DFS Week #3: Vegas Value Chart

Photo: Joe Camporeale, USA Today Sports

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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

THREE STAR PLAYS

PASSING GAME

• None

RUNNING GAME

• New England (versus Oakland):  As 14.5-point favorites, the Pats look to be running out the clock in the 2H; consider Ridley over Vereen due to their roles (rushing versus receiving)
• New Orleans (versus Minnesota):  If New Orleans is winning by 10 at the half, look for a steady dose of Khiry Robinson, now that Mark Ingram is out with an injury; Robinson should offer solid value.

TEAM DEFENSE

• New England (versus Oakland):  New England had a stellar game against Minnesota last week and Vegas has Oakland slated to score 16 points. Advantage Pats.
• Cincinnati (versus Tennessee):  Cinci is hosting the Titans, who had a lot of trouble mounting an offense against the Cowboys last week.  Vegas has the Titans scoring 18.5 points, so Cinci is a solid selection for your cash games as a big home favorite.

TWO STAR PLAYS

PASSING GAME

• Philadelphia (versus Washington):  The Redskins have not seen a good offense yet this year; that changes this week against Chip Kelly's Eagles.  Look for Foles to find his weapons often if the Eagles are to score 30 points, as Vegas would have us believe.
• Indianapolis (versus Jacksonville):  Jacksonville looks to be the early favorite for worst team in the NFL in 2014; meanwhile, Indy looks to bounce back from their disappointing loss on MNF against the Eagles.  As 6.5-point favorites, Indy should try to get their passing game back on track this week, as it is definitely their strength.
• Atlanta (versus Tampa Bay):  Tampa Bay has been disappointing thus far, dropping back-to-back games at home to two teams with poor offenses (Carolina and St. Louis).  Against Atlanta, they will have their hands full; meanwhile, the Falcons will be looking to regain their Week #1 magic and reestablish the strength of their team by throwing the ball all around the Georgia Dome.
• Green Bay (versus Detroit):  This game could be a shootout, as neither team has shown an ability to stop an opposing offense.  Both teams have a stockpile of offensive weapons, so look for Green Bay to toss the ball around to their bevy of receivers.

RUNNING GAME

• Philadelphia (versus Washington):  If Philly does manage to jump out to an early lead, they may try to protect it with Lesean McCoy.  At nearly 30 points predicted for this offense, there should be plenty of fantasy goodness to go around.
• Indianapolis (versus Jacksonville):  Assuming Indy eventually establishes a lead, they may continue to lean on the Richardson-Bradshaw connection to run clock in the 2H; the tricky part will be deciding which back gets the most action.

TEAM DEFENSE

• Miami (versus Kansas City):  The Dolphins host the Chiefs, who have struggled to start the 2014 campaign.  Vegas has the Chiefs scoring 18.5 points, so Miami has decent upside.
• Carolina (versus Pittsburgh):  The Steelers have not scored a touchdown in 6 quarters and they travel to Carolina to match up against the Panthers' stingy defense...could spell trouble for Big Ben and company.

ONE STAR PLAYS

PASSING GAME

• New England (versus Oakland):  New England is projected to score 30+ points, but if they jump to an early lead, they could run the ball, which limits excitement (to some degree) for their passing game.  The still get one star due to their projected total.
• New Orleans (versus Minnesota):  Ditto New England (above).
• Detroit (versus Green Bay):  If this game results in a shootout, look for Stafford and his arsenal of weapons to show what they can do; this could be fantasy magic for both offenses.
• Denver (versus Seattle):  Never underestimate Peyton.  Never underestimate the Seahawks defense at home.  Something has to give--Peyton will be OK, but likely not worth his DFS salary.
• Washington (versus Philadelphia):  If Washington is to keep pace with Philly, they likely will be forced to test Kirk Cousins' arm early and often; Vegas has Washington scoring only 3 touchdowns, so excitement about their upside is limited to one star.
• Jacksonville (versus Indianapolis):  If the Jags showed anything in the first two weeks, the passing game would have more excitement going into Week #3; unfortunately, Vegas has them scoring less than three touchdowns and Henne has not shown much ability to put up points thus far.
• Tampa Bay (versus Atlanta):  Here is another team that will be playing from behind, which should favor the passing game, but Josh McCown has not been able to get the ball into his big receivers' hands just yet.  If there is ever a game to do it, it could be against the Falcons' secondary.
• Oakland (versus New England):  Oakland will be forced to throw the ball often against the Pats in New England.  If Derek Carr can continue to connect with James Jones, they represent solid sleepers heading into Week #3.

RUNNING GAME

• Seattle (versus Denver):  Seattle is projected to score almost four touchdowns against the Broncos at home.  Saddle up Marshawn Lynch for at least one of those.
• Atlanta (versus Tampa Bay):  If Atlanta is able to stifle Tampa Bay's offense, they should be in the driver's seat by the third quarter; look for a steady dose of their stable of running backs, starting with Steven Jackson.
• Green Bay (versus Detroit):  Eddie Lacy has seen limited action in 2014 due to a concussion against the Seahawks and then playing from behind last week against the Jets.  Look for the Packers to try to establish the run first against the Lions, so as to keep Stafford off the field.
• Cincinnati (versus Tennessee):  If Cinci can jump out to an early lead, as Vegas is projecting, they could lean on the Gio Bernard-Jeremy Hill train to run clock in the 2H.  If they score 26 points, one of those guys is bound to have a piece.
• Dallas (versus St. Louis):  DeMarco Murray has looked fabulous in his first two games of 2014.  This week, the Cowboys will look to take advantage of the Rams' run defense, which has been disappointing thus far.

TEAM DEFENSE 

• New Orleans (versus Minnesota):  Minny is projected to score less than three touchdowns and New Orleans plays a much better game at home...particularly when it will be their opener.
• Indianapolis (versus Jacksonville):  The Jags gave up 10 sacks to the Redskins last week; if Indy can do anything similar, they will reach value.
• Atlanta (versus Tampa Bay):  Tampa has really struggled on offense thus far; Atlanta has really struggled on defense thus far.  This week, one of them should improve.
• Houston (versus NY Giants):  The Texans' defense has looked solid in 2014 and Eli is always subject to throw an interception (or four), so Houston is an attractive option, particularly when Vegas has the Giants scoring less than three touchdowns.

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