For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the RBs and TEs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski (Primarily GPP; FD: $7700, DK: $8000). After two consecutive non-touchdown weekends, Gronk gets a slight downgrade in the Tips & Picks column simply because the salaries on both major sites are so tight this weekend. When salaries are this sharp, one can only 'spend up' when one is extremely confident that given player will score a touchdown (for cash game purposes); with the rise of Brandon LaFell (and his plus matchup against SD cornerback Shareece Wright) and the carousel of running backs in New England these days, it is becoming difficult to predict who will score on any given week. That said, Gronk has the most upside of any tight end on the weekend and he cannot be ignored; if you can find a way to slot him into your GPP lineups without crippling them at other positions, it is an understandable move that could pay dividends in large-field tournaments.
Jimmy Graham (GPP only; FD: $7100, DK: $6500). The other marquis tight end, Jimmy Graham, also falls to the GPP section of this column because of concerns over his health. If you rostered Graham last week, you were sorely disappointed to discover that he not only did not catch a pass, he was not even targeted in a game where Drew Brees threw for 5 touchdown passes! Some pundits stated that the Steelers 'keyed' on Jimmy Graham, forcing the Saints to use other receivers to beat them (which the Saints easily did), but it is now becoming evident that Graham was not 100% last week and the Saints used him more of a decoy than anything else. Looking at Graham's game log, he played only 32 out of 57 offensive snaps (56.1%) last week, which was the lowest percentage of snaps he played since being hailed as 100% healthy back in Week #8. On Friday, Graham finally admitted that he still is bothered by his shoulder injury and that it has affected his play. Because of his high price tag, his questionable health status, and additional questions about his usage in what could be a blowout game, Graham is nothing more than a GPP play against the Panthers.
Larry Donnell (Primarily GPP; FD: $5300, DK: $4100). With everybody piling on the Odell Beckham bandwagon these days, nobody seems to remember that Larry Donnell is still getting targeted quite often in the Giants' offense (31 times in 5 weeks since the Giants' bye week). Donnell's opponents, the Titans, have allowed 7 different tight ends to score touchdowns in their 12 games this season, which is one of the worst rates in the league. At a nomimal price and likely low ownership, Donnell is an interesting GPP play if you want to pivot off the higher-salary tight ends.
CASH GAME TIGHT ENDS
Delanie Walker (Cash and GPP format; FD: $5400, DK: $4200). With such tight pricing on the big DFS sites this week and the questions surrounding both Gronk and Graham, it might be wise to pivot to lower salary (i.e., lower risk) tight ends this week. The first of two recommended plays is the Titans' Delanie Walker against the NY Giants. With Justin Hunter now on the IR and Kendall Wright likely 'out' with a broken hand, WR3 Nate Washington becomes the primary wide receiver in Nashville. Washington will get his share of targets, but Walker looks to be the other receiving option for Mettenberger, which means that he could get 10 targets; any time a tight end is getting that type of attention from the quarterback, he should be on your short list of DFS plays for that day.
Jordan Reed (Primarily cash format; FD: $5300, DK: $4600). There is no reason to get off this train just yet. Last week, Jordan Reed was recommended in this section of "Tips & Picks" because Colt McCoy is a known checkdown machine; McCoy did not disappoint, targeting Reed a team-high 11 times. Reed caught 9 of those targets and compiled 123 yards against the Colts in the process. While 9/123 is probably a bit much to ask against the Rams, given the strength of their defense and the slower gamescript, Reed should still be targeted often, particularly if DeSean Jackson does not play (he did not practice all week). Reed's floor is likely 5 catches for 50 yards, which gets him fairly close to reaching value at a position where options are limited.
GPP RUNNING BACKS
Marshawn Lynch (Primarily GPP; FD: $8600, DK: $7700). The Eagles have been stellar against the run, allowing only 3.9 yards per carry (7th in NFL) and 107.7 rushing yards per game (11th in NFL) through their first twelve games of the season. And Marshawn Lynch? Well...he has nine rushing touchdowns this season and exactly ZERO away from home. So why recommend Marshawn Lynch as a GPP play? The truth is that the Eagles suffered a big blow in Week #9 when LB DeMeco Ryans went on the IR with a torn Achilles' tendon--he was their primary run stopper. Since he went down four games ago, the Eagles have given up six touchdowns to opposing running backs, including pedestrian names like Dester McCluster and Shonn Greene. This week, the Seahawks do not have the personnel to get into a shootout with the Eagles, so expect them to give the ball to Lynch 25+ times in both phases of the offense. Given his ample opportunity and likely low ownership, Lynch should get your utmost consideration for your GPP rosters on Sunday.
Mark Ingram (Primarily GPP; FD: $7700, DK: $6500). Mark Ingram's extension was not renewed earlier this year and he is playing for a new contract with another team. Meanwhile, the Saints are trying to milk Ingram for anything remaining in his proverbial tank; they have been mercessily feeding him the ball since Week #8, when he returned from an injury. In five of those six games, Ingram has touched the ball at least 25 times; the outlier was a game where the Saints trailed the Ravens for most of the game and Ingram was eliminated from the gameplan. This week, the Saints are big favorites and slated to score 30 points, which could ensure that Ingram continues to see heavy action in this offense; after several weeks without a touchdown, Ingram could be overlooked by the masses, which makes him even more attractive for GPP purposes.
Joique Bell (Primarily GPP; FD: $6800, DK: $5500). Things are beginning to click in Detroit. After enduring nagging injuries to Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush, all systems are 'go' headed into this week's matchup against the Tampa Bay Bucs. Coming into the game with extra rest from their Thanksgiving victory over the Bears, expect the Lions to lay the hammer on the Bucs and jump to an early lead; once that lead is built, it should be the "Joique Bell Show" thereafter to bleed the clock. Reggie Bush will return this week, but it would be surprising to see him (or Theo Riddick) play much because the need to pass to the running back should be minimal in what Vegas predicts will be an easy win for Detroit. With the 31st rated run defense (per ProFootballFocus) in town, Joique Bell has 2-touchdown upside, which is what you need to pull down a big GPP.
CASH GAME RUNNING BACKS
Arian Foster (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8700, DK: $9300). Arian Foster has a plus-plus matchup against ProFootballFocus' 26th rated run defense, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags have allowed six rushing touchdowns in their last four games and have particularly struggled against pass-catching backs like Arian Foster, who has a receiving touchdown in each of his previous four games. With the gamescript and the matchup heavily in his favor, Foster's floor would appear to be 120 all-purpose yards and a touchdown plus bonus points for receptions...enough to reach value for his elevated salary. One point of caution: Foster has been battling groin issues off-and-on all season, but he has looked solid when on the field--be sure to check his status on Sunday morning prior to locking him in, just in case his hammy is tweaked on Sunday morning.
Eddie Lacy (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8500, DK: $7800). Last year, Eddie Lacy touched the ball 20+ times in two-thirds of the Packers games (in which he played); in 2014, the Packers had gotten away from leaning so heavily on Lacy and it certainly affected his fantasy numbers...until recently. Over the past few games, Green Bay has gotten back to their ways of yesteryear and given Lacy the ball 50 times; he has responded with 253 all-purpose yards and a pair of touchdowns. This week, Lacy should get plenty of opportunity to tote the ball against the Atlanta Falcons, who have given up more rushing touchdowns than any other team in the NFL. As 13-point favorites, the Packers should build a lead, possibly on Lacy's legs, and then ask Lacy to run clock in the second half; Lacy is a stellar cash game play and possible GPP play because of his multiple touchdown upside in this contest.
Frank Gore (Cash only; FD: $5700, DK: $4800). Frank Gore is the first of two low-end running backs that could help you save salary to open up options at other positions this weekend. Gore is admittedly not sexy...he does not catch passes, he is certainly not quick, and he is in the twilight of his career. However, the Niners still feed him the ball routinely (>12 touches in 75% of Niners' games) and, despite the rumor to the contrary, he is not losing offensive snaps to Carlos Hyde (yet). Look back at Gore's game logs and you'll see that he has struggled with good rushing defenses (SEA, WAS, ARZ, STL x2), but he has put up respectable numbers against average to below-average rushing defenses like the one he faces this weekend in the form of the Raiders. Given the sharp player pricing this week on both major sites, Gore is a viable option to save some salary space because he will likely carry the ball 14-18 times and get a few chances inside the redzone to run for a TD; his upside may be limited, but his floor would seem to be ~ 8 fantasy points given the matchup and his likely usage.
Jonathan Stewart (Cash only; FD: $5200, DK: $3800). The second low-end option for your cash games this Sunday is another 'old man.' Jonathan Stewart. This week, DeAngelo Williams will be sidelined with a fractured hand, which means that Stewart should get an increased workload against the Saints. Stewart has looked admirable in limited action over the past month or so, averaging 4.8 yards per carry since returning from injury in Week #7; his metrics ("Elusive rating" and yards after contact) on ProFootballFocus are surprisingly some of the best in the league. Rostering Stewart does not come without concern, however; the gamescript does not favor Stewart's prolong involvement, as the Panthers may be playing from behind later in the game and Stewart could lose goalline opportunities to FB Mike Tolbert, who returned from injury last week. That said, Stewart can catch passes out of the backfield and his low salary dictates that you only need ~ 10 fantasy points to reach value on the major sites, a reasonable expectation given his likely workload on Sunday.
For last-minute advice, player decisions, and injury news on Sunday morning, tune into the “NFL Gameday” webcast at 11:30 AM (EST) on RotoGrinders Live, where John “tipandpick” Lee, Al “Al_Smizzle” Zeidenfeld, and Dan “DB730” Back will analyze all NFL games every week. You can find the webcast at: https://rotogrinders.com/live. All other daily fantasy questions can be directed to John’s Twitter page at: https://twitter.com/tipandpick
