Thanks to those of you who have been loyal readers over the years. This feature won't change much this year. If you're new to the inseason columns, welcome. I'll be transitioning from tiers and draft strategy -- though there will still be tiers featured in the coming weeks -- to team-by-team notes, every-down linebacker tables and discussion, and film study of IDP breakouts and disappointments. Those three elements will be a part of the RTD every week. There will also be a healthy dose of the usual metrics -- tackle opportunity, run-pass ratios, stat crew trends -- and more.
I'm available via email (bramel@footballguys.com) and on Twitter (@JeneBramel). Reach out to me at either outlet for discussion and suggestions.
EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS
When I first began writing this feature years ago, schemes and position were a key part of IDP analysis. They still are. But, back then, there were fewer subpackage snaps and hardly any platoon situations at linebacker. Teams played a base defense -- then usually a 4-3 -- about 65-70% of the time. When they substituted on passing downs, it was almost always to a standard 4-2-5, with a cornerback replacing the strong side linebacker.
That doesn't happen anymore. Teams play a minority of their snaps in the base defense, sometimes as little as 20-25% of their snaps. Those base snaps are multiple fronts, with players switching responsibilities from one snap to the next. The subpackages are more varied than ever. 14-17 defenders may play at least 30-40% of their team's defensive snaps in any given game.
So, over the past few seasons, snap count has become all-important to IDP value. And while there are rotations along every defensive line and substitution patterns of note in the secondary, knowing each team's every-down linebackers has become a key piece of analysis to any successful IDP roster strategy.
I've been producing this table in the IDP Forum for many years. This year, I'm adding it to the weekly RTD. There will be a set of brief notes after the table each week, with extended discussion in the team-by-team notes section to follow.
NOTE: Those listed as every-down in italics are injury replacements who won't be every-down players when injured players return.
TEAM | EVERY-DOWN LBs | 75-100% SNAPS | INJ | SUSP |
ARIZONA | LARRY FOOTE | [DARYL WASHINGTON] | |
ATLANTA | PAUL WORRILOW | JOPLO BARTU, KROY BIERMANN | [SEAN WEATHERSPOON] |
BALTIMORE | DARYL SMITH, C.J. MOSLEY | TERRELL SUGGS | |
BUFFALO | PRESTON BROWN | NIGEL BRADHAM | [KIKO ALONSO] |
CAROLINA | LUKE KUECHLY, THOMAS DAVIS | ||
CHICAGO | LANCE BRIGGS | ||
CINCINNATI | EMMANUEL LAMUR, VINNY REY | VONTAZE BURFICT | |
CLEVELAND | KARLOS DANSBY | ||
DALLAS | ANTHONY HITCHENS, BRUCE CARTER | ROLANDO MCCLAIN, [SEAN LEE], [JUSTIN DURANT] | |
DENVER | BRANDON MARSHALL | VON MILLER | DANNY TREVATHAN, NATE IRVING |
DETROIT | DEANDRE LEVY | [STEPHEN TULLOCH] | |
GREEN BAY | A.J. HAWK, CLAY MATTHEWS | JULIUS PEPPERS | |
HOUSTON | |||
INDIANAPOLIS | JERRELL FREEMAN, D'QWELL JACKSON | BJOERN WERNER | [ROBERT MATHIS] |
JACKSONVILLE | J.T. THOMAS | [PAUL POSLUSZNY] | |
KANSAS CITY | JUSTIN HOUSTON, TAMBA HALI, JOSH MAUGA | [DERRICK JOHNSON] | |
MIAMI | JELANI JENKINS | ||
MINNESOTA | CHAD GREENWAY, ANTHONY BARR | ||
NEW ENGLAND | DONT'A HIGHTOWER, ROB NINKOVICH, JAMIE COLLINS | CHANDLER JONES, [JEROD MAYO] | |
NEW ORLEANS | CURTIS LOFTON, RAMON HUMBER | JUNIOR GALETTE | DAVID HAWTHORNE |
NEW YORK GIANTS | JACQUIAN WILLIAMS, JAMEEL MCCLAIN | [JON BEASON] | |
NEW YORK JETS | DAVID HARRIS, DEMARIO DAVIS | CALVIN PACE, QUINTON COPLES | |
OAKLAND | SIO MOORE, MILES BURRIS, KHALIL MACK | [NICK ROACH] | |
PHILADELPHIA | MYCHAL KENDRICKS | TRENT COLE, CONNOR BARWIN | [DEMECO RYANS] |
PITTSBURGH | LAWRENCE TIMMONS, JASON WORILDS | JARVIS JONES, RYAN SHAZIER | |
ST. LOUIS | JAMES LAURINAITIS, ALEC OGLETREE | ||
SAN DIEGO | DONALD BUTLER | MANTI TE'O | |
SAN FRANCISCO | MICHAEL WILHOITE, CHRIS BORLAND | AHMAD BROOKS, ALDON SMITH | NAVORRO BOWMAN, [PATRICK WILLIS] |
SEATTLE | K.J. WRIGHT | BOBBY WAGNER | |
TAMPA BAY | LAVONTE DAVID, MASON FOSTER | ||
TENNESSEE | AVERY WILLIAMSON | WESLEY WOODYARD, DERRICK MORGAN | [ZACH BROWN] |
WASHINGTON | KEENAN ROBINSON, PERRY RILEY, RYAN KERRIGAN, TRENT MURPHY | [BRIAN ORAKPO] |
TEAM-BY-TEAM NOTES
You'll find a little of everything here. Mostly, I'll be noting depth chart changes and analyzing any scheme or role changes from the previous week's games. I'll also use this section to take an in-depth look at why certain players may be over- or under-performing. I'll try to get through every team each week as often as possible.
Veteran's Day travel and a heavier than usual work schedule have limited my time and kept me from working through every team this week. I focused primarily on updating the every-down linebacker table and hitting the key highlights below. A full reckoning of each team will be back next week. I'll also start my year-end, two-part matchup update for those looking to exploit every edge during the playoff weeks. And the Sunday AM Game Notes feature will have notes on every team's injury and depth chart situations.
ATLANTA
Prince Shembo got his first snaps with the base defense in about a month last week. Joplo Bartu out-snapped him 30-15, but Shembo may be on the verge of flipping that script once again. Kemal Ishmael has seen his playing time drop a bit with Dez Southward improving. William Moore may return to practice soon and bump Ishmael from the defensive huddle altogether. This week's matchup in Carolina is okay, but will be assist-heavy. If there's an upgrade available on waivers, now is the time to make the move.
CINCINNATI
There's no question the Cincinnati stat crew has changed course once again midseason. Using Larry Thomas' stat crew data, the Bengals crew was awarding 1.198 / 1.116 / 1.078 tackles per tackle opportunity in their first three games this year. Over the last three weeks, that number rose to 1.277 / 1.250 / 1.317. Cincinnati is on the road over the next three games, then has home games against PIT (W14) and DEN (W16). That Pittsburgh game might be a killer if assists are worth 1/2 tackles in your league.
DALLAS
Rolando McClain was active but didn't play last week. That gave Bruce Carter a chance to play every down next to Anthony Hitchens. McClain may be back this week and, if he's practicing, it's likely he'll return to an every-down role with Hitchens. But it's nice to see confirmation Carter will be back in a favorable situation if McClain can't go. DeMarcus Lawrence saw a surprising 42 snaps against Jacksonville (59% of the Dallas base snaps). That number is boosted by the blowout situation in the second half, but it's notable. Lawrence didn't get to the quarterback despite the high opportunity against a weak offensive line, but he didn't look lost either. I still doubt we see much upside for Lawrence in 2014, but the Week 12 date with the Giants will be telling.
DENVER
The Broncos went back to a Big Nickel look against Oakland, with T.J. Ward playing more snaps in the box in nickel situations. Ward responded with a 4-3 effort on 45 tackle opportunities and an interception. He's worth a look against St. Louis this week and the playoff week matchups look fairly strong, too.
DETROIT
Tahir Whitehead (base) rotated with Josh Bynes (nickel) last week and his IDP value has all but dried up. Kyle Van Noy saw his first game action but played just two snaps. Ezekiel Ansah is seemingly on the injury report every week but is on a ridiculous run right now with six sacks in four games and, according to Pro Football Focus, 20 sacks/hits/hurries over those games. He gets Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Chicago in Weeks 14-16. You probably won't be able to get his current owner to part with him, but I'd try anyway. If you've got him on your roster, root for him to stay healthy for those three weeks. He may carry you to a nice payday.
GREEN BAY
The biggest IDP news of the week -- and possibly the regular season if you aren't counting the ridiculous number of linebacker injuries -- was the move of Clay Matthews to inside linebacker last week. I'm not sure what was more surprising, that the Packers moved their best pass rusher inside on early downs or that Matthews was so successful playing the run. Matthews was everywhere, playing downhill between the tackles and relentlessly pursuing to the sideline. You can bet opposing offensive coordinators are going to scheme more ways to get an offensive lineman on Matthews on run plays, but he's an immediate LB2+ in all formats right now.
JACKSONVILLE
J.T. Thomas was not good last week but he'll continue to get enough opportunity to put up numbers, assuming Jeremiah George cannot recover quickly from his ankle injury.
KANSAS CITY
Joe Mays was active and presumably ready to take over as the starting base strong inside linebacker last week. He played on special teams only. Andy Reid said he wanted Mays to get used to the speed of the game on special teams. Reid also noted James-Michael Johnson and Josh Mauga were playing too well to make a mid-season switch. We'll see if that changes this week. Mauga should be safe regardless of what the Chiefs decide to do with Mays.
MIAMI
I warned not to dump Jelani Jenkins last week, expecting his numbers to rebound as Miami's tackle opportunity improved with the more favorable matchups upcoming. Despite less opportunity than I would've projected (19 rush attempts, 49 total opportunities), Jenkins put up a strong 7-0-1 week. The Thursday night home matchup against Buffalo could have a unfavorable game script for Jenkins, but his pass rush upside makes up for a weaker tackle expectation. After that, the schedule is really strong.
NEW ORLEANS
Sam Monson from Pro Football Focus again highlighted Kenny Vaccaro's struggles on Twitter this week, noting his 15 missed tackles in nine games. Many of those tackles have come in key moments. Vaccaro has been out of position or attempting an arm tackle from an awkward angle too often. It's hard to know if he's still not trusting his legs, trying to hard and overrunning his gap responsibility or just plain having an off season. Either way, he's been a huge disappointment.
NEW YORK JETS
Jaiquawn Jarrett started at safety with Dawan Landry last week, with Calvin Pryor playing only a special teams role. Reports are Pryor missed multiple meetings in recent weeks and was benched. Jarrett had two interceptions and a sack. Don't expect those big plays to happen again, but Jarrett has some tackle upside if he sticks in the role coming out of the bye week.
PITTSBURGH
Vince Williams and Sean Spence rotated for Ryan Shazier and will do so again this week. I'm confident Shazier has a high ankle sprain, but he'll have a chance to be back after Pittsburgh's Week 12 bye. Lawrence Timmons will continue to benefit.
ST. LOUIS
Mark Barron played a slot/robber role against the Cardinals. He was either on a seek-and-destroy mission against the run or used as a blitzing defensive back. Pro Football Focus has him down for 15 pass rushes on 33 snaps and charted him as having three impact plays in the pocket in addition to his sack. He also had four non-sack solo tackles. It's a very interesting role -- akin to a much more aggressive Antrel Rolle.
SAN FRANCISCO
Patrick Willis went on injured reserve on Tuesday. There were ominous signs last week when he wasn't able to practice at all after a limited week of practice the previous week. After the IR move was announced, Willis told reporters his toe injury had been bothering him for years. It's a big loss for the Niners. But there's a silver lining in fantasy leagues for those who have been riding the Chris Borland wave. With NaVorro Bowman also struggling to recover from his knee injury (he reportedly is having soreness, but may return to practice this week), Borland is in line for a long run with little competition for tackles. He's arguably a LB1 for the stretch run. Aaron Lynch played every down with Dan Skuta out and may be playing well enough to allow the Niners to rotate Aldon Smith in more slowly than might have been expected.
SEATTLE
Let's hope we don't see Bobby Wagner's injury follow a similar path to that of Patrick Willis. Brock Coyle is still starting at middle linebacker, but will not play enough to be a fantasy option. The Seahawks should continue to get healthier, with Byron Maxwell nearing a return to his every down role after rotating last week and Kam Chancellor expected to practice and return to play this week, too.
TENNESSEE
Avery Williamson essentially played every down against Baltimore. He's also beginning to see the usual pass rush opportunity bump we've seen from many Ray Horton inside linebackers in the past. He's an every-week LB2 now.
INSIDE THE METRICS
If you're a long time reader of this column, you know about tackle opportunity and you know about stat crew anomalies. I didn't write about either much last season, but I'm going back to the roots of the RTD and making metrics a regular feature again this year.
The power of the data in this section will grow exponentially as the season progresses and our sample size increases. In time, the tackle opportunity data and pressure metrics and run-pass ratios will be helpful in matchup decisions, waiver wire pulls and more.
coming in weeks 12 and 13
Tackle and pass rush matchups for your playoff run.
Want more great ideas for lineup management? Start checking out Larry Thomas' defensive data sheet. It's posted every Tuesday on our inseason IDP content section.
Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our weekly IDP podcast here every Thursday for injury updates, player analysis and matchup discussion. Check my article page on Sunday morning for notes on every team's key injuries, depth chart changes and IDP expectations. Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel.