Photo: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space.  FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season.  Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the QBs and WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.  Finally, in the next article, the topic will center on RBs and TEs. 

Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both).  GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors.  In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

GPP QUARTERBACKS

Drew Brees (Primarily GPP; FD: $9400, DK: $9100).  Drew Brees has now put together two strong consecutive games and will look to make it three against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon.  Last week, the Saints fortunately found themselves in short-field situations often due to turnovers and Brees was efficient, throwing for 5 touchdowns on only 257 passing yards against the Steelers.  Looking at the metrics (passing yards allowed, pass coverage rankings, touchdown/interception numbers, etc.), the Steelers and Panthers are almost identical in every fashion, except for the fact that the Panthers' pass rush is basically non-existent...all of which means that Brees could be in store for another big Sunday this weekend.  At his price point, Brees could be overlooked by most DFS'ers because they will likely want to pay a few hundred dollars more to get Aaron Rodgers, which further enhances Brees' GPP value.

Ryan Tannehill (Primarily GPP; FD: $8600, DK: $7300).  Coming off a disappointing Monday night performance against the NY Jets, nobody is going to want to roster Ryan Tannehill on a short week against the Baltimore Ravens, particularly because his salary does not reflect his poor outing (Week #14 salaries were released prior to Monday night).  The Ravens are actually fairly solid against the run, allowing only 3.6 yards per carry (5th in the NFL) and 86.2 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL), which forces their opponents to go to the air to defeat them; since Jimmy Smith was placed on the IR back in Week #8, the Ravens have given up an average of 330.5 passing yards and 3.3 passing touchdowns per game.  All of this lines up nicely for Tannehill and the Dolphins' receivers and puts them in a good spot to separate your GPP roster from the masses this weekend.

Eli Manning (Primarily GPP; FD: $7300, DK: $6900).  Rashad Jennings still has not practiced this week and the Giants signed RB Chris Ogbonnaya to an undisclosed contract earlier this week, indicating that the Giants are pessimistic about Jennings' chances to play against the uninspired Titans' front seven.  Andre Williams will become the de facto starter in Jennings' absence, but Williams has been disappointing in his rookie season, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry despite ample opportunity.  The lack of running game from the Giants should mandate that Eli Manning throw the ball more often than usual and look to take advantage of the porous Titans' secondary, who have given up back-to-back 300-yard passing games over the past two weeks, including a 6-touchdown slaying at the hands of Ryan Fitzpatrick last week.  Each of the Giants' receivers matchup well against the Titans' poor cornerbacks, meaning that Eli should do whatever he wants to do on Sunday.

Brian Hoyer (GPP only; FD: $6700, DK: $5200).  The Browns could not have chosen a worse weekend to be without a reliable running back; their opponent, the Colts, allow 4.5 yards per carry (30th in NFL) and have given up more rushing touchdowns per attempt than any team in the league.  Ideally, the Browns would like to keep the Colts' offense off the field and milk the clock with Isaiah Crowell, but he is likely 'out' with a hip pointer and his backup, Terrance West, has been disappointing when given the lead back role this season.  If the Colts jump to an early lead in this one, it could force the Browns to abandon their weak running game and look to Brian Hoyer to throw the ball to keep pace.  With Vontae Davis still not practicing, it would appear that the Colts do not have a cornerback who can effectively shutdown Josh Gordon and things could get interesting.  Vegas has tabbed the game total at 50 for this one, so this gamescript is not entirely unreasonable; at his salary, Brian Hoyer could easily reach GPP value (~ 20 fantasy points) by throwing for ~ 300 yards and 2 touchdowns...something that 3 of the last 5 quarterbacks have done when facing the Colts.  

CASH GAME QUARTERBACKS

Aaron Rodgers (Cash and GPP format; FD: $10,400, DK: $9800).  There are only two recommendations this week for cash game quarterbacks because the salaries on the major sites are very tight.  The first is Aaron Rodgers, who gets a great matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night football at Lambeau Field in Green Bay.  The Packers are projected to score five touchdowns by Vegas oddsmakers, which means that Rodgers should get at least two...probably three; likewise, the Falcons are giving up a league-worst 285 passing yards per game, which should be the minimum that Rodgers will accumulate in this one.  Adding up those simplistic projections, Rodgers should be right around 20-24 fantasy points, which would pay off his value for cash games (particularly if he hits the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings).  

Cam Newton (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7800, DK: $6700).  At the lower end of salaries, Cam Newton is another option for your cash games on Sunday.  Newton is not the poster child of a cash game quarterback (i.e., consistent), but the gamescript and his salary both play to his favor this weekend.  The Panthers travel to New Orleans and Vegas believes that the Panthers will be playing from behind for most of the game, which means that Newton could be forced to throw the ball 40 times...against a defense that ranks dead-last in pass coverage (per ProFootballFocus).  Likewise, Newton is good for a few scrambles of his own--he is averaging 31.0 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns per game.  To reach value, Newton needs only ~ 16-18 fantasy points, which is 200 yards passing and a touchdown plus his average day of scrambling; the gamescript should easily facilitate these numbers.

GPP WIDE RECEIVERS 

Randall Cobb (Primarily GPP; FD: $8400, DK: $7400)  For good reason, Jordy Nelson is the guy that DFS gamers want to roster on any given Sunday; however, Nelson will be covered primarily by the Falcons' only decent cornerback, Desmond Trufant, this week.  Nelson will still get his numbers, but Rodgers will likely play the veteran card and find the open receiver, who will almost assuredly be Randall Cobb.  Cobb started the season on fire, scoring 10 touchdowns in the team's first 9 games, but he has gone 3 consecutive games without a touchdown despite averaging 9.8 targets per game during that span.  With a team total of 35 points, the Packers should have plenty of scoring opportunities in this one and Cobb's declining salary is attractive because of his upside against the worst defense in football.

Kelvin Benjamin (Primarily GPP; FD: $7500, DK: $6500).  The Panthers have but one bona fide offensive weapon and his name is Kelvin Benjamin.  Despite the fact that the Panthers have no running game and no secondary receiver to speak of, Benjamin continues to beat double-coverage and put up solid numbers in his rookie season.  Benjamin gets a prime matchup against ProFootballFocus' worst-rated pass coverage defense in the form of the Saints this weekend and will likely see plenty of opportunity, as the Panthers try to keep pace with the Saints' offense.  Last time out against the Saints, Benjamin disappointed, but he had several near-misses and even a dropped touchdown; he offers two-touchdown upside at a reasonable price on a team with limited options, so he appears here as a GPP play for your consideration.

Jarvis Landry (Primarily GPP; FD: $6900, DK: $5600).  Landry is quickly becoming Ryan Tannehill's favorite target in Miami; he has double-digit targets in three of the Dolphins' last four games and averaged 1.5 more targets per game than Mike Wallace over that span (including three touchdowns).  Landry is the not prototypical GPP play because he is primarily a possession receiver, but for what he lacks in big play ability, he returns in quantity and usage.  Further boosting his value is the fact that he will line up across from Ravens' CB Matt Elam, who is allowing an opposing QB rating of 131.9 on the season (3rd worst in the league).  Lastly, Landry returns both punts and kicks for the Dolphins--should he manage to return either for a touchdown, you will be glad to have those 'bonus' points on your GPP rosters.

Robert Woods (GPP only; FD: $5900, DK: $4500).  There is almost no doubt that the Bills will be playing catchup football on Sunday against the Broncos in Mile High Stadium.  Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 40.1 passing attempts per game and the prime beneficiary should be Sammy Watkins, but Watkins will be shadowed by All-Pro CB Aqib Talib all afternoon, leaving Robert Woods as Kyle Orton's primary receiver.  Woods, the second-year receiver out of USC, will be covered by Bradley Roby, who has yielded 6 passing touchdowns and is allowing an opposing quarterback rating of 104.5 this season.  Over the past few weeks, Orton and Woods seem to have gotten their timing in sync and it is evident through increased targets, completions, and redzone opportunities.  Because the Bills will be restricted to throwing the ball to limited receivers, Woods is a low-salary candidate for your GPP rosters that should afford you the luxury of paying up for players at other positions.

CASH GAME WIDE RECEIVERS

Calvin Johnson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9200, DK: $9500).  Mega is finally back...but...was he ever really 'gone?'  When Calvin Johnson returned from his injury in Week #10 against the Dolphins, he finished the day with a 7/113/1 performance, but followed it up with back-to-back duds.  Last week, he returned to stardom with an 11/146/2 showing against the Bears on Thanksgiving.  So what happened during those 'off' weeks?  First, he saw All-Pro CB Patrick Peterson, who was followed by an underrated Brandon Browner (and safety over the top)...in both instances, we should have anticipated a letdown week given the coverage he was facing.  This week, however, Megatron will have his way with Tampa Bay's below-average cornerbacks, Alterraun Verner and Johnathan Banks; neither one of these guys will be able to slow down Johnson.  The best part about rostering Calvin Johnson is that he is almost guaranteed targets; Stafford peppers him with passes, as evidenced by his 53 targets over the past 4 games.  If you can afford him, plug-and-play.

Odell Beckham (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8200, DK: $7700).  ODB could see increased action this week if Rashad Jennings is inactive because it seems unrealistic to expect Tom Coughlin will trust rookie RB Andre Williams with the ball on 20+ carries under any circumstance.  Beckham has become the receiver in New York over the past month, collecting 52 targets over his previous 5 games.  He should have his way with the Titans' porous secondary, who gave up a 238-yard, 2-touchdown game to DeAndre Hopkins just a week ago.  Beckham's floor is 7 receptions for 80 yards, but his likelihood of adding more, including a touchdown, is high...he is a safe play at the higher end of the DFS salary scale this weekend for your cash games.

Josh Gordon (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8000, DK: $8100).  As of the writing of this article, Colts' shutdown cornerback Vontae Davis still has not practiced this week, which bodes well for the prospects of Josh Gordon.  Since his return in Week #12, Gordon is averaging 7.5 receptions (on 14.5 targets) and 97.5 yards per game.  Several factors play to Gordon's advantage this week:  1)  Miles Austin was placed on the IR earlier this week, which should bolster Gordon's already-huge role in the offense, 2)  Without Vontae Davis, the Colts are a poor pass defense and do not have the personnel to matchup against Gordon, 3)  The gamescript should keep pressure on the Browns to throw the ball, and 4)  The Browns backfield is a big question mark heading into the weekend with Isaiah Crowell nursing an injury and Terrance West not inspiring confidence from the coaching staff.  This will be the last week you can roster Gordon at the low end of $8K on the major DFS sites; he is almost assured to score a TD this weekend, which will push his salary to the upper echelon of wide receivers hereafter.  Take advantage while you can.

Kenny Stills (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6400, DK: $6000).  Kenny Stills makes a repeat appearance in this section of Tips & Picks this week because the sites still refuse to price him at a level that is commensurate with his value in the Saints' offense.  Since Brandin Cooks went down with a season-ending injury, Stills has been the most targeted receiver in the explosive Saints' passing game (15 targets); last week, his opportunities were limited due to the Saints acquiring superb field position after inopportune turnovers by their opponent (the Steelers), but he still finished the day with 5 receptions for 162 yards and a touchdown.  The Panthers are not stellar in defending the pass--they rank 26th in the league in pass coverage, 26th in passing touchdowns allowed, and 23rd in generating a pass rush...all of which bodes well for Stills to continue to reach value for our DFS cash game rosters.

Reggie Wayne (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6400, DK: $4800).  Call me crazy, but I'm going back to Reggie Wayne again this week.  Despite his poor performance last week against the Redskins, Wayne is still the most highly-targeted receiver in the best passing offense in the league.  This week, that offense travels to Cleveland, which boasts one of the best coverage corners in the NFL, Joe Haden; Haden will likely key on T.Y. Hilton, which means that Reggie Wayne should see plenty of opportunity once again.  The Colts are projected to score nearly four touchdowns in this game and Wayne is long overdue for some positive regression in that category.  The rare combination of his plus matchup, the gamescript, low salary, and overall opportunity makes Reggie Wayne both a great cash and GPP play this weekend.

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