For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the QBs and WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday. Finally, in the next article, the topic will center on RBs and TEs.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP QUARTERBACKS
Peyton Manning (Primarily GPP; FD: $9900, DK: $9400). The Broncos return home after an extended road trip that saw them lose two out of three games. On that road trip, Peyton Manning still averaged 389 passing yards and 3 touchdowns per game; this week, the Broncos return home, where they are undefeated this season and need to win to capitalize on the Chiefs' loss in Oakland on Thursday night. Manning's matchup, however, is not ideal; the Dolphins are ProFootballFocus' 4th best pass coverage defense and are 2nd in the league in passing yards allowed per game. That said, the Dolphins have not faced an offense as dynamic as the Broncos this year and they most certainly have not done so in on the road. Recency bias, the matchup, and his salary will keep most DFS gamers away from Peyton on Sunday, but Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas are both practicing, which means that Manning should have his full arsenal of weaponry available to put up some massive numbers at home in a must-win situation.
Joe Flacco (Primarily GPP; FD: $7800, DK: $6700). Joe Flacco and the Ravens will travel to New Orleans to take on the struggling Saints this weekend. The Saints have two straight home losses and will be looking to rebound against a Baltimore team that is susceptible through the air, which plays right into Drew Brees' hands (err...arm?); since All-Pro CB Jimmy Smith went on the injured reserve several weeks ago, opposing quarterbacks have had their way with the Ravens' secondary. Furthemore, Vegas thinks that the Saints will bounce back, as evidenced by their 27-point team total on Drew Brees and company on Monday night. Assuming the gamescript plays out in this manner, Joe Flacco could be in store for a big night himself. The Saints are the league's worst team in pass coverage and have given up 400+ passing yards to both Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan this season; Flacco has that type of upside (ask the Tampa Bay Bucs), which makes him a sneaky GPP play on Monday night.
Eli Manning (GPP only; FD: $7200, DK: $5800). The 'other' Manning brother makes an appearance in Tips & Picks this week because of his plus matchup against the Dallas Cowboys at home. The Cowboys have not yet had that game. You know that game. It's the game where the Cowboys look to be in a good spot, controlling their own destiny, fresh off a bye week, favored by Vegas, and they fall apart at kickoff, giving up 500 total yards of offense and get trounced 44-20. Enter Eli Manning, who has put together multiple 4 touchdown games against the Cowboys over his career including one just last year; in fact, in Week #7, Manning threw for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns against this same Dallas unit in AT&T Stadium. Most people are going to remember last week, however, when the Giants traveled 3000 miles to face a far better defense and Eli threw five interceptions. Use that to your advantage and seriously consider grabbing Eli for your GPP rosters because both his salary and his ownership numbers will be ripe for the picking.
Brian Hoyer (GPP only; FD: $7000, DK: $5900). Brian Hoyer has a fantastic matchup against the Atlanta Falcons' secondary this weekend in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons rate out as ProFootballFocus' 29th worst team in pass coverage, allow more passing yards per game than any other team in the league, and put almost no pressure on opposing quarterbacks (31st in sacks). To their credit, the Falcons are generally a much better team at home, which means that this game could become a high-scoring, back-and-forth passfest. If it does, expect Hoyer to look for Josh Gordon on deep routes and Andrew Hawkins on underneath options; Gordon has the tougher coverage corner in Desmond Trufant, but he will still be the better redzone option. The trick will be to choose the correct tandem receiver for your GPP lineup. My edge goes to Hawkins because Gordon's ownership is close to 20% on the early slates.
CASH GAME QUARTERBACKS
Andrew Luck (Cash and GPP format; FD: $10,300, DK: $9700). Ten games...nine of them with 300+ passing yards. Ten games...nine of them with multiple passing touchdowns. Andrew Luck is as consistent as they come as the QB position and he gets a repeat matchup of Week #3 against the Jaguars, this time at home, when he threw for 370 yards and 4 touchdowns. To expect that type of performance again is probably not realistic, but 300 passing yards and 3 TD's is entirely reasonable (Vegas projects the Colts at 32 team points), which would pay off his salary in every format.
Drew Brees (Cash and GPP format; FD: $9000, DK: $8200). Drew Brees has fallen off a few DFS radars as of late because of atypical performances by the future Hall-of-Famer. Over the past three weeks, Brees has not reached the 300-passing yard threshold even once, which is troubling for a player who threw for 300-yards eleven times in 2013. This week, however, Brees gets off schneid. The Baltimore Ravens are coming to town and bringing their banged up secondary, which should help right the ship for Brees on Monday night. Aside from the Ravens' overrated secondary, why pick Brees as your cash game QB this week? First, Brees is still throwing the ball a ton...he is averaging nearly 42 passes per game; good things happen when you throw that many times. Next, Vegas believes in Brees; they have the Saints scoring ~ 27 points against the Ravens. Also, the Ravens are still quite solid against the rush, which should mean that Mark Ingram's opportunities will be more limited this week than they have been recently. Lastly, Brees' salary is about $2K less than the rest of the upper-tier QB's this week, which means he only needs 18-22 points to reach value for cash games...if he throws for 300 yards, he only needs to toss two touchdowns to do so.
Mark Sanchez (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7500, DK: $6800). Sanchez makes his third consecutive appearance in the cash game section of Tips & Picks because, frankly, he keeps reaching value. Last week was not pretty, but Sanchez got his stats, finishing with 18 and 21 points on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. If he can muster a similar stat line this week, Sanchez will once again reach value for cash games. He will have to do it against the Tennessee Titans, who are coming off a short week, losing to the Steelers on Monday Night Football; the Titans have a few coverage cornerbacks who have been steadily beaten this season (Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Jason McCourty), who are no match for this Chip Kelly offense and the receivers that the Eagles put on the field each Sunday. Simply put, Sanchez' salary is too low because he needs 260 yards passing and a touchdown to reach value, which is something that most quarterbacks could accomplish in this system.
GPP WIDE RECEIVERS
Josh Gordon (Primarily GPP; FD: $7800, DK: $6300) and Andrew Hawkins (GPP only; FD: $6200, DK: $4900). As discussed above with Brian Hoyer, the Cleveland Browns have a plus matchup against the Atlanta Falcons' weak secondary on Sunday. The hype surrounding Josh Gordon has been immense and it will be interesting to see how the Browns deploy him against the Falcons in his first game back after a 10-game suspension. Gordon is, no doubt, the most talented receiver on the team (possibly the league?), but he is still a big question mark due to not practicing with the team until this week, a new offensive coordinator (Kyle Shanahan), his individual matchup against Falcons' CB Desmond Trufant, and questions regarding his expected snap count; that said, he possesses massive upside and should be on your GPP radar. Andrew Hawkins carried the load in Gordon's absence and did an admirable job, averaging ~ 9 targets per game and preventing opposing defenses from stacking the box against the Browns' running backs. In this matchup, Hawkins carries a lot of upside because he gets the weaker coverage corners, he should be free to run a slew of underneath routes while Gordon stretches the field, and he has 10 games of experience with Hoyer at QB. Both players make interesting GPP prospects, albeit for slightly different reasons. [ESPN's Adam Schefter announced Sunday morning that Josh Gordon will likely see only 20-30 snaps, per a league source; if this is true, you should avoid Gordon in all formats!]
Reggie Wayne (Primarily GPP; FD: $6900, DK: $5400). Reggie Wayne is not the player he used to be...but against the Jaguars' secondary, he does not need to be that player. Wayne is still highly-targeted in the Colts offense, averaging almost the same number of targets per game as T.Y. Hilton; he has not, however, put together a huge game yet this season, which has kept his salary quite low for a WR2 in this offense. This weekend, the Colts are slated to score 30+ points and Wayne should get plenty of opportunity to get a score or two; while everybody else is rostering T.Y. Hilton, the savvy GPP move is to take the savings, the lesser ownership, similar upside, and roster Reggie Wayne for $2K less.
Vincent Jackson (Primarily GPP; FD: $6500, DK: $5200). You do remember that Vincent Jackson is a wide receiver on the Buccaneers, right? Yeah...the 6'5" guy with nearly 100 targets on the season? The guy who scored 15 touchdowns over the previous two season? Yeah...that guy. VJax is the forgotten man in Tampa right now, but he has just been unlucky thus far--he does not appear to have lost any speed, nor has he gotten any shorter, nor has he forgotten how to run a route. The fact is that Jackson is tied for the 7th most targets in the entire league and, yet, only has two touchdowns on the season. This Sunday, Jackson will line up against the Chicago Bears' secondary that is leading the league in passing touchdowns allowed and is rated 26th in the league in pass coverage; he will get a double-touchdown game this season and his salary is just too low to ignore at this juncture.
Torrey Smith (Primarily GPP; FD: $6500, DK: $5400). Torrey Smith gets one of the best matchups of the week against the New Orleans Saints' secondary. The Saints' cornerbacks continue to get torched by opposing offenses and the results are reflected in their dead-last pass coverage ranking on ProFootballFocus. Torrey Smith is the prototypical GPP play because he gets limited targets (averaging 5.6 per game), but his targets are generally high-impact (deep passes & redzone targets). Smith will initially line up against Saints' CB Corey White, who is ranked 60th out of 70 qualifying cornerbacks in the entire league, but he should have no problem gaining space between any of these defenders. At his current salary, Smith could literally reach value in one play.
Cecil Shorts (GPP only; FD: $6300, DK: $5400). This one is really simple. In their last game, the Jacksonville Jaguars lost rookie WR Allen Robinson for the season to a foot injury. This week, the Jags will be playing from behind for nearly 4 full quarters, which means that Blake Bortles' arm will be getting plenty of exercise. His most trusted receiver is Cecil Shorts, who has averaged 8.7 targets per game this year; you should expect to see plenty of Cecil Shorts in this game because Bortles' other options are two unpolished (although highly-talented) rookies (Allen Hurns and Marquis Lee). Vontae Davis plays nearly 100% of his plays against the LWR and the Jags will be smart to throw one of those rookies to that side to act as a decoy, while Shorts collects his targets from the right side (as he has done most of the season).
CASH GAME WIDE RECEIVERS
T.Y. Hilton (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8600, DK: $7600). The Colts are projected to score 32 points and there is one person on the team who will be guaranteed to get his shares of opportunities to score: T.Y. Hilton. Hilton is a target monster in this offense, gathering 9.1 targets per game; however, his upside has been limited because he only has three touchdowns on the season. In fact, RB Ahmad Bradshaw has led the team in redzone opportunities (14); those opportunities will be distributed elsewhere now that Bradshaw has been placed on injured reserve with a broken fibula. Hilton should line up against Jags' CB Dwayne Gratz, who is allowing an opposing quarterbacks' rating of 130.6, which bodes well for Hilton's opportunity in this game. To reach value in cash game format, Hilton needs ~ 18 fantasy points, which is 6 receptions, 80 yards, and a touchdown...all of which should be a walk in the park against this Jags' secondary.
Brandon Marshall (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8300, DK: $7100). The Bears' receivers get a plus-plus matchup against the Tampa Bay Bucs on Sunday. Both Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall should be in good spots to put up solid fantasy numbers because of how poor the Bucs' secondary has been in 2014; Marshall gets the nod here because he is more consistent in the redzone (8 TD's versus Jeffery's 4 TD's). The Bucs are ranked 30th in the league in passing yards allowed and they are 27th in pass coverage; Marshall should see a lot of action out of the slot and would therefore be covered by Isiah Frey, who has been less than stellar this season. When he is not in the slot, the Bucs will still have problems covering Marshall because Tampa Bay CB Alterraun Verner, ranked 60th out of 70 qualifying cornerbacks, has been nursing a hamstring injury; if he sits, one can only assume the backup CB is even less talented.
Odell Beckham (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7500, DK: $6100). Odell Beckham received a seal of approval from Richard Sherman after their last game...and for good reason. Beckham has looked spectacular since Victor Cruz was lost for the season with an injury. Over the past three games, Beckham has 33 targets (11 per game) and 21 receptions for 357 yards; in those games, he faced solid coverage from guys like Richard Sherman and Vontae Davis. This week, he will match up against Cowboys' CB Brandon Carr, who is allowing an opposing QB rating of 108.6 when they throw in his direction. Beckman is a special talent, yet his salary is still low because he has not scored a touchdown in a month; roster his this week and let him score one (or two?) on your roster.
Sammy Watkins (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7500, DK: $5600). After 6-feet of snow fell in Buffalo over the past week, the venue has changed to Detroit's Ford Field. Just a few weeks ago, the Jets got their first (of many) glimpse of rookie WR Sammy Watkins and he burnt them for 157 yards receiving and a touchdown. The truth is that the Jets' secondary is extremely untalented, as evidenced by their 25 touchdowns allowed versus 3 interceptions, and Sammy Watkins should have a similar performance this week, particularly if he once again gets 8+ targets in this game. A 15-point fantasy performance would reach value for cash games, which is 6 catches, 60 yards, and a touchdown...all of which seems really obtainable in this matchup.
Keenan Allen (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6500, DK: $4900). Keenan Allen is yet another WR whose salary is depressed simply due to a lack of touchdowns; if opportunity continues to present itself, the touchdowns will follow. In his rookie season last year, Allen scored 8 touchdowns, yet he only has a single touchdown this year despite being targeted similarly in the passing game (8.6 targets per game). Allen's salary is so depressed that he needs only 5 receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown to reach value; if he cannot manage the touchdown, he needs an 8 reception game with ~ 80 receiving yards. At the lower end of the salary range this week, rostering Allen will afford you the ability to take more expensive options elsewhere without feeling like you are sacrificing quality at the position.
