year, allowing seven 300-yard passers (and two near-misses) out of 12 games played. Oddsmakers in Vegas see this as a great opportunity for Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers because they have projected the Steelers at nearly 28 points, despite being the visiting team.
- Denver (versus San Diego): After back-to-back sub-200 yard passing games, a lot of people will be reluctant to ride the Peyton Manning train in DFS formats this week. Do not forget that the Broncos' offense is multi-dimensional and will do what it takes to win football games; if the Chargers commit to stopping C.J. Anderson, Peyton will have no troubles getting back to his 300-yard, 3+ touchdown ways against the Chargers (as Tom Brady nearly did just one week ago against them). With a 27-point team total, do not make the mistake of bypassing Peyton based off the past few weeks--you may live to regret it.
RUNNING GAME
- Philadelphia (versus Dallas): Vegas projects the Eagles to score nearly 30 points on Sunday night and the one person who will see more action than any other player is LeSean McCoy. Prior to last week's debacle against the dominating Seattle Seahawks' defense, McCoy had touched the ball > 20 times in seven of his previous eight games. This weekend should be no different against a Dallas Cowboys' front seven that is allowing 4.4 yards per carry (tied for 28th in the NFL) and who yielded 159 yards and a touchdown to McCoy on Thanksgiving.
- New Orleans (versus Chicago): The Saints, after a letdown loss to Carolina last week, open as 3-point road favorites against the Bears this weekend. With a 28.5-point team total, the Saints' running backs should get their share of action, after being largely ignored due to gamescript last Sunday. Mark Ingram is the player to watch; in games where New Orleans has remained competitive this season, Ingram has routinely touched the ball 25 times and accrued solid numbers during those efforts.
- New England (versus Miami): Surprising stat of the week: The Miami Dolphins, widely considered to be an above-average defense, have given up an average of 175 rushing yards per game over their previous three games. This week, they get a New England offense that has begun to commit (is that possible for Bill Belichick?) to LeGarrette Blount as their lead back. As 8-point favorites projected to score 28-points, targeting the Pats' running game (Blount?) is a sneaky move that could win GPP's because most DFS gamers will not trust Belichick enough to roster a Pats' running back.
- Indianapolis (versus Houston): Daniel "Boom" Herron seems to be gaining the favor of the coaching staff in Indianapolis over the past few weeks, as evidenced by his snap count numbers (compared to Trent Richardson). At first glance, the matchup is not striking--the Texans are only allowing 3.9 yards per carry on the season and 109 yards per game on the ground; however, the Texans have only performed well against poor running backs, but have been toasted by good running backs (DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, and Rashad Jennings all had > 100-yard days versus Houston). Given the betting line and the Colts' team total, this could be a good spot to saddle up Boom Herron in GPP's and hope that the Colts continue to give him the ball.
- Pittsburgh (versus Atlanta): Some analyses are easier than others; this is the easiest. The hottest running back in the NFL meets the worst overall defense in the NFL. Le'Veon Bell should have a banner day against the Falcons.
- Kansas City (versus Oakland): The Chiefs are big favorites over the Raiders and that should mean plenty of second half action for the Kansas City backfield. As of the writing of this article, Jamaal Charles' health is still in question, but if he cannot go, Knile Davis becomes a must-play on DFS slates because his salary is likely low across the industry. If the Chiefs manage to score the 26-points that Vegas projects for them, almost all of them will go through the running game, based on historical performance.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Detroit (versus Minnesota): The Lions' defense continues to stifle opponents; they allow a league-low 17.2 points per game to their opponents. This week, they host the Minnesota Vikings, whose 30th ranked offense (total yards per game) would appear to be no match for the Lions. Vegas oddsmakers believe that the Lions can keep the Vikings to ~17 total points, which should make Detroit an attractive option for all formats of DFS rosters.
- St. Louis (versus Arizona): The Rams host the Cardinals in what appears to be a snoozer of a gameo on Thursday night. This game is a matchup of backup quarterbacks, second- and third-string running backs, and solid defenses, all of which projects for a defensive struggle; Vegas gives a slight nod to the Rams, likely because they are playing at home.
ONE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Atlanta (versus Pittsburgh): While everybody else is focusing on how to load up their rosters with players from the Eagles-Cowboys game, it would be wise not to forget those Falcons-Steelers players because the game total (54 points) is just one less than the game in Philadelphia. The Falcons' Matt Ryan now has back-to-back 300-yard passing games and is coming off a 4-touchdown performance against the Packers on Monday night. Oddsmakers are projecting the Falcons to score nearly 4 touchdowns in this one, which means that Matt Ryan could be in a nice spot to put up similar numbers again this week against a Steelers' secondary that has allowed at least 2 passing touchdowns in every game since Week #7.
- NY Giants (versus Washington): The Washington Redskins defensive weakness is undeniably their secondary; the Redskins are allowing a league-high 8.2 passing yards per attempt and only two teams have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Redskins. Enter Eli Manning who has embraced the arrival of rookie wide receiver Odell Beckham; since Beckham became the starter in Week #7, Manning has thrown for at least 1 passing touchdown and ~ 250 yards in every game. Against the Redskins' porous secondary, Manning will likely be looking for Beckman early and often.
- Miami (versus New England): As 8-point underdogs to the hometown New England Patriots, the Miami Dolphins could be forced to throw the ball more often than they historically have thrown the rock. Assuming the Dolphins fall behind, as Vegas would have us believe, a Ryan Tannehill-Jarvis Landry GPP stack makes a lot of sense, because they will be underowned, yet should see plenty of work, given the implied gamescript.
RUNNING GAME
- Green Bay (versus Buffalo): The Packers travel to Buffalo to face the Bills, who are fairly solid against the run (99.2 rushing yards per game; 8th in NFL). Oddsmakers have projected the Packers to score nearly 4 touchdowns in this matchup, which means that all components of the Green Bay offense should be given considertation; the problem with the Green Bay backfield is that Eddie Lacy still has not practiced due to a hip injury and his weekend is in doubt, leaving James Starks to possibly inherit the starting gig. If Starks starts, he could represent significant value for DFS rosters because his salary is likely low.
- Denver (versus San Diego): C.J. Anderson has been tremendous since taking over the starting running back job in Denver back in Week #12. He is averaging 146 all-purpose yards and nearly 2 touchdowns per game during that brief window; this weekend, Anderson matches up against the San Diego Chargers, who have an average rush defense (4.2 yards per carry). Because the threat of Peyton Manning always exists, defenses cannot commit to stopping the run, which keeps C.J. Anderson firmly in play this weekend...particularly with the Vegas team total of ~ 27-points.
- Atlanta (versus Pittsburgh): The Atlanta Falcons offensive line leaves a lot to be desired, but Steven Jackson has done a commendable job in running behind them this season. Jackson is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry on the season, but he sees at least 15 carries per game and is the Falcons' lead back at the goalline; he also has four touchdowns over the past six games and can catch the ball out of the backfield, when asked. With a 26.5-point team total and Julio Jones potentially slowed by injury, accessory players like Jackson could have higher fantasy floors on Sunday due to increased usage.
- NY Giants (versus Washington): As touchdown favorites, the Giants could be protecting a lead on Sunday, which puts their running game on the map. Rashad Jennings has looked solid against weaker opponents, but has struggled against tougher running defenses. This weekend, he faces the Redskins, who have allowed only two 100-yard rushers all season (DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster). This is one of those instances where the Vegas gamescript does not correlate well with the personnel; thus, rostering Rashad Jennings on your DFS rosters should only be done after careful consideration.
- Detroit (versus Minnesota): The Lions are 8-point home favorites, which indicates that they could be running often in the second half on Sunday against the Vikings. The Vikings are yielding 4.4 yards per carry and 127.2 rushing yards per game on the season, both of which rank in the bottom 10 in the league. The last time these teams met, both Joique Bell and Theo Riddick finished the day with touchdowns; Bell gets the edge this weekend because Riddick has been supplanted by Reggie Bush, while Bell is still getting the majority of the carries.
- Seattle (versus San Francisco): The 49ers are tough against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry and less than 100 rushing yards per game on the season. However, Marshawn Lynch is the type of running back who can gouge any defensive line and the Seahawks are strong 9.5-point favorites at home on Sunday. On a team that is run-first, Lynch is in a prime position to get plenty of opportunity to put up a DFS-worthy day; he represents a solid GPP play because most will be scared away from his matchup, but Vegas is telling us that we should not be.
TEAM DEFENSE
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Carolina (versus Tampa Bay): With Cam Newton possibly 'out' for the remainder of the season due to injuries sustained in an automobile accident this week, the Panthers' playoff hopes rest squarely on the defense being able to keep games close for a Derek Anderson-led offense. This weekend, the Panthers host the Tampa Bay Bucs in Charlotte and Vegas believes that Carolina should keep the Bucs to less than 20 points. Add in the fact that the Bucs have given up 39 sacks on the season (8th highest in the NFL) and the Panthers' defense could be a sneaky Vegas-based play this Sunday.