For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the QBs and WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday. Finally, in the next article, the topic will center on RBs and TEs.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP QUARTERBACKS
Matthew Stafford (Primarily GPP; FD: $8600, DK: $7400). The Arizona Cardinals are ranked 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (274.2); meanwhile, they are 3rd best against the rush, allowing only 78.6 rushing yards per game. If a team is to move the ball against the Cardinals, it must be through the air. To this point in the season, the Cardinals have been fortunate in that they have only played against one elite quarterback; in that game, they were beaten soundly when Peyton Manning threw for nearly 500 yards and 4 touchdowns. Matt Stafford is not Peyton Manning, but he is a step above every other QB that the Cards have faced this season and he has the ability and the weapons to put up a 400-yard, 4-touchdown game at any given time.
Andy Dalton (GPP only; FD: $7900, DK: $5600). Dalton represents a sneaky GPP this week because he will be underowned due to recency bias of the average DFS player. On Thursday Night Football last week, Dalton looked horrendous, going 10 for 33 for a total of 86 yards against the Cleveland Browns; nobody in their right mind would roster him this week, right? You should at least consider it. The gamescript versus the Saints plays in favor of the Cincinnati passing game because New Orleans is an 8-point favorite, yet the Bengals are still projected to score 21+ points. The Saints are very poor in pass defense, rating out at 28th in the league by ProFootballFocus, which bodes well for A.J. Green and Mohamed Sanu. At $5600 on DraftKings, Dalton represents a very intriguing possibility for your GPP lineups.
Cam Newton (Primarily GPP; FD: $7800, DK: $6700). Last week against the Eagles, Cam Newton was sacked 9 times, a reflection of just how poorly the Panthers offensive line pass blocks (32nd in NFL per ProFootballFocus); despite that poor pass blocking, Newton is still averaging ~ 17 fantasy points per game on the season. This week, Newton will face off against the Atlanta Falcons' dreadful defense, who are ranked last in passing yards allowed per game, 28th in 40-yard passing plays allowed, 29th in pass coverage, and 31st in sacks. All of this means that Cam should have plenty of time to find his receivers without worrying about being pummeled and that his receivers should be in good position to get open...if those things happen, there is no reason that Newton cannot throw for 300 yards, multiple touchdowns, and possibly run for 40+ yards and a touchdown of his own.
Josh McCown (GPP only; FD: $7000, DK: $6500). In this space last week, I gave you Josh McCown as a GPP play and he rewarded us with 22 and 25 fantasy points on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. Due to that performance, McCown's salary jumped about 20% on both sites this week, but he should still be on your GPP radar because of his matchup against the Redskins. Washington is ranked next-to-last in the NFL in pass coverage and both Vincent Jackson & Mike Evans have plus matchups against the Redskins' corners, all of which could boost McCown's stat line on Sunday.
CASH GAME QUARTERBACKS
Andrew Luck (Cash and GPP format; FD: $10,200, DK: $10,000). Truthfully, every expensive quarterback on the slate (Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees) looks to be solid cash game quarterback this week because all of their matchups; however, my personal choice is Andrew Luck against the New England Patriots. Luck has thrown for 300+ yards in 7 out of 8 games and is averaging nearly 350 passing yards per game on the season. Vegas projects this game as a 31-28 game in favor of Indy, which means that Luck should continue to put up ridiculous numbers in this one. The trick in cash games this week will be rostering the expensive QB who allows you to still roster solid RB/WR with the remainder of your lineup.
Robert Griffin III (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7400, DK: $6300). RG3 returned to the field last week against the Vikings and, despite a difficult matchup against the Vikings, he finished the day with 13 fantasy points. This week, he gets a prime opponent in the Tampa Bay Bucs' secondary that ProFootballFocus rated 30th in pass coverage and is ranked 31st in passing yards allowed on the season; the Bucs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to score an average of 20 fantasy points per game this year, which would be more than sufficient to pay off Griffin's modest salary. For Griffin's part, he inspires confidence because of the fact that he will also run ~ 6 to 8 times to help generate another 30-40 yards rushing, which should add an extra few points onto RG3's final fantasy point tally.
Mark Sanchez (Cash and GPP format; FD: $6900, DK: $5800). Last week, we recommended Mark Sanchez as a cash game play and he certainly paid off his meager salary with a 21- and 24-point performance on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. Because he played on Monday night, Week #11 salaries were released prior to that performance, which means that Sanchez's salary was not adjusted to reflect his success against the Panthers. To reach value against the Packers this week, Sanchez needs ~ 14 fantasy points, which is 250 yards passing and a TD; in a game that Vegas projects Philly to score ~ 24 points while playing from behind, it is difficult to imagine a scenario whereby Sanchez cannot achieve those paltry numbers.
GPP WIDE RECEIVERS
Jeremy Maclin (Primarily GPP; FD: $8700, DK: $8200). Do not fall into the trap of rostering Jordan Matthews this week after his impressive 2-touchdown performance on Monday Night Football against the Panthers just a few days ago. Against the Packers, Matthews will have to face a much better slot coverage cornerback in Casey Hayward and he is still only playing ~ 60% of the Eagles' offensive snaps. Meanwhile, everybody will have forgotten about Jeremy Maclin, who has a far better matchup against CB Tramon Williams and is averaging over 10 targets per game on the season. At an inflated salary, Maclin will be low-owned, but has the type of upside that can win your GPP this weekend.
A.J. Green (Primarily GPP; FD: $8300, DK: $6000). A.J. Green had a terrible game in front of a primetime audience last Thursday night and recency bias will be in full-effect this week, as A.J. Green will have low ownership across daily sites. You, however, should give Green consideration for your GPP lineups because he is the type of receiver who can put up an 8-catch, 120-yards, and 2 TD effort on any given Sunday. This week, Green has a gamescript that should play to his favor, when the Bengals travel to New Orleans to play the Saints. If the Bengals fall behind early, which Vegas thinks will happen, expect a full dose of A.J. Green against a Saints' secondary that is ranked in the bottom 5 in pass coverage in the NFL.
DeSean Jackson (Primarily GPP; FD: $8100, DK: $7300) and Pierre Garcon (Primarily GPP; FD: $6500, DK: $4000). The Redskins have the good fortune of welcoming the Tampa Bay Bucs' secondary to Washington on Sunday. The Buccaneers have given up some huge fantasy days to opposing wide receivers this season (Julio Jones: 33 points in Week #3, Antonio Brown: 30 points in Week #4, Baltimore WR's: 40 combined points in Week #6); the fact is that the Bucs just do not pressure the opposing QB, which allows opposing receivers extra time to get open against already overmatched TB cornerbacks (ranked 30th in pass coverage by PFF). Both Jackson and Garcon have plus matchups against cornerbacks Johnathan Banks and Alterraun Verner, respectively...one of these receivers is going to have a great fantasy day, the trick will be choosing correctly. Jackson gets a slight bump because he will be lesser owned due to his higher salary between the two options.
Andre Johnson (GPP only; FD: $6300, DK: $4900). The facts: 1) Arian Foster has now been announced as 'inactive' for Sunday's matchup against the Cleveland Browns, which means that the Texans will be starting Alfred Blue in his place, 2) QB Ryan Mallet is making his first career start in the same game, 3) the Texans' opponents, the Browns have won 5 of their previous 6 games, and 4) WR DeAndre Hopkins has more targets than Andre Johnson over the past three weeks. So why recommend Andre Johnson as a GPP play? The other side of the story: 1) Alfred Blue is a decent value play, but the Texans will need to throw the ball to set up the run, 2) Mallet's lack of experience will scare most DFS gamers away from anybody in the Texans' passing game, thereby decreasing ownership for GPP's, 3) the red-hot Browns are overrated at this juncture--their recent wins have been over bad teams...do not forget that they lost to Jacksonville not long ago, and 4) DeAndre Hopkins will draw coverage from Joe Haden, who has looked better as of late; expect Mallet to be conservative and avoid throwing in Haden's direction, which means that Andre Johnson is the play this week. With only a single touchdown in 48 receptions, Johnson is due for some positive regression, himself...if he can do it when he's < 5% owned, that equates to a plus situation for GPP contests.
Julian Edelman (Primarily GPP; FD: $6900, DK: $6300). Despite leading the Patriots in targets on the season, Julian Edelman has only two touchdowns--in the highest projected scoring game on the board this week, that could change dramatically. Edelman is not big redzone target, but he did score six touchdowns last year in his first full season as a starter; his receptions and receiving yardage are on target to match his 2013 numbers, but he is due for some positive regression, in terms of touchdowns, if you believe that he will match last year's totals. The other Pats' WR, Brandon LaFell, will draw coverage from the highest-rated cornerback in the NFL, Vontae Davis, which means that Edelman should get additional targets due to LaFell being eliminated from the passing game. Because of the LaFell's poor matchup and Edelman's lack of touchdowns, the vast majority of people will look to roster Rob Gronkowski to get a piece of the Patriots' passing game, which is certainly a reasonable decision; however, the shark move is to saddle up Edelman, who will be lesser-owned and hope that he can separate you from the larger GPP fields.
CASH GAME WIDE RECEIVERS
Jordy Nelson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8900, DK: $7700). Green Bay is projected to score more points than any other team on Sunday, which means that there should be plenty of fantasy goodness to be distributed amongst the Packers. Jordy Nelson is averaging nearly 10 targets per game and will get a plus matchup against the Eagles, who are tied with the NY Jets for 31st in the NFL in 40+ yard passing plays allowed (11)--thus, Nelson is just the type of big-play receiver that the Eagles cannot cover. Assume at least 1 big (34+ yards) play plus a series of 10-20 yard catches and there is little reason to doubt that Nelson cannot finish the day with 7 catches, 120 yards, and a touchdown.
Antonio Brown (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9000, DK: $7800). Brown disappointed last week when the Steelers decided to lay an egg against the Jets at the Meadowlands...and by "disappointed," I mean that he finished the day with 8 receptions for 74 yards (although he did fumble twice). If you had an opportunity to watch the game, Brown was still heavily involved and was very close to scoring a touchdown, which would have converted his "disappointing" day into a successful one. This week, Brown will line up against the Titans' Blidi Wreh-Wilson who has been a favorite whipping boy of NFL wide receivers this season; Wilson is the 2nd worst rated coverage cornerback on ProFootballFocus through the first 10 weeks in the NFL. Do not be discouraged by last week, just jump back on this train and take it to "Browntown!"
Julio Jones (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8200, DK: $7000). Last week, Julio Jones was 100% healthy for the first time in over a month; he responded with an 8-reception, 119-yard performance, but he did not score a touchdown (he was close several times), which keeps his salary depressed for one more week. This week, Jones will line up against Panthers' CB Melvin White, who is allowing a 129.5 QB rating when passes are thrown in his direction (3rd worst in the NFL). Julio is averaging over 10 targets per week, but only has 3 touchdowns on the season, which likely means that he will have a 2-touchdown day in the near future...this could be the week.
Kelvin Benjamin (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6600, DK: $4900). Kelvin Benjamin makes a repeat appearance in the cash game section of "Tips & Picks" after he scored 2 garbage-time touchdowns against the Eagles on Monday night. Because salaries for major sites are released prior to the Monday night game, Benjamin's salary for this week is largely unaffected by his 20-fantasy point performance last week, which means that he should be on your radar for your cash game rosters. Benjamin is the only viable wide receiver in the Panther offense and he gets a great matchup against the Falcons' CB Robert Alford, who has given up more passing touchdowns than any other coverage corner in the NFL this season. Benjamin needs only 13 fantasy points to reach value, which is something that could happen prior to halftime in this matchup.
Davante Adams (Primarily cash format; FD: $5200, DK: $3900). Aaron Rodgers threw 6 touchdowns in the first half of the game against the Bears last Sunday night and the offense basically shut down in the second half; unfortunately for Davante Adams, he was not the recipient of any of those first half throws and the gamescript basically negated any value that he might have had for the remainder of that game. Despite that disappointing performance, Adams is still worthy of consideration for cash game plays simply because he needs only 10 fantasy points to reach value for his salary. That's 4 receptions for 60 yards in a game where the Packers are projected to score 30+ points. It is difficult to envision a repeat performance of last week for Adams--look for Aaron Rodgers to get him involved early this week to atone for ignoring him last week.
