For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the QBs and WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday. Finally, in the next article, the topic will center on RBs and TEs.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP QUARTERBACKS
Tom Brady (Primarily GPP; FD: $9800, DK: $8400). Bill Belichick is a master of game planning and he will assuredly need a solid one to keep pace with the Packers in Lambeau on Sunday afternoon. The Patriots' best course of action would be to run the ball to take advantage of Green Bay's defensive weakness (30th against the rush) and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field; that said, the Patriots may not have the luxury of running the ball 30+ times because the gamescript could dictate that Tom Brady throws the ball to keep pace with the electric Packers' offense. Vegas projects this game at nearly 60 total points, which means that there should be plenty of fantasy goodness to be had...Brady's upside is immense, which makes him an ideal GPP play in this one.
Ben Roethlisberger (Primarily GPP; FD: $8300, DK: $7600). The game with the 2nd-highest total on the weekend is between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints. Roethlisberger has cooled down a bit after his back-to-back six touchdown games in Weeks 8 and 9, but his matchup against the Saints could put him in a position to return to those huge types of numbers. The Saints rate out as ProFootballFocus' worst team in pass coverage and are 27th in generating a pass rush; this should give Big Ben a lot of time to find his talented receiving crew in space. Both Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant could feasibly finish this game with 100+ yards and a pair of touchdowns...each. In fact, the sole reason that Roethlisberger is not a 'cash game' quarterback is because of the distinct possibility that Le'Veon Bell could rush for 150 yards against this same defense. Excitement for Roethlisberger is bolstered by the fact that the Saints could keep the game close on the right arm of Drew Brees and the weakness of the Steelers' secondary, thereby turning this one into an old-fashioned shootout.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (GPP only; FD: $5000, DK: $5400). Ryan Fitzpatrick returns as the Texans' starting quarterback after Ryan Mallet's season ended last week with a torn pectoral. Fitzpatrick was replaced as the starter just a few weeks ago after refusing to throw into spaces that HC Bill O'Brien believed were there; look for veteran Fitzpatrick to take a few more chances now that he has been given a second chance because these next few games could dictate not only his future with the Texans, but also his career in the NFL. In Fitzpatrick's favor are the coverage cornerbacks that he will face off against this weekend; out of 68 qualifiers, Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Jason McCourty are ProFootballFocus' 56th and 68th worst coverage corners in the league...both of whom will have their hands full with Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. Given Fitzpatrick's drastically-low salary, he needs to only score ~ 15 to 20 fantasy points to reach value for GPP format, which is 220 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns.
CASH GAME QUARTERBACKS
Andrew Luck (Cash and GPP format; FD: $10,100, DK: $9700). Despite a poor outing last weekend in a plus matchup against the Jaguars, Andrew Luck makes a return appearance to the cash game section of Tips & Picks this week; in his worst performance of the year last week, Luck still managed to score 17 fantasy points, just missing value on FanDuel for cash games. He could have had a huge game, if not for just a few freakish plays: He missed Reggie Wayne on what-would-have-been a 70-yard touchdown strike by just a few yards and missed another touchdown pass by inches (also to Wayne). Against the Redskins this weekend, expect to see Luck back to himself, dicing apart this poor secondary that is ranked just below New Orleans in pass coverage (PFF); furthermore, because the Redskins are tough against the run, the Colts will be forced to lean on the passing game to move the ball, particularly if they expect to reach the 31 points scored that Vegas has projected for them.
Aaron Rodgers (Cash and GPP format; FD: $9900, DK: $9400). Some DFS pundits have already announced that they are fading Aaron Rodgers this weekend against the Patriots--I, however, am not one of those guys. At home this season, Rodgers is averaging 282.6 passing yards, 3.6 touchdowns, and 29.3 fantasy points per game! Sure, his matchup against the Patriots is one of the tougher ones he will see this season with CB's Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner covering Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, respectively...but the game is at Lambeau, not Gillette Stadium, and Rodgers will find the open receiver, even if they are not named Jordy or Cobb. This is the highest total (58) on an NFL game since 2000, when the Rams played the 49ers (63, in that instance), and fading the home quarterback, a future Hall-of-Famer, does not seem to be a long-term +EV decision.
Drew Stanton (Cash and GPP format; FD: $6500, DK: $5000). If you cannot afford to roster either Luck or Rodgers in your cash games this weekend, Drew Stanton is worth a look. Stanton is not an exciting QB play, but his bargain salary demands that you give him consideration; on both major sites, Stanton needs ~ 13 fantasy points to reach value, which is basically 200 passing yards and a touchdown. Some will analyze his game logs and stay away because he has only one passing touchdown over the past two games, but those were extremely tough matchups against Detroit and Seattle. This week, Stanton gets a plus-plus matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who are 29th worst in pass coverage and 31st in generating a pass rush against opposing quarterbacks. Stanton's upside may be limited, but his floor would appear to be 10-12 points; rostering him in your cash games allows you a lot of financial flexibility at other key positions.
GPP WIDE RECEIVERS
A.J. Green (Primarily GPP; FD: $9000, DK: $8200) and Mohamed Sanu (GPP only; FD: $7000, DK: $5200). Both A.J. Green and Mohamed Sanu represent solid GPP selections this weekend when they face off against the Tampa Bay Bucs' secondary that has allowed 21 passing touchdowns on the season (28th in the NFL). After nursing a toe injury for an extended period of time, Green announced himself "100% healthy" after his last game, where he caught 12 passes (16 targets) for 121 yards; against this secondary, Green should continue to get a lot of plus matchups that could result in multiple scores. Meanwhile, Mohamed Sanu would appear to be negatively affected by Green's resurgence, but Sanu should only benefit from double-coverage that will be directed at Green; given Sanu's markedly lower salary, he offers similar upside as Green, but at a fair discount.
Josh Gordon (Primarily GPP; FD: $8100, DK: $8300). In this section last week, Josh Gordon made his inaugural appearance in the GPP section of "Tips & Picks." On Sunday morning, however, ESPN's Adam Schefter announced that Gordon would only play 20-30 snaps, which caused a lot of DFS players to pivot off of Gordon to other players. Gordon ended up playing 54 of the Brown's 78 snaps (69.2%) and was targeted an amazing 16 times on just 35 passing routes run (45.7% rate)! This week, he does not get the luxury of facing the Falcons' secondary again, but he will line up across from Buffalo CB Stephon Gilmore, who is alllowing an opposing quarterback rating of 127.0 on the season (6th worst in the league), not to mention a 76.2% catch rate (9th worst in the league). The only downside to rostering Gordon is that he will be highly-owned after his impressive return last weekend.
DeAndre Hopkins (Primarily GPP; FD: $7100, DK: $5400) and Andre Johnson (GPP only; FD: $6300, DK: $4900). As of the writing of this article, Arian Foster is questionable to play on Sunday with a nagging groin injury. When healthy this season, Foster, has been nothing short of fantastic; however, he has not played in 3 weeks and groin injuries can be aggravated easily. So it would not be surprising to see the Texans try to lighten Arian Foster's load on Sunday by throwing the ball a bit more against a very susceptible Titans' secondary. As discussed above (Ryan Fitzpatrick), the Texans' individual matchups with the Titans could be exploited to their advantage and both DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson could be the beneficiaries; both receivers are solid GPP plays because of their reasonable salaries, high numbers of targets, and likely low ownership due to a lack of receiving touchdowns on the season.
John Brown (Primarily GPP; FD: $6500, DK: $4500). The rookie out of Pittsburg State leads the Arizona Cardinals in both targets and touchdowns on the season and seems to be picking up confidence with each week. Larry Fitzgerald looks on the doubtful side of questionable leading into Sunday, which would make John Brown the de facto WR1 in the Cardinals' offense when they travel to the Georgia Dome to face off against the Falcons' secondary. Over the previous two games, Brown's fantasy output has been less than impressive, but consider that he was facing off against the Seahawks' and Lions' secondaries and his numbers seem reasonable. Only the sharpest of DFS players will be 'on' Brown this week...you should give him your utmost consideration in GPP formats.
Davante Adams (GPP only; FD: $5100, DK: $3000). Davante Adams is the classical boom-or-bust GPP play this weekend. He could legitimately finish the game without a single offensive statistic or he could finish with 5 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. The game between Green Bay and New England is projected to be a high-scoring affair and the Patriots will be focusing their attention on Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb; that should leave Adams free to run his routes against the Patriots' lesser-talented cornerback(s). At minimum salary on nearly every DFS site, Adams is that hit-or-miss GPP play that could pay large dividends because his value is immense, his matchup is solid, and his ownership will be low.
CASH GAME WIDE RECEIVERS
Antonio Brown (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9200, DK: $9000). If only Antonio Brown were not so expensive. Brown is, by far, my favorite wide receiver this weekend; he will face off against the New Orleans' secondary, who simply do not have the talent to cover the likes of Brown. Antonio Brown is used in many different scenarios by the Steelers (i.e., bubble passes, slants, deep routes, etc.), which is frustrating to even the best coverage corners, let alone the Saints' poor excuses for cornerbacks. Going into the Steelers' bye week, Brown had been averaging 12 targets per game over his previous 5 games. Expect a heavy dose of Brown this week, which should result in a 100-yard receiving and a touchdown game.
Odell Beckham (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8500, DK: $6800). Beckham makes a repeat appearance in the cash game section of this series because of his continued dominance. After earning Richard Sherman's respect a few weeks ago, Beckham outclassed the Cowboys' Brandon Carr, finishing last week with 10 receptions for 146 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Against Jacksonville this Sunday, Beckham will keep his momentum rolling against the Jags' Dwayne Gratz, who gave up a 70-yard touchdown to T.Y. Hilton just a year ago and is allowing an opposing QB rating of 127.6 when they throw in his direction. With Beckham earning more of Eli Manning's trust each week, his weekly target average (11) would only seem to be increasing hereafter...roster Beckham and relax that he will get his 17 fantasy points to reach value on the major DFS sites.
Reggie Wayne (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6700, DK: $4900). Last week, Reggie Wayne just missed a huge week. In the third quarter against the Jaguars, Wayne found separation and was 5 yards behind the nearest defender when Andrew Luck overthrew him on what-would-have-been a 70-yard TD strike; earlier in the game, Luck threw an awkward shovel pass to Wayne from the Jags' 5-yard line that just sailed over Wayne's fingertips, which could have been another easy touchdown. Reggie Wayne's salary is entirely too low for a receiver who is averaging nearly 10 targets per game on a team slated to score 30 points this Sunday; his touchdowns are coming and you will want to be on board when they arrive. At his current salary, Wayne needs only 13 fantasy points to reach value, which is something that he might accomplish by halftime against the Redskins' porous secondary.
Kenny Stills (Cash & GPP format; FD: $5100, DK: $4800). Another value receiver for your cash game consideration is Kenny Stills. Stills was the major beneficiary of the season-ending injury to Brandin Cooks a few weeks ago; after averaging 4.7 targets per game prior to the Cooks injury, Stills saw 9 targets last week against the Ravens and picked up 98 receiving yards in the process. This week, Stills gets another banged up secondary in the form of the Pittsburgh Steelers, which should give him ample opportunity to repeat last week's solid performance. Because this week's salaries were released prior to the completion of his Monday night game, you get Stills at a discount for one more week--take advantage while you can.
