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The Importance of Game Scripts
One of the most important things to consider in building your DFS lineups, and especially your GPP lineups, is the game script. Game scripts tell us how the game played out. They tell us not only who won but how much they scored and how much they won by. The reason game scripts are important is because the score of the game is one of the most important factors in how often a team will pass or run the ball. I went through this in detail during the preseason at this article but the most important take away from that article for this point is this graph showing pass ratio by score of the game.
The reason game scripts are so important is if we can predict the flow of the game we can better determine if a team is going to pass or run more often before the game even starts. The best starting point for determining game scripts is the Vegas line combined with the over/under. John Lee does a great job of pointing this out on a weekly basis here. These lines are some of the best information you can use for your cash game lineups.
For GPP lineups what I recommend doing is coming up with your own game script telling the story of the game with your lineup. For example, last week I expected the Eagles to beat the Rams relatively easily. This wasn’t a stretch by any means as they were 7 point favorites. So the way my story was developed was that the Eagles would build a lead by passing for two touchdowns to Jeremy Maclin. After this lead was built the Rams would be forced to pass a lot on the below average defense of the Eagles. In doing so Austin Davis and Brian Quick would pick up a lot of garbage time points. As such I added all three players to the same lineup.
There are lots of different stories that you can tell like this. For example, this week you might feel like the Seahawks will build a big lead on the Cowboys and ice the game away on the ground resulting in a big game for Marshawn Lynch. If Lynch scores in the process of building this lead all the better. Then in comeback mode you might assume that Tony Romo will heavily target Dez Bryant despite the tight coverage of the Seahawks because they are desperate and Bryant is able to make some big plays.
If you combine two stories like this Lynch and Dez story with the story above to form the core of your lineup and fill in the rest based on value picks it becomes easier to hit the home run needed in a GPPs because the events are highly correlated where as if you picked 9 completely independent events you would need more stories to play out in your way. The key is to build a story that makes sense and go all in on it
Obviously by creating stories like this there is a greater chance that your lineup will completely bomb but we aren’t worried about bombing our GPP lineup since last place pays the same as anything outside of the top 10%. Even more you really need to reach the top 0.1% before your payouts get too large so we need to take big risks.
The further your story is from the Vegas line the better it becomes if you hit it because other owners won’t have the same players in their lineups. As such this is a good way to go contrarian and still be able to fill the rest of your team with the values you use in your cash games. For example, if we want to tell the story that Dez and Romo will be playing from behind so much that we stack them against the Seahawks this week there would be no need to go contrarian at any other position by just telling one story.
The final story that I like to tell is for my team defense and it is one that gets overlooked too often I think. I really like a defense that is heavily favored. Not one that is expected to hold a team to a low score. Let’s look at why in the lens of game scripts. Low scoring games are typically grind it out ground games where both teams are punting and playing very conservatively. Yes, we will get some points for keeping the score low but we don’t want conservative play. We want the offense on the other side to have to play aggressively in the passing game. Big deficits lead to expected passing plays so our defense can attack the quarterback creating pressured interceptions, sacks, and fumbles. All of which can be returned for touchdowns. As such I would prefer a defense like Denver’s this week which should win handily over a defense like Minnesota’s that is expected to keep the score low.
Fanduel GPP plays
Below are my weekly GPP plays at Fanduel. Throughout the season I will be employing strategies mentioned in Week 1 about contrarian plays. My goal will be to highlight players owned less than 10% to give you a contrarian option unless the player is such a good value that you should play him anyway. But remember that if you think a player will score three times their salary at a higher rate than their ownership level they are still a good buy. It is also important to remember you don’t need to go contrarian on everyone one of your positions. Additionally I will take the approach outlined in my preseason article about the best approach to allocating money in my lineups. In this article, I showed that in general it was best to spend on studs at wide receiver and to a lesser extent quarterback and save your money at running back and tight end.
Russell Wilson $8,400 8.9% - The Seahawks are favored by 8.5 in this game with a hefty point scored total of 28 points. While the potential game script would lead you to believe Lynch will be the beneficiary of these points there are two ways that I can see Wilson still hitting this value. First he could rush for or pass for the scores that build the lead or the Cowboys could keep the game close. Secondly, Tony Romo could put together one of those great games we have come to see and keep the game closer than planned. Wilson has passed for right around 200 yards and 2 TD every week plus he adds points on the ground. The Cowboys are allowing 7.2 NY/A and are 8th in adjusted defensive pass identity. Pairing Wilson with Percy Harvin makes a lot of sense as the Seahawks may have extra incentive to get Harvin into the end zone after having three touchdowns called back last week.
Giovani Bernard $8,700 4.4% - To be honest I would have never guessed that Bernard’s ownership would have fallen under 10% this week given A.J. Green’s injury. At this point the Bengals only really have three offensive weapons right now. Those are Bernard, Mohamed Sanu, and Jeremy Hill. Neither of the former two are as explosive as Bernard. With a projected score of 25 points who else will score the TDs? Finally, game script is on Bernard’s side as the Bengals are still 6.5 point favorites over the Panthers despite Green’s injury. If the Bengals really build a lead that could mean extra time for Hill but with the state of the offense I have a feeling the game will remain in doubt and they will want to grind the game away with Bernard.
Torrey Smith $5,200 3.6% - Torrey Smith has been one of the most disappointing players to date and his salary is starting to reflect it, sitting at a paltry $5,200. Up next is the Buccaneers who teams have had little problem passing on thus far. So far the Buccaneers are giving up 7.4 NY/A which is the 5th worst in the league. They also have a defensive pass identity that ranks 3rd in the league. Teams want to pass on the Buccaneers and aren’t having problems doing so. Additionally, the Ravens have publically said they want to get Smith more involved. His snap count has started to fall with the start, in fact he played his most snaps yet last week at 85%. Smith is a player capable of a huge at any time and this seems like as good of a week as any for one. Cheap price, low ownership, and bad defense if Smith doesn’t come through this week there won’t be many better opportunities rest of the year.
Julius Thomas $8,200 8.9% Last week Julius Thomas was the pick in this very spot and he came through with 2 touchdowns. I am going right back to the man as he has become Peyton Manning’s favorite red zone target. The Broncos are expected to score 28.5 points this week. The running game was obliterated last week when Montee Ball was injured and C.J. Anderson was inactive leaving Ronnie Hillman as the back expected to carry the load this week. I don’t see how this will be successful as the Jets have a solid run defense. Instead I expect the Broncos to do what every other team has done this year and pass on the Jet’s. The Jet are first in my adjusted defensive pass identity and I don’t think that will change much this week. That leaves Manning capable of throwing 3-4 TDs and most likely a couple of those will go to Julius Thomas. Stacking Thomas with Manning and another wide receiver appears to be +EV.