NOTE: This column is a living document and will be updated throughout the morning. Major changes to the content will be in red. Check back often for additions as gameday inactives are announced and lineup / depth chart changes are reported. I'll also be retweeting those reports with quick bits of analysis, so make sure you're following @JeneBramel and checking my timeline on Twitter.
Despite multiple high definition video angles showing us clearer injury mechanisms and the number of strong local and national media members reporting more sophisticated injury information than ever, it can still be difficult to project how injured players will perform on Sunday.
Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery reinforced that lesson last week.
I'm not whining here. But I'm not apologizing either.
I'm lucky enough to have a few trustworthy sources and I'm very grateful to many docs, athletic trainers and physical therapists who help me work through the subtleties of injuries and recovery. In the end, however, I'm working with incomplete information and dealing in probability.
I'm going to get some Sunday AM calls wrong. I'll own it when I do and use those occurrences to inform and improve my work for the future.
There's another long list of concerns for Week 3. And I get to lead with my read of the tea leaves on Jamaal Charles and A.J. Green. Once more into the breach, my friends...
jamaal charles | ankle | questionable
Let's clear up a general misconception first. Every soft tissue injury falls on a graded continuum of severity. (Use that as your fantasy team name next year.) Some low grade injuries are easier to play through than others. A high ankle sprain -- which is an injury to the major ligament that stabilizes the two lower leg bones near the ankle and isn't really an ankle injury at all -- is one of those. Some players have a higher tolerance for pain than others. Some players heal more quickly than others.
I believe Charles has a high ankle sprain. What I was able to see of his injury mechanism suggested that and I wrote as much early on Monday. Andy Reid told reporters that Charles had a high ankle sprain, but hinted it was of low severity. An injury of this type has a wide range of expectation. Wide as in 0-4 weeks. That's not helpful, I know.
But it also should not have been shock and awe to see Charles on the practice field this week. It doesn't mean that he doesn't have a high ankle sprain. And while the following is promising...
If #Chiefs Jamaal Charles still has a high ankle sprain, I wish I had one, too, he looks pretty good to me.
— Randy Covitz (@randycovitz) September 19, 2014
...it should not be taken as clear evidence that Charles is close to 100% for today's game.
Even the quickest and most successful recoveries from a high ankle sprain -- the two I often reference are Matt Forte (W2 2012, denied by Bears, but obvious on video) and Andre Johnson (W3 2010) -- have come after a week of rest. Many other players have struggled through weeks of missed snaps, missed series and a drop in production that last for weeks. C.J. Spiller and Roddy White in 2013 are still fresh in everyone's mind.
Charles returned to practice on consecutive days this week. Beat writers who have watched him daily for years are impressed with how he's looked in practice. But we're still less than a week from the original injury. Charles has yet to test his ankle at speed, while cutting, with tackling defenders and falling offensive linemen putting his ankle through the ringer. And the Chiefs watched Knile Davis perform very well against the Broncos last week.
So, while I'm impressed with Charles' progress, I'm not ready to believe he'll be getting 20 effective touches today.
Fantasy expectation: The Chiefs play a late afternoon game today. That's not helping matters. I think Charles will be active today. There's little reason for the Chiefs to allow him to practice and take first team reps on Friday only to be cautious on Sunday. But it's foolish to think Charles will carry the load today without any in-game tweaks and soreness or Knile Davis rotating in heavily. I wouldn't risk Charles as more than a boom-bust RB2/flex play today, if at all. If you sit him and he has a great game, smile at the low probability outcome and the knowledge that Charles looks likely to avoid the fate that befell Spiller last year.
845 ET: The first update on Charles this morning comes from Ian Rapoport:
As for #Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles, he’s a game-time decision. It’s more of a bruise than a high-ankle sprain, though. Gives him a real chance
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 21, 2014
That doesn't signficantly change my outlook today, but more information is always helpful.
a.j. green | toe | probable
Green is going to play today. Like Charles, how many snaps he will play and how effective he will be is an open question.
On Wednesday, Green told the media his big toe is injured and that it didn't feel right in warmups after a week of very light practice. This week, Green increased his participation in practice through Friday's full workout. In interviews, he sounded motivated by those who suggested he should sit this week and rest through Cincinnati's Week 4 bye.
It's likely the medical staff improved upon whatever orthotic Green was wearing last week. And you can bet the offensive gameplan will be sensitive to the type of routes and blocking schemes most likely to aggravate Green's injury.
However, the bottom line despite all the relative positives is this: There's no guarantee Green will make it through today's game without a setback. And you can easily write a game script in which the Bengals get an early lead on the Titans and move to a very run heavy offense.
Fantasy expectation: Green is safe to use in lineups today. But the risk-reward equation drops him into the WR2 tier for me today. If you've got a high floor WR2 option to use in his place, it's a very reasonable consideration.
jordan cameron | shoulder | questionable
Cameron was limited all week, but Mike Pettine's Friday comments to the press made it sound like Cameron did much more on Friday than any day in the past two weeks. Much will depend on how Cameron's shoulder responds from Friday night through Saturday. We should get more information on Cameron in advance of inactives today.
Pain management and added padding over his shoulder should limit Cameron's pain and give him a good chance to get through the game if he's active. There will be a risk of an aggravation -- no surprise there, it's what happened in Week 1 -- but it's a difficult risk to quantify.
Fantasy expectation: The TE tiers have sorted themselves out over the first two weeks. If you don't have an elite tight end, Cameron is startable if he's active. I'd lean toward slotting him in the bottom of the Olsen/Gates/Ertz/Bennett tier. It's a more difficult call among Rudolph/Walker/Paul/Donnell.
930 ET: Jason La Canfora tweets that Cameron will try to go this morning.
Jordan Cameron is managing the discomfort in his shoulder. Barring a setback in warmups the expectation is he plays today vs. Ravens
— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) September 21, 2014
More to come when inactives released.
1130 ET: Cameron tested his shoulder in warmups and is active today.
desean jackson | shoulder | questionable
Jackson wants to play against his former team badly. He sounded optimistic early in the week after imaging studies showed no high grade injury to his AC joint. But it's a painful injury to play through and Jackson has reportedly struggled with range of motion and pain late in the week. Washington plays an early afternoon game, so we'll know Jackson's roster status.
Jackson is at risk of an in-game aggravation, especially since his recovery is still in question. It's hard to pin down Jackson's value in a healthy week given his wide range of target expectation.
Fantasy expectation: Jackson is a boom-bust option in most weeks anyway. The floor is slightly lower this week, as is the ceiling. Call him a boom-bust WR3 if active.
1130 ET: Jackson did not participate in pregame warmups but is active today. Adam Caplan, who was based in Philadelphia before going national, tweeted that he's not sure how long Jackson will be able to go. Boom-bust WR3 at best today.
alshon jeffery | hamstring | questionable
brandon marshall | ankle | questionable
Marshall and Jeffery have been limited again all week, but that's more practice time than last week's lead-up to Sunday night's game. Thankfully, both seemed to have danced with the injury aggravation deities and survived unscathed. Neither will be 100% yet this week, but both proved they can be productive at 85-90% last week.
Fantasy expectation: I'd still bet on Jeffery's floor as more likely than his ceiling for this week, but I'd be more likely to consider him as a WR3 than I was this time last week. I think Marshall may not yet be ready for his usual number of targets, but he's safe to use in lineups today.
arian foster | hamstring | questionable
Foster has been limited all week with a hamstring injury. That's a common theme in recent seasons. It usually does not inspire confidence. But the consensus this week is one of optimism. Bill O'Brien told reporters the team is trying to manage Foster's reps and didn't sound concerned. The Texans don't have a viable backup on the roster. Foster played through the fourth quarter and looked strong in his last series last week.
Fantasy expectation: Foster is high on the list of players we know are at high risk of a setback when trying to play through a hamstring injury. Fold that into your consideration today, but I think it's safe to risk Foster -- in this matchup, with this upside -- as your RB1 this week.
845 ET: As it turns out, I should have stuck with the usual lack of confidence inspired by a hamstring injury with Foster.
#Texans RB Arian Foster (hamstring) is viewed as a longshot to play today vs. #Giants, sources says. Could mean a lot of Alfred Blue & co
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 21, 2014
Stay tuned for more here, but this is more than enough to delete Foster from lineups this morning.
1130 ET: Despite sprinting in the end zone without an obvious hitch, the Texans have deactivated Foster today.
dez bryant | shoulder | questionable
Bryant told reporters Friday that he would play today. "A little bit sore," Bryant said. "But nothing that's going to keep me out." Although it's not been officially reported as such, Bryant very likely has a low grade AC sprain. Back-to-back limited practices are reassuring here.
Fantasy expectation: Use Bryant as you normally would this week.
keenan allen | groin | questionable
Allen was added to the injury report with a groin strain on Thursday but was back out on the field "in full gear" on Friday. There hasn't been any other news of note on Allen this week. His return to Friday practice is enough for me to consider him on the probable side of questionable, but not enough to feel comfortable handicapping the chances he'll play a full complement of snaps.
Fantasy expectation: Allen remains in the WR2 tiers this week, but his floor is a little lower than usual.
1100 ET: As we approach inactives, players are almost always on the field checking out injuries and talking to trainers to make a decision on they're playing status. Allen hasn't been seen yet.
I don't expect to see him today.
1130 ET: Keenan Allen is active today. I'm nervous about his effectiveness, but he's worth considering as a boom-bust WR3.
1225 ET: More news on Allen.
Keenan Allen looks quick and decisive running routes during pre-game. Doesn't appear bothered by groin injury.
— Eric Williams (@eric_d_williams) September 21, 2014
May be that there was so little concern with groin strain he didn't need to warm up...
eric decker | hamstring | questionable
Decker aggravated a hamstring injury and only made it through a limited Sunday practice. He's a game-time decision that could go either way after warmups on Monday night.
Fantasy expectation: I don't see enough upside in Decker or a viable hedge to recommend holding a lineup slot for him on Monday night.
deangelo williams | thigh | questionable
Williams did not practice until Friday, then was limited. On Saturday, the Panthers elevated a running back from their practice squad. That's raises a strong suspicion that Williams did not respond well to the limited Friday workout.
Fantasy expecation: There's a good chance Williams will be inactive today. If not, Jonathan Stewart has looked good and will assuredly be a bigger part of the gameplan than a gimpy Williams. Avoid Williams today.
vernon davis | ankle/knee | questionable
Davis was on crutches Wednesday, limping through the locker room on Thursday and limped through an individual workout on Friday. None of that is promising for Davis being active today. Though recovery from a bone bruise may progress differently than a soft tissue injury, the amount of progress made in four days doesn't suggest much hope that the next 36 hours will allow enough time for Davis to get ready for today's game.
Fantasy expectation: I don't expect Davis to play today. If he does, his floor will be much lower than usual. Avoid Davis today.
715 ET Ian Rapoport tweeted this morning Davis is doubtful to play.
shane vereen | shoulder | questionable
Vereen spoke with reporters on Friday, according to Mike Reiss, but I haven't found any record of what he said. Earning a questionable tag on Bill Belichick's injury report doesn't mean much, nor does managing only limited practices this week. The general tone of those writing about the team implies Vereen will play and I have nothing to make a strong argument otherwise. But these are the Belichick led Patriots, so any outcome is fair game.
Fantasy expectation: The Raiders have few healthy linebackers, inexperienced corners and slow safeties. You can write a game script in which Brady opens up the offense and Vereen sees lots of targets. More likely, I see the Patriots leaning heavily on the run, getting ahead early and pounding Stevan Ridley. Vereen is a boom-bust RB2 and in PPR leagues only.
bernard pierce | thigh | questionable
Pierce was added to the injury report on Thursday, then returned to a limited practice Friday. Like the Panthers, the Ravens elevated a practice squad running back on Saturday, raising questions about Pierce's availability.
Fantasy expectation: If Pierce is active, I'd avoid him unless you're in desperate need of a flex play. He's been effective in volume situations only -- 2.9 ypc in 2013, 4.0 ypc in 2014 -- and will need 15+ touches to have a reasonable RB2 floor. That's very unlikely to happen today.
1015 ET: No surprise here, but Pierce won't be active today.
Not looking good for #Ravens RB Bernard Pierce. Team source just told me "95% he doesn't play" today vs #Browns
— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) September 21, 2014
Also of note...Maurice Jones-Drew (questionable) is still healing and unlikely to see more than a rotational role today. He's a flex play at best. ...Cecil Shorts (hamsting) has steadily increased his practice participation over the past two weeks and is ready to return. He's a low ceiling WR3 for now. ... Carson Palmer (shoulder) still has yet to throw much and isn't likely to play. I still think Week 5 is a 50-50 prop for him.
715 ET Ian Rapoport tweeted this morning Jones-Drew is not expected to play today.
Best of luck in your fantasy games this weekend. I'll be back on Monday morning to review all the Week 3 injuries in the Injury Rounds column. Follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking news and analysis during the games today.
