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NOTE: This column is a living document and will be updated throughout the morning. Major changes to the content will be in red. Check back often for additions as gameday inactives are announced and lineup / depth chart changes are reported. I'll also be retweeting those reports with quick bits of analysis, so make sure you're following @JeneBramel and checking my timeline on Twitter.
We have a long list of skill position players listed as probable to play this week. None of them are game time decisions and I don't expect any of them to be a surprise inactive after pregame warmups. But it feels like there are two distinct groups here.
One group includes those with injuries unlikely to affect their play and who should be trusted to perform to their usual expectation. That means different things for different talent levels, of course, but I think fantasy owners can debate the value of T.Y. Hilton (ankle), Michael Crabtree (quad), Keenan Allen (groin), Frank Gore (back), Antonio Gates (hamstring), Toby Gerhart (ankle), Joique Bell (knee), and Chris Johnson (ankle) without concern for their current injuries.
The second group includes players with injuries that shouldn't affect their fantasy value much, but are prompting more concern from their fantasy owners than a probable player ordinarily would. I'll mix them in with this week's group of questionables and game-time decisions.
jamaal charles | ankle | probable
Charles was very close to playing last week. He had no setbacks during a full week of limited practice and is probable to play. Andy Reid said Charles had a mild high ankle sprain. Ian Rapoport reported it was more of a bruise after Charles' MRI showed no signficant structural damage. Whatever the specifics of the injury, all indications are Charles is good to go today.
It's hard to handicap the risk Charles suffers an aggravation today and it's hard to handicap the odds of Knile Davis seeing more snaps than he had before Charles was injured. And it's always hard to assume rational coaching from Reid.
Fantasy expectation: There's always some risk when putting an injured player in your lineup for Monday Night Football but I think it'll take a significant setback in pregame warmups for Charles to be inactive. Even if Davis sees an extra 5-8 carries, Charles should be in line for all passing down duty, which could be extensive against New England. I think it's safe to consider Charles a RB1 this week.
arian foster | hamstring | questionable
Like last week, Foster was available for limited workouts on all three practice days. Bill O'Brien has said Foster will be a game-time decision since Wednesday's press conference and has yet to change his tune. Foster said on Monday he'd not play until he was ready. It's difficult to know what that means with Foster, who doesn't heal muscle strains quickly and frequently suffers aggravations as he tries to return.
I think Foster is closer to probable than doubtful, but the Texans have an early game today, so it's not worth much speculation on whether Foster will be available. What's important is how much Foster can do if he's active. That's also an open question, but I believe the Texans will hope to lean heavily on Foster is he's healthy enough to play. We may see Alfred Blue more than we did in the first two weeks of the season, but Foster can reasonably be expected to see 15+ touches if he goes.
Fantasy expectation: Putting Foster in your lineup today will be like playing with fire. But two weeks of consecutive limited practices, a decent home matchup, the lack of serious competition on the depth chart and the Texans' heavy usage of Foster in the first two weeks all suggest enough reward to take the risk if he's active. Unless you have a clear top 15 option with a double digit floor, take the gamble if Foster is active.
840 ET: Ian Rapoport this morning:
#Texans RB Arian Foster is expected to play today, per sources. Had battled a hamstring injury, should return after missing just one game.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 28, 2014
1055 ET: This from John McClain...
Foster would't be active if he wasn't 100 percent. That means he'll get a full workload. He had 55 carries and 241 yards in frist 2 games.
— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) September 28, 2014
I think this is a very reasonable expectation, as I wrote before the updates began rolling in. Foster isn't a safe RB1, but he's worth the risk.
calvin johnson | ankle | questionable
Johnson's limited practice schedule this week was not just veteran rest. The Lions were aggressively treating Johnson's ankle with the hope he'd be able to practice on Friday, come in Saturday morning without any major increase in swelling or pain, and then be ready to go on Sunday. So far, Johnson has met those expectations.
Johnson told reporters he wasn't concerned about the ankle on Wednesday and he's been very productive with limited practice in the past. Barring a pregame surprise, expect Johnson to be on the active roster and see his usual number of targets.
Fantasy expectation: Use Johnson as you normally would this week.
800 ET: Adam Schefter is reporting Johnson will play today.
Lions WR Calvin Johnson, listed as questionable for today's game vs. the Jets with an ankle injury, will be active.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 28, 2014
brandon marshall | ankle | questionable
I've been asked a few times over the past two weeks whether Marshall is dealing with a high ankle sprain and possibly following the same disappointing path Roddy White did last year. I've looked at the mechanism of Marshall's Week 2 injury and Week 3 aggravation and I don't believe it's clear enough to determine the type or severity of the sprain.
But it's odd for Marshall to miss as much practice as he has, be said to be 75% likely to miss the first game following the injury and miss snaps two weeks later after a play without an obviously dramatic mechanism of re-injury. That smells of a high ankle sprain, albeit a mild one.
I don't think Marshall is at risk of being deactivated today but there is concern for another aggravation. It's also worrisome that Marshall's target count has gone from 12 to 8 to 6 over the first three weeks of the season. However, Marshall's usage should remain stable in high leverage situations, as evidenced by his five redzone targets (three touchdowns and a near miss) over the past two games despite his limitations.
Fantasy expectation: Marshall's floor continues to be much lower than usual, due to his likely decrease in targets and risk of in-game setbacks. Call him a boom-bust WR2, but don't bench him unless you have another clear top 15-20 fantasy option this week.
dez bryant | shoulder | probable
Bryant has been limited for multiple weeks with what's likely an AC sprain. Though Bryant has left the field at times, there's been no indication that he's too limited to play and see a high number of targets.
Fantasy expectation: While the health of both Bryant and Tony Romo are reasons for some concern, Bryant has his usual high ceiling and a strong matchup at home against the Saints.
roddy white | hamstring | probable
White established his own criteria for fantasy production -- get in a full Friday practice and tell reporters he's good to go. He's done both this week and, although he's not the high floor option he once was, he's in line for a solid number of targets today.
Fantasy expectation: Use White as you normally would.
doug martin | knee | probable
Martin took a week longer to recover from a knee contusion. He had a full week of practice and is expected to start ahead of Bobby Rainey and see the majority of the Tampa Bay rushing workload today. The full week of practice implies a low risk of aggravation for Martin. The bigger concern is whether Martin can be an effective player when healthy. That concern is heightened further by the road matchup in Pittsburgh.
Fantasy expectation: Martin is healthy. Base your expectation on what you think of Martin's talent and opportunity. This week, I don't see more than a mid-RB2 ceiling with a mid-flex floor.
vernon davis | anke / knee | questionable
Davis gave us clear details on his ankle injury on Friday, calling it a deltoid ligament sprain and admitting the Niners' medical staff gave him a 2-3 week return expectation at the time of his diagnosis. A deltoid sprain isn't the same as a classic low ankle sprain and it's not another term for a high ankle sprain. The deltoid ligament is the major ligament on the inside of the ankle and can be as troublesome to heal as the area injured in a high ankle sprain. Davis told reporters he's better than last week, but still considered himself a game-time decision.
Fantasy expectation: The Niners have a late afternoon game and there's a real chance Davis will be inactive. It's also clear Davis isn't close to full health despite much improvement this week. I'd avoid Davis today unless you have no other viable options.
vincent jackson | wrist | probable
I'm not certain where in the wrist Jackson's fracture may be. The injury has been described as a "hairline" fracture, but no specific location has been given. He'll be wearing a brace for the next few weeks. Without more detail, it's difficult to handicap the risk of worsening the injury.
On the field, Mike Glennon may be a better quarterback for Jackson's skill set. So, while the injury and brace aren't an ideal situation for a wide receiver, the volume and type of targets Jackson should see with Glennon under center should counteract the injury concern some.
Fantasy expectation: Jackson fully practiced all week and was able to test multiple types of braces to see what was most comfortable and least intrusive. There a multiple reasons to worry about Jackson's floor, but his upside leaves him in the WR2 tier this week.
eric decker | hamstring | questionable
Decker is expected to play on Sunday, but Rex Ryan openly told reporters Decker would be available only in limited packages. Unlike players like Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Brandon Marshall, Decker's ceiling on limited usage isn't high enough to take the risk of an early aggravation.
Fantasy expectation: Decker is a boom-bust WR3/flex play. Use him only if you've no other available options.
deangelo williams | quad | probable
Williams had a full week of practice without setbacks. Jonathan Stewart is listed questionable but doesn't have a realistic chance to play and contribute. The road matchup in Baltimore isn't favorable, however, and there's always a risk of an in-game aggravation.
Fantasy expectation: Consider Williams a low ceiling RB2 today.
maurice jones-drew | hand | probable
Jones-Drew was back to full practices this week but will not start today. That makes usage a much bigger concern than injury for Jones-Drew today. Darren McFadden will have to play poorly for Jones-Drew to see more than 10-12 touches.
Fantasy expectation: Jones-Drew is a flex only play today.
ladarius green | hamstring | questionable
Green strained his hamstring in practice on Thursday and didn't practice on Sunday. Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates have played though mid-week muscle strains already this year, but Green is in danger of missing out on a strong matchup against Jacksonville.
Fantasy expectation: Green may be closer to doubtful than questionable. But it's been hard to read the Chargers this year. And this situation is unique in that the Chargers have so many injured players one may be active but not expected to see any snaps. It's possible that player could be Green this week. The matchup is enticing enough to risk Green in lineups, but he's extremely risky. He has a late afternoon start, however, so make sure you've got a hedge available.
Best of luck in your fantasy games this weekend. I'll be back on Monday morning to review all the Week 4 injuries in the Injury Rounds column. Follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking news and analysis during the games today.
