For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the RBs and TEs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP TIGHT ENDS
Julius Thomas (Primarily GPP; FD: $6300, DK: $5100). After missing three weeks with an ankle injury, Julius Thomas looks to make his triumphant return to the field on Sunday against the San Diego Chargers; the matchup does not look optimal, as San Diego rates amongst the league leaders in defending the tight end position, but Rob Gronkowski amassed 8/87/1 just a week ago. Since Thomas has been sidelined, Peyton Manning is averaging 'only' 200-yards passing and 2 touchdowns per game; C.J. Anderson has shouldered a lot of the offensive load in Denver during that span, but Anderson is hobbled headed into this matchup and we might see Peyton take control and look to his receiving crew to bring home the victory. Thomas is at one of the lowest salaries that he has been offered all season and is a true GPP play due to his boom-or-bust potential (40% of games with multiple touchdowns). [~ 3.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Martellus Bennett (Primarily GPP; FD: $6200, DK: $5900). With Brandon Marshall recently placed on the IR, all Chicago receivers should see a significant uptick in opportunity in the Bears' offense. After Marshall left the game on Thanksgiving, Bennett was heavily-targeted as evidenced by his season-high 15 targets against the Cowboys. In a Monday night showdown against the New Orleans Saints, Bennett could be in store for similar opportunity, particularly if the game goes into shootout mode; over the past two weeks, the Saints have allowed opposing tight ends an average of 9 receptions, 77 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns. With Marshall gone, Bennett becomes the de facto redzone target for Jay Cutler and possesses multiple touchdown upside on a team that is projected to score nearly 4 touchdowns. [~ 15.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Antonio Gates (Primarily GPP; FD: $5500, DK: $4500). Due to the strength of their offense, the Denver Broncos' defense is often overshadowed; the fact is that the Broncos boast the league's 2nd best rush defense and no team allows less passing yardage per attempt than the Broncos. If the Broncos' defense has a weakness, it is in defending the tight end position; the Broncos have allowed 7 passing touchdowns to opposing tight ends in 2014, including 7 different tight ends with > 50 yards receiving. While Keenan Allen is struggling to separate himself from the Broncos' All-Pro corners, Antonio Gates should have no problems getting open against the Broncos' linebacking corps; when these same teams met back in Week #8, Gates finished with 5 catches for 54 yards and 2 touchdowns. It would not be surprising to see a similar outcome on Sunday. [~ 8% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
CASH GAME TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7600, DK: $7600). No team has generated a 60-receiving yard performance from a tight end against the Miami Dolphins this year, which would argue that Rob Gronkowski's matchup this weekend is worrisome. However, when Gronk is healthy, there is no defense that contain him; in four of the past five weeks, Gronk has received at least 10 targets and he has finished with at least 70-yards receiving in each of those games. Back in Week #1, Gronk played in less than 50% of the Pats' offensive snaps against this same Dolphins' team and he still finished with 4/40/1...now that he is playing almost 100% of the snaps, he is the undisputed #1 TE in all of football for DFS purposes. [~ 8.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Delanie Walker (Primarily cash format; FD: $5300, DK: $4400). With Justin Hunter on the IR and Kendall Wright on the doubtful side of questionable going into Sunday's matchup against the NY Jets, Delanie Walker would appear to be the Titans' primary receiver this weekend. With a similar selection of receivers last week, Zach Mettenberger looked to Walker on 10 different occasions, but Walker finished the day with a pedestrian 4/27/0 statline. This week's opponents, the Jets, have allowed 12 passing touchdowns to the tight end position in 2014, including three multi-touchdown games. With almost no other viable receiving options in the passing game, expect Mettenberger to target Walker > 10 times again this week, which should result in sufficient fantasy goodness to pay off his modest salary. [~ 7.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
GPP RUNNING BACKS
Jamaal Charles (Primarily GPP; FD: $9200, DK: $8700). Never forget. A year ago this week, Jamaal Charles cost me the $1 million first prize in the now-defunct DraftStreet Fantasy Football Championship; I led the entire day until Jamaal Charles absolutely destroyed the Oakland Raiders' defense and scored FIVE touchdowns (I finished 4th and 8th, for the record). Yes...I'm still salty. Exactly one year later, Charles has the same matchup against the Raiders, who are the league's 9th worst rushing defense (4.1 yards per carry, 127.9 rushing yards per game); the Raiders have allowed three different running backs to score multiple touchdowns this season and considering that Kansas City has yet to throw a passing touchdown to a wide receiver, it would appear that Jamaal Charles is a prime candidate for multiple scores. He is expensive and there are concerns about his health headed into the weekend or else he would be listed as a cash game play. [~ 3.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Mark Ingram (Primarily GPP; FD: $7400, DK: $6000). The Saints' failure to show up against the Panthers last week resulted in one of Mark Ingram's worst fantasy performances of the season; when the Saints fell behind early, Ingram was all but eliminated in favor of Pierre Thomas and Traveris Cadet, who are both more involved in the passing game. The matchup is sound--the Bears are allowing 4.3 yards per carry and have given up more than 70 fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past two weeks. With a projected team total of 28.5-points, the Saints should have plenty of scoring opportunities for their scorers and Ingram certainly will get his chances. He will be underowned, however, because most people will conclude that Khiry Robinson's return last week, not the overall gamescript, affected Ingram's performance; at his lowest price point in over two months, Ingram has two-touchdown upside at a significant value. [~ 4.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Fred Jackson (Primarily GPP; FD: $6600, DK: $5200). As the Buffalo Bills were trying to keep pace with the Broncos' offense last week, Fred Jackson somehow accumulated 10 targets in the passing game due to dump offs from Kyle Orton. The Bills could be facing a similar gamescript this weekend against the league's top-scoring offense, the Green Bay Packers; if the Bills fall behind, Jackson could see another 8+ target Sunday plus a dozen carries, including those around the goalline. If the Bills can keep the close, as Vegas is projecting, Jackson could conceivably touch the ball 20+ times against a rush defense that is yielding 4.4 yards per carry (28th in NFL) and is ProFootballFocus' 29th ranked run defense. Since returning from a groin injury in Week #10, Jackson's offensive snaps have increased every week--he saw 76% of the Bills' offensive snaps last week (versus 17% for Bryce Brown and 8.5% for Anthony Dixon), which lessens concerns about losing carries to other backs. To reach value for GPP format, Jackson needs ~ 20 fantasy points, which is entirely reasonable if he can find the endzone just once on Sunday. [~ 3.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Steven Jackson (Primarily GPP; FD: $6600, DK: $3800). Everything is lining up for a big day for Steven Jackson against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. First, Jackson continues to be heavily-used by the Falcons; over the previous six games, Jackson is playing in ~50% of the Falcons' offensive snaps and he has 18 or more touches in five of those six games. Next, it is looking more and more like Julio Jones will not play on Sunday, which means that his 12-15 touches will be redistributed to the other Falcons' skill players, not to mention the redzone looks that Jones generally sees. Likewise, Jackson also gets a nice matchup against the Steelers, who are yielding 4.4 yards per carry (28th in NFL). Lastly, everybody in DFS circles is going to be on Roddy White and/or Harry Douglas, assuming Julio is announced as inactive, which means that Jackson will be far too low owned, particularly on DraftKings, where his salary is ridiculously cheap. [~ 1.5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
LeGarrette Blount (Primarily GPP; FD: $6500, DK: $4400). Bill Belichick is known for exploiting matchups on offense and forcing opposing defenses to deal with mismatches of talent. This Sunday, while everybody is chasing the solid numbers that Tom Brady has been producing with his receivers (Edelman, LaFell, and Gronkowski), it could be a savvy GPP more to roll with LeGarrette Blount. Since signing with the Pats nearly a month ago, Blount has seen increased usage in every game, including 22 touches last week against the Chargers. His opponent, the Miami Dolphins, are thought to have a strong defense, but recent results would argue against that premise; the Dolphins have given up ~ 175 rushing yards (5.8 yards per carry) to opposing running backs over the past three weeks. I fully expect Belichick to test the mettle of the Dolphins' front seven to determine if Blount can enjoy similar success; if he can, Blount could be in store for a huge day (ask Jonas Gray what happens when Belichick senses a mismatch). [~ 7% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
CASH GAME RUNNING BACKS
Le'Veon Bell (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9600, DK: $9600). Since releasing LeGarrette Blount nearly a month ago, Le'Veon Bell has had zero competition for touches out of the Steelers' backfield; he is averaging 32 touches per game over that span, including 5 touchdowns. This Sunday, Bell gets the prime matchup of the week against the Falcons, who have given up more rushing touchdowns than any other team in the league. Bell's strength in cash games is that he will not be eliminated due to game script--if the Steelers are winning, they will feed him the ball to run clock...if the Steelers are losing, Bell is targeted in the passing game (71 receptions on the season). Bell's salary is high, but he is a great anchor for cash games this weekend. [~ 30% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Justin Forsett (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7700, DK: $7400). The league's best run blocking offense (Baltimore) versus one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL? This could get ugly in Baltimore on Sunday and Justin Forsett should be the primary beneficiary of the weekend's best rushing matchup. Forsett has established himself as the feature back in Baltimore (~ 21 touches per game over the past four games) and he has responded by scoring 5 touchdowns over the past month. The Ravens are the biggest favorites on the board on Sunday and are also the team with the highest team total, both of which heavily weigh in Forsett's favor for DFS games. At a reasonable salary, Justin Forsett's floor seems to be 20/80/1 in this matchup, but his ceiling could be double those numbers. [~ 20% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Alfred Morris (Cash only; FD: $7000, DK: $5000). Alf Morris is admittedly not the type of running back that immediately comes to mind when considering cash game running backs for your DFS rosters; however, his circumstances this week put him into that category. Until last week's debacle against the Rams, Morris had been averaging 20 touches per game over the previous six games, including several receptions each game. If Morris can manage 20 touches gainst the NY Giants' 30th ranked rush defense (yards per game), he should be in a great position to score the 14 fantasy points needed for him to reach value on Sunday. Further solidifying Morris' appearance here is that Roy Helu will not play on Sunday, which means that Morris should be involved on third downs, where he is ordinarily on the sidelines. With Helu not suiting up, DeSean Jackson highly questionable, and questions abound about the quarterback, Morris would seem to be the only logical person to score at least one of the three touchdowns projected for the Redskins on Sunday. [~ 3% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Chris Ivory (Cash only; FD: $5200, DK: $4200). If you want to save salary for some extravagant spending elsewhere on your cash rosters, you might consider Chris Ivory this weekend against the Tennessee Titans. With Geno Smith running the offense, Rex Ryan has gotten extremely run-heavy (91 rushes versus 41 passes since Smith was named the starter); this means that, despite splitting carries with Chris Johnson, Chris Ivory has been fairly well involved in the Jets' offense recently. While having a piece of the Jets' offense is not necessarily exciting for DFS purposes, Ivory's salary is low enough that he needs only ~ 10-12 fantasy points to reach value for your cash games. Ivory should get 15-20 carries against this dreadul Titans' front seven that is ProFootballFocus' absolute worst-rated run defense, not to mention the league's worst statistical rush defense (141.5 yards per game). Other touts have been suggesting Chris Johnson as a possible play, but I prefer Ivory because he is more consistent and he gets most of the goalline carries. [~ 6% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
For last-minute advice, player decisions, and injury news on Sunday morning, tune into the “NFL Gameday” webcast at 11:30 AM (EST) on RotoGrinders Live, where John “tipandpick” Lee, Al “Al_Smizzle” Zeidenfeld, and Dan “DB730” Back will analyze all NFL games every week. You can find the webcast at: https://rotogrinders.com/live. All other daily fantasy questions can be directed to John’s Twitter page at: https://twitter.com/tipandpick
