Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Away | Team Total | Game Total | Running Game | Passing Game | Team Defense |
Green Bay | Atlanta | -13 | 34.5 | 56 | +++ | +++ | |
New Orleans | Carolina | -10.5 | 30 | 49.5 | +++ | +++ | |
Denver | Buffalo | -10 | 28.75 | 47.5 | ++ | ++ | + |
Dallas | Chicago | -3.5 | 27.25 | 51 | + | + | |
New England | San Diego | -3.5 | 27 | 50.5 | + | + | |
Indianapolis | Cleveland | -3.5 | 26.75 | 50 | + | + | |
Detroit | Tampa Bay | -10 | 25.75 | 41.5 | ++ | + | +++ |
Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | -3 | 25 | 47 | |||
Philadelphia | Seattle | -1 | 24.75 | 48.5 | |||
San Francisco | Oakland | -8 | 24.25 | 40.5 | |||
Seattle | Philadelphia | 1 | 23.75 | 48.5 | ++ | ||
Chicago | Dallas | 3.5 | 23.75 | 51 | |||
Miami | Baltimore | -2.5 | 23.75 | 45 | |||
Houston | Jacksonville | -5 | 23.5 | 42 | + | ||
St. Louis | Washington | -2.5 | 23.5 | 44.5 | |||
San Diego | New England | 3.5 | 23.5 | 50.5 | |||
Cleveland | Indianapolis | 3.5 | 23.25 | 50 | |||
Minnesota | NY Jets | -6 | 23.25 | 40.5 | ++ | ||
NY Giants | Tennessee | 0 | 22.75 | 45.5 | |||
Tennessee | NY Giants | 0 | 22.75 | 45.5 | |||
Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | 3 | 22 | 47 | |||
Atlanta | Green Bay | 13 | 21.5 | 56 | + | ||
Baltimore | Miami | 2.5 | 21.25 | 45 | |||
Washington | St. Louis | 2.5 | 21 | 44.5 | |||
Arizona | Kansas City | -1 | 20.75 | 40.5 | |||
Kansas City | Arizona | 1 | 19.75 | 40.5 | |||
Carolina | New Orleans | 10.5 | 19.5 | 49.5 | + | ||
Buffalo | Denver | 10 | 18.75 | 47.5 | + | ||
Jacksonville | Houston | 5 | 18.5 | 42 | |||
NY Jets | Minnesota | 6 | 17.25 | 40.5 | |||
Oakland | San Francisco | 8 | 16.25 | 40.5 | |||
Tampa Bay | Detroit | 10 | 15.75 | 41.5 | + |
THREE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Green Bay (versus Atlanta): Aaron Rodgers trails only Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck in passing touchdowns this season and he gets a prime matchup against the league's worst passing defense, the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night in Lambeau Field. The smart guys in Vegas think that Green Bay is in for a huge night against the Falcons, projecting the Packers to score nearly 5 touchdowns, which is the highest team total on the 16-game slate this week.
- New Orleans (versus Carolina): Against the Steelers last week, Drew Brees finally found himself and threw 5 touchdown passes without a single target to Jimmy Graham. This week, he returns home to face the Panthers, whose starting cornerbacks, Melvin White and Antoine Cason, are allowing a 129.5 and 122.6 opposing quarterback rating, respectively. With a projected team total of ~ 30 points, Brees could be in store for another nice Sunday.
RUNNING GAME
- Green Bay (versus Atlanta): After averaging ~ 16 touches per game for most of the season, Eddie Lacy has seen back-to-back games with 20+ touches. Vegas projects the Packers to be leading big (13-point favorites), which means that Lacy should see ample carries in the second half against the Falcons, who have given up more rushing touchdowns than any other team in the NFL.
- New Orleans (versus Carolina): When the gamescript has dictated it, the Saints have leaned heavily on Mark Ingram this season. Since Week #8, Ingram has 25+ touches in every game, except in Week #12 against a solid Ravens' front seven, where the Saints were trailing for most of the game; as 10.5-point favorites, Ingram should get plenty of opportunities against a Panthers' defense that is ranked 23rd in the league against the rush, allowing 4.4 yards per carry.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Detroit (versus Tampa Bay): The Bucs travel to Detroit to take on the Lions, who are giving up less points per game than any team in the league; meanwhile, Tampa Bay is only scoring 18.3 points per game, which would indicate that Vegas' team total of 15.75 points for the Bucs is reasonable. Detroit should be a plus play, based on the matchup and Vegas' odds.
TWO STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Denver (versus Buffalo): The matchup for the Broncos' passing game this week does not look great on paper because the Bills have only allowed two 300-yard passers on the entire season, but Peyton Manning is matchup-proof. After playing 4 of their last 5 on the road, the Broncos return home and Vegas believes they will not miss a beat, as evidenced by their ~ 29-point team total; if the price is right on Peyton, do not fear the less-than-optimal matchup.
RUNNING GAME
- Denver (versus Buffalo): As a 10-point favorite with a 29-point projected team total and 60 total touches over the past two games, C.J. Anderson could be in store for another big day at Mile High Stadium this week. The matchup may not appear to be optimal, but the gamescript should play to Anderson's favor, which should keep him on your fantasy radar.
- Detroit (versus Tampa Bay): The Lions are also 10-point favorites this week against the Tampa Bay Bucs, which means that they should be playing with a lead in the second half of the game. Playing with a large lead should benefit Joique Bell the most; however, Reggie Bush returns from his injury this week, which means there will be a three-way split of touches out of the backfield. Despite the Vegas total, this one is less attractive given the makeup of the Lions' backfield.
TEAM DEFENSE
- San Francisco (versus Oakland): After upsetting the Chiefs in Week #12, the Raiders followed up their win with a massive failure against the Rams in St. Louis, 52-0. This Sunday, the Raiders will play a far tougher defense in the form of the 49ers; expect Derek Carr to continue to struggle against this defense. Vegas agrees--they have the Raiders slated to score ~ 16 points.
- Minnesota (versus NY Jets): Under Geno Smith, the Jets' offense scares nobody; the Jets have scored 16 total points since Smith replaced Michael Vick as the starting quarterback just a few weeks ago. This week, the Vikings get the pleasure of hosting the Jets and Vegas sees more of the same...the Jets are projected to score only ~ 17 points.
ONE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Dallas (versus Chicago): No team has given up more passing touchdowns than the Chicago Bears this season (27); likewise, the Bears are ranked 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (270.7). Enter Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys, who disappointed last week in their NFC East matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, where they lost 33-10 at home. Vegas thinks this is a good rebound spot for the Cowboys, as evidenced by their nearly 4 touchdown team total, so do not be afraid to fire up Tony Romo this week.
- New England (versus San Diego): The Patriots take a cross-country trip to face off against the San Diego Chargers on Sunday night and oddsmakers believe they should have no trouble scoring. While the Chargers' passing defense has been sound, they have given up 2.5-times more touchdowns through the air than they have on the ground--that should bode well for Tom Brady and his receivers this Sunday.
- Indianapolis (versus Cleveland): After a 5-touchdown performance against the Redskins last week, Andrew Luck and the Colts travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns. Joe Haden will likely match up with T.Y. Hilton, but Luck will have plenty of other options in Reggie Wayne, Donte Moncrief, and the return of Dwayne Allen, so Vegas is probably not far off the mark with their projected 27 point team total.
- Detroit (versus Tampa Bay): After multiple lackluster games, Matthew Stafford bounced back on Thanksgiving with a 390-yard, 2-touchdown performance against the Chicago Bears. He will look to keep his momentum rolling against the league's 21st-ranked passing defense on Sunday and Vegas thinks it can be done (26-point team total).
- Atlanta (versus Green Bay): A sneaky DFS play this week will be the Atlanta Falcons' passing game. When handicapping this game, most people will side with the Packers, but the savvy move might be to give Matt Ryan and Julio Jones a second look; the gamescript appears to be heavily in their favor (13-point underdogs on the road), but they are still slated to score at least 3 touchdowns. If the salaries are reasonable, do not ignore Matt Ryan and his receiving corps.
- Carolina (versus New Orleans): Cam Newton and the Panthers are 10-point underdogs against the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans this weekend. The gamescript dictates that Newton should be forced to throw early in this one, which means that both he and rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin could be decent DFS plays due to their likely workloads.
- Buffalo (versus Denver): The Bills are only projected to score ~18 points against the Broncos on Sunday, but those points will almost assuredly come throught the air because the Broncos are stout against the run (3.4 yards per carry) and have only given up 7 rushing touchdowns on the entire season. With Aqib Talib shadowing Sammy Watkins, it might make sense to roster a Kyle Orton-Robert Woods stack in GPP's to take advantage of their low salaries and promising gamescript.
- Tampa Bay (versus Detroit): Tampa Bay travels to Detroit to play the Lions, who are coming off a long week, in a game that Vegas thinks will be easily won by the Lions. If Detroit jumps out to an early lead, Josh McCown could be asked to throw the ball often, which could benefit his big receivers, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson; given the strength of the Lions' defense, it would appear that the Bucs' offensive upside is limited, but they are worth a look in GPP formats.
RUNNING GAME
- Dallas (versus Chicago): DeMarco Murray has touched the ball at least 23 times in every game this season. Every. Game. This. Season. The Bears have been respectable against the run this season, allowing only 105.5 yards per game on the ground, but Dallas will assuredly ask Murray to carry the weight of the offense in this one, so he should be given consideration for those of you playing the early DFS game slates this week.
- New England (versus San Diego): The Patriots' running back situation is a mess. Just a few weeks ago, Jonas Gray came out of nowhere to score 4 touchdowns in one night, only to sabbotage his starting role by sleeping in the following Friday and consequently miss practice. Meanwhile, the Pats signed free agent LeGarrette Blount and have been using him more than any other RB in the backfield, including Shane Vereen. If you can guess correctly, rostering a Pats' RB could be a smart play this weekend because they are slated to score nearly 4 touchdowns and should be winning, which means that their running backs have value. Based on recent performance, it would appear to be Blount who is the likely beneficiary.
- Indianapolis (versus Cleveland): Trent Richardson and Dan Herron are in a 50/50 time split in the Colts backfield right now, which makes rostering either one of them a risky proposition. Herron gets the slight edge because he is used more heavily in the passing game, but with a 27-point team total, having a piece of this backfield is not a bad idea.
TEAM DEFENSE
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Denver (versus Buffalo): The Buffalo Bills' team total against the Broncos this weekend is only ~ 18 points, which should put the Broncos' team defense on your DFS radars. The Bills average only 22 points per game over the season and they will have everything working against them in this game: 2nd ranked rush defense, Sammy Watkins matched up against Aqib Talib, and playing at Mile High Stadium. Big advantage to the Broncos.
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Houston (versus Jacksonville): J.J. Watt and the Texans travel to Florida to take on Blake Bortles and his young team on Sunday. Bortles is leading the league in interceptions despite the fact that he throws limitedly in the Jags' offense; with J.J. Watt hot on his tail all afternoon, it would not be surprising to see him throw yet another pick-six and put the Texans' defense near the top of the DFS leaderboards on Sunday.