For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the RBs and TEs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP TIGHT ENDS
Jason Witten (GPP only; FD: $5700, DK: $4400). In each of the Cowboys' previous three games, Jason Witten has been targeted at least 7 times by Tony Romo. Witten is often overshadowed in daily circles by the likes of the Big 3 (Gronk/Graham/Julius) or the "Flavor of the Week" (Fleener this week), but Witten is consistent and always offers 2-touchdown upside in this offense. When he lines up against the Giants on Sunday night, Witten will see a defense that has allowed double-touchdown nights to opposing tight ends on three different occasions this season, including the Cowboys in Week #7 (Gavin Escobar). The combination of these factors (high upside, plus matchup, and low ownership) makes Jason Witten an enticing GPP option that could separate your rosters from the masses.
Larry Donnell (Primarily GPP; FD: $5500, DK: $3900). On the other side of the field from Jason Witten will be another tight end with a nice matchup and upside: Larry Donnell. Donnell started the season on fire, catching 25 passes and scoring 4 touchdowns over the first four weeks; he, however, followed up those games with a few clunkers (a goose-egg in Week #5 and 1 catch for 6 yards in Week #6), which dropped him off a lot of DFS radars. More recently, Donnell has been hit-or-miss, scoring touchdowns in in two of the Giants' last four games. On Sunday night, he will get a great matchup against the Cowboys, who have been friendly to opposing tight ends this year--only the Chicago Bears' defense has given up more fantasy points to the position. At a very reasonable salary, Donnell needs only ~ 15 points to acheive value for GPP's, which is 6 receptions, 50 yards, and a touchdown...an entirely feasible stat line against this Cowboys' defense.
Niles Paul (GPP only; FD: $4800, DK: $3000). Jordan Reed will watch his teammates on Sunday due to a hamstring injury. Niles Paul will get the start in his absence and has put up some nice fantasy numbers with Robert Griffin III at the helm. In Weeks #1 and 2 with RG3 at QB, Paul was the only active TE and he caught 12 passes for 185 receiving yards and a touchdown in those two games; after Griffin was injured and Jordan Reed returned, Paul saw his involvement in the Redskins' offense diminish. This week, however, Paul should get increased action and is at near-minimum price on both sites; his matchup against the Niners would appear to be less-than-optimal, but LB Patrick Willis was placed on the injured reserve list a few weeks ago, which can only help Paul's upside.
CASH GAME TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7900, DK: $7900). The most expensive tight end on the board and for good reason: Gronk is a man amongst boys when he gets the rock in his hands--last week, he caught a touchdown pass at the Colts' 20-yard line and just shoved defenders away like they were children as he sauntered into the endzone. The matchup this week against the Lions would appear to be less-than-optimal, but Gronk is matchup-proof and is capable of a 100-yard/2-touchdown game against any defense in the league. Detroit is very good in preventing offenses from running the ball (68.8 yards per game; 3.0 yards per carry...both best in the NFL), which means that Tom Brady should be looking to Gronkowski often in this one. If you can afford to slot him into your rosters, he is the tight end you want in your cash games this weekend.
Jimmy Graham (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7500, DK: $7000). As an alternative to Gronk, Jimmy Graham is a close second at the tight end position. Graham is slightly less expensive on both sites and offers a similar floor with the same upside as Gronkowski. With Saints star rookie WR Brandin Cooks being placed on injured reserve earlier this week, Graham could be in store for even more action than he generally sees in the Saints' offense and he is already averaging nearly 8 targets per game. Las Vegas projects the Saints to score nearly 4 touchdowns in this one and it is unlikely that they will do much on the ground against the Ravens, who are 5th in the league against the rush (3.4 yards per carry), which means that Brees will probably throw 40 times in this one and Graham will almost assuredly see 25% of those targets and at least one score.
Coby Fleener (Cash and GPP format; FD: $5400, DK: $5200). When Dwayne Allen left the game with an ankle injury against the Patriots last Sunday night, Coby Fleener stepped in and filled the role superbly. Fleener caught 7 passes for 144 yards and was everywhere that Andrew Luck needed him to be. This week, Allen has already been announced as 'out,' which means that Fleener will get the nod against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game where the Colts are likely to score 30+ points. Of all the cash game options at tight end, it would appear that Fleener is the one player who is almost guaranteed to reach value because his salary is probably at least $1K less than it should be, given his matchup and his likely workload. He will be the most highly-owned TE in every game format this weekend because, at the discounted pricetag, he allows you to pay up at other positions.
GPP RUNNING BACKS
LeSean McCoy (Primarily GPP; FD: $7700, DK: $6200). Let's try this again. For the past month, LeSean McCoy has made an appearance as either a GPP or cash game play in Tips & Picks, yet he has largely disappointed those of us who have rostered him over that span. McCoy's lack of fantasy production has not been due to a lack of opportunity (which is why he continues to get our attention); McCoy trails only DeMarco Murray in rushing attempts and has been averaging nearly 20 attempts per game. This week could be a breakout week for the running back as he gets a great matchup against the Tennessee Titans, who just imploded on Monday night when they yielded > 200 rushing yards to the Steelers' Le'Veon Bell. Assuming McCoy gets his 20+ touches in this game, there is no reason that he cannot experience some positive regression and finish with a similar stat line to Bell, particularly in light of the fact that Vegas has set the Eagles' team total at 30 points.
Denard Robinson (GPP only; FD: $7500, DK: $5600). Denard Robinson has been impressive since taking over the lead RB position in Jacksonville; over his four starts, he is averaging 97 rushing yards and a touchdown per game. This week, Robinson will get a nice matchup against the Colts' front seven, who are giving up 4.6 yards per carry on the season (30th in the NFL). The biggest concern with rostering Robinson will be whether or not the game flow (i.e., a Colts' blowout) will preclude him from touching the ball in the second half; however, he has gotten at least 17 touches in each of his starts, three of which the Jags trailed for most of the game. Thus, it seems likely that Robinson will get the ball at least 16-18 times...if he can break one of those touches for a long touchdown, he could come very close to reaching value for GPP games and will be less than 5% owned across all daily sites.
C.J. Anderson (Primarily GPP; FD: $7200, DK: $6000). In daily circles this week, there is a lot of reluctance to roster Denver Broncos after questions remain regarding their surprising loss to the Rams last week. Three words describe last week's loss to the Rams: Any Given Sunday. The loss was a combination of key injuries (Sanders and Julius Thomas), good gameplanning (Rams blitz packages), and the Broncos looking past an otherwise undaunting opponent after two previous road games. This Broncos team is not going to make the same mistake this week when they return home to face the Miami Dolphins. As of the writing of this article, it seems that Emmanuel Sanders will play and Julius Thomas is a game-time decision, which should ensure that the Dolphins cannot key on a single offensive player. Enter C.J. Anderson, who has looked solid in his role as the lead back with the Broncos. Anderson's strength thus far has been his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield; he has caught 12 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks. In the Broncos' offense, any player can score multiple touchdowns and Anderson should not lose many looks to other RB's because both Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman will remain inactive; thus, Anderson possesses immense upside and could be overlooked due to recency bias based on how the Broncos looked last Sunday.
Jerick McKinnon (Primarily GPP; FD: $5600, DK: $4500). Despite being the running back who sees the most snaps in the Vikings' offense, Jerick McKinnon still continues to lose redzone carries to Matt Asiata. This week, however, Matt Asiata will be sidelined due to a concussion protocol, which should mean that McKinnon will get all the carries in the Vikings' offense; Ben Tate was signed earlier this week to add depth, but early reports are stating that he will only play in passing situations, where his veteran blocking ability is greatly needed. The Vikings' opponents, the Packers, are ranked 29th in the league in defending the run (yards per game), which is just another reason to give McKinnon consideration in GPP games this weekend.
CASH GAME RUNNING BACKS
Matt Forte (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9300, DK: $9500). The Bears' offense runs through Matt Forte; the veteran running back is averaging 24 touches per game on the season and is heavily involved in both phases of the offense. Forte trails only Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, and Golden Tate in receptions...which is a credit to how heavily-used Forte is in the passing game. Against the Tampa Bay Bucs this week, Forte should be able to do a lot with his 20+ touches. The Bucs' statistics against the run are below-average, but not downright terrible (22nd in the league against the rush); however, they have not faced a running back of Forte's caliber all season and they are still rated out as ProFootballFocus' 31st worst team against the run, which means that their actual statistics could be in store for some negative regression this weekend. Forte is expensive, but is probably worth the cost, if you can slot him into your lineup without crippling it elsewhere.
DeMarco Murray (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9000, DK: $8500). The Cowboys travel to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants on Sunday night. Coming in well-rested off his bye week, Murray should be licking his chops for this matchup against the Giants, who are ranked dead-last in the NFL in defending the run. In three of the past five weeks, the Giants have given up at least 120 rushing yards, including a 95-yard performance from the aging Frank Gore just last week (and 4 touchdowns by Marshawn Lynch the week prior). For his part, Murray is averaging 28 touches per game and should be in a fantastic position to not only achieve value, but surpass it, in this plus matchup on Sunday night.
Rashad Jennings (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6600, DK: $5100). Rashad Jennings made his return from a knee injury last week in a rough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers; he finished the day with 18 carries and 4 receptions for a pedestrian total of 67 all-purpose yards. This week, however, the Giants have a much better matchup against the Cowboys, who yield 4.4 yards per carry and just gave up two rushing touchdowns to the Jags' Denard Robinson in their last game. To reach value, Jennings needs only ~ 13 fantasy points (50 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving, and a TD), which should be an easy task against this defense, particularly if he continues to get 20+ touches.
Trent Richardson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $5700, DK: $4900). Like Coby Fleener (above), Trent Richardson is the beneficiary of an injury to his Colts' stablemate. Last Sunday, the Colts lost Ahmad Bradshaw for the season to a broken leg, which should open up plenty of additional opportunity for Trent Richardson this week. Richardson has been very disappointing since arriving in Indianapolis last year, but he has no competition for carries and he gets to face off against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars. If one considers that this game is projected to be a 14-point blowout, Richardson could see even more carries in the second half, as the Colts look to drain the clock. Given his ground-level salary, Richardson looks like a 'must-have' for cash games this week.
Isaiah Crowell (Cash & GPP format; FD: $5500, DK: $3800). The Cleveland Browns cleared up a bit of the murkiness surrounding their running game last week when they released Ben Tate early in the week. With Tate gone, only Isaiah Crowell and Terrence West remain; last week, Crowell was announced as the last-minute starter and the Browns held true to that announcement by giving Crowell 52 snaps to West 10 snaps. In terms of performance, Crowell averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught a few passes to gain another 30 yards against the Texans, which was enough to reach value in cash game format on his low salarly. This week, Crowell gets to face off against the Atlanta Falcons, who have given up more rushing touchdowns than any other team in the league (13), despite facing a litany of subpar running backs on the season; while Crowell is not a household name (yet?), he has shown flashes of brilliance and his salary is so low that he should have little problem reaching value for your cash game lineups on Sunday.
For last-minute advice, player decisions, and injury news on Sunday morning, tune into the “NFL Gameday” webcast at 11:30 AM (EST) on RotoGrinders Live, where John “tipandpick” Lee, Al “Al_Smizzle” Zeidenfeld, and Dan “DB730” Back will analyze all NFL games every week. You can find the webcast at: https://rotogrinders.com/live. All other daily fantasy questions can be directed to John’s Twitter page at: https://twitter.com/tipandpick
