Photo: Ron Chenoy, USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space.  FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season.  Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the game script for Thursday Night Football, while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend.  The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs.  Let’s dive in…

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMESCRIPT

The red-hot Kansas City Chiefs travel to Oakland to take on the winless Raiders at the Coliseum in an AFC West matchup on Thursday night.  The Chiefs, winners of six straight, are 7.5-point favorites over the hometown Raiders and will look to keep pace with the Broncos, with whom they are tied in first place.  The Raiders have little to play for, other than their jobs, but there is always a fantasy factor for us DFS guys, so let’s take a deeper look…

First, the easy part—the Raiders’ offense.  Oakland is averaging only 15.2 points scored per game and is the only team in the NFL not averaging more than 300 yards of total offense per game, which makes rostering any of their offensive players an unattractive proposition.  Furthermore, the Chiefs are ranked 1^st against the pass (yards/game) and have not allowed a single rushing touchdown all season, despite allowing a hefty 4.8 yards per carry.  The only intriguing possibility on the Raiders is 2^nd year RB, Latavius Murray, who is supposed to see increased opportunity this week after breaking the Raiders first 20+ yard carry last week against the Chargers; at his salary, Murray could be an interesting GPP option.

With regards to the Chiefs, there are a slew of options and they start with Jamaal Charles.  In their last meeting, Charles scored 4 receiving touchdowns and accumulated over 200 all-purpose yards en route to a 56-31 victory in Week #16 last season; this year, the Raiders’ rushing defense is improved, allowing only 3.8 yards per carry, but they still rank near the bottom in rushing yards allowed per game and continue to give up significant receiving yards to opposing running backs.  For these reasons, Charles is definitely an option for your DFS rosters on Thursday night slates.

In the passing game, Alex Smith and his receivers have been limited; in their previous game against the Seahawks, Smith made 16 passing attempts.  In their last eight games, of which the Chiefs have won seven, Alex Smith has attempted more than 30 passes only once; thus, there is little reason to think things will change this week against the Raiders, particularly in light of the fact that the Chiefs are winning without needing to throw the ball often.  If they do decide to throw the ball, they should have some plus matchups because the Raiders are without both starting cornerbacks; both TJ Carrie and Carlos Rogers have been announced as ‘out’ for this game.  With a Chiefs’ victory likely being a foregone conclusion, expect TE Anthony Fasano to sit out another week with his knee injury, which should give Travis Kelce extra opportunities for the game…although he had arguably a better situation last week against the Seahawks, ranked last against defending the tight end position, and was still only targeted a handful of times.  The receiver with the most upside in this offense is Dwayne Bowe, who is getting nearly 7 targets per game and leads receivers in redzone targets on the season; that said, the Chiefs still have yet to throw a TD pass to a wide receiver yet this year, so there is risk in rostering Bowe, despite the plus matchup.

This game does not offer much entertainment value on paper, but perhaps the Raiders will show up and play the role of spoiler?  Probably not…but at least we have the option of making it more interesting with rostering a player or two from the game; of those options, Charles is at the top of the list with Dwayne Bowe and Latavius Murray trailing in the distance.

Predicted Score:  Kansas City 27, Oakland 10.

Here are my rated selections for both cash games & GPPs:

4-stars:  None

3-stars:  Jamaal Charles (DK @ $7900, FD @ $9100)

2-stars:  Dwayne Bowe (DK @ $4100, FD @ $6000), Chiefs' Defense (DK @ $3400, FD @ $5400)

1-star:  Latavius Murray (DK @ $3000, FD @ $5100)  

KICKERS

Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend.  If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team.  With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):

Phil Dawson, SF ($5100 versus Washington):  The 49ers are ranked 31st in redzone efficiency, scoring a touchdown on only 39.4% of their redzone opportunities, which has done well by Phil Dawson, who is averaging 9.0 fantasy points per game this season.  This week, the Niners host the Redskins, who just gave up 27 points to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Washington; if the trends continue (SF being unable to punch in touchdowns; Washington being unable to slow down opposing offenses), Dawson could see plenty of work on Sunday in San Francisco.

Shayne Graham ($4700 versus Baltimore):  The Saints' offense has looked pedestrian as of late, but they are still 2nd in the league in total offensive yards per game (424.5).  Against the Ravens, who lost Jimmy Smith to the IR a few weeks ago, Drew Brees should be able to move the ball effectively, even if the eventually Saints stall inside the 20-yard line due to a lack of redzone targets beyond Jimmy Graham...if they do stall, the 'other' Graham is a solid kicker at a nice price point.

Brandon McManus ($4500 versus Miami):  It will be interesting to watch the Broncos' offense this weekend without Emmanuel Sanders (and possibly Julius Thomas); last week, the entire offense sputtered against the Rams in St. Louis.  Vegas does not seem to believe the Broncos will have problems scoring (they are projected to score 28 points), which means that they should be in the redzone often.  At minimum salary, McManus offers as much upside as any kicker on the board and will likely be the most highly-owned kicker on FanDuel for those reasons. 

TEAM DEFENSES

Colts (versus Jaguars):   (FD: $5600, DK: $3200).  Blake Bortles has nearly thrown double the amount of interceptions as he has thrown touchdowns on the season; more than one of those interceptions has resulted in touchdowns for the other team...which makes targeting opposing defenses against the Jaguars an attractive, high-end option for DFS purposes.  Bortles' problems are not just his own--his offensive line is leading the league in sacks allowed (39) and are next-to-last in points scored per game (15.8) in the league.  The gamescript would appear to put a lot of pressure on Bortles to throw often in the second half, which might result in hurried passes, turnovers, sacks, and other goodness for the Colts' defense.  If you can afford them, get them into your lineups.

Bills (versus NY Jets):   (FD: $5200, DK: $3300).  As of the writing of this article, there are 220 tons of snow to be removed from Ralph Wilson Stadium before Sunday's game against the Jets.  Even if all of that snow is removed prior to Sunday, both teams will have to contend with a playing surface that is not ideal.  Furthermore, the Bills' defense has been steadily improving throughout the season; they are 1st in the league in sacks, while the Jets are ranked 25th in sacks allowed, which does not bode well for Michael Vick.  Lastly, this game has the lowest total on the Vegas boards at 38.5 (it is currently 'off' at most major casinos), indicating that the Bills' defense should be on your DFS radar.

Seahawks (versus Arizona):   (FD: $5000, DK: $3200).  The Seahawks' defense is probably as cheap as it has been on major DFS sites over the past two years.  While they have only topped double-digits twice this season, the Seahawks are still leaders in most every major defensive statistical category, including 3rd against the pass and 7th against the rush (yards/game).  This week, they host Drew Stanton and the 1-loss Arizona Cardinals, which should be enough to keep most DFS gamers off of the Seahawks' defense; however, Vegas projects the Cardinals to score only 17 points, which should be telling the rest of us something...the Cardinals could be in store for a major letdown in this tough venue.

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