This is always one of my favorite features to write at Footballguys. Researching and analyzing the coaching and coordinator changes is the first step to understanding how every defense plans to attack an offense the following year.
In the past, that meant labeling each team as a 4-3 or 3-4 base defense. As often as possible, adding a qualifier like “Miami” 4-3 or “Tampa-2” or “1-gap” 3-4 added a key piece of information that narrowed down the best positions for statistical production.
Unfortunately, to corrupt a phrase from Ferris Bueller, the NFL moves pretty fast. You don’t stop and look around once in awhile, and you could miss something. And I think it’s time to step back and reconsider just how valuable those base defensive notes and qualifiers are in today’s NFL.
Defenses in the NFL aren’t that straightforward anymore. Most coordinators used to work with a playbook with a single primary base defense and a single primary nickel package. We could label a defense as a 1-gap 3-4 or a Tampa-2 leaning 4-3 and have a good idea about how a player would be used for the vast majority of his snaps.
Not anymore.
The term “multiple” started to creep into the table I would produce in the IDP forum highlighting each team’s defensive scheme three or four years ago. A small handful of teams would use both 3-4 and 4-3 concepts, but would still predominantly lean one way.
Now every team is “multiple.” And today’s “multiple” is a much more complicated term. A predominantly 3-4 (or 4-3) team may utilize both 1-gap and 2-gap concepts – on the same snap. Nearly every coordinator uses a variety of situational subpackages. Some never use the once-traditional 4-2-5 nickel formation at all. Many teams use a situational defense more often than their base defense. Coverages are multiple, too, with some teams using man concepts on one side of the ball and zone on the other.
It’s still important to consider the coach or coordinator’s preferred philosophy. But knowing each team’s base defensive front is no longer as critical. Snap counts and knowing which players on a given defense will see the most subpackage opportunity are growing more important.
If you’re thinking that those factors will often change from week to week and will lead to more variance in IDP leagues, you’re absolutely correct. Long time IDP owners have felt the increased variance – though the multiplicity of defensive fronts isn’t the only reason – over the past 2-3 seasons. The trend away from a true base defense has also thrown a wrench into many defaults and guidelines used by IDP owners over time.
But that’s a tangent for another column.
The table of each team’s coach and defensive coordinator is at the end of this column. It will include my expectation of what each team’s base front is likely to be. But note how nearly every blurb to follow on the 2014 coaching changes includes a quote from a coach who pushes back when questioned on his preferred base defense.
Tampa Bay hires Lovie Smith as head coach, Leslie Frazier as defensive coordinator
(replacing Greg Schiano / Bill Sheridan)
Smith’s hiring sent quite a few media analysts and nearly all of the Twitterverse into a fit of apoplexy about the return of the Tampa-2 scheme to Tampa and the chances it would mean continued misuse of Darrelle Revis. However, while Smith spent his formative years under Tony Dungy learning the Tampa-2 and Frazier has made it a big part of his playbook, the narrative that the Buccaneers will use the Tampa-2 anything near full time is dead wrong.
In Chicago, Smith mixed more aggressive concepts into his Tampa-2 looks. While he rarely used more than his front four to generate pass rush, he frequently showed pressure in the A gaps with Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. And he asked Charles Tillman and others to play a more physical game at corner than his Tampa-2 forbears had. Frazier has been conservative in recent seasons, but played under Buddy Ryan and tinkered with aggressive defensive fronts in Cincinnati before joining Dungy in Indianapolis.
Smith hammered that home in his initial press conference, saying:
"There's a reason why we have Tampa 2 associated to one of our coverages," Smith said. "But I just want you to know -- and especially Darrelle Revis -- that we don't play Cover 2 every snap, all right? We have a place for a great cover corner that's physical and can do all things.”
That’s not to say that Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy won’t benefit from Lovie Smith’s style of play. Since they were already elite IDP options, there’s not much more value that can be added. We are, however, likely to see the Bucs prioritize pass rushers this offseason. An elite edge rusher at right defensive end in Lovie’s scheme will have high IDP upside.
It may also mean that whoever wins the starting job opposite Revis will see even more statistical opportunity. Don't discount Revis' IDP upside either. Revis isn't Tillman, but if his target counts rise he could be a CB2++ caliber player.
Houston hires Bill O’Brien as head coach, Romeo Crennel as defensive coordinator
(replacing Gary Kubiak / Wade Phillips)
O’Brien is an offensive mind, so the Houston defense will have Crennel’s fingerprints all over it. Crennel’s defenses, stretching all the way back to his many years in New York with the Giants and Jets, have been primarily 2-gap 3-4 fronts. His preference has often been to have big bodies up front drawing double teams, paving the way for his linebackers to make plays against the run and the pass.
What that means for J.J. Watt remains to be seen. Even an old school 3-4 coach like Crennel has worked in some variable front concepts in recent seasons, especially in his subpackages. But Crennel’s 3-4 is generally much different than that of departing coordinator Wade Phillips. Crennel told Lance Zierlein last month that he expected to play out of a base 3-4, but be a multiple defense. When Zierlein asked specifically about space-eating vs penetrating defensive tackles, Crennel said he’s comfortable with both, but has yet to decide what to do with the Texans.
We may get a few clues during free agency and the draft should the Texans add one type of defensive lineman over the other. For now, I wouldn’t panic over J.J. Watt’s value. Though it’s happened before with lesser talents, I can’t see Crennel marginalizing the best defensive player in the league to run a scheme that’s become a dinosaur in the league.
Crennel’s hiring won’t impact the inside linebacker group. The IDP value there is dependent on the health of Brian Cushing and whether the Texans can bring in some above replacement level talent to compete with Darryl Sharpton and others. Crennel tends to favor Cover-2 concepts in the secondary, which could negatively impact the tackle upside of D.J. Swearinger Sr.
I’m looking forward to hearing more about Crennel’s alignments. Hopefully, the Texans will tip their hand before the preseason begins.
Buffalo hires Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator (replacing Mike Pettine)
On paper, there are major differences in the way Schwartz (wide nine concepts, less blitzing, primarily 4-3 fronts) and Pettine (multiple fronts, multiple coverages, variety of blitzes) operate defensively. But both coaches fall on the more aggressive, penetrating end of the Bell Curve of defensive playbooks.
Schwartz also refused to be pinned down when asked to describe his defense during his introductory press conference.
Q: How would you describe your defense?
JS: I don’t know if you can put it in a box like that, we’ve never put a label on it. In this league you’re going to have to play some eight man fronts to stop the run. There’s going to be some games where you’re not going to play much (eight man fronts). It’s going to be opponent specific. It’s going to be multi-dimensional enough to be able to do that. I mentioned before trying to put players in good positions and positions that fit their capabilities. We’re an attack scheme, it’s a scheme built on the guys up front getting after the quarterback. As much as you want to be multi-dimensional with personnel groups, this league comes down to one on one and I think we have some guys that can do that. Whatever anybody wants to tag the system as far as a name, it won’t be us. We’re just going to try to do whatever we can every week to do the best to have the game plan. I think the similarities you’ll see is it will be as aggressive as it can be and try to be as physical as we can be and it will be an attack style.Q: The wide nine is a term that is thrown around with you, is it fair to say that’s still part of your defense?
JS: Yeah, mostly that’s thrown around by people that couldn’t line it up if they wanted to. That’s no disrespect to those people. I’ll say this, there’s 32 teams in the NFL and all 32 line up in a wide nine. Not all of them are called wide nine teams, but that’s just the way it goes. That’s what it developed into because it fit our personnel and it fit what our opponents did. You can dictate something your opponents did and it makes it hard on offense. There’s some things that you need to constantly work because like anything it has strengths and weaknesses. It will certainly be part of our scheme here, but that won’t define our scheme.
Despite Schwartz’ reluctance to label his own defense, I think it’s likely that we’ll see more base 4-3 from Buffalo this season. That would re-classify Mario Williams to defensive end in all formats. It’s a good situation for Kiko Alonso, who fits best in an attacking front. His upside will depend on his continued development. You should also be watching the outside linebacker battle closely in mini-camps. If an every-down option emerges, Schwartz’s scheme is outside linebacker friendly.
Tennessee hires Ken Whisenhunt as head coach, Ray Horton as defensive coordinator
(replacing Mike Munchak / Jerry Gray)
Horton was likely an easy choice for Whisenhunt, after two seasons working together in Arizona in the same roles. At the introductory press conference, Whisenhunt praised Horton. “Scheme-wise, one of the most impressive things about Ray is his flexibility. He has the ability to go between a 4-3 and 3-4 and put our players in the best position to succeed.”
Though Horton has primarily been an aggressive 3-4 coordinator after his seven seasons learning under Dick LeBeau in Pittsburgh, the prevailing theme of flexibility and scheme-diversity colored Horton’s comments as well. “As for our defensive system, I have said from day one that I don’t coach a particular alignment, I coach men who want to get after it and we will play physical and fundamentally sound. We will do whatever suits the men that I coach and whatever the Tennessee Titans can do best.”
What suits the Titans is an open question. The current depth chart could support a 3-4 front, especially if Horton feels like adding an edge rusher to pair with Akeem Ayers at outside linebacker and Jurrell Casey as a penetrating 5-technique is a smarter approach than relying on Derrick Morgan and others in a 4-3. The other dilemma facing Horton is whether any of the Titans’ current off the line of scrimmage linebackers meet his needs. Zach Brown is athletic, but inconsistent and a long way from Horton’s former centerpiece in Arizona, Daryl Washington.
Horton has his work cut out for him. His decisions during the draft and OTAs will be fascinating to watch. Until then, projecting the Tennessee depth chart and its IDP values is guesswork. The strongest fantasy options may not be on the roster yet.
Cleveland hires Mike Pettine as head coach and Jim O’Neil as defensive coordinator
(replacing Rob Chudzinski and Ray Horton)
Like Horton, Pettine is a fan of aggressive, multiple front schemes. Horton’s foundation is based on Dick LeBeau’s fire zone concepts; Pettine comes from the Rex Ryan school of 46-like, blitz-heavy formations. The Browns will use Pettine’s scheme and playbook. O’Neil was with Pettine in both New York and Buffalo and Pettine has said he’ll be calling the defensive signals in 2014 and until O’Neil is deemed ready to handle those responsbilities.
Pettine said in his introductory remarks that he’ll fit his system to the players on his roster and he wasn’t ready to talk specifically about base defense and scheme. But it didn't take Pettine long to blow up his linebacker group by releasing D'Qwell Jackson. While Jackson will get lots of looks around the league (he's currently said to be choosing among Miami, Indianapolis, Denver and Tennessee), the best IDP value for the Browns this year may not be on the roster. Don't count on any current Cleveland linebacker to be a big 2014 value yet. That includes Craig Robertson, who wasn't anything special after beating James-Michael Johnson to an every-down job last year. Do keep an eye on how Pettine uses Barkevious Mingo during OTAs and camp. He'll have an excellent chance to begin approaching his ceiling as a big play rush linebacker.
Minnesota hires Mike Zimmer as head coach and George Edwards as defensive coordinator
(replacing Leslie Frazier and Alan Williams)
Zimmer and Edwards both have experience with multiple schemes and fronts, so the Vikings could be the next team to show lots of flexibility in their game plan. Zimmer told reporters that he’d lean toward doing what worked for him in Cincinnati, where the Bengals had a dominant front four and only rarely blitzed in front of a variety of coverage approaches. It’s likely Zimmer, like Pettine, will be the one directing the defensive game plan early in his tenure, with Edwards taking a secondary role.
The scheme differences won’t impact the IDP values of the Minnesota defenders, however. There won’t be much change in value to the defensive line, though Sharrif Floyd could see increased value as a penetrating 3-technique if he progresses this offseason. Chad Greenway should also hold his value. What isn’t known is who will get the nod at middle linebacker for the Vikings and whether that player will play in subpackages. Though involved in the decision to cut Erin Henderson, Zimmer has yet to comment on his linebacker personnel. Both Audie Cole and Michael Mauti will be in the mix this offseason.
Detroit hires Jim Caldwell as head coach and Teryl Austin as defensive coordinator
(replacing Jim Schwartz and Gunther Cunningham)
Caldwell wants the Lions to stay in a 4-3 front. That’s not a surprise, as the Lions have invested heavily in defensive line personnel best suited to a four man philosophy. Austin isn’t known as a scheme innovator, but comes highly respected for his work with defensive backs in multiple stops. He’s an unknown as a defensive coordinator, though he did run the University of Florida’s defense in 2010.
I don’t expect much to change along the front this year. We may not see quite as many Wide 9 snaps from Ezekiel Ansah, but he wasn’t a pure speed rusher anyway. And Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley should continue to be penetrating players first. Any change in value here will likely be due to changing personnel (if any) rather than changing scheme.
Dallas demotes Monte Kiffin and hires Rod Marinelli as defensive coordinator
Marinelli has spent nearly all of his time in the NFL associated with coaches who relied heavily on Tampa-2 concepts. That’s not to say that he’ll be exclusively Tampa-2 in Dallas (Kiffin wasn’t either, for the record) but he’ll likely lean heavily toward those tenets. Expect to see pressure from the front four, relatively few blitzes and predominantly zone coverage concepts in Dallas again.
The IDP questions here are personnel based. Can the Cowboys, especially Sean Lee, DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Bruce Carter and Morris Claiborne, stay healthy and have continuity at any level of the defense? Will young talent like DeVonte Holloman and J.J. Wilcox progress into larger, more productive roles? I expect the ADP of every Dallas defender to have a healthy amount of built-in skepticism. If the talent on this defense stays healthy through the early days of camp, there could be some fast risers here as the skepticism melts away.
Cincinnati hires Paul Guenther as defensive coordinator
(replacing Mike Zimmer)
The Bengals moved quickly to promote Guenther to avoid losing both Zimmer and Guenther to Minnesota together. Guenther has said he’ll put his own stamp on the Cincinnati scheme, but expect the Bengals to remain an execution defense with a mix of blitzing and coverage based on matchup. Guenther takes over a strong depth chart, though questions remain about Michael Johnson (franchise-tagged last year, free agent), Leon Hall (Achilles) and Geno Atkins (ACL). Another question key to IDP owners: Can Rey Maualuga hold off any preseason challenges from Vincent Rey or a yet-to-be-added competitor at middle linebacker?
St. Louis hires Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator
(replacing Tim Walton)
Williams has been out of the league since the Bountygate scandal of 2011. If you’re new to IDP leagues, you may not recognize Williams or remember that he’s long been one of the most innovative, aggressive, multiple front minds in the league. Williams was once primarily an aggressive 4-3 mind, using schemes that boosted the value of his outside linebackers and safeties. In his most recent stop in New Orleans, Williams began implementing more 3-4 concepts but retained his baseline aggressive philosophy.
It’s highly unlikely that we’ll see much base 3-4 in St. Louis with Robert Quinn having grown into a centerpiece edge rusher, but it’ll be worth watching. Williams’ schemes are also a great fit for Alec Ogletree.
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be back throughout the offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our weekly IDP podcast here.
current coaches and expected base schemes