Photo: Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports

How to construct a roster for the Footballguys Playoff Challenge

The Footballguys Playoff Challenge is about to get under way and if you haven’t played in a playoff fantasy league you are going to absolutely love it as it is one of my favorite formats around. As I can’t officially play in this year’s challenge I am going to walk through how I would fill out my entry this year.

The first thing you want to do in every contest is pay close attention to the details of the rules. Here we see that:

• Each team will consist of ten (10) NFL players in a FFPC starting roster format: 1-QB, 2-RB, 2-WR, 1-TE, 2-Flex, 1-K, 1-D

• Each team will choose ten (10) players from any of the 12 NFL playoff teams but ONLY ONE PLAYER PER TEAM. To be clear, if you choose Tom Brady as your QB, you may NOT have any more Patriots players on your roster, including Kicker & Defense.

Additionally, there are three rules that really stick out to me. The first, is you get a point per reception which will bump up the wide receivers and the pass catching running backs. Even better the tight ends get 1.5 points per reception which boosts them up a little more. Finally, and most importantly is you get double points for the super bowl! Please be sure to read the rest of the rules in detail.

The fact that you get double the points for the Super Bowl means you want to make sure your highest scoring players are on a team playing in the Super Bowl. If that team has to play on opening weekend all the better. Quarterbacks are the highest scoring players so you will want to focus on QB for the teams that you think will win the most.

Before we get into the specific picks my high level strategy is very similar to a DFS GPP. If you followed my articles this year you will know that I advocate playing value and often times that means taking a slightly contrarian approach with a few picks. This same approach works for the Footballguys Playoff Challenge as it is set up just like a DFS GPP. If you want to hit those life changing amounts you need to take the value plays but then take a couple of risks that others might miss out on.

I would specifically recommend taking at least one or two players that you don’t think will be too popular but could be in line for a big couple of games. Teams that you think will only play one game is perfect for these types of picks because they will only need to blow up one game instead of several.

The first spot I like to fill out is my quarterback and as mentioned above we really want our quarterback playing in the Super Bowl and if they start week one all the better. The two teams that I think have the best chance at making a run to the Super Bowl from opening round are the Cowboys and Steelers. Unfortunately, for both of them their star running backs are slightly banged up right now or I would like their chances to go far even more. However, that may make the teams have to rely on their passing game even more.

If you went with either Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger, both who have performed great this year, and they made it to the Super Bowl you would be well on your way to a good finish and I would have no problem going that route. That route gives you a good upside while differentiating from other owners. Even if you don’t run out the quarterbacks from these teams I think you should invest heavily in their offensive weapons which includes DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, and Antonio Brown. I would put LeVeon Bell in the same boat but am a little hesitant because of his injury.

I also really like the idea of going with Andrew Luck as an anchor for your team as no other team is asking their quarterback to do more than the Colts. If the Colts manage to make it to the Super Bowl you would be in line for one of the very top spots! Unfortunately, the problem with the Colts is they are relying so heavily on Luck and have the least amount of talent around him of any other team in the playoffs which will make it hard for him to win enough games to make the Super Bowl. Even so I think he has more than a 5% chance of making the Super Bowl and I don’t think he will be owned nearly that much making him the best upside pick.

If you want to play it a little safer I like the idea of going with Russell Wilson. Just like during the regular season we saw that Wilson could single handedly win you a week with his legs and he was often under owned throughout the season in big DFS GPPs. The Seahawks have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and have as good of a chance as anyone to play in three games and get the bonus points for the Super Bowl.

If you don’t go with Wilson I would recommend going with Marshawn Lynch from the Seahwaks since the rest of their offense isn’t very explosive. If you want to play contrarian and predict a Seahawks early loss then the defense might be a reasonable route to take.

The next roster spot that I think you want to lock in is Rob Gronkowski. Just like when I was building my regular season rosters and my strategy started with getting Gronkowski I think he is going to be the key pick in this format. If I had 100 entries I would probably pick Gronkowski in about 90 of them. I want to be getting 12 points for each “Gronk spike” in the Super Bowl. Additionally, the rest of the tight end pool is uninspiring and you get 1.5 points per Gronkowski catch.

Now that I have the key players filled in I want to start picking the best players from each team left. Looking at the Broncos I really like going with C.J Anderson if you still need a running back because the running back position dries up quickly if you don’t get one of the top running backs. If you don’t need a running back you can safely choose from their pass catchers. Demaryius Thomas is the safest choice and will most likely lead the Broncos in points but if you wanted to go a little contrarian and choose Emmanuel Sanders or even Julius Thomas on one of the teams without Gronkowski I wouldn’t have a problem with it.

The other team with a bye into the divisional round is the Packers. At the time of this writing I am going to assume that Aaron Rodgers is not going to be 100% but close to it since he finished the last game. Unfortunately we don’t know what his health will be exactly. What we do know is prior to his injury he was playing like the best quarterback in the league and he would make for a very solid pick if he was completely healthy. Even so his less than stellar health might make him a less popular pick and that keeps him as a very solid pick.

If you don’t go with Rodgers and still need a running back you are going to want to plug in Eddie Lacy. At this point if you don’t plug in Lacy you are going to have to take a big drop down to someone like Jeremy Hill. Which I don’t recommend. If you are getting to your flex positions I can still see putting Lacy in. But in general in contests like this where we are shooting for the stars I recommend filling as many of your flex positions with wide receivers as possible. As such I would recommend going with either Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson here. Nelson is my preferred option but will be the preferred option of most people so going contrarian with Cobb may be a good idea.

To finish off your roster we will look at the teams that are playing in the divisional round. I like each of the home teams to win their respective games and I also think the Cardinals are one of the two teams that you want to fade all their players. By getting to play the Cardinals I like going with the Panthers defense. My second favorite option on the Panthers would be Kelvin Benjamin as he can blow up at any time.

If you decide not to go with the Panthers defense your next best option is probably the Lions or Ravens. I don’t like using the Lions though because you could get great production from Calvin Johnson instead. He is the obvious pick there. A more contrarian pick from the Lions is Joique Bell who has played like a top 10 running back over the last few weeks of the season. If Bell out produces Johnson you will be ahead of a good chunk of the field.

For your final spots I think your best options are Adam Vinatieri or Justin Tucker at kicker and Jeremy Hill, Justin Forsett, T.Y. Hilton, or A.J. Green at your flex spot.

As you build your rosters keep in mind that your goal isn’t simply to score the most points but to outscore your opponents. Picking the safest roster possible might get you into the money but probably won’t win the top prize. This contest is one of my favorite each year. Take some chances and have fun with it. Below are three different lineup routes that I would take depending on the amount of risk you are willing to take.

Low risk

• QB Russell Wilson
• RB DeMarco Murray
• RB C.J. Anderson
• WR Antonio Brown
• WR Jordy Nelson
• TE Rob Gronkowski
• Flex Calvin Johnson
• Flex T.Y. Hilton
• K Justin Tucker
• D Carolina Panthers

Medium Risk

• QB Ben Roethlisberger
• RB DeMarco Murray
• RB Marshawn Lynch
• WR Demaryius Thomas
• WR Jordy Nelson
• TE Rob Gronkowski
• Flex Calvin Johnson
• Flex Jeremy Hill
• K Adam Vinatieri
• D Carolina Panthers

Higher Risk

• QB Andrew Luck
• RB Joique Bell
• RB Marshawn Lynch
• WR Antonio Brown
• WR Emmanuel Sanders
• TE Rob Gronkowski
• Flex Randall Cobb
• Flex Dez Bryant
• K Justin Tucker
• D Carolina Panthers

As always please send any questions to Buzzard@footballguys.com or follow me on Twitter Follow @SteveBuzzard