NOTE: This column is a living document and will be updated throughout the morning. Major changes to the content will be in red. Check back often for additions as gameday inactives are announced and lineup / depth chart changes are reported. I'll also be retweeting those reports with quick bits of analysis, so make sure you're following me at (@JeneBramel) and checking my timeline on Twitter on Sunday mornings.
In Wednesday's column and on Thursday night's live podcast, I wrote/said that while it was too early to put a fine point on the expectation for players like Julio Jones, C.J. Anderson, Jamaal Charles (and now Eddie Lacy), I'd do so on Sunday morning.
Since Wednesday, the Anderson and Charles situations have worked themselves out happily. Both are probable and, though there's always a risk of an in-game aggravation, both have a great chance to see close to their usual workload. I don't believe the same can be said for Jones and Lacy. And I'm ready to stick my neck out on both.
Before we get to the game time decisions and unknowns -- and that includes a handful of players who have been listed probable -- a quick line of reassurance on a few stud skill position players listed probable I'm not worried much about. As with Charles and Anderson, I believe Arian Foster, Demaryius Thomas, Marshawn Lynch, Isaiah Crowell and Jonathan Stewart can be used in lineups without concern for their injuries today.
Let's start this week's expectations with Julio Jones, whose situation is a lot easier to manage than the last 48 hours of debate on Twitter and the message boards would have you believe.
julio jones | hip | questionable
Jones was unable to return in the critical fourth quarter of a game he was absolutely dominating -- before his adrenaline wore off and before the cascade of more swelling and more pain set in. That was five days ago. Since then, Jones hasn't practiced. Various reports have suggested "he can't run," "he's likely to be a decoy at best," "his status is up to the doctors," and "he was able to do some conditioning work." There's not an optimistic note to be found there.
Oh, Mike Smith, has been optimistic. But you can ignore that entirely. Smith is always optimistic. It's rarely proven true -- from Roddy White to Stephen Jackson to now Julio Jones.
Ed Werder said Jones was improving and would be evaluated again during pregame warmups. Both parts of that statement are accurate. Jones undoubtedly is improving. But does that mean Jones has gone from not able to run to being able to lightly jog or does that mean he's close to full speed. It's almost certainly the former. And I don't doubt Jones will be evaluated during pregame warmups. But don't pay any attention to reports or videos of Jones running routes this morning. Those don't happen at full speed or in full pads and you can't tell how a player feels just be observing them.
Unless we get something unusually specific (i.e. Torrey Smith's unexpected heavy wrap, inability to cut, and limping back to the trainers last week), we won't hear the most critical piece of information -- i.e. what Jones says to the trainers and medical staff after warming up.
You can see where I'm headed here. If he's active, I'd give Jones no more than a 10-20% chance to have a statistical performance equal to his usual WR1 expectation. And I think there's a near zero chance he'll approach anything close to his elite ceiling (125+ yards, multiple touchdowns). I don't think the Falcons are hustling the Steelers here. Even if he's active, I'll be shocked if Jones is anywhere near full strength today.
Fantasy expectation: If Jones is active, the matchup is tremendous and I'll understand if you simply cannot bench him after last week's explosion. But I haven't yet been presented with a Jones v X question where I'm saying, "Yes, Jones is a clearly better play." In fact, I'm hoping the Falcons put Jones on the inactive list so no one feels obligated to use him. If he is active, I'd avoid him today and live with the consequences if he has a strong week.
730 ET: I don't believe my feeling on Jones will change today, but I'll add any relevant tweets here to provide context for your decision.
Julio Jones (hip) remains a GameDay decision. He ran on Saturday, per sources, and he'll test it with trainers today to see if he can play.
— Jeff Darlington (@JeffDarlington) December 14, 2014
Julio Jones ran on side Saturday and Falcons will test him at stadium again today. Decision will be made about two hours before kickoff.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 14, 2014
Patience with Julio Jones, as difficult as it might be. Team stressing this is a very legitimate gametime decision. He'll test hip pregame.
— Jeff Darlington (@JeffDarlington) December 14, 2014
Source with knowledge of the situation tells me Julio Jones (hip) is out.
— vaughn mcclure (@vxmcclure23) December 14, 2014
1000 ET: Question may be moot here soon as multiple sources are reporting Julio is likely to be inactive today.
1120 ET: Jones will be inactive today. Ed Werder reporting the injury is a labral tear. Much more on that and Jones' ability to play effectively in Week 16 in tomorrow's column.
eddie lacy | hip | probable
Lacy was in too much pain to practice much this week and wouldn't confirm to reporters he felt healthy enough to play. He was able to do enough of Friday to earn a probable tag. Local writers expect Lacy to lose more carries to James Starks in rotation today and the practice participation this week supports that expectation. It's possible Lacy warms up quickly and plays well enough to see his usual workload. It's also possible Starks is effective early and the Packers avoid pushing Lacy, especially if Lacy has pain.
Fantasy expectation: I wouldn't bench Lacy for an option outside the top 25. Call him a low floor RB2 with less than usual upside.
roddy white | ankle | probable
The Roddy Rule states White needs to have a full Friday practice before you can consider him near full strength and fantasy ready. That's exactly what happened this week. With Julio Jones' status in question and the Falcons facing a very strong matchup against Pittsburgh, the timing of White's recovery is perfect.
Fantasy expectation: You can trust White in your lineup this week.
ryan mathews | ankle | questionable
After reviewing the video of Mathews injury on Wednesday, I believe Mathews has a high ankle sprain. Still in a protective boot on Thursday and unable to practice all week, I think Mathews is on the doubtful side of questionable.
Fantasy expectation: If Mathews is active, he'll be at high risk of an in-game aggravation and it's very unlikely he'll see his usual workload. Avoid him today.
julius thomas | ankle | PROBABLE
Earlier in the week, I wrote that Thomas would have to put in a full Friday practice for me to be comfortable recommending him in fantasy lineups today. Well, he did fully practice Friday and I'm now comfortable believing the optimistic statements we've heard from Thomas and John Fox. I don't see any reason to think Thomas won't be active today and, unlike last week, I believe he'll play if he's active.
The rub here is usage. Thomas may not see as many snaps and routes as before his injury if C.J. Anderson is running the ball well. He may not see the red zone targets he saw pre-injury either.
Fantasy expectation: If Thomas is active, he is safe to put in lineups today. And while his floor is lower than it was two months ago due to the success of Denver's run offense, his ceiling is unchanged.
andre johnson | concussion | questionable
I've yet to see a report saying Johnson has been cleared to play today. We'll undoubtedly hear one way or the other sometime this morning, and will have the benefit of seeing the inactive list for Houston before the early games.
Fantasy expectation: If Johnson is active, he can be used in lineups as you normally would.
730 ET: Ian Rapoport is reporting this morning Johnson is not expected to be active today.
desean jackson | shin | questionable
torrey smith | knee | probable
percy harvin | ankle | questionable
Jackson reportedly has a 50-50 chance to play, with the latest report saying the team was "hopeful" he'd be able to go. That doesn't sound promising to me and I'd lean toward Jackson having a limited rotational role if he's active. Washington has an early afternoon game, so Jackson's active/inactive status will be known before lineups are due.
It's a great sign Smith was able to return to a full Friday practice and the probable tag is reassuring. I think Smith may be dealing with a low grade ligament sprain and contusion, however, and he'll need to be monitored closely for any setbacks during pregame warmups again today.
Harvin says he's ready to play without limitation. It's hard to trust that declaration after the high level of concern those around Harvin had about this injury earlier in the week and Harvin's inability to do more than a limited Friday practice. I tentatively expect Harvin to be active, but there's no guarantee here.
Fantasy expectation: All three players, if active, are boom-bust WR3 today.
730 ET: Ian Rapoport has a source telling him Percy Harvin will play today and that DeSean Jackson is expected to return.
Even though #Ravens WR Torrey Smith is active, I suspect he'll be on a snap count. He hasn't been full go during all of pre-game warmups.
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 14, 2014
Best of luck in your fantasy games this weekend. I'll be back on Monday morning to review all the Week 16 injuries in the Injury Rounds column. Follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking news and analysis during the games today.