VEGAS VALUE CHART: WEEK 13

Photo: Samantha Madar, USA Today Sports

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

THREE STAR PLAYS

PASSING GAME

• Green Bay (versus New England):  What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?  We will find out on Sunday when the Packers host the New England Patriots.  Despite the Pats winning 9 of their last 10 and allowing opponents to score an average of 16.7 points per game over that span, Vegas still thinks that Aaron Rodgers and company will score over 30 points in this contest; trust Vegas...they know what they are doing.

RUNNING GAME

• Indianapolis (versus Washington):  At first glance, the Vegas odds would indicate that Trent Richardson could have a huge game on Sunday against the Redskins.  The Colts are 10-point favorites over Washington, which generally bodes well for the favored team's running game; however, the Redskins' strength is their rushing defense (9th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game) and they are generally exploited through the air.  This is one of those times when the Vegas odds may not tell the whole story.

TEAM DEFENSE

• St. Louis (versus Oakland):  When you think of the St. Louis Rams, you probably do not think of a 3-star defense.  However, the opening odds indicate that the Rams could be in a good situation on Sunday against the Oakland Raiders, who won their first game of the year last Thursday against the Kansas City Chiefs.  Despite their upset win, the Raiders are still averaging only 16.0 points per game, which is better than only the Jacksonville Jaguars on the season.  Rostering the Rams' defense could be a sneaky DFS play this weekend.
• Houston (versus Tennessee):  A rookie quarterback on the road against J.J. Watt?  No thanks.  Oddsmakers think that the Titans will score ~ 18 points against the Texans this weekend, which is understandable given Watt's 2014 dominance over opposing offenses; add in Jadeveon Clowney and Brian Cushing to the mix and things do not look promising for Zach Mettenberger this weekend.
• Miami (versus NY Jets):  After getting hammered by the Buffalo Bills on Monday night, the Jets will try again next Monday night against the Dolphins in Miami.  The Jets' offense is 30th in the NFL (points per game) and Vegas foresees them having a difficult time putting up points against the Dolphins' defense.  The Jets are 31st in sacks allowed (36), which only further augments the case for rostering the Jets' defense, particularly given Vegas' projections for this one.

TWO STAR PLAYS

PASSING GAME

• Indianapolis (versus Washington):  Andrew Luck "struggled" last week against the Jags, finishing with only 253 passing yards and a touchdown; however, he was an overthrown pass to Reggie Wayne away from another 300+ yard performance.  Against the Redskins' secondary, Luck should be able to get back on track and oddsmakers agree--the Colts are projected to score 30.5 points, which should once again put the Colts' passing game squarely in DFS fantasy radars in Week #13.
• Dallas (versus Philadelphia):  Last Sunday night, Tony Romo was a model of efficiency when he threw for 275 yards and 4 touchdowns against the NY Giants.  Romo gets another plus matchup on Thanksgiving, one in which Vegas believes the Cowboys should score over 4 touchdowns; given the Eagles' poor secondary, Romo and Dez Bryant could be in store for solid fantasy output...particularly if the game plays out as closely as Vegas projects it.
• Pittsburgh (versus New Orleans):  Fresh off his bye week, Ben Roethlisberger will try to exploit the New Orleans Saints' secondary, who are rated 31st in the NFL in pass coverage by ProFootballFocus.  Oddsmakers think that the Steelers will score 28 points in this matchup, which could bode well for Big Ben and his bevy of receivers, particularly if New Orleans can keep the game competitive.
• New England (versus Green Bay):  In the game with the highest Vegas total on the week (58 total points), there should be plenty of fantasy goodness to go around.  Tom Brady has been magnificent since his slow start, throwing for 20 touchdowns over the previous 6 games; if the Packers score early, Brady should be heavily-involved in a game where Vegas projects the Pats to score nearly 28 points.

RUNNING GAME

• Green Bay (versus New England):  Eddie Lacy finally saw a decent number of touches last week (27) and responded with a huge fantasy day (~ 140 all-purpose yards and 2 touchdowns).  In a projected barn-burner between the Packers and Patriots, expect Lacy to get plenty of opportunities to repeat at Lambeau on Sunday afternoon.
• Dallas (versus Philadelphia):  DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys rushed for 121 yards last weekend against the Giants, but were unable to find the endzone, as Tony Romo garnered all the touchdowns.  With a team total approaching 30 points and a team that emphasizes the run first, expect to see a heavy dose of Murray on Turkey Day.
• Pittsburgh (versus New Orleans):  Justin Forsett lit up the Saints for 182 rushing yards and a couple of touchdowns on Monday night.  The Monday prior to that, another running back rushed for over 200 yards against the Tennessee Titans...that back, Le'Veon Bell, gets the former defense this week and will be out for a similar stat line.  With a team total of 28 points, rostering Bell is a smart move.
• Detroit (versus Chicago):  For the first time in a few years, the Detroit Lions are big favorites over the Chicago Bears.  Vegas projects the Lions to score almost 4 touchdowns and to win by a touchdown, which should mean that the Lions' running backs could get extra carries in the second half of the game to run time from the clock.  Reggie Bush is showing his age recently and has been limited in practice this week, so give the nod to Joique Bell with the value play, Theo Riddick, a distant second.

TEAM DEFENSE

• Buffalo (versus Cleveland):  The Bills have tallied 27 sacks over their past 5 games and are averaging a respectable 12 fantasy points per game over that stretch.  In Week #13, the Bills face a much tougher offensive line in the Browns, but Vegas still believes the Bills to be the superior team, favoring them by 2.5-points in a very low-scoring game.

ONE STAR PLAYS

PASSING GAME

• Detroit (versus Chicago):  The Lions' passing game has left a lot to be desired recently, going two complete games without a passing touchdown.  The cure to what ails Matthew Stafford awaits in the form of the Chicago Bears' secondary on Thanksgiving--the Bears have given up more passing touchdowns than any team in the NFL.  With a projected team total of nearly 28 points, Vegas fully expects Stafford to see some improvement on Thanksgiving.
• Baltimore (versus San Diego):  As one of the higher projected scoring teams on the weekend, the Baltimore Ravens' offense should be given consideration.  Vegas believes the Ravens should score nearly four touchdowns against the Chargers, which means that Joe Flacco and either Torry or Steve Smith should be on your DFS radars this weekend.
• Philadelphia (versus Dallas):  Any time Chip Kelly's offense takes the field, something special could happen.  This battle of 8-3 teams atop the NFC East should be interesting and is likely to turn into a shootout; if it does (and Vegas believes it will), expect to see a steady dose of Mark Sanchez, Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Matthews, and possibly even Brent Celek on Thanksgiving afternoon.
• Denver (versus Kansas City):  Peyton Manning did what Peyton Manning does last week in a tough matchup against the Miami Dolphins--he threw for 257 passing yards and 4 touchdowns.  He gets an even tougher matchup this weekend against the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead, but you should never completely dismiss Peyton because he can throw for 300-yards and multiple touchdowns any Sunday.  With a projected team total of ~ 25 points, his upside might be less limited than other Sundays in 2014, but his fantasy floor is still high.
• Washington (versus Indianapolis):  Colt McCoy will replace Robert Griffin III as the starting quarterback of the Washington Redskins in this road matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.  The Skins are only projected to score three touchdowns, but McCoy will be cheap across the industry because of the late announcement and he should get a hefty number of passing attempts as his team tries to keep pace with Vegas' top projected scoring team on the week.
• Chicago (versus Detroit):  The Bears' passing game has to be one of the bigger disappointments of the 2014 season; with talent at every skill position, one would have thought that Jay Cutler could be having one of the best seasons of his career.  However, the Bears' offense just has not lived up to expectations thus far.  On Thursday, they will play an NFC North game in Detroit to try to salvage any hope of a playoff appearance this year.  Vegas does not like the Bears' chances to win this game, but they do believe Chicago could be chasing points, which means that Cutler and company could amass some stats that will help your DFS bottom line.
• Tennessee (versus Houston):  If you can muster the courage to roster rookie quarterback, Zach Mettenberger, on the road against J.J. Watt and the Texans, you will definitely have a unique lineup for GPP tournaments.  This one is risky, but the oddsmaker are telling us that Mettenberger will likely be throwing a lot on Sunday, which could spell some nice garbage time statistics for the Titans' passing game.
• Oakland (versus St. Louis):  Another team who will be playing from behind (if we believe the Vegas line) are the Oakland Raiders.  Despite winning their last contest against the Chiefs, the Raiders have not been given much of a chance to win this game against the Rams in St. Louis.  Since they will be playing from behind, the Oakland passing game could stand to benefit, but it would require the Raiders to catch lightning in a bottle on consecutive weekends...which is unlikely.

RUNNING GAME

• New England (versus Green Bay):  The good news:  The Patriots are slated to score 28 points against the Packers on Sunday and the running game will assuredly be a major part of that because the Packers give up a hefty 4.5 yards per carry on the ground.  The bad news:  Which Pats' running back gets the carries is all but a guess in Bill Belichick's offense.  Last week, Shane Vereen got 75% of the offensive snaps, but LeGarrette Blount got 2 rushing touchdowns on only 17 snaps; meanwhile, Jonas Gray, who had 4 touchdowns the week prior, did not get a single snap.  This one is tough to call.
• Baltimore (versus San Diego):  With a projected team total of ~ 25 points, the Ravens' offense will collect some fantasy goodness in Week #13.  Last week, they scored 34 points against the Saints on Monday night and Justin Forsett had a huge game with 180+ rushing yards and 2 touchdowns.  Across a number of statistical categories, the Chargers (this week's opponents) are only moderately better against the run, which might mean that Forsett could keep it rolling agains this week.
• Philadelphia (versus Dallas):  LeSean McCoy finally got into the endzone last weekend and showed significant improvement against the Titans, averaging 6.2 yards per carry on the game.  The Cowboys are allowing similar yardage (yards per carry) on the season and Vegas thinks this will be the best fantasy game of the day on Thanksgiving--if they are correct, McCoy will certainly get his share of action.
• Denver (versus Kansas City):  The Kansas City Chiefs yielded their first rushing touchdowns of the season last week to Raider Latavius Murray.  Ironically, despite giving up only two rushing touchdowns all season, the Chiefs' front seven are bleeding yardage on the ground--they allow opposing running backs an astounding 5.0 yards per carry, which is worst in the league.  Enter C.J. Anderson, who has been solid in relief of Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball over the past few weeks; the Broncos are giving him increased touches each week, so he could offer significant upside on a team slated to score ~ 25 points.

TEAM DEFENSE 

• Baltimore (versus San Diego): After losing their home opener against the Bengals in Week #1, the Ravens have won four straight at home and given up an average of 7.5 points per game in those efforts.  After a convincing road victory in New Orleans on Monday night, the Ravens will look to carry that momentum against the visiting Chargers; the Chargers are projected to score only 20 points against the Ravens, which means that Baltimore could be a viable DFS defense this weekend.

• San Francisco (versus Seattle): The Seahawks face the 49ers in their first of two games over the next three weeks on Thanksgiving night.  The game will be held in San Francisco and the oddsmakers project the Niners as slight favorites over the Seahawks.  This one looks to have all the makings of an old-fashioned defensive struggle with plenty of redzone stalls that result in field goal opportunities.  Of these two defenses, San Francisco gets the slight nod because Vegas sees them as the favorite and because the Niners accumulate far more sacks than do the Seahawks.

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