For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the QBs and WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday. Finally, in the next article, the topic will center on RBs and TEs.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP QUARTERBACKS
Peyton Manning (Primarily GPP; FD: $9700, DK: $8900). After two consecutive sub-200-yard passing games, one might have hoped that Peyton Manning's salary would have dropped further than it has. Because Manning's salary is still at the upper echelon of quarterback salaries, most will be reluctant to roster him this week, particularly in light of the fact that running back C.J. Anderson has taken over the Broncos' offense over the past few weeks; that said, Anderson was sidelined for much of the week with an ankle injury, so it would make sense for Manning to return to his 40+ passing attempt routine this weekend to minimize Anderson's load as Denver heads into the playoffs. Bolstering Manning's case is the fact that Julius Thomas is expected to play for the first time since Week #11 and that Vegas believes the Bronco's opponents, the San Diego Chargers, can keep pace with this offense, which means that the passing game should not be minimized in the second half of the game (as it often is when the Broncos play). [~ 2% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Drew Brees (Primarily GPP; FD: $9200, DK: $8400). Recency bias will keep most people from considering Drew Brees for their DFS rosters this weekend, but he should be squarely in your DFS sights due to his matchup against the Bears. The Chicago Bears are 30th in the league in passing yards allowed and have given up more passing touchdowns than any other team in the league; meanwhile, the Saints' defense is nothing to prevent the Bears from matching scores. Vegas has this game as one of the highest-scoring games of the weekend and it could very well end up in a shootout; if it does, you will want a piece of the game and Drew Brees is a prime candidate for a 4-touchdown performance against this porous secondary. [~ 3.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Ben Roethlisberger (Primarily GPP; FD: $8700, DK: $7900). The Atlanta Falcons lost a fairly close game to Green Bay on Monday night and now travel back home to host the Pittsburgh Steelers on a short week. No team in the league has yielded more passing yards than the Falcons and big Ben Roethlisberger could be in store for a huge game against this secondary, particularly if the Falcons can manage to keep pace with the Steelers on Sunday. Roethlisberger could potentially be a cash game play against this defense, if not for the amount of involvement that Le'Veon Bell is likely to have against the Falcons' equally-dreadful front seven. Nonetheless, Bell often lines up as a receiver and Big Ben has at least 3 other receivers (see below) who are all capable of multi-touchdown performances; these factors make Roethlisberger a great GPP selection this weekend. [~ 9% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Mark Sanchez (Primarily GPP; FD: $7500, DK: $6500). On Thanksgiving, the Cowboys disappointed the football world when they failed to show up against the Eagles in an NFC East showdown; Mark Sanchez' involvement in that game was minimal, as the Eagles led 23-7 at halftime. This weekend, the Cowboys are in a must-win situation and should be more competitive. If the Cowboys do manage to keep the game close, Sanchez should be asked to throw more often than the past two weeks, where gamescript (Dallas) and the opposing defense (Seattle) did not afford him the opportunity to do so. Prior to those games, Sanchez had three consecutive 300-passing yard performances and it would seem that the Cowboys' 25th ranked passing defense will put up little resistance to whatever the Eagles want to do through the air. [~ 4.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
CASH GAME QUARTERBACKS
Andrew Luck (Cash and GPP format; FD: $10,100, DK: $9300). Andrew Luck is averaging ~ 330 yards passing over the course of the season and gets a prime matchup at home against the Houston Texans, who are the league's 5th worst passing defense (passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed). While Reggie Wayne has been struggling, the Colts have been utlilizing rookie WR Donte Moncrief more often recently and he is complemented by a bevy of quality receiving options in the form of T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener, and Dwayne Allen (not to mention pass-catching RB Daniel Herron). Luck is the most consistent quarterback in the game today and is almost assured for 20-25 fantasy points, if you can afford to roster him without crippling your DFS rosters at other positions. [~ 3.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Johnny Manziel (Cash and GPP format; FD: $6700, DK: $5900). The time has come (unfortunately). While I, personally, cannot stomach the pomp and circumstance that surrounds Johnny Manziel and I also believe that he does not project to be a good NFL quarterback, I cannot ignore the fact that Manziel's salary is too low for his expected production this weekend. In limited NFL action, Manziel has been the beneficiary of multiple designed run plays by the Browns' coaching staff, which is fantasy gold for quarterbacks because it equates to guaranteed points. Further supporting Manziel's cause: When the Bengals have faced running quarterbacks this season, they have performed miserably (Cam Newton, 17 rushes, 107 yards and a TD; Jake Locker, 6 rushes, 50 yards). Johnny Football also has the benefit of a healthy Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon, who should provide him with both possession and deep threats in the passing game. At his salary, Manziel needs only 200 yards passing, 40 yards rushing, and a touchdown (passing or rushing) to reach value for cash games, making him a no-brainer this Sunday for that format. [~ 14% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Derek Anderson (Cash only; FD: $5000, DK: $5000). Just two weeks ago, Ryan Fitzpatrick faced the Tennessee Titans as a minimum-priced quarterback and he responded by throwing six touchdowns. This week's bargain quarterback is Derek Anderson and he will NOT throw six touchdown passes; he will, however, almost assuredly reach value for his salary because he needs only 200 yards passing and a single touchdown to reach value. Anderson replaces Cam Newton, who was injured in a freak vehicle accident earlier this week and will miss at least one more game due to injuries sustained therein. While Anderson's upside is limited, it would seem that a 12-15 fantasy point performance is entirely reasonable against the league's 24th ranked passing defense (yards allowed) that has given up 25 passing touchdowns on the season. [~ 16% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
GPP WIDE RECEIVERS
Antonio Brown (Primarily GPP; FD: $9100, DK: $8700), Martavis Bryant (GPP only; FD: $6800, DK: $4800), and Markus Wheaton (GPP only; FD: $5300, DK: $3000). The Steeler's receivers are all in play this weekend; Antonio Brown is the obvious play (and potential cash game play), but he will be the highest-owned player of the bunch, so he is the least attractive for GPP purposes, although he should not be ignored. Over the past few weeks, Markus Wheaton has begun to out-snap Martavis Bryant and Wheaton's salary is the lowest of the bunch because he has not scored a touchdown since the beginning of November; Bryant is the big-play receiver who can score a 90-yard touchdown at any given moment, as evidenced last week against the Bengals. My ordered preference: Wheaton, Brown, Bryant...although all are viable options. [Brown = ~ 18% owned, Bryant = ~ 12% owned, Wheaton = < 1% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Demaryius Thomas (Primarily GPP; FD: $9000, DK: $8300) and Emmanuel Sanders (GPP only; FD: $8600, DK: $7500). Like Peyton Manning, the Broncos' receivers have burned a lot of DFS rosters over the past few weeks and that will be enough to keep both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders on the low side of ownership this Sunday. The Broncos are projected to score nearly four touchdowns and are averaging nearly 30 points per game on the season, which argues that both of these receivers should be in play. Thomas draws the better matchup against Chargers' CB Shareece Wright, who will be outclassed by Thomas; Sanders has not scored a touchdown in nearly a month and draws CB Brandon Flowers, who gave up 2 touchdowns in coverage a week ago against the Patriots. With C.J. Anderson slowed by an injury, it would not be surprising to see Peyton throw 40+ times in this matchup, which could result in a huge game for the entire Broncos' personnel. [Thomas = ~ 2% owned, Sanders = ~ 4% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Dez Bryant (Primarily GPP; FD: $8500, DK: $7900). In the Thanksgiving edition of "Tips & Picks," Dez Bryant was a 4-star play and he disappointed anybody who followed that guidance...particularly given the gamescript and matchups facing Bryant that afternoon. Nonetheless, Bryant makes another appearance here this week for all the same reasons: His matchup and the gamescript are both squarely in his favor. Providing Jason Garrett and the Cowboys' OC Bill Callahan exploit the matchup (Dez versus Cary Williams), there is no reason that Dez could not finish this game with 10 catches, 150 yards receiving, and multiple scores against this porous Eagles' secondary. Given the game's shootout potential, Bryant could potentially be in store for his biggest game of the season at a price that is lower than receivers with similar upside. [~ 7% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Jeremy Maclin (Primarily GPP; FD: $8000, DK: $6100). Maclin is a borderline cash game play this week, but has GPP upside due to his matchup against CB Brandon Carr, who is allowing an opposing QB rating of 121.7 when passes are thrown in his direction; Carr has allowed the 4th most yards (and touchdowns) to opposing wide receivers in coverage on the season. Meanwhile, Maclin is averaging nearly 10 targets per game, but will be underowned due to a few quiet games over the past few weeks. No receiver has higher upside, yet Maclin's salary, particularly on DraftKings, is ridiculously low given his fantasy potential; as the cornerstone of the Eagles' passing game, he must be considered for your GPP lineups this weekend. [~ 5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Steve Smith (Primarily GPP; FD: $6800, DK: $4800). Despite Torrey Smith practicing on Friday and being listed as 'probable' on the Ravens' injury report, insiders are stating that Torrey Smith has no chance of being productive on Sunday due to his ankle injury; Steve Smith stands to benefit from Torrey Smith's demise, as he received 11 targets last week when Torrey Smith was injured. The matchup against Jacksonville is prime because the Jags field the league's 28th ranked passing defense (per ProFootbalFocus) and the Ravens team total is the highest on the NFL game slate this weekend. At a modest price point, Steve Smith deserves your attention for GPP rosters. [~ 11% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
CASH GAME WIDE RECEIVERS
Odell Beckham (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8600, DK: $8400). ProFootballFocus' worst-rated pass coverage defense against the hottest wide receiver in all of football? Beckham is the sparkle in Eli Manning's eyes these days, as evidenced by him averaging over 11 targets per game since he was named a full-fledged starter back in Week #9. Washington's terrible cornerbacks (David Amerson and Bashaud Breeland) have no chance of slowing down ODB this weekend at the Meadowlands, particularly in light of the fact that the Redskins are sneaky tough against the run, which means that the Giants will look to move the sticks through the air. Even at the elevated price, Beckham looks to be a solid cash game play due to his matchup and heavy involvement in the Giants' offense. [~ 26% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Alshon Jeffery (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8400, DK: $8200). After Brandon Marshall went down to an injury last Thursday night against the Cowboys, Alshon Jeffery became the undisputed WR1 in the Bears' offense. Somewhat surprisingly, Jeffery is actually leading the Bears in targets in 2014--he is averaging 8.9 targets per game, which is more than Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett. This Sunday, Jeffery will line up against some of the worst cornerbacks in the league when the Bears play the Saints; only the Redskins have a worse pass coverage unit (ProFootballFocus ratings) and only three other teams allow more passing yardage on the season. Given the absence of Marshall, Jeffery's already substantial workload should see an uptick in a Monday night game that could become a shootout; this has all the signs of a solid performance from Alshon Jeffery. [~ 14% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Roddy White (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7000, DK: $5800). Julio Jones did not practice this week after injuring his hip and is listed as 'questionable' headed into Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers; generally, when players do not practice, they do not play. Assuming Julio Jones does not suit up on Sunday, Roddy White makes a solid cash game play because he should get plenty of targets in a game that could see upwards of 50 points scored between two strong offenses. Julio Jones has been averaging 13 passes per game over the past five games and those targets will be redistributed between White and Harry Douglas, with White receiving the high-value redzone targets due to his size and establish rapport with QB Matt Ryan. With Roddy White already averaging 8.5 targets per game, it would not be surprising to see him get 12+ targets in this one with several redzone opportunities; at his price point, Roddy needs 14-16 fantasy points to reach value for cash games, which is entirely reasonable given that type of opportunity in this particular game. [~ 3.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Kenny Stills (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6100, DK: $5700). Last week, the Saints burned everybody and anybody who rostered their players, which would be enough to scare most people away from rostering them again this week. Kenny Stills, however, remains a cash game play because his matchup is solid, his price is cheap, and the Bears-Saints game could become an absolute fireworks display. No team in the NFL has given up more passing touchdowns than the Chicago Bears and Kenny Stills will line up against from both Kyle Fuller and Tim Jennings, who have been embarrassed by multiple receivers this season. Stills' modest pricetag keeps him in play for cash games because he needs only 6 receptions and 100 yards receiving to reach value...if he manages a touchdown (in a game where New Orleans is projected to score four), he will surpass value. [~ 15% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Marqise Lee (Cash only; FD: $5800, DK: $3600). While everybody else is piling on *Marquess Wilson as their bargain cash game wide receiver this week, I will likely be on Jags' rookie Marqise Lee (*Wilson is an understandable selection, but he is no better than the 4th option in the Bears' offense, which tempers my enthusiasm for him in cash games). Lee is steadily gaining momentum and attention in the Jacksonville offense, as evidenced by increased snaps and targets for four consecutive weeks now. Earlier this week, the Jags announced that RB Denard Robinson would be placed on the IR, which means that they will resort to a committee of Toby Gerhart, Storm Johnson, and Jordan Todman, none of whom will do anything against the Ravens' formidable front seven; the Ravens, however, can be beaten through the air and all logic would suggest that the Jags will try to air it out against the Ravens' cornerbacks who have allowed the second most passing yardage in the league in 2014. At a minimal salary, Lee needs only 11 fantasy points to reach value, which is a handful of receptions and 80 yards receiving, something he has done in two out of three games since Allen Robinson went on the IR back in Week #11. [~ 2.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
