THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTATIONS
Thursday nights have been tough to handicap this year. Blowouts and bizarre game scripts have been the norm, rather than the exception. Tonight isn't any easier. The Miami defense has been consistent, but none of the offensive skill position players are easy to project. Nagging and potentially limiting injuries to the three most attractive fantasy options tonight won't help either.
sammy watkins | groin | QUESTIONABLE
Watkins wasn't quite himself last week, but made it through the game without a setback. He's fully practiced this week and should be near full strength with minimal risk of aggravation. The combination of a strong Miami pass rush and Brent Grimes may lower his expectation a bit, but the groin injury is of relatively minor concern.
Fantasy expectation: Use Watkins as you normally would.
lamar miller | shoulder | probable
The Dolphins are listing Miller probable and again allowed him to practice all week. That's reassuring and suggests the team decided to limit his usage last week in anticipation of the quick turnaround to a home divisional matchup on Thursday night. AC sprains can be a painful injury to play through, however, and there's a risk Miller's touches will be capped if he's not able to run with power early.
Fantasy expectation: Last week's limited touches despite consecutive practices have me concerned about Miller's upside, but he's safe to trust as a RB2.
fred jackson | groin | questionable
Jackson's questionable tag likely means the Bills fully expect him to play but recognize he's not at full strength and want to see how he looks during pregame warmups before fully committing to him. I expect Jackson to be active and play a larger role than last week. Whether that means he sees more of the passing downs than he did last week or is back to his pre-injury workload is a tough call, however. Given the nature of his injury and the stress he put on it just four days ago, I'd lean toward expecting Jackson to be closer to last week's usage than not.
Fantasy expectation: Jackson could absolutely see 15 touches this week, but I'd be nervous trusting him as more than a flex option until he proves otherwise.
915 ET: Jackson's injury looked like a mid grade strain from the start. Those commonly require four weeks of recovery and reconditioning. My initial expectation was that tonight's game would be an optimistic return date for him. But he returned to play in just three weeks, after three limited practices. That may have been pushing the limits of sanity, even for a tough player like Jackson.
Decent chance that Bills RB Fred Jackson sits tonight's game against the Dolphins out. Much more up in the air than last week.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) November 13, 2014
Groin injuries are like kryptonite for running backs, even Superman Fred Jackson. This is Breer's way of telling us Jackson is doubtful to play tonight and will likely be inactive. Hopefully, it's too quick of a turnaround -- something that should be no surprise to the team, really -- and not a sign Jackson has aggravated his injury. Whether Jackson is active tonight or not, he's no longer a viable fantasy option for Week 11.
I'm watching the status of Martellus Bennett, Devin Hester, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Andrew Hawkins and a handful of others. Should any fall into a game time decision outlook, I'll have more on those situations on Sunday morning.
arian foster | groin | dnp
You should not be shocked by this. Yes, there were mulitple reports Foster's injury was less worrisome than it originally looked and he was on track to play coming out of the bye week. But Foster has never been quick to recover from muscle strains, particularly aggravated low grade strains. Wednesday's DNP may eventually prove to be a planned day of rest and rehab, but it's absolutely evidence Foster isn't at full strength. Plan on Foster being a game time decision and hope his practice participation and late week media interviews tell us a more optimistic story than the one we're now getting.
brandon marshall | ankle | dnp
No surprise here either. Marshall has consistently said he'll play through any soreness he may have this weekend. And I believe him. But I also think Marshall has more than a low grade low ankle sprain and will likely not practice this week. He's already played -- sometimes effectively -- through injuries that kept him from taking any practice reps and maintaining his football conditioning. Consider this another PSA that Marshall's injury is being underreported and plan on him being called a game time decision after Friday's practice.
gio bernard | hip | dnp
Albert Breer knows something about Bernard and isn't dishing. Last Thursday, he hinted in a tweet Bernard might "miss more time." Yesterday, after Bernard didn't practice, Breer was the first one to tweet what everyone was thinking -- Bernard is doubtful to play this week. We're not going to get any meaningful information from Cincinnati on this until after Bernard returns. He's reportedly doing conditioning work on a side field now. If he follows the same Marvin Jones, A.J. Green pattern, that means he'll be back to practice and planning to play next week. Without knowing the specifics of his injury, it's hard to guess how likely he'll have no setbacks during conditioning. With luck, someone will break some meaningful news before this time next week.
rashad jennings | knee | limited
ryan mathews | knee | full
montee ball | groin | full
All three of these running backs will return this week and all look in condition for a sizable role if the team chooses. There have been multiple positive reports on Jennings and he's had two full weeks of reconditioning without a setback. If he's back to a full practice at any point this week, he may see his pre-injury workload immediately. Local media is reporting Mathews is in line to start this week, which means he could see 15+ touches if the game script goes as expected versus Oakland. And Ball's conditioning sounds better than it's been since before his appendectomy. C.J. Anderson is probably the primary committee back this week, but Ball is healthy enough to see 5-10 touches.
mark ingram | shoulder | limited
pierre thomas | rib / shoulder | DNP
khiry robinson | arm | dnp
The Saints are also tight-lipped with injury information. The early week DNPs are not a good sign for either Thomas or Robinson. "Forearm" injuries requiring multiple weeks of recovery, as Robinson's has, suggest an injury that could stretch beyond four weeks. And Thomas is still not practicing three weeks after his initial 2-3 week recovery timetable. Ingram's injury is of little concern and, barring a surprise increase in practice participation from Thomas or Robinson, Ingram will again carry a full load this week.
reggie bush | ankle | dnp
Bush needed an extra week to recover after his last aggravation of this injury. I don't see any reason to expect differently this time. I think he's trying to play through a high ankle sprain. If he sits this week, he might not play in Week 12 either.
Follow on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking injury news, updates and analysis. Check back Sunday morning for my expectations on all of this week's game-time injury decisions.
