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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the RBs and TEs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP TIGHT ENDS
Delanie Walker (Primarily GPP; FD: $5700, DK: $4800). Delanie Walker torched the Eagles last week for 155 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Since Zach Mettenberger took over for Charlie Whitehurst in late October, he has leaned heavily on Delanie Walker a check-down option; in fact, Walker is averaging more targets per game (7.7) than any receiver on the team since Mettenberger took the reigns. This week, both Mettenberger and Walker get a repeat opponent in the form of the Houston Texans, who are 31st in passing yards allowed per game; the last time these teams met in Mettenberger's debut, he threw for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns, one of which went to Walker. Expect more of the same this weekend in Tennessee, where Walker has 100-yard, 2-touchdown upside, but offers it at a dramatic discount over other tight ends with similar upside.
Travis Kelce (GPP only; FD: $5300, DK: $4200). After playing nearly every offensive snap over the previous two weeks during Anthony Fasano's knee injury, the big question coming into this week's plus matchup against the Broncos is, "How much will Kelce play?" Prior to Fasano's injury, Kelce was used mostly in two tight end sets, which limited his snap counts to between 50% to 70% of the Chiefs' offensive plays; Fasano is listed as 'probable' for this weekend's game against the Broncos, which will affect Kelce's playing time...but how much? Through 12 NFL weeks, the Chiefs still have not thrown a touchdown to the wide receiver position, which is a reflection of Alex Smith's reluctance to take chances throwing into any semblance of coverage; that character flaw should play into the hands of Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce. Charles will likely get the lion's share of attention (for good reason) from this Denver front seven that is allowing only 75.7 yards per game on the ground (2nd in the NFL), which means that Kelce has the best personnel matchup on the entire Chiefs offense, particuarly in light of the fact that the Broncos traditionally do not cover the tight end position well. If Kelce plays most of the Chiefs' snaps, he has immense upside in a high-scoring affair...if he returns to plaing in only 50% of their snaps, his upside (and floor) is limited. GPP only.
Kyle Rudolph (GPP only; FD: $5000, DK: $3400). Rudolph made an appearance in this section of "Tips & Picks" in his return from injury a few weeks ago, only to lay a goose-egg in that return. It turns out that Rudolph was on a(n) (unannounced) snap count that day and the Vikings were taking it slowly with him after missing the previous 8 weeks. In his subsequent game (last week), Rudolph played nearly every Vikings' offensive snap, which resulted in a 3-reception, 50-yard day for the hulking tight end. This Sunday, Rudolph gets a plus matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who rank in the bottom third of the league in defending the tight end position. Furthermore, the Vikings have a lot of question marks surrounding their running game (McKinnon = out, Asiata = concussion protocol, Tate = unfamiliar with offense), which might mean that the Vikings will throw a bit more than usual and we all know that Norv Turner knows how to scheme to get his tight end the ball.
CASH GAME TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7700, DK: $7800). Gronk is matchup-proof and plays in the highest-scoring game of the weekend. If you can afford him without crippling your lineups elsewhere, get him into your lineups because his floor is ~14 fantasy points and his ceiling is double that number.
Jimmy Graham (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7500, DK: $7100). Everything written about Gronkowski applies to Graham, except this game is projected to be just slightly lower scoring (58 versus 54.5) and Graham's salary is just a tad lower ($7100 versus $7800). Graham offers the same upside and similar floor to Gronk, but at a 10% discount, so a slight edge goes to Graham this week.
Jordan Reed (Cash and GPP format; FD: $4900, DK: $3200). Both Colt McCoy and Jordan Reed look to be making their respective returns this weekend against the Indianapolis Colts. The gamescript looks to favor the Redskins' passing game, as their defense likely will not be able to keep Andrew Luck from scoring; assuming it plays out as Vegas anticipates, look for McCoy to throw the ball 35+ times with many of those targets being check-downs to his tight end, Jordan Reed. The last time these two played together, Reed saw 7 targets (tied for the team lead) and caught all 7 of them for 40 yards; in McCoy's tenure in the NFL, he has developed a reputation for looking to his tight end when under duress. There is no reason to suggest that McCoy will change his check-down ways this weekend and Reed offers a price discount for cash games that you just cannot achieve with either Gronk or Graham.
GPP RUNNING BACKS
Jamaal Charles (Primarily GPP; FD: $9300, DK: $8600). The Denver Broncos are very, very good against the run. That said, Vegas believes that the Chiefs will score ~ 25 points in this game and we all know that that Alex Smith is not capable of throwing for more than 2 touchdowns on any given Sunday, which means that Charles will get his share of opportunity. The last time these teams met in Week #2, Knile Davis was the starter and he finished with 105 all-purpose yards, 6 receptions, and 2 rushing touchdowns; if Charles can put up a stat line that mirrors what Davis did, it will be nearly enough to reach value for GPP's and he will be sorely underowned due to his poor matchup and high salary.
Arian Foster (Primarily GPP; FD: $8700, DK: $8800). Simply put: The only reason Arian Foster is not a cash game play this week is due to his injury status. If Foster were healthy entering this plus-matchup against the Tennessee Titans, he would be the best cash game play of the weekend; however, groin injuries are easily tweaked, which could result in Foster leaving the game after a few carries (a la Montee Ball in Week #11). After watching the Titans give up huge games to opposing running backs over the past 4 weeks, it would not be surprising to see Foster finish this one with 25 carries for 150+ yards and 2 touchdowns...but if he reinjures himself, your DFS day is over because his salary is so significant. Bottom line: Get some exposure to Foster, but limit it to no more than 75% of your GPP rosters.
Tre Mason (Primarily GPP; FD: $6000, DK: $4600). Tre Mason has some believers in the Rams' coaching staff. After a year of indecisiveness from this crew, it seems that they have finally settled in on a running back; over the past 4 weeks, Mason has touched the ball at least 17 times in each game, which far exceeds the next closest competitor. Mason has looked extremely tough in his starts, but it is particularly impressive if you consider who he has faced thus far: San Francisco, Arizona, Denver, and San Diego...all of whom are strong against the run. This weekend, Mason gets a home start against the Raiders, who give up more rushing yardage than any team in the NFL. Mason is offered at a discount because he has not scored a touchdown in over a month. In this matchup, he has immense upside and the odds in Vegas all point towards him having a nice fantasy day in St. Louis.
Shane Vereen (GPP only; FD: $6600, DK: $5400). Love him or hate him, you have to respect Bill Belichick. As fantasy players, it is near-impossible to guess what Belichick is going to do from week-to-week. Just two weeks ago, Shane Vereen looked to have a solid matchup against the Colts in a high-scoring affair, only to watch Jonas Gray get 37 carries for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns. Last week? Well, Gray sleeps in for Friday's practice and is supplanted by free agent signee, LeGarrette Blount, who finished the day with the majority of the Patriots' carries and 2 rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, here sits Shane Vereen, who has tremendous upside because he can be involved in both phases of the offense, yet he is used so inconsistently that he is often forgotten in DFS circles. For all of these reasons, Vereen is a sneaky GPP play this weekend, particularly on full PPR sites, like DraftKings. Vereen will be low-owned, but he could be heavily-used if this game plays out as Vegas predicts; he needs ~ 20 fantasy points to reach value for GPP contests, which would be easily obtainable if Vereen can find his way into the endzone in Lambeau.
CASH GAME RUNNING BACKS
Le'Veon Bell (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9200, DK: $8700). Everything about this weekend's matchup against the Saints falls into Le'Veon Bell's favor. First, the Saints have given up back-to-back 150+ rushing yard games to Justin Forsett and Jeremy Hill. Next, the Saints lost NT Brodrick Bunkley to a quad tear in their last game, which further affects their ability to stop the run. Next, the Saints are traveling into Pittsburgh on a shortened week after losing to the Ravens on Monday night. Meanwhile, the Steelers are rested from a bye week and Bell will get all the touches he can handle now that LeGarrette Blount was released a few weeks ago; in Bell's first game without Blount, he touched the ball a season-high 35 times. Assuming he gets a similar workload against this defensive front, Bell should have no trouble getting the 20 fantasy points he needs to reach value in cash games.
C.J. Anderson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7800, DK: $6900). At first glance, C.J. Anderson's rushing matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead does not appear to be a good one...until last week, the Chiefs had not given up a rushing touchdown all season. However, the Chiefs were/are probably in store for some negative regression with regards to touchdowns allowed because no team in the entire league yields more yardage per carry than the Chiefs (5.0); likewise, they are 26th in the league in rushing yards per game allowed. Enter C.J. Anderson, who has taken command of the starting RB job in Denver, going for more than 100 all-purpose yards in each of his 3 starts on the season. Anderson is equally attractive for cash game purposes because he has shown the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, which means that his involvement in the offense should not subside if the Chiefs were to jump out to an early lead. At his current salary, Anderson needs only ~ 15 to 18 fantasy points, which is entirely reasonable based on his previous three games against much tougher rushing defenses.
Rashad Jennings (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7100, DK: $6700). The last of a limited list of cash game plays this week is Rashad Jennings, who has a great matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Since the loss of ILB Paul Posluzny in Week #7, the Jags have been yielding 5.3 yards per carry, not to mention an additional 5.8 receptions per game to opposing running backs. At the end of Week #12's games, the Jaguars rated out as ProFootballFocus' 30th worst defense against the run, which bodes well for the Giants, who have struggled blocking for their running backs this season (27th). That said, Rashad Jennings represents the perfect type of running back to play against this Jags' defense because gets 15-20 carries plus another 5-10 targets per game; by diversifying Jennings' touches, the Giants should be able to extract his full fantasy potential, which far surpasses the ~ 15 to 17 fantasy points that he needs to reach value for cash games.
For last-minute advice, player decisions, and injury news on Sunday morning, tune into the “NFL Gameday” webcast at 11:30 AM (EST) on RotoGrinders Live, where John “tipandpick” Lee, Al “Al_Smizzle” Zeidenfeld, and Dan “DB730” Back will analyze all NFL games every week. You can find the webcast at: https://rotogrinders.com/live. All other daily fantasy questions can be directed to John’s Twitter page at: https://twitter.com/tipandpick
