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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Running Game | Passing Game | Team Defense |
Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -13.5 | 31.75 | 50 | +++ | +++ | + |
Green Bay | Minnesota | -9.5 | 29 | 48.5 | +++ | +++ | |
Philadelphia | Tennesse | -10.5 | 29 | 47.5 | +++ | +++ | + |
Denver | Miami | -7 | 28 | 49 | ++ | ++ | |
New England | Detroit | -6.5 | 27.25 | 48 | ++ | ++ | |
New Orleans | Baltimore | -4 | 26.75 | 49.5 | + | + | |
Chicago | Tampa Bay | -6 | 26.25 | 46.5 | ++ | + | |
San Francisco | Washington | -8 | 26 | 44 | ++ | + | ++ |
Dallas | NY Giants | -3.5 | 25.5 | 47.5 | |||
Atlanta | Cleveland | -3.5 | 25.25 | 47 | |||
Kansas City | Oakland | -7 | 25 | 43 | + | ++ | |
San Diego | St. Louis | -5.5 | 24.75 | 44 | + | ||
Seattle | Arizona | -6.5 | 24.25 | 42 | +++ | ||
Baltimore | New Orleans | 4 | 22.75 | 49.5 | |||
Houston | Cincinnati | -2 | 22.75 | 43.5 | |||
Buffalo | NY Jets | -4.5 | 22.25 | 40 | +++ | ||
NY Giants | Dallas | 3.5 | 22 | 47.5 | |||
Cleveland | Atlanta | 3.5 | 21.75 | 47 | |||
Miami | Denver | 7 | 21 | 49 | + | ||
Detroit | New England | 6.5 | 20.75 | 48 | |||
Cincinnati | Houston | 2 | 20.75 | 43.5 | |||
Tampa Bay | Chicago | 6 | 20.25 | 46.5 | |||
Minnesota | Green Bay | 9.5 | 19.5 | 48.5 | + | ||
St. Louis | San Diego | 5.5 | 19.25 | 44 | |||
Tennesse | Philadelphia | 10.5 | 18.5 | 47.5 | + | ||
Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 13.5 | 18.25 | 50 | + | ||
Washington | San Francisco | 8 | 18 | 44 | + | ||
Oakland | Kansas City | 7 | 18 | 43 | + | ||
NY Jets | Buffalo | 4.5 | 17.75 | 40 | |||
Arizona | Seattle | 6.5 | 17.75 | 42 |
THREE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Indianapolis (versus Jacksonville): The Colts were beaten soundly by the Patriots on national television last week, but that has not prevented Vegas from making the Colts a huge favorite at home against the Jags next Sunday. If Indy is to score 32 points, as oddsmakers are projecting, you can bet that Andrew Luck will be tossing the ball all over the field against the 26th ranked passing defense...but he will not have to do it against the likes of Darrelle Revis and Kyle Arrington, which means that he should have significantly more success than he displayed against the Pats last weekend.
- Green Bay (versus Minnesota): Despite 3 touchdowns from the Packers' special teams and/or defense, Aaron Rodgers still managed to throw for 3 touchdowns and 340 yards against the Eagles on Sunday afternoon. Over the past three games, Rodgers is averaging over 350 yards and 3 touchdowns per game and Vegas does not see him slowing down for this one, as evidenced by their projection for 29 points scored by the Packers.
- Philadelphia (versus Tennessee): The Eagles were bludgeoned, 53-20, by the Packers last week in Green Bay, but oddsmakers think they will rebound nicely against the Titans in Week #12. The team total for the Eagles opened at 29, which is a strong indication that Mark Sanchez should show improvement over last week's performance. Do not ignore Vegas--if you shy away from the Eagles' passing game because of one tough game in Green Bay, you may regret it on Monday morning.
RUNNING GAME
- Indianapolis (versus Jacksonville): Ahmad Bradshaw was in the midst of his best season since 2012 when he broke his leg on Sunday night against the Patriots; now that he is out for the season, Trent Richardson should get as many carries as he can handle in the Colts' offense. Dan Herron becomes the Colts' de facto backup running back, but his inexperience will keep him from getting excessive playing time. In a gamescript where the Colts are projected to win by 14 points, if Richardson cannot muster some respectable stats in this one, he never will.
- Green Bay (versus Minnesota): Eddie Lacy has been an interesting story in 2014. After touching the ball 20+ times in 10 out of 15 games last year, Lacy has only had a single 20-touch game all season in 2014. Why has he been limited and will it continue? Good question...perhaps due to concussion concerns, perhaps due to gamescript. No matter the reason, the betting line on this game would indicate that Lacy could be in store for a solid game because the Packers are projected to score over four touchdowns and win by a 9-point margin, which means that Lacy should see extra carries in the second half.
- Philadelphia (versus Tennessee): Rostering an Eagles' running back at this juncture feels like a losing proposition, as LeSean McCoy has been below average for much of the season. The Eagles' offensive line is getting healthy and they get a plus matchup against the Titans, who are ranked 31st in the league against the rush (143.5 yards/game), coming off a short week, and will have to play in an unfriendly Lincoln Financial Field. As high-scoring 10+ point favorites, the Eagles' running backs, including Darren Sproles, could be in store for solid fantasy days.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Seattle (versus Arizona): The Seahawks return home to face the 1-loss Cardinals after a tough loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead in Week #11. The Seahawks will be a great GPP defense because they have immense upside on any given Sunday when they play at home; however, they will be lesser-owned than normally because they are facing a Cardinals team that has only dropped one game on the season and because the salary will be steep. Vegas projects the Cardinals as the lowest-scoring team on the week, which should put the Seahawks' defense squarely in your sights this weekend.
- Buffalo (versus NY Jets): The game with the lowest Vegas total on the weekend pits the Buffalo Bills versus the New York Jets. Oddsmakers project this one in favor of the Bills, 22-18, which could be a battle of field goals in Buffalo. For their part, the Bills defense has been consistent this season; they rank 7th against the pass and 9th against the run, which means that Michael Vick could have his work cut out for him on Sunday. If the current weather extends into the weekend, it could be a bitterly cold, snowy game in Buffalo, making all scoring, including field goals, near-impossible.
TWO STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Denver (versus Miami): The Broncos surprised the world last week when they could not keep the game close against the St. Louis Rams. In their defense, the Rams schemed well and got plenty of pressure on Peyton Manning, whose offensive line had only allowed 9 sacks coming into that game; furthermore, the Broncos lost three key players to injuries during the game, including Emmanuel Sanders, Julius Thomas, and Montee Ball. Denver returns home this week to host the Miami Dolphins and Vegas does not believe the loss of Sanders and Ball will significantly affect their output, as they are projected to score 28 points. Without Sanders and possibly Orange Julius, Demaryius Thomas looks to be in a good spot in this one and maybe Wes Welker will awaken from his season-long funk.
- New England (versus Detroit): The rumors of Tom Brady's demise were greatly overexaggerated; since Week #5, Brady is averaging 313 passing yards and 3.6 touchdowns per game. Last week, against the Colts, Brady continued to dazzle, but RB Jonas Gray stole the show with 4 TD's; against the #1 ranked rushing defense in the NFL, Gray could struggle, which means that Brady will need to air it out to put up the 27 points that Vegas expects them to score at home against the Lions.
RUNNING GAME
- Denver (versus Miami): If Peyton Manning is handcuffed by injuries to two key receivers (Sanders and Julius Thomas), the Broncos could turn to C.J. Anderson to carry an additional load against the Dolphins at Mile-High Stadium. Anderson has back-to-back 100+ all-purpose yard games and should not have to worry about getting too many carries stolen by other backs, as both Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball are both out with injuries.
- New England (versus Detroit): Jonas Gray anybody? After a 4-touchdown performance against the Colts on Sunday Night Football, Gray will be looking to keep things rolling against the staunch Detroit Lions' front seven, who are allowing only 68 rushing yards per game on the year. The matchup is not promising, but oddsmakers still believe the Pats will score 4 touchdowns and they will have to come from somewhere.
- Chicago (versus Tampa Bay): Matt Forte is averaging 24 touches per game on the season. Twenty four. As touchdown favorites over the Bucs, who are 22nd against the rush this year, Forte is in a good spot to acquire his share of fantasy goodness in a game where his team is projected to score nearly 4 touchdowns.
- San Francisco (versus Washington): The recipe to beating the Redskins has been through the air this season, but if they jump to an early lead at home, expect the Niners to pound the ground with Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde (advantage to Gore, who is still get most of the carries). As 8-point favorites projected to score nearly four touchdowns, this is an entirely reasonable scenario.
TEAM DEFENSE
- San Francisco (versus Washington): The Niners are big favorites over the Redskins in San Francisco and Vegas does not project more than 20 points for Washington. Against the Buccaneers at home last weekend, the Redskins scored 7 points, so Vegas might be onto something...
- Kansas City (versus Oakland): The Chiefs won a battle last weekend in Arrowhead against the visiting Seahawks. This week, they get a reprieve when they travel to Oakland to play the winless Raiders in the Coliseum; as they battle out a first-place tie with Denver in the AFC West, expect Kansas City to keep their foot on the gas and run right over this Oakland team that is averaging 15.2 points on the season. Vegas believes this will be a similar gamescript with the Raiders scoring less than 20 points on the day.
ONE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- New Orleans (versus Baltimore): Drew Brees and the Saints disappointed in a great matchup against the Bengals last weekend; it was the third consecutive sub-300 yard game for Drew Brees, despite playing at home in two of those games. Now Brees has lost rookie Brandin Cooks for the season, which cannot help the Saints passing game. That said, the Saints are still 4-point favorites in a primetime game that is projected to have a high game total, which is generally a recipe for a lot of fantasy goodness.
- Chicago (versus Tampa Bay): Just when everybody was ready to give up on Jay Cutler, he bounced back last week with a 300-yard, 3-touchdown performance against the Vikings. This weekend, he gets a juicy matchup against a Tampa Bay Bucs' secondary that is ranked 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. If Alterraun Verner is out again this week, give Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffery an extra bump.
- San Francisco (versus Washington): The Redskins travel to the West Coast to play the 49'ers this weekend in a matchup that Vegas believes will be a cakewalk for the home team. The Niners are slated to score nearly 4 touchdowns against the Redskins, which could bode well for Colin Kaeparnick, who has thrown for only one touchdown in each of his previous three games; meanwhile, the Redskins' weakness has been in defending the pass, as they are ranked 29th in passing touchdowns allowed (20) and last in interceptions (3) on the season.
- Miami (versus Denver): Ryan Tannehill has not thrown for 300 yards all season despite doing so multiple times over his previous two seasons. This week, the Dolphins travel to Denver to take on the Broncos, who are 2nd in the league against the rush, which means that Tannehill could be asked to work overtime. Vegas projects a gamescript where Miami will be playing from behind, which again suggests that the Dolphins' passing game will be emphasized. If the salaries are reasonable for Tannehill, Mike Wallace, Jarvis Landry, and Charles Clay, a Dolphin QB-receiver tandem could be worth a chance in a large-field GPP.
- Minnesota (versus Green Bay): Last week, the Packers throttled the Eagles 53-20, yet QB Mark Sanchez finished the day with 16 (FanDuel) and/or 19 (DraftKings) fantasy points for a minimal salary. This weekend, Teddy Bridgewater should see a similar gamescript with the visiting game playing catchup in Lambeau. Vegas projects the Vikings as nearly 10-point underdogs who should score about three touchdowns; if those scores come through the air, Bridgewater would be interesting fodder for a GPP roster.
- Tennessee (versus Philadelphia): Rookie QB Zach Mettenberger gets his best matchup of his short NFL career this week against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are ranked 28th against the pass (yards/game) and 30th in passing touchdowns allowed (22). Vegas believes the Titans will fall behind at Lincoln Financial Field, which should force Mettenberger to throw the ball to keep pace with the strong Eagle offense. Assuming the oddsmakers are correct, a Mettenberger-WR (Justin Hunter or Kendall Wright) pairing would be a both inexpensive and low-owned tournament option.
- Jacksonville (versus Indianapolis): It's a risky proposition, but there is almost zero possibility that the Jaguars run the ball more than 20 times against the Colts this weekend; the Jags are the board's biggest underdog at 14-points, which means that they will almost assuredly be forced to throw the ball early and often in Indy. A Blake Bortles-Cecil Shorts tandem could be interesting, particularly now that WR Allen Robinson has been placed on injured reserve for the season.
- Washington (versus San Francisco): Robert Griffin III and the Redskins will have to travel cross-country to face off against the San Francisco 49'ers on Sunday in a game that Vegas believes will be controlled by the home team. If the oddsmakers are correct, the Redskins may have to resort to throwing the ball early, which could benefit both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, both of whom should have reduced salaries due to poor performances against the Buccaneers a week ago.
- Oakland (versus Kansas City): Once again, Oakland appears as a one-star passing play because they are always at least a touchdown underdog, which means that Derek Carr should get plenty of opportunity to throw to his receivers. Not surprisingly, Carr has thrown the ball often; he is averaging 37 passing attempts per game, good enough for 7th in the NFL...but his touchdown total is 13 (tied for 15th in the league). If you are looking to pair Carr with a receiver, both James Jones and Mychal Rivera have been seeing a lot of targets in recent weeks.
RUNNING GAME
- New Orleans (versus Baltimore): Saints' RB Mark Ingram has at least 30 touches in each of his previous three games. This week, he faces a Baltimore front seven that is ranked 5th against the rush in 2014, which might mean that the Saints may be forced to get away from the run; at home, however, the Saints' offense is generally quite solid and Vegas thinks that they will still score 27 points against the Ravens, so Ingram should still be on your fantasy radar this week despite the poor matchup.
- Kansas City (versus Oakland): The last time these two teams met was Week #15 last year when Jamaal Charles totaled over 200 all-purpose yards and 4 touchdowns en route to a 56-31 victory over the Raiders in Oakland. Could we be in store for a repeat performance? Likely not four touchdowns, but a couple would not be surprising for the ever-reliable Charles.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Indianapolis (versus Jacksonville): The Jacksonville Jaguars are averaging only 15.8 points per game on the season, which always keep opposing defenses in play in fantasy circles. However, the Jags' offensive line and the play of rookie QB Blake Bortles adds to that allure because the O-line has yielded more sacks than any other NFL team and Blake Bortles leads the league in interceptions thrown, both of which could boost the otherwise pedestrian Colts' defense into DFS contention this weekend.
- Philadelphia (versus Tennessee): Another subpar defense that is in play on Sunday belongs to the Eagles; Vegas' line projects their opponents to score only 18 points in Philadelphia. While the Eagles' secondary has been extremely poor, they get to face a rookie quarterback in Zach Mettenberger, who is just as liable to throw 3 interceptions as he is to throw 3 touchdowns...particularly in an unfriendly environment in Philadelphia.
- San Diego (versus St. Louis): After 3 consecutive consecutive losses, the Chargers were in desperate need of their bye week in Week #10; last week, they returned and held the Oakland Raiders to 6 points in their first game back. This week, they will host the St. Louis Rams, who bested the Broncos at home last Sunday, but Vegas is not buying into the hype, as they have the Rams scoring less than 20 points on the day.