Photo: Ed Mulholland, USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space.  FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season.  Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the game script for Thursday Night Football, while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend.  The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs.  Let’s dive in…

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMESCRIPT

After a disappointing Thanksgiving loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the 8-4 Dallas Cowboys travel to Chicago to try to salvage their playoff hopes against the 5-7 Bears.  The Cowboys have been impressive on the road this season; in fact, they are undefeated, boasting a 5-0 road record entering this game.  Meanwhile, the Bears have had a rough season due to a poor defense, combined with an offense that has been unable to live up to its level of talent.  Both teams boast a lot of talent on offense, but have failed to do much on defense, which has led to a high Vegas total of 52 points on the game.  The Cowboys are slight road favorites (-3) and this one should have plenty of fantasy implications, so let’s take a deeper look…

The Cowboys are ranked 22^nd against the rush (total yards per game) and are allowing a hefty 4.5 yards per carry on the season.  When defending the pass, Dallas has not been markedly better—they are ranked 20^th in the league, allowing 244.5 yards per game.  Collectively, these data indicate that the Bears should have few troubles moving the ball against Dallas through both phases of the offense.  The Bear with the highest floor is likely Matt Forte; Forte should have no problems running against this depleted Dallas front seven.  In Week #14 of last season against this same defense, Forte accumulated 175 all-purpose yards, 7 receptions, and a touchdown…it would not be surprising to see a similar performance by Forte this Thursday night.

The Bears’ passing game has been inconsistent in 2014.  Jay Cutler has three sub-200 yard passing games and three 300+ yard passing games with multiple pedestrian performances interspersed therein.  To his credit, Cutler has had to deal with injuries to his receiving corps for most of the season.  Alshon Jeffery has been battling hamstring issues while Brandon Marshall has had a recurring ankle injury for much of the season; even TE Martellus Bennett has been slowed by a foot injury recently.  All of this said, it appears that all receivers are slated to suit up against the Cowboys on Thursday night.  Each has upside against the Dallas secondary and should be given consideration for your DFS rosters.

For the Cowboys’ offense, you should be giving serious consideration to saddling up DeMarco Murray for your cash games and even tournament rosters.  Murray has not touched the ball less than 23 times in any game this season and while the Bears are ranked 10^th against the rush (total yards per game), the Cowboys will be looking to ride Murray to dominate the time of possession, a recipe that led them to start the season, 6-1.  As opposed to years’ past, the Cowboys have not gotten away from the run in any game, so Murray would appear to be one of the week’s best cash game options, providing his salary does not cripple your roster elsewhere.

Certainly, the Cowboys’ passing game could have a huge night against the Bears, who have given up more passing touchdowns than any other team in the NFL; however, the Dallas coaching staff has proven that they will run first and pass second, which limits excitement about rostering Tony Romo and Dez Bryant in DFS format.  Both Romo and Bryant have immense upside in this matchup, but there is some risk in rostering either of them in cash game format, particularly considering their salaries…proceed with caution.

Collectively, the entire Thursday night game looks to be chock-full of fantasy goodness.  The key to taking advantage of it for DFS purposes will be to roster only those players who give you a leg-up on the opposition headed into the Sunday games; rostering a player at 30+% owned in GPP’s rarely works out well, unless you are certain that play will surpass GPP value.  Enjoy the game, but do not overexpose yourself to it…there are plenty of options remaining on Sunday. 

Predicted Score:  Chicago 28, Dallas 27.

Here are my rated selections for both cash games & GPPs:

4-stars:  DeMarco Murray (DK @ $8800, FD @ $8800)

3-stars:  Matt Forte (DK @ $8700, FD @ $9100)

2-stars:  Tony Romo (DK @ $7500, FD @ $8300), Brandon Marshall (DK @ $6500, FD @ $7800), Dez Bryant (DK @ $7100, FD @ $8600)

1-star:  Jay Cutler (DK @ $7200, FD @ $8300), Alshon Jeffery (DK @ $7000, FD @ $8400)

KICKERS

Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend.  If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team.  With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):

Mason Crosby, GB ($5000 versus Atlanta):  The kicker on the team that Vegas oddsmakers project to score more than any other team on the entire NFL slate is only $5000.  If the Packers score 35 points, as Vegas projects, Crosby is guaranteed 5 extra points...if they balk just once in Atlanta territory, a Crosby field goal should get him to reach value at his salary.

Phil Dawson, SF ($4800 versus Oakland):  The 49ers continue to struggle in the redzone, as evidenced by their pathetic 38.9% touchdown scoring percentage (worst in the NFL).  Against the lowly Oakland Raiders, however, the Niners should be able to move the ball somewhat easily...if they stumble in the redzone, Dawson should stand to be the beneficiary and could get his share of field goal opportunities in a game where they will not likely need too many touchdowns to be victorious.

Shayne Graham ($4500 versus Carolina):  The bargin kicker of the week is Shayne Graham, whose site minimum salary is simply too cheap for his circumstances against the Panthers.  The Saints are projected as Vegas' second-highest scoring team on the weekend (30 total points) and they are playing at home (Superdome), which means that weather will not be a factor.  For cash games, Graham is a great selection and will be heavily-owend...for GPP's, it might make sense to choose somebody else with high-upside because Graham will be heavily-owned at this price point. 

TEAM DEFENSES

Texans (versus Jaguars):   (FD: $5300, DK: $3700).  The Texans' J.J Watt is a man amongst boys right now--he continues to wreak havoc every week and should be given serious consideration for the league MVP, given his accomplishments on both sides of the ball.  Last week, he knocked Zach Mettenberger out of the game (shoulder); this week, he gets another rookie QB in the form of Blake Bortles, who has proven that he can be easily rattled (9 touchdowns versus 15 interceptions).  Despite the game being played in Jacksonville, oddsmakers do not see the Jags scoring much more than 18-points, which means that they agree this is not a good spot for the Jags' offense and could be a potentially big day for the Texans' defense.

Lions (versus Tampa Bay):   (FD: $5300, DK: $3400).  The Detroit Lions have one of the most underrated defenses in the entire league.  They rank 1st against the run in total yards allowed per game, which should all but eliminate Doug Martin from this game; meanwhile, they have been solid against the pass (12th in the NFL) and have almost as many interceptions (15) as touchdowns allowed (16) on the season.  Supporting the notion that the Lions are a good DFS play is the fact that Vegas does not project much more than two touchdowns for the visiting Bucs.

Broncos (versus Buffalo):   (FD: $4700, DK: $2700).  If you want to save salary at the team defense position this week, the Denver Broncos could represent the value you are seeking.  They host the Buffalo Bills, who do not match up well against the Broncos, from a personnel perspective.  The Broncos are stifling against the run, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry and 72.7 yards per game on the ground, which should force the Bills to put their fate in the hands of Kyle Orton to compete with the Broncos' offense.  Orton's best receiver, Sammy Watkins, will match up against All-Pro CB Aqib Talib, which means that the entire Bills' offense will be relying on the likes of Robert Woods and Scott Chandler to keep pace with Peyton and company.  While Kyle Orton has been better than most would have expected, this is not a plus matchup for him or the Bills...expect a bit of a regression from him this weekend.  At a fair salary, the Broncos offer as much upside as any team defense on the NFL slate this weekend.

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