Navigating the Week 17 Landmines
For the first 16 weeks of the NFL season we learn more and more about each of the players on every single NFL team. Then week 17 comes along and flips everything on its head. There is a reason why most full season leagues decide to have their championship rounds during week 16 of the regular season and that’s simply because things tend to go a little crazy in week 17. However, in DFS you aren’t stuck with the same players that got your through a brutal fantasy schedule. Instead you can redraft your team specifically for week 17 which makes things a little easier. However, in doing so we need to spend the time to investigate what the incentives are for each team and player before making our selections.
First of all, during week 17 I am trying to avoid certain situations more than I am trying to seek out others. By avoiding these landmines we greatly increase our chances of success. The first landmine to avoid is star players on teams that have already clinched a playoff spot and a bye. Additionally, if they can’t improve their playoff spot significantly such as moving to a bye I include them in this same spot.
That means no Colts, Patriots, or Cowboys for me this week.
If you want to take a chance, some of the backups from these teams are reasonable options for GPP plays. This would include guys like Hakeem Nicks, but I wouldn’t try them in cash games.
The next set of teams that I worry about are the teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs the last few weeks. The reason they worry me is because we don’t really know what they are going to be thinking coming into the game. They may not try at all because they are let down from not making the playoffs. Additionally, they may want to test out some of their young talent to see what they have for next year. In short, the players from these teams need to be a great deal for me to get them into my lineups.
This one is a little more subjective but I include the Eagles, Saints, Bills and possibly the 49ers and Dolphins in this group. That means I will be staying away from Mark Sanchez, Jimmy Graham, and Kenny Stills despite each of them being priced very well and being players that I have targeted the last few weeks.
You may be asking, why not just include all teams that are eliminated from the playoffs, aren’t they missing the same incentives? I think you could argue this to a degree, however in many cases these teams have come to the realization that their season is over and won’t be as down coming into this game. Additionally, each of these other teams have had some chance to start to get their young second string players into action so we have a better idea of who they really will want to feature in their game this week.
So if the teams above are the teams we want to target the teams fighting for a playoff spot must be the teams that we want to target, right? Not so fast. The prime targets are going to be the teams playing those teams listed above. If we aren’t sure what exactly these teams listed above are going to try to do then we want the teams that can take advantage of the possibly weaker defenses. We all saw what Tony Romo and Dez Bryant did against the Colts who could have cared less about that game.
This gives us the Titans, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Buccaneers, but no one from the Bills and Patriots game. Unfortunately, several of these aren’t the teams that you typically want to target and none of them have anything to play for. However, it does allow you to specifically look at Odell Beckham Jr, Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and Delanie Walker. Several of these guys will be staples in my lineup this week.
The final set of teams that we want to look at are the teams that have everything to gain with a win such as a first round bye or just making the playoffs. Obviously we know what the incentive is for these teams. Packers, Lions, Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks, Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Texans, Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs.
However, if a playoff contender is playing another playoff contender for the right to move on there are no additional incentives for one team over the other. As such those players are play as normal. However, for teams with a shot at improving their playoff position that will be going against teams that are eliminated from playoff contention I am just as excited about those players as I am the guys just mentioned earlier. This includes the Seahawks, Ravens, Texans, and Broncos. Obviously the possible problem with these teams could be that they build up a lead to clinch the win and then start resting their players early during the fourth quarter.
Some of the players I am especially interested in here are Russell Wilson, C.J. Anderson, Arian Foster, Justin Forsett, Andre Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, all of their defenses and possibly Marshawn Lynch as a GPP only play.
When building your lineups this week, especially cash game lineups, it is important to remember that the most important thing to Keep in mind is what types of incentives does my player and team have. What you don’t want to have happen is get a guy on your team that has no incentive to play well. This is what happened to Donte Moncrief last week as he burned me and a lot of other people. But if you think through each situation you will be able to find yourself in a winning situation come Sunday night.
Fanduel GPP plays
Below are my weekly GPP plays at Fanduel. Throughout the season I will be employing strategies mentioned in Week 1 about contrarian plays. My goal will be to highlight players owned less than 10% to give you a contrarian option unless the player is such a good value that you should play him anyway. But remember that if you think a player will score three times their salary at a higher rate than their ownership level they are still a good buy. It is also important to remember you don’t need to go contrarian on everyone one of your positions. Additionally I will take the approach outlined in my preseason article about the best approach to allocating money in my lineups. In this article, I showed that in general it was best to spend on studs at wide receiver and to a lesser extent quarterback and save your money at running back and tight end.
Russell Wilson - $8,600 - The Rams are not a good matchup for anyone. But no defense is a good matchup for Russell Wilson, either. The Seahawks defense is really clicking during the second half of the season and that is when Wilson is at his best as he doesn’t have to force things. As mentioned above Wilson gets a favorable matchup against a team without anything to play for and his team has everything to play for. I suspect the Rams defense will be good enough to keep the ownership levels on Wilson low enough. As we have seen throughout the year Wilson is good enough to win you some GPPs by himself.
Devonta Freeman $5,100 – Many owners will most likely be on Jacquizz Rodgers who finished last week’s game with 12 touches compared to 8 for Freeman after Steven Jackson left the game. Additionally, Rodgers is expected to start the game which will keep owners off Freeman. However, Freeman is the much more explosive back and with this being a must win game there is a good chance that the Falcons are going to want to get the ball into the hands of their playmaker. If they do a few times Freeman could pay off handsomely due to his cheap price. He isn’t for the faint of heart but sometimes you need to take a chance.
Matt Forte $8,800 – Before the season a good friend of mine that happens to be a Bears fan asked me what I thought the odds were for the Bears to have four players with a hundred receptions. I told him I didn’t think it was very probable and one of the main reasons was only one time in history has a running back caught over 100 yards. Brian Westbrook never did it. Ladanian Tomlinson never did it. Matt Forte wasn’t very likely to do it especially on a team with so many pass catching weapons. Well, we all know that the receiving corps ended up with lots of injuries and Jay Cutler had a down year. Now here we are going into week 17 and Matt Forte has 94 catches. My guess is the Bears try to feed Forte the ball to get him over 100 yards and if he breaks a couple of them for big gains he could be in for a big day. I am sure I will hear all about it come Monday morning.
Odell Beckham Jr - $9,200 – Beckham won’t be flying under the radar this week. However, he still makes a great play this week as he meets my primary requirements above for motivation factors as the Giants should be mildly motivated and the Eagles bound for a letdown. On top of that, as fellow staffer Jeff Pasquino astutely pointed out Beckham only needs 90 yards to break Michael Irvin’s rookie receiving record. While those 90 yards won’t hit value for you I don’t see any way the Giants don’t push for this record in another wise meaningless game making that his floor and if he hits some TDs along the way he could be on his way to another big day. Fade him at your own risk.
Delanie Walker $5,200 – Walker has had a lot of upside all year long as he was one of the most heavily targeted tight ends all season long. With Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham basically unplayable this week due to their team risks I will turn to my other GPP staple of Walker. With a plus matchup against the Colts who will be resting a good part of the game I see Walker catching several passes and most likely one will be in the end zone.
As always please send any questions to Buzzard@footballguys.com or follow me on Twitter Follow @SteveBuzzard