For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the game script for Thursday Night Football, while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend. The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs. Let’s dive in…
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMESCRIPT
Both the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins enter their AFC East matchup with 5-4 records hoping to reach 6-4 and elevate their chances to make the post-season. Both teams are coming off last-minute losses in Week #10; the Bills blew a 13-3 lead against the Chiefs at home, while the Dolphins gave up a touchdown to the Lions with 29 seconds remaining in the game. These two teams met in Buffalo early in the season and the Bills won the game on the toe of kicker Dan Carpenter, who finished the game with 5 field goals, leading the Bills to a 29-10 victory. In Miami, however, the oddsmakers predict a different outcome for this game: Miami is a 5.5-point favorite in a game that Vegas projects to score a total of 42 points, one of the lowest totals in the Week #11 slate.
Why are the Dolphins favored? Since their Week #5 bye, Miami is 3-2, but their two losses have come at the hands of the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions by a total of 7 points. Meanwhile, their three wins have come against Chicago, Jacksonville, and San Diego, by a combined margin of victory of 64 points. Their improved play can be attributed to Ryan Tannehill, who is showing improvement nearly every week in this read-option offense that has netted him nearly 50 yards rushing in 4 of his last 5 games; likewise, Tannehill has at least one touchdown pass in every game this season (15 total) despite not having a star receiving option. Of his receiving options, rookie WR Jarvis Landry would appear to have the most upside because he is being used in an increasing manner in this offense (19 targets over the past two weeks) and he gets a plus matchup against CB Nickell Robey, who is a subpar slot coverage corner. In the running game, Lamar Miller has been above average, averaging 4.8 yards per carry on the season, but he is nursing a shoulder injury that saw him touch the ball only 5 times last week against the Lions; he is listed as ‘probable’ for this matchup with the Bills, but will likely split carries with both Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas, which should limit any individual RB from garnering sufficient fantasy statistics.
Fantasy options on the Bills are limited. Kyle Orton has done a serviceable job as the starting QB since taking the job from E.J. Manuel in Week #5—he is averaging nearly 280 passing yards and 2 touchdowns per game in his five games as the starter. Unfortunately for Orton, his only two offensive weapons are both injured coming into this matchup; both Fred Jackson and Sammy Watkins have been hobbled with groin injuries over the past few weeks, which limits Orton’s upside. Jackson will likely split carries with Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown, effectively eliminating any of them from DFS contention. Watkins is intriguing, but his hefty salary, his matchup, and his injury concerns make him too risky to roster this week. Overall, it is a complete ‘pass’ on the entire Bills’ offense.
With the running back by committees, decent defenses, and injuries to key players, this game looks to be a real snoozer for fantasy purposes. The only plus play on the night is the Miami Dolphins’ defense against this depleted Bills’ offense, but they will be highly-owned in early game slates, so there is little advantage to rostering them.
Predicted Score: Miami 20, Buffalo 13.
Here are my rated selections for both cash games & GPPs:
4-stars: None
3-stars: Miami Defense (DK @ $3400, FD @ $5300)
2-stars: None
1-star: Ryan Tannehill (DK @ $6000, FD @ $7900)
KICKERS
Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend. If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team. With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):
Stephen Gostkowski, NE ($5300 versus Indianapolis): The Patriots-Colts game is the game with the highest Vegas total in the entire NFL season thus far. Any and all players that you can roster from this game should be in your lineups on Sunday, including kickers.
Adam Vinatieri, IND ($4900 versus New England): See Stephen Gostkowski (above) and switch teams.
Nick Novak, SD ($4500 versus Oakland): The Chargers are projected to score 28 points against the Raiders this weekend and Nick Novak is 100% perfect on the year. In San Diego, there is little concern about rain, wind, and/or snow, which makes Novak a low-risk, high-floor play who can save salary for rostering skill players elsewhere in your lineups.
TEAM DEFENSES
Chargers (versus Oakland): (FD: $5300, DK: $3200). The Chargers are in the midst of a 3-game losing streak, but a closer look shows that they have had their hands full with the Chiefs, Broncos, and Dolphins over that span. This Sunday, they have several factors working to their favor: 1) they have had two weeks to prepare for this game, as they come off their bye week, 2) they play at home for the first time in four weeks, and 3) they play the winless Oakland Raiders, who are 30th in the NFL in points scored, averaging 16.2 points per game. Vegas oddsmakers believe that the Raiders will be the lowest-scoring team on the entire game slate, which further supports rostering the Chargers as a high-end team defense for your daily games.
Lions (versus Arizona): (FD: $5200, DK: $3400). The Lions, fresh off a victory against the red-hot Miami Dolphins, take their #1 ranked defense on the road to Arizona. On paper, this does not appear to be a plus matchup for the Lions, but do not forget that the Cardinals will be starting Drew Stanton at quarterback now that Carson Palmer is out for the season with a torn ACL; in three starts this season, Stanton has completed less than half of his passing attempts and was only able to throw for 2 touchdowns in those starts. Last week, the Cardinals were in an absolute battle with the pathetic St. Louis Rams until late in the fourth quarter when Stanton overthrew an open John Brown; Brown made a magnificent diving catch to put the Cards ahead, which was followed by 2 defensive touchdowns that made the game look like a blowout. Because the Cardinals are at home and come into the game at 8-1, the Lions will be dramatically underowned in daily games this weekend, which makes them a great play for GPP formats.
Panthers (versus Falcons): (FD: $4500, DK: $2900). At the lower end of the salary spectrum this week are the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers were throttled by the Eagles on Monday Night Football in front of the world, which will scare most DFS gamers away from rostering them this week against the Falcons. However, the Panthers are a different team at home than they are on the road; they have been gouged for ~ 35 points per game on the road, but yield a respectable 21 points per game at home this season. Their opponents, the Atlanta Falcons, have dropped 5 of their last 6 games and are 1-4 on the road this year, besting only the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay. At minimum salary, the Panthers are a sneaky play this week in DFS games, which could potentially separate you from the masses and allow you to spend your remaining salary on other positions where scoring is more consistent.
