You have read it in this space previously, but it bears repeating that playing DFS on short game slates has less of an 'edge' than when one plays DFS on a 12+ game weekend. The reality is that, with a limited pool of value-based selections, there will be a lot of player overlap between your roster and your opponent's roster; as such, the difference between winning and losing can rest on the performance of only one or two players. With the extreme variance associated with event-based scoring, as occurs with football where a touchdown is worth as much as 60-yards rushing/receiving, one can build a great roster, but lose because their player(s) did not get into the endzone. On a full game slate, however, "missing" on one player will not necessarily sabotage your odds of winning because the likelihood that you and your opponent have extensive player overlap elsewhere on your roster is minimal. For these reasons, you must be extremely prudent (and a bit lucky) to maximize your odds of winning on weekends with limited games from which to choose players, such as wild-card weekend.
This playoff edition of "Tips and Picks" will examine the DFS implications of each of the four upcoming wild-card games. Rather than parsing through each game individually as we have done for Thursday night and Thanksgiving games this season, I will break down both phases (rushing and passing) of each respective offense, as they relate to their opponents' defensive prowess. In the process, we shall identify both cash game plays and tournament (GPP)-only players and even assemble a lineup or two based off this analysis. Let's dive in...
passing matchups
Baltimore (versus Pittsburgh defense--27th against QB in FPPG): The Pittsburgh Steelers have won 8 of their last 10 games and have quietly hidden the fact that they have an atrocious secondary; in fact, over that ten game span, the Steelers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for either 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in NINE games! While Joe Flacco is likely not a cash game player for your DFS rosters due to his inconsistency and the Ravens' propensity to grind it out at times, he most certainly is in play for GPP formats because the matchup is sound and Flacco has displayed 300 yard/multiple TD game potential on five different occasions this year.
Carolina (versus Arizona defense--23rd against QB in FPPG): Cam Newton is my favorite cash game play this weekend. Over the past month, Newton has been averaging 61.5 rushing yards per game and he matches up against a defense that has faced two similar quarterbacks (Colin Kaeparnick and Russell Wilson) on multiple occasions this season; in those matchups, the Cardinals allowed 54, 73, 88, and 63 yards rushing, respectively (an average of 69.5 rushing yards per game). Furthermore, the Cardinals are terrible in defending the tight end position, which happens to be one of the biggest strengths of the Carolina offense; add in the fact that Arizona is very stout against the run and it would appear that 80% of the offensive load should fall squarely on Cam's shoulders this weekend. His GPP upside is likely limited by the Vegas total, but he is definitely a top-tier option for cash games.
Detroit (versus Dallas defense--20th against QB in FPPG): Without Calvin Johnson for a good portion of the season, Matthew Stafford was a bit of a fantasy letdown in 2014, but he managed to guide his team into a wild-card matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend. Stafford will face a Dallas secondary that has been susceptible at times this season; they have allowed the 7th most passing yards in the league and of all the playoff teams, only the Steelers have yielded more passing yardage. Calvin Johnson will matchup against Brandon Carr, who is allowing an opposing QB rating of 116.6 when thrown in his direction, while Golden Tate will get Orlando Scandrick (a tougher assignment). Stafford is probably not a cash game play, but because of the plus matchup, his talented receivers, and his overall upside, he is a great GPP candidate this weekend.
Arizona (versus Carolina defense--18th against QB in FPPG): Two words: Ryan Lindley. Not a chance...next option, please.
Pittsburgh (versus Baltimore defense--14th against QB in FPPG): The Ravens' secondary was decimated with injuries in the latter portion of the year, but they were fortunate with regards to their scheduling as the playoffs loomed; over the past month (in which they yielded only a single passing touchdown), the Ravens faced Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Connor Shaw, none of whom possess the ability nor the offensive weaponry boasted by Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. On Saturday, it would not be surprising to see Ben Roethlisberger throw the ball 40 times against this Ravens' secondary because the Steelers have zero experience in their backfield; as a result, Roethlisberger is a borderline cash game play, who also has GPP upside in a game that could become a shootout.
Cincinnati (versus Indianapolis defense--13th against QB in FPPG): Andy Dalton will travel to Lucas Oil Stadium this weekend and will be forced to face off against the league's best cornerback, Vontae Davis. Meanwhile, Dalton's best receiver, A.J. Green is still under a concussion protocol and was announced as 'doubtful' on Friday afternoon, neither of which sounds promising for Dalton's fantasy prospects. I look for the Bengals to try to slow down the pace of this one by pounding the ball with Jeremy Hill; they do not match up well against the Colts' passing defense and cannot compete with them if they try to keep pace with them through the air. This is not a week to take chances with Dalton.
Dallas (versus Detroit defense--5th against QB in FPPG): If the Detroit Lions have a weakness on defense, it's likely against the pass. Despite being highly-ranked in most defensive categories, the Lions have actually yielded multiple passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in 8 of their previous 10 games. Meanwhile, after employing a run-heavy approach in the first half of the season, it seems that Jason Garrett has realized that Tony Romo can play football, too; since the Cowboys' bye week (Week #11), Romo has 16 touchdown passes in only six games (versus 3 interceptions). All this said, I am lukewarm on Tony Romo's DFS prospects this weekend because we know that DeMarco Murray will get 20+ touches, the Cowboys are projected to be playing with a lead, and Romo's salary is quite hefty.
Indianapolis (versus Cincinnati defense--4th against QB in FPPG): When the Colts face off against the Bengals on Sunday, Andrew Luck will look to rebound from three consecutive sub-200 yard passing games that ended his season. The Bengals are terrible against the run, but are actually quite solid in defending the pass; in fact, the Bengals are one of two NFL teams with more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed (the Bills are the other team). Luck's salary is prohibitively high for DFS games, particularly on a limited game slate where more value-based options are available (i.e., Cam Newton and Ben Roethlisberger). For these reasons, Andrew Luck is a low-end GPP-only play this weekend.
rushing matchups
Indianapolis (versus Cincinnati defense--27th against RB in FPPG): The Bengals rank in the near the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this season; they are FootballOutsiders' 29th ranked rushing defense, as measured by their DVOA metric, which also takes into account strength of schedule (amongst other factors). In short, the Bengals' rush defense is just not very good. Enter Dan Herron, who is slowly becoming the lead back in Indy; last week, Zurlon Tipton stole carries in a meaningless game, but you likely will not see Tipton on the field this weekend, which means it will be Herron first and Trent Richardson second. On a limited slate, Herron becomes a cash game play for both of the major sites; Richardson is GPP-only.
Cincinnati (versus Indianapolis defense--21st against RB in FPPG): By most metrics, the Colts' rushing defense appears to be respectable, finishing the regular season in the mid-range of most statistical categories. However, a closer look indicates that they may not be as good as the raw numbers indicate; FootballOutsiders rates the Colts as the league's second-worst defense in defending the running back position, a likely reflection of their poor redzone defense (dead-last in the NFL). Jeremy Hill should have no trouble running the ball against this defense and is one of the better cash/GPP plays this weekend; Gio Bernard is GPP-only because his usage has been dramatically diminished over the past few weeks due to Hill's dominance.
Detroit (versus Dallas defense--18th against RB in FPPG): Joique Bell is a sneaky play this weekend against a Cowboys' team that has enamored the football world over the past month. Despite their success, the Cowboys still allow 4.2 rushing yards per attempt and have yielded more rushing touchdowns than any team not named the Atlanta Falcons. At his modest salary, Joique Bell is attractive because he has 2-touchdown upside and will get 14-18 touches on Sunday. If you are asking, I have zero interest in Reggie Bush because his value is predicated on receiving the ball in a Cowboys' blowout, which I do not foresee happening.
Arizona (versus Carolina defense--17th against RB in FPPG): A lot of people will be enticed by Kerwynn Williams against a Panthers' rush defense that has allowed 4.5 rushing yards per attempt this season, but be warned that the Panthers have been stout against the rush for the latter portion of 2014; in fact, Carolina has not yielded a rushing touchdown since Week #10, a week prior to their bye week! With a terrible Ryan Lindley leading the offense, I expect the Panthers to load the box and dare Lindley to throw the ball, something he has been unable to do effectively to this point in his career. As such, Kerwynn Williams is a GPP-only play (for me).
Baltimore (versus Pittsburgh defense--13th against RB in FPPG): The Steelers are only allowing 100.3 rushing yards per game this season (4.4 yards per carry), but that statistic is more of a reflection of their poor passing defense than their 'strong' running defense; the truth is that opposing teams have moved the ball well against the Steelers this season (6.0 yards per play trails only Atlanta) and they have done so against both phases of the defense. Justin Forsett is getting the majority of the Ravens' carries these days and is moderately priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he is probably primarily a GPP play for me--why? There are two concerns about rostering him in cash games: 1) If the Ravens' fall behind early, they could be forced to throw the ball thereby minimizing his involvement, and 2) Forsett still loses goalline touches to other Ravens' backs.
Dallas (versus Detroit defense--4th against RB in FPPG): The unstoppable force (DeMarco Murray) versus the immovable object (Lions' rush defense)--who wins? This is an extremely tough spot for the league's leading rusher, but of all of the running backs on this short slate, he is almost guaranteed the most touches because the Cowboys' offense runs through him...literally. Murray will see 20+ touches, which despite the poor matchup, makes him a decent cash game play at the running back position; for GPP's, however, I might fade (avoid) Murray because he will be highly-owned and there is a distinct chance that the Lions will be able to contain him, particularly if one considers he needs between 27 and 34 fantasy points to reach tournament value on the major DFS sites.
Carolina (versus Arizona defense--2nd against RB in FPPG): In previous editions of "Tips and Picks," I have recommended Jonathan Stewart as a DFS play because he has looked stellar this season, despite running behind a pedestrian offensive line; in fact, he is ProFootballFocus' top ten rated running backs this season, including the #2 rated "elusive" RB that ranks running backs based on their ability to avoid and/or break tackles (he trails only Marshawn Lynch). This week, however, Stewart has multiple angles working against him: 1) DeAngelo Williams will return to steal carries, 2) After several decent games without Williams, Stewart's salary is now quite high for his production potential, 3) Vegas has this game as the lowest-scoring of the weekend, 4) Cam Newton vultures a lot of rushing touchdown opportunities near the goalline, and 5) The Arizona defense is stingy against the run. For these reasons, I cannot recommend a running back in Carolina this weekend.
Pittsburgh (versus Baltimore defense--1st against RB in FPPG): The major news outlets are currently listing Le'Veon Bell as questionable for this Saturday's contest against the Ravens, but I would be absoluately floored if Bell suits up against the league's best rushing offense on Saturday night after having his knee hyperextended last Sunday night against the Bengals. If Bell is announced as inactive, I expect Josh Harris to get the majority of carries out of the Steelers' backfield (~ 60%) with Dri Archer getting 20-30% and newly-signed Ben Tate getting the remainder (10-20%); if carries are distributed in this fashion, the only 'rosterable' RB in Pittsburgh becomes Harris, due to his potential workload. However, will the Steelers really ask an undrafted free agent rookie to touch the ball 20 times against one of the league's best rushing defenses in a must-win game? I don't think so. Harris is extremely tempting for DFS games because his salary is low, but the only way he will reach value is if he breaks a long run or scores a touchdown, neither of which are likely given his matchup and somewhat limited usage.
REceiving matchups
Pittsburgh (versus Baltimore defense--28th against WR, 12th against TE in FPPG): All receivers’ hands will be on deck when the Steelers host the Ravens on Saturday night. Without their team-appointed MVP, Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers will lean on Ben Roethlisberger to shoulder the offensive load; this reality should put every Steelers’ receiver on your DFS radar this weekend. Antonio Brown is a cash game staple because his floor would appear to be 8/100/1 against this banged up secondary. Both Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton merit attention, as well; Bryant is a big play receiver, who gets plenty of redzone looks, while Wheaton has been relegated to a possession receiver since Bryant came on the scene earlier this season. At their respective salaries, Bryant is more of a GPP play, while Wheaton has some salary-relief, cash game appeal. Lastly, Heath Miller is a GPP-only option primarily because his usage in the Steelers’ offense is so inconsistent; this week, it would not be surprising to see him limited to pass-blocking duties because the Ravens boast one of the better pass rushes in the league and the Steelers have no running back who is an experienced blocker at this juncture.
Baltimore (versus Pittsburgh defense--24th against WR, 20th against TE in FPPG): Historically, the Steelers-Ravens rivalry has consisted of close, old school, grind-it-out type football games that end with a 17-14 score. This weekend, we could still see a close score, but it likely will not be a defensive struggle because both defenses have faltered this season. Joe Flacco will look to throw against this susceptible secondary and should have plenty of options; Steve Smith and Torrey Smith will lineup against William Gay and Antwon Blake, both of whom have given up big games to opposing receivers this season. Of the Smiths, Torrey is probably a better GPP play because of his big play ability, while Steve is a borderline cash game choice due to his lower salary and likely usage. An interesting GPP play could be slot receiver, Marlon Brown; the Steelers are FootballOutsiders’ 31st ranked defender of the slot position and Brown in minimum-priced across the industry this weekend—he is the type of boom-or-bust player that can win a GPP on a short slate because he will be low-owned and will separate your roster from the masses.
Arizona (versus Carolina defense--20th against WR, 14th against TE in FPPG): Since releasing CB Antoine Cason earlier in the season, the Panthers’ pass defense has improved dramatically; in fact, until Roddy White got 100 receiving yards during garbage time of a blowout loss to the Panthers last week, no receiver had amassed 100 receiving yards against the Panthers since Week #10. With Ryan Lindley leading the Cards’ offense, it is difficult to recommend any Arizona receiver this weekend; however, Larry Fitzgerald is a possible GPP play because his salary is modest and the Panthers rank in the bottom five in the NFL in defending an opposing team’s WR1 (per FootballOutsiders).
Carolina (versus Arizona defense--18th against WR, 27th against TE in FPPG): The Panthers are not a prototypical passing juggernaut, but they are in a good spot this weekend for DFS. First, their receivers are all reasonably priced because the Panthers have been a lower-end offense for most of the season. Next, rookie sensation Kelvin Benjamin should only see limited exposure to the Cards’ best cornerback, Patrick Peterson; that said, Peterson has not been his typical shutdown self this season, so Benjamin may not have problems getting open even when covered by Peterson. Of all the Carolina receivers, I most prefer Greg Olsen for three reasons: 1) the tight end position is extremely thin this weekend, 2) he is highly-targeted in the Carolina offense, and 3) the Cardinals are extremely poor at covering the tight end position (and have been for several years).
Dallas (versus Detroit defense--11th against WR, 17th against TE in FPPG): Dez Bryant is one of the hottest receivers in the NFL over the past month, but will get a tough assignment against a Detroit secondary that ranks 2nd in the league in defending an opponent’s WR1. Due to his matchup, his inflated salary, the likely gamescript (Dallas winning), and the Cowboys’ run-first mentality, Dez becomes a GPP-only option on Sunday. Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley fall into the same category (GPP-only) because of their limited targets and offensive snaps, respectively; Beasley has admittedly been productive on limited snaps, but his success rate with those snaps would appear to be unsustainable over a larger sample size. Jason Witten is the last of the GPP plays amongst the Dallas receivers because his salary is a bit higher than it probably should be based on his inconsistent usage in the Dallas passing game.
Detroit (versus Dallas defense--7th against WR, 29th against TE in FPPG): Behind Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson is my second favorite cash game play this weekend. Johnson will get a plus matchup against Cowboys’ CB Brandon Carr, who gets burned nearly every week; this week will be no different and Johnson’s floor is probably 7/90/1 (with immense upside). Golden Tate, on the other hand, could be fool’s gold against Orlando Scandrick; the Cowboys have been very solid in defending the slot position this season and Scandrick enters the game healthy for the first time in awhile. As a GPP flyer, you could make an argument for Jeremy Ross because Dallas is 29th in the league in defending the opposing WR2; if they double-team Calvin Johnson (or provide over-the-top Safety help) and Scandrick blankets Tate, that would leave only Ross as a wide receiver option for Stafford.
Indianapolis (versus Cincinnati defense--5th against WR, 19th against TE in FPPG): I will be avoiding T.Y. Hilton this weekend in DFS games primarily because there are equally-talented receivers with better matchups at comparable salaries. According to FootballOutsiders’ DVOA metric, the Bengals defend the WR1 position better than any other team in the league, which limits excitement about paying $8K+ for Hilton; furthermore, I fully expect the Colts to take a run-heavy approach in this game because of how poorly the Bengals defend the rush. Due to this stance, I am not high on any of the Colts’ receivers except TE Dwayne Allen, a big redzone target who returns from injury at a discounted salary.
Cincinnati (versus Indianapolis defense--2nd against WR, 31st against TE in FPPG): As stated elsewhere in this article, I fully expect to see a run-first approach from the Bengals on Sunday. First, it appears that A.J. Green will miss the game due to a concussion; his replacement(s), Brandon Tate and/or Greg Little have zero chance in getting open against the league’s best cornerback, Vontae Davis. Mohamed Sanu is an interesting GPP option out of the slot because the Colts’ Darius Butler has not been very successful in defending the slot this season…however, Sanu may be brought out of the slot due to Green’s absence, which means that Sanu would likely see a lot of Vontae Davis. If you roster Sanu, just be aware that this scenario is entirely possible. Of all the receivers on the Bengals, the player I like most is TE Jermaine Gresham because the Colts have not defended the tight end position well at all this season; that said, Gresham is battling through some major back issues, which, if tweaked during a game, could result in an early departure.
potential cash game lineups
