NOTE: This column is a living document and will be updated throughout the morning. Major changes to the content will be in red. Check back often for additions as gameday inactives are announced and lineup / depth chart changes are reported. I'll also be retweeting those reports with quick bits of analysis, so make sure you're following @JeneBramel and checking my timeline on Twitter.
I fully expect Mark Ingram (questionable - shoulder), Vincent Jackson (questionable - knee) and Reggie Bush (probable - ankle) to play today. Ingram told reporters his shoudler injury wasn't serious and he's fine to play today. Bush won't see his pre-injury usage, so be careful before trusting him as more than a flex today. Jackson's usage has been inconsistent; he remains in the boom-bust WR3 tier.
Before we work through this week's list of game time decisions and unclear situations, however, let's take a quick look at three high-profile players recovering from concerning injuries who are locks to play today.
aaron rodgers | hamstring | probable
When we last saw Rodgers on the field two weeks ago, he was hobbled by a hamstring strain. Rodgers was uncomfortable in the pocket, less accurate throwing on the move and unwilling to leave the pocket to scramble for yards. Fortunately, Rodgers has fully participated in all practices this week, official and unofficial, and there's very little concern he'll be limited today. Though there's always a risk of aggravating a muscle strain in his first week back, Rodgers' consecutive practices this week are as good a sign as we could get.
Fantasy expectation: Start Rodgers as you normally would.
calvin johnson | ankle | probable
Johnson has had five weeks of rehab and recovery since his last live action. He was close to returning before the Lions' Week 9 bye but the team elected to rest him an additional two weeks. After three consecutive full practices this week, Johnson will be as healthy as he's been in two months. The extra two weeks of rest will greatly minimize his risk of aggravation.
Fantasy expectation: Often, we'll see a player returning from a multi-week injury eased back into a team's game plan. That won't be the case with Johnson, who will have an excellent chance to see double digit targets immediately. Use Johnson as you normally would.
TONY ROMO | BACK | probABLE
I'm surprised Romo is listed probable -- I would've bet he'd be listed questionable regardless of his status -- but I'm not surprised he's ready to play. His injury will still be painful, he'll still need additional padding to protect his back, and he may still take a pain-killing injection. And there will still be a risk of Romo leaving the game if he takes another direct hit to his lower back. But the probable tag is a strong sign Romo is feeling better and has a good chance to play to his usual effectiveness.
Fantasy expectation: There's some risk with Romo today, but the extra week of recovery and the matchup against the Jacksonville secondary is enough to consider him a low end QB1 today.
sammy watkins | groin | questionable
Watkins left practice midweek with what he later called a "nagging" groin injury. Players aren't always forthcoming about their injuries -- Watkins himself said he didn't know the results of his MRI and was "clueless" about his status -- but the word "nagging" is key here. Although multiple national media members reported the injury was of little concern on Wednesday evening, the need for an MRI suggested otherwise.
The need for a mid-week MRI on a nagging injury screams aggravation to me. And an aggravated muscle strain is often worse than the initial injury. By definition, that makes this injury very possibly more than a minor tweak. The inability for Watkins to practice on Thursday isn't a major concern. But his missed Friday practice and Doug Marrone's comment on Friday that he's waiting for the okay from the medical staff on Watkins is not a good sign for his availabilty this weekend.
Fantasy expectation: Watkins may be active today, but it's hard to believe he'll be effective or see his usual usage. If you've got other top 20 options today, use them.
730 AM: Ian Rapoport reports early this morning the Bills are optimistic they'll have Watkins today.
Despite little work this week, #Bills are optimistic they'll have Fred Jackson (groin) & Sammy Watkins (groin) today, per @AlbertBreer & me
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 9, 2014
I still believe Watkins will be limited if he plays. More on this as it develops this morning...
lamar miller | shoulder | questionable
Miller said he had a stinger after last week's game and told reporters he could've returned to the game if needed. He then had an MRI on Monday, which is not standard procedure for a stinger. Especially one that had resolved quickly enough that he could have returned to play. The injury was later reported to be an AC sprain, although it's not been confirmed by the team.
AC sprains are painful injuries, particularly for a running back who will take multiple hits to his shoulder during a game. Though it was optimistic to see Miller on the practice field all week, this tweet from Miami beat writer Adam Beasley is not shocking.
Everything I'm hearing is that Lamar Miller will, as expected, play tomorrow. Will likely be limited though.
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) November 8, 2014
Fantasy expectation: It's hard to know what limited means for Miller today, but it's looking unlikely he'll see more than 10-15 touches and there's a risk of an early end to his day on any direct hit to the shoulder. Consider Miller a risky RB2 with upside today.
martellus bennett | ribs | questionable
The Bears have had multiple skill position players miss key practices during the week and still play on Sunday. Both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery followed that pattern earlier this year. So, Bennett's DNP on Friday isn't an absolute sign he'll miss today's game. But it's definitely a big concern. Bennett was allowed to talk to the media and said he'd "probably" play. Consider him just to the probable side of questionable. Unfortunately, the Bears and Packers are the Sunday night game this week and we likely won't officially know Bennett's status until very late in the afternoon.
Fantasy expectation: I think Bennett will be active based on his Friday comments. But I'm only 60-70% confident. I don't see a viable hedge among the four primetime teams. If you're planning to start Bennett, you're running the risk of a zero. However, the strong matchup may be enough to take the chance if you've no other viable options.
fred jackson | groin | questionable
montee ball | groin | questionable
Both Jackson and Ball returned to practice this week. Both made it through three consecutive limited practices. There seems to be optimism locally for both, particularly Jackson. But I think this week's practices were for conditioning purposes and either player will have to be extremely convincing in pre-game warmups to be cleared for the active roster today.
Jackson has a quick turnaround to a Week 11 road divisional matchup on Thursday night. I don't see him playing today, just three weeks after tearing a groin muscle. Ball has had more time to recover and a slightly better chance to play. These injuries are not easy to recover from, however, and both players would be at very high risk of an aggravation if they return to full speed game action within a week of returning to football-related activity in practice.
Fantasy expectation: We know Ball will be a rotational player at best when he returns, so he's easy to avoid until he shows he's healthy and involved enough in the game plan to be worthy of a flex play. If Jackson is active he won't start (Anthony Dixon will) and his usage is likely to be very limited as well. Leave both on your bench and hope for a healthy stretch run.
730 ET: Rapoport is also reporting the Bills are optimistic about the status of Fred Jackson.
1130 ET: Jackson is active today.
Best of luck in your fantasy games this weekend. I'll be back on Monday morning to review all the Week 10 injuries in the Injury Rounds column. Follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking news and analysis during the games today.
