Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Running Game | Passing Game | Team Defense |
Green Bay | Philadelphia | -6 | 30.25 | 54.5 | ++ | +++ | |
Indianapolis | New England | -3 | 30.25 | 57.5 | ++ | +++ | |
Denver | St. Louis | -9 | 29.75 | 50.5 | +++ | +++ | |
New Orleans | Cincinnati | -7.5 | 29 | 50.5 | +++ | ++ | |
San Diego | Oakland | -10.5 | 27.75 | 45 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
New England | Indianapolis | 3 | 27.25 | 57.5 | + | ++ | |
Pittsburgh | Tennessee | -6 | 26.5 | 47 | ++ | ++ | |
Washington | Tampa Bay | -7.5 | 26.25 | 45 | ++ | ++ | + |
Chicago | Minnesota | -3 | 24.75 | 46.5 | |||
Philadelphia | Green Bay | 6 | 24.25 | 54.5 | + | ||
Carolina | Atlanta | -1.5 | 24 | 46.5 | |||
San Francisco | NY Giants | -4 | 23.75 | 43.5 | |||
Miami | Buffalo | -5.5 | 23.75 | 42 | ++ | ||
Atlanta | Carolina | 1.5 | 22.5 | 46.5 | |||
Cleveland | Houston | -3 | 22.25 | 41.5 | |||
Kansas City | Seattle | -1.5 | 22 | 42.5 | |||
Minnesota | Chicago | 3 | 21.75 | 46.5 | |||
Arizona | Detroit | -2 | 21.75 | 41.5 | |||
Cincinnati | New Orleans | 7.5 | 21.5 | 50.5 | + | ||
St. Louis | Denver | 9 | 20.75 | 50.5 | + | ||
Seattle | Kansas City | 1.5 | 20.5 | 42.5 | |||
Tennessee | Pittsburgh | 6 | 20.5 | 47 | |||
Detroit | Arizona | 2 | 19.75 | 41.5 | |||
NY Giants | San Francisco | 4 | 19.75 | 43.5 | |||
Houston | Cleveland | 3 | 19.25 | 41.5 | |||
Tampa Bay | Washington | 7.5 | 18.75 | 45 | + | ||
Buffalo | Miami | 5.5 | 18.25 | 42 | |||
Oakland | San Diego | 10.5 | 17.25 | 45 | + |
THREE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Green Bay (versus Philadelphia): Fresh off their 6-touchdown first half on Sunday night, the Packers host the high-flying Eagles, who were equally impressive on Monday night. Vegas has opened the Packers as 6-point favorites over the visiting Birds and projects them to score over 30 points. As was the case last week, this could be a nice matchup for Aaron Rodgers and company in a game that could become a shootout, if the Eagles can keep pace.
- Indianapolis (versus New England): Indianapolis and New England both come into Week #11 rested from their bye weeks and will face-off in the marquee game of the week. The oddsmakers have the Colts as slightl favorites over the Patriots, but both teams are projected to score nearly 30 points, which means that all facets of this game will be in play. If you can afford the skill players in this one, load up.
- Denver (versus St. Louis): Peyton Manning demonstrated, once again, last week why the Broncos' passing game is almost always a three-star play; Manning started off slowly, but finished the game with 340 passing yards and 5 touchdowns against the Raiders in Oakland. This week, Denver are 9-point favorites and slated to score 30 points, which puts the Broncos' passing game in a good spot to have a repeat performance in Week #11.
RUNNING GAME
- Denver (versus St. Louis): Last week, the Broncos did not have a single rushing touchdown despite winning convincingly for most of the second half. With Ronnie Hillman injuring himself fairly early in the game, Denver decided to let Peyton Manning do the heavy lifting and he led the Broncos to victory. C.J. Anderson, however, did see 13 carries in the second half and accumulated 90 rushing yards (6.9 YPC) with those limited touches; if the Broncos get ahead early against the Rams, Anderson should see his share of carries against this poor Rams' rushing defense, which could make him a sneaky play on Sunday.
- New Orleans (versus Cincinnati): Mark Ingram has looked remarkable over the past few weeks in the Saints' offense. He has logged three consecutive 100-yard rushing games and touched the ball at least 25 times in each of those games. Against the Bengals, who gave up 3 rushing touchdowns to the Cleveland Browns last week, Ingram could be in store for more of the same, particularly in light of the fact that the Saints are touchdown-plus favorites.
- San Diego (versus Oakland): The Chargers have struggled to move the ball on the ground for the entire season, but this weekend's matchup against the Oakland Raiders could breathe life into the Bolts' rushing game. The Raiders are 27th in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed on the season and they are also 11-point underdogs to this Chargers' team, which means that San Diego will likely be handing the ball off to Ryan Mathews often in the latter part of the game; Mathews should be well-rested, as he has not played since Week #2, when he injured his knee.
TEAM DEFENSE
- San Diego (versus Oakland): The winless Oakland Raiders played tough against the Chargers earlier in the season at home, but Vegas does not see that happening again in San Diego; the Chargers are big favorites and project to hold the Raiders to only 17 points on the day. Coming off a bye week, expect the Chargers to give rookie QB Derek Carr all that he can handle in Week #11.
TWO STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- New Orleans (versus Cincinnati): The Saints lost their first home game of the year last week against the 49ers in overtime. They get a reprieve this week against the Bengals, who were just embarrassed in their own stadium by the Cleveland Browns. The oddsmakers project the Saints to score nearly 30 points, which means that Drew Brees is a probably just a few days away from another 300-yard passing day; combine him with either Jimmy Graham or Brandin Cooks and you have a high-upside GPP tandem.
- San Diego (versus Oakland): If the Chargers are reluctant to get Ryan Mathews too involved, too early, they might lean on Phillip Rivers to throw the ball against the Raiders, who gave up 5 passing touchdowns to the Broncos last Sunday. With a 28-point projected total in Vegas, the Chargers could be in store for some solid fantasy output.
- New England (versus Indianapolis): Prior to their bye week, the Patriots put on a show against the visiting Broncos, stomping them 43-21. Since Rob Gronkowski has been announced as 100% healthy in Week #5, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 201 to 108; during that time, Tom Brady has thrown for 18 touchdowns and is averaging well over 300 passing yards per game. Given the high-scoring potential of this game, Brady and his receiving crew should be in your sights for DFS rosters.
- Pittsburgh (versus Tennessee): The Steelers finally came back to Earth last week, when they lost to the Jets at the Meadowlands. Ben Roethlisberger salvaged a serviceable fantasy day with an 80-yard TD strike during garbage time in the fourth quarter; otherwise, the entire Steelers' passing game was a massive disappointment after 12 passing touchdowns in their previous two games. This week, the Steelers travel to Nashville to face the Titans, who are nearly touchdown underdogs on Monday Night Football. With a projected total of ~ 27 points, Vegas is taking the stance that Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton, and Martavis Bryant are not capable of laying back-to-back clunkers.
- Washington (versus Tampa Bay): Coming off a bye week, the Washington Redskins and Robert Griffin III get a great matchup against the Tampa Bay Bucs, who are 31st in the league in defending the pass. In his first game back from injury, RG3 looked solid, if unspectacular, throwing for 251 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings; this week, the Redskins might let him throw a bit more against the Buccaneers, whose secondary is in the bottom five of nearly every pass coverage category this season. With a 26-point projection from Vegas, the Redskins' passing game could be in store for a nice fantasy day.
RUNNING GAME
- Green Bay (versus Philadelphia): The Packers are slated to be the highest-scoring team of the week with ~ 31 points. If Green Bay jumps out to another early lead, as they did last week, expect a rested Eddie Lacy to see more time against the Eagles this week. Lacy's salary should be somewhat depressed across multiple DFS sites due to lackluster recent performance, which makes him an attractive option based on Vegas' gamescript against the Eagles.
- Indianapolis (versus New England): As has been stated above, all facets of the Indy and New England offenses are in play this weekend in a game with the highest total of the season in the NFL. Ahmad Bradshaw has the upper hand on Trent Richardson as of late, but both running backs are worthy of consideration given the potential of this game.
- Pittsburgh (versus Tennessee): The Steelers will take on the Titans in Tennessee on Sunday and Le'Veon Bell will get to face off against a Titans' team that is ranked 29th in defending opposing running backs this season. The oddsmakers have released Pittsburgh as 6-point favorites who should score nearly 4 touchdowns, which bodes well for Le'Veon Bell, who is long overdue for a big fantasy day.
- Washington (versus Tampa Bay): The Redskins are nearly 8-point favorites over the Bucs when they face off in Washington on Sunday. Coming off a bye week, the Redskins should be rested and in a position to build an early lead; if they are able to do exactly that, Alfred Morris could be in store for his third 2-touchdown game of the season.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Miami (versus Buffalo): The Dolphins return home on Thursday night to face a beleagured Bills' team whose best two offensive players are playing injured; both Sammy Watkins and Fred Jackson are suffering from groin injuries and are questionable entering Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are averaging 17 fantasy points per game from their defense since their Week #5 bye. With Buffalo projected to score ~ 18 points, there seems to be little risk in rostering the Dolphins' defense in Thursday night game slates this week.
ONE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Philadelphia (versus Green Bay): The Eagles do not seem to have lost much since Mark Sanchez replaced Nick Foles last week; they have scored 69 points in the seven quarters that Sanchez has played. Philadelphia is in the unusual position of being a big underdog (6-points) who are also projected to score a high number of points on the week, which makes Sanchez, Jeremy Maclin, and Jordan Matthews solid choices for DFS rosters this weekend.
- Cincinnati (versus New Orleans): Cincinnati is reeling after a disappointing loss to the Browns last Thursday night and they will have their work cut out for them against the Saints in the Superdome this weekend. There is virtually no way that the Saints will not jump out to an early lead at home against the Bengals' defense, which means that Andy Dalton will be forced to look to AJ Green and Mohamed Sanu to play catchup thereafter.
- St. Louis (versus Denver): The QB opposite the Broncos almost always appears as a candidate for DFS rosters because he is often playing from behind in the second half. Last week, Derek Carr threw for nearly 200 yards and 2 touchdowns, which is good enough for ~ 16 fantasy points; if Austin Davis can perform similarly this weekend, he probably reaches value in most formats because his salary is low across the industry.
- Tampa Bay (versus Washington): In his return as the Bucs' starting QB last week against the Falcons, Josh McCown threw for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns; against the Redskins, who are ranked 31st in pass coverage by ProFootballFocus, McCown could have his way with Washington's secondary, particularly if Vegas is correct in suggesting that Tampa Bay will be chasing points.
- Oakland (versus San Diego): As the biggest underdogs on the NFL slate this weekend, the Raiders are almost assured to be playing from behind against the Chargers. Assuming that Vegas is correct, expect Darren McFadden to be minimized and Derek Carr to be looking for James Jones, Andre Holmes, and Mychal Rivera early and often; all of these players will be fairly priced, which makes them decent GPP options for DFS rosters.
RUNNING GAME
- New England (versus Indianapolis): The Patriots are projected to score nearly 4 touchdowns against the Colts in Indianapolis on Sunday night, which means that Bill Belichick will be employing any and all weapons to keep pace with Andrew Luck and company. Jonas Gray and Shane Vereen are both viable options, but the edge goes to Vereen because of his involvement in the passing game.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Washington (versus Tampa Bay): Oddsmakers project the Buccaneers to score only 18 points against the Redskins on Sunday. The Redskins are fairly stout against the run, so if they can stop Josh McCown from moving the sticks through the air, they should be in a good position to prove Vegas right and keep Tampa Bay to less than 20 points.