To dominate your draft it is crucial to have an understating of Average Draft Position (ADP). Doing so allows you to swoop up other players with earlier picks, while still grabbing the players you are targeting later on. Looking at current ADP, here are a few players that we feel can be had for great value:
QUARTERBACK
Jay Cutler (Chicago) – Many Fantasy owners have been burned by Cutler in the past due to his gun slinging ways and his propensity for getting injured. But as Dr. Jene Bramel has mentioned many times, the “injury-risk” label shouldn’t be thrown around so easily. Cutler’s groin injury last year was fluky, and in Coach Marc Trestman’s offensive scheme, he is asked to get the ball out quickly. Cutler has also never been much of a runner, so injury concerns should be minimal especially compared to many of the top quarterbacks in the league these days. The gun slinging has also been put in check, with Cutler now being asked to throw to specific designed reads as opposed to being left to his old free wheeling ways.
Cutler has one of the biggest arms in the league and his supporting cast is also arguably the most talented in the league, with beastly receivers Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. They then have Matt Forte catching a ton of balls out the backfield and intriguing second year receiver, Marquess Wilson, who should make great strides this season as well.
Cutler’s ADP is currently 9.04, making him the 13th quarterback off the board. If you combine Cutler and Josh McCown’s stats from 2013, that would equate to 4,281 yards, 32 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, good enough to make Cutler a Top 5 quarterback in Fantasy last season. With another year in Trestman’s system, there is no reason Cutler shouldn’t finish in the Top 10 if not the Top 5.
RUNNING BACK
Lamar Miller (Miami) – Miller is another player that burned some Fantasy owners last season and that’s why the team felt the need to sign Knowshon Moreno in the offseason. However, Moreno reported to off-season workouts out of shape, had to have arthroscopic knee surgery and has yet to practice at camp. Miller meanwhile has looked fantastic in camp so far and is drawing praise from the coaching staff.
Some of Miller’s shortcomings last year were due to a poor fit in in their offensive scheme and brutal offensive line play. This season Chip Kelly protégé, Bill Lazor, takes over as offensive coordinator and he should do a much better job at getting Miller into space as Miller takes on the LeSean McCoy role. There are reports Miller has even been in touch with Shady to discuss some of the nuances of the offense.
But the offense this year should be up-tempo with a ton of runs, as the Eagles ran the fourth most run plays last season. And despite the injury to Center Mike Pouncey, who may miss the first month of the season, the Dolphins also did a good job of upgrading their offensive line, bringing in Brandon Albert from the Chiefsand spending their first round draft pick on Ja’Wuan James.
Miller’s current ADP of 7.09 is a steal for a back that has high-end RB2 appeal. Often times it takes until year three for a player to truly break out, and this is looking like the year for Miller.
WIDE RECEIVER
Mike Wallace (Miami) – Mike Wallace is another player that should benefit greatly from Bill Lazor’s new offensive scheme in Miami. Instead of just being a deep threat, they are going to use Wallace as the Eagles used DeSean Jackson last season, when Jackson had a career year. So far in camp, Wallace is moving all around the formation and lining up in different spots, with the goal getting him the ball closer to the line of scrimmage and letting him create. Wallace is bigger than Jackson and is even a hair faster, so there is real potential he explodes in this offense. His current ADP has him going at the end of the sixth round, which is WR3 range for a wide receiver with WR1 upside, especially in PPR leagues.
Marques Colston (New Orleans) – Colston flies under the radar a bit every season, and this year is no exception. Even though the Saints have two potentially electric youngsters in Kenny Stills and rookie Brandin Cooks, Colston is still the teams #1 wide receiver. Drew Brees is also very comfortable throwing to him, and with the loss of Darren Sproles and Lance More, that comfort level could pay early dividends.
Last season he did struggle through a foot injury most of the year, but things picked up big time for him towards the end of the season last year. And for what its worth, he claims that he is fully healthy and never felt better at the start of camp. While not a sexy pick, especially in PPR leagues, Colston is a solid value pick for a receiver going in the seventh round.
Kenbrell Thompkins (New England) – Wide receivers like A.J. Green and Keenan Allen make it tough for other rookies. Everyone expects players these days to come into the league and dominate from day one. But that is the exception and not the rule. In most cases it takes at least two or three seasons for young players to hone their skills, learn to run proper routes, learn to read defenses and generally learn to play at a different speed than they did in college.
So after making noise as a rookie in camp last year, many Fantasy owners spent a high draft pick on Thompkins and were disappointed with the results. While he definitely did struggle at times last year, he also made a number of great plays, such as his 20-yard touchdown grab from Tom Brady in October to beat the Saints with ten second left in the game.
Once again this pre-season, Thompkins has shined during OTAs and is now turning heads in camp. The usually tight-lipped Bill Belichick stated that he was a “hard working kid” and one of the teams “hardest workers.” Tom Brady then noted that Thompkins "works his tail off" and possesses a contagious competitiveness that "just elevates the rest of the team." On the first day of camp he also beat All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis for a touchdown.
While there is a lot of competition at camp, Julian Edelman is a diminutive slot receiver, Danny Amendola has been disappointing in New England so far and has never been able to stay healthy, Brandon LaFell, according to ESPN Boston, has been inconsistent in practices and second year receiver Aaron Dobson is still trying to work his way back from foot surgery. While he is no lock, there is clearly a path to relevance for Thompkins who’s ADP is essentially undrafted. And if he actually gets to start, there is major upside in this offense.
TIGHT END
Kyle Rudolph (Minn) – While it seems as if he has been in the league forever, Rudolph is just 24 years old and has been held back by poor offensive scheme that used him mostly as a red zone threat and horrible quarterback play. Fortunately this season, Norv Turner takes over as the teams Offensive Coordinator and brings to the Vikings his tight end friendly scheme that helped Jordan Cameron and Antonio Gates thrive. He will also finally have a capable quarterback throwing him the ball in either Matt Cassel or Teddy Bridgewater.
While Rudolph doesn’t have elite speed, he runs well, has a monster frame, possesses a quick first step, excellent hands and the body control to win jump balls. His current ADP is around 8.11, being drafted as the 10th tight end off the board. For those that miss out or pass up on the elite three or four guys, he is an excellent cheap upside pick that can be paired with a tight end going later such as Gates, Zach Ertz or Martellus Bennett. Minnesota also just extended him to the tune of five-years and $36.5 million, so they clearly believe in his talents.
Dennis Pitta (Baltimore) - Pitta is fully healthy after missing most of last season with a brutal hip injury. He also benefits from the addition of a coaching change, now playing in Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak’s tight end friendly system, which should see Pitta routinely split out as a wide receiver. Pitta has also has a great bromance with quarterback Joe Flacco, who looks his way early and often when the pressure comes. While touchdowns are tough to predict, Pitta should be a no brainer PPR stud that should lead the team in receptions. With an ADP in the eighth round, Pitta is another solid value pick for those who wait at tight end.