How are Players Actually Allocating Their Funds in GPPs Part II?
Last week I took a look how some of the expert daily players were allocating their funds at the wide receiver and running back positions in both GPPs and Head to Head games. This week I am going to take a look at the other positions of Quarterback, Tight End, and Defense.
First, a couple of quick reminders from last week. Since FanDuel doesn’t allow us to get player ownerships by player very easily all of the following data will be from DraftKings. I think this data will be fairly consistent across both DraftKings and FanDuel but note that there are two big differences that can skew the results.
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DraftKings offers a full PPR where as Fanduel offers only half point PPR
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DraftKings offers a flex spot which can be a RB, WR, or TE.
Starting at quarterback we find that the average player is paying $7,429 in head to head games and $7,386 in GPPs which is a very slight 0.6% decrease as players move from head to head to GPP. This is pretty much as expected in my preseason article since quarterback is the most flexible position and can be used to stack the quarterbacks with their wide receivers giving us even more options to be flexible.
If we look at experts we see they follow the same pattern spending $7,306 on quarterbacks in head to head games and $7,301 in head to head games for basically no change at all. The more interesting thing that sticks out here is that experts spend $122 less on their QB in head to head games and $86 less on their QB than the average player in GPPs.
This is a significant thing to take advantage of at Draftkings. However, I don’t think it represents a real opportunity at Fanduel because the pricing structure of quarterbacks differ significantly between the sites. At Fanduel you should continue to pay up for a quarterback but may want to be more cautious in doing so at Draftkings.
Taking a look at Tight Ends we see that the average player pays $4,638 in head to head games whereas they spend about 4% more or $4,824 in GPPs. This is most likely an increased rate of paying for Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, or Rob Gronkowksi.
This increase in spending makes sense given the variance at the position. But interestingly average players still aren’t paying up for Tight Ends as much as experts. The experts pay more for their Tight Ends in both head to head and GPP games at $4,718 and $5,021, respectively. This represent an increase of 6.4% which is also greater than the rate of the average player.
Finally, taking a quick look at defenses we see the average player spends 3,041 no matter if they are playing a GPP or a head to head game. On the other hand experts tend to pay up a lot more for their defenses in GPPs. They aren’t willing to pay much at all in a head to head game paying only $2,883 but are willing to actually pay slightly more than the average players at $3,050 in GPPs. This is a big increase as the experts try to diversify their picks and hope for a blow up type of game that can win them a GPP like the Packers put together last week.
In summary, by combining the two articles, if you want to play more like an expert in GPPs you should pay more than what you most likely currently are at Wide receiver, Defense, and Tight End. You should get those savings from your Tight End and Running Back positions and at DraftKings by paying less at Quarterback. Obviously this also means you should do the opposite in head to head games.
Fanduel GPP plays
Below are my weekly GPP plays at Fanduel. Throughout the season I will be employing strategies mentioned in Week 1 about contrarian plays. My goal will be to highlight players owned less than 10% to give you a contrarian option unless the player is such a good value that you should play him anyway. But remember that if you think a player will score three times their salary at a higher rate than their ownership level they are still a good buy. It is also important to remember you don’t need to go contrarian on everyone one of your positions. Additionally I will take the approach outlined in my preseason article about the best approach to allocating money in my lineups. In this article, I showed that in general it was best to spend on studs at wide receiver and to a lesser extent quarterback and save your money at running back and tight end.
Quarterback
Mark Sanchez $7,500 7% - Well that was short. Last week Mark Sanchez turned back into pumpkin and was again the butt of jokes across the league as he threw a pick six and had a fumble returned for a touchdown. But let’s not forget he actually threw for 346 yards and 2 TDs in the process on his way to a decent score of 15.84. This isn’t a score that is going to win you a GPP but this week he gets another matchup that is neutral against the Titans. While I don’t typically get excited about neutral matchups this becomes a lot more favorable given that Sanchez’s price has not risen much since he took over the lead quarterback job and still sits at $7,500 despite averaging 339 and 2 TDs the last two weeks. If he gets these stats he will be close to value already. Additionally his ownership levels are still fairly low because of the debacle that was last week. Finally, Vegas has Sanchez at the second highest projected score of the week at 30 points. All of these signs points me to buying all day long.
Running Back
C.J. Anderson $7,200 5% - Anderson is the last man standing in the Peyton Manning led offense that is pegged to score 28 points this week. Last season the Broncos offense was a plug and play for their lead back and Anderson clearly qualifies at this point playing on 94% of all snaps last week. He is probably the most talented player on their team even when Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman come back so it isn't like he is lacking in talent. The Dolphins have been tough against the run allowing 7% less yards per carry than the league average. However, they have been even tougher against the pass allowing 20% less than league average. Most teams have found the easiest route to go is to run on the Dolphins and they rank in the bottom 10 in adjusted pass ratios. We know that Manning likes to take advantage of what the defense is willing to give him and this week it may be a lot of running opportunities. If Anderson can find a way to break a big play or score a couple of TDs he will be a great value play.
Wide Receiver
Cecil Shorts $6,300 – 4% - Shorts is another beneficiary of situation as the Jaguars lost Allen Robinson for the season before the bye. This opens up about 8 targets a game and I think Shorts will be one of the big beneficiaries. Vontae Davis primarily stays on the right side of the field and while Shorts does move around a bit he plays most of his snaps on the left side. Given the fact that the Jaguars had extra time to prepare for this game coming off a bye I would expect them to fully consider Davis’s tendancies and play their best receiver, Shorts, away from Davis. The Jaguars are 14 point underdogs and if the game goes as expected they will be playing catch up a lot of this game which should mean for double digit targets for Shorts and a good shot for some garbage time scores.
Tight End
Coby Fleener $5,400 – 30% - This week I think there are only three real choices for GPP’s. They are Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, and Coby Fleener. Fleener by far has the best chance to reach value but he is also being owned like it. As such I wouldn’t have any problems going with either of the other options. You will very rarely see me suggest a player with this level of ownership in a GPP but this week I think it is warranted. If Fleener scores well as expected you are playing catch up at other positions. If he bombs his price is low enough that his owners aren’t out of it yet. Fleener feels like a play it safe and go with the high owned player this week. Fleener gets to take over for Dwayne Allen this week and gets to catch his passes from Andrew Luck in the game with the highest expected total of 32 points. Hard to not love that situation. Your biggest fear is the Colts jumping up to a big lead and putting on the breaks in the run game before Fleener gets going. However, the Colts haven’t gone to the run game to ice games away too often this year as they are the most pass happy team even after adjusting for game situation. I will take my chance against those odds.
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