Teams spend countless hours evaluating and debating what they see on film and hear in the interview room before putting their final draft board together. Though most published mock drafts are similar, there’s lots of variability in draft grades across the league.
Teams also work hard to compile information and evaluate the health of prospects they think have the talent to make the final draft board cut. There’s just as much variability in this process. Where one team’s head physician, consultants and training staff may feel comfortable with a player’s history, another team’s medical staff may flag him too high a risk to put on a draft board at all.
Unlike the talent evaluation process, where HD video, multiple camera angles and increasing access to games on the internet has made a cottage industry of player evaluation, a player’s medical folder remains a tightly guarded piece of information.
Every team has access to a player’s medical history and gets multiple chances to exam and question athletes. I detailed the extended medical evaluation that happens at the Combine here. Teams also send medical representatives back to Indianapolis shortly before the draft for a focused re-examination of key players, especially those who may have had surgery since the combine.
But teams don’t have to share their exam findings and opinions about a player’s imaging with other teams. And it’s not unreasonable for smart and well-meaning medical staffs to have very different opinions about a player’s long-term durability.
Earlier this week, I wrote extensively about the injury history and concerns on Jadeveon Clowney and Tre’ Mason. But there are many other prospects whose draft stock may not match their talent level due to questions raised by their medical folders.
Here are a few players at risk of a medical flag. Some may be red-flagged and taken off draft boards altogether by multiple teams. Others probably won’t fall far from their current consensus draft grade.
Jadeveon Clowney (bone spurs in ankle)
Likelihood of Medical Flag: Low
A source confirmed to me last week that Clowney’s bone spurs are near his ankle joint at the top of his foot. That’s one of two common locations (the other being the heel near the plantar fascia) bone spurs form in athletes. The location of Clowney’s bone spurs cause problems when he dorsiflexes his foot – that is, when the top of his foot is flexed toward his shin. It’s a condition that can be managed with pain control, orthotics and rest. But it won’t fully resolve without surgery.
It’s a condition that could limit Clowney’s ability to explode out of his stance and change direction well. I suspect teams will have a medical note in Clowney’s file, but it’s unlikely that any team would consider this condition to be so high risk as to drop an elite talent like Clowney down their draft board.
Tre Mason (fractured scaphoid, Nov 2013)
Likelihood of Medical Flag: Moderate-High
Ian Rapoport reported recently that many teams feel Mason's wrist injury needs surgery. A source confirmed the same to me last weekend and I detailed the specifics of what Mason is facing here. Mason told a local beat writer that teams have told him he’d pass a physical exam, which suggests some teams are comfortable enough with his injury to slot him by talent alone on their draft board. I’m not sure that’s accurate and I expect Mason will be flagged by many teams this weekend.
Johnny Manziel (right shoulder separation x 2)
Likelihood of Medical Flag: Low
Manziel’s medical file is thick. He’s suffered two low-mid grade AC sprains of his throwing shoulder and a source tells me he’s had multiple other minor ligamentous injuries that are considered to be fully resolved. Those issues aren’t likely to get him a medical flag, but they may not sit well with teams who worry the 6-0, 207 pound Manziel won’t be able to withstand the pounding a NFL quarterback takes.
Dominique Easley (torn right ACL, medial meniscus, Sep 2013)
Likelihood of Medical Flag: Moderate-High
Easley tore his right ACL and meniscus six months ago. He tore his left ACL in 2011. Easley will undoubtedly have a medical flag on draft boards, but he proved fully recovered from the 2011 ACL tear and had a reassuring Pro Day last month. He’s not fully recovered yet and must still finish rehabbing his knee. But I doubt many teams will take him off their draft board altogether. Unless there’s something unexpected in his imaging studies, he has a good chance to be drafted in the first round.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (metatarsal stress fracture, surgical fixation Mar 2014)
Likelihood of Medical Flag: Moderate
Seferian-Jenkins fifth metatarsal injury was diagnosed at the combine and repaired in mid-March. All reports suggest his rehab has progressed well and he expected to be cleared to run sometime this month. Julio Jones and Ahmad Bradshaw struggled with recurrent injuries after surgery with similar conditions. That’s not to say that Seferian-Jenkins will, but it will be on the minds of teams as they prepare his final grade.
C.J. Mosley (left shoulder surgery 2010, 2011, right shoulder surgery 2012, hip dislocation 2012)
Likelihood of Medical Flag: Low-Moderate
Mosley had a labral repair of his right shoulder late in 2012 after suffering a hip dislocation the previous season. A source tells me Mosley also had a labral repair of his left shoulder earlier in his career. Mosley was healthy during his senior season and isn’t likely to see any slippage of his draft stock. There’s been an undercurrent of concern about the physical stress the Alabama program puts on its players under Nick Saban. Mosley looks like he may be the most recent example.
Chris Borland (surgery to repair torn labrum and fracture in shoulder socket)
Likelihood of Medical Flag: Moderate
There were reports last week that teams questioned the stability of Borland’s labral repair, specifically that a screw may have shifted position in his shoulder joint. If that’s accurate, an orthopedic specialist tells me Borland’s repair may be compromised and/or he could have issues with pain and stiffness in the shoulder. The nature of Borland’s labral tear also puts him at risk for early degenerative changes that could limit him as his career progresses.
Cody Latimer (metatarsal fracture, surgical fixation Jan 2014)
Likelihood of Medical Flag: Low
Latimer, like Seferian-Jenkins, had a fifth metatarsal fracture repaired surgically this offseason. Like Seferian-Jenkins, Latimer’s rehab progressed well enough to allow him to workout fully at his late March pro day. His 4.39 40 yard dash time and 39 inch vertical leap will quell most concerns. His draft stock is unlikely to be affected by the injury.
Cyrus Kouandjio (ACL/MCL repair 2011, cartilage defect)
Likelihood of Medical Flag: High
Dr. James Andrews wrote a letter to all 32 teams in March after news broke that many teams were concerned about cartilage loss in Kouandjio’s knee. There were reports that many teams gave him a grade of four on a five point scale, where five is a full red flag denoting an undraftable player. Andrews letter may have been helpful, but though many offensive lineman play with cartilage damage, bone on bone conditions are tough to explain away. Kouandjio’s stock seems to have recovered a bit, but it’s very likely that he won’t be on the draft board of quite a few teams this weekend.
Zach Mettenberger (torn ACL/MCL, Nov 2013)
Aaron Murray (torn ACL, Nov 2013)
Brandon Thomas (torn ACL, Apr 2014)
Aaron Colvin (torn ACL, Jan 2014)
Likelihood of Medical Flag: Moderate
Mettenberger and Murray both impressed at their pro days given the stage of their recoveries. Mettenberger’s better than expected health may be counteracted by a failed drug test. Thomas’ injury will drop him on draft boards, as it’s unlikely that he’ll recover in time to play a major role for a team this season.
Join Sigmund Bloom, Matt Waldman and I for a Google hangout on Thursday and Friday night as we provide live coverage and analysis of this years's NFL draft. Follow on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking injury news, commentary and analysis of this injury and others around the NFL.