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The consensus rookie rankings at Footballguys are one of the strongest features we produce each season. However, despite embedded commentary, the consensus rankings can be light on context. If you look carefully, you can see tiers, but it can be difficult to compare players within their position and across multiple positions.
Knowing that Player X is the consensus RB3 is clear from the rankings. Knowing how nearly Player X was to being ranked RB2 or RB6, or how Player X compares to the WR5 or TE1 or LB2 is often much less clear. I prefer a more visual approach, one that tiers players by position but also shows the value of one position relative to another across my draft board.
notes on the draft board
To keep this document searchable in our database, I'm not producing this as a PDF file this year. If you’d prefer a copy of the Excel sheet to download (and/or modify), email me at bramel@footballguys.com or visit the discussion thread in the IDP forum.
**The first version of this feature is based on limited information. Coaching comments, mini-camp observations, debate within the fantasy community and the clarity that comes from testing this board in my own drafts will bring changes to future versions.
**I build this draft board with the following league parameters in mind: 12-14 teams, PPR and balanced IDP scoring, and full IDP lineups that include defensive tackles and cornerbacks. The commentary that follows the draft board will sometimes address modifications for leagues that provide bonuses for tight end scoring, big play IDP systems, etc.
**There may be more than 12-14 players listed in a given draft round. That's a function of the tiering approach. It's also a natural reflection of the wide range of ADP valuations we always see as a rookie draft moves into the deeper rounds.
**This board reflects my personal drafting philosophy. I prioritize upside over safety within tiers and I'm willing to accept a higher bust risk in all rounds. I also prefer to draft players who are likely to be successful sooner if other variables are equal. And I'm not afraid to trust my evaluations of defensive players and draft a second tier IDP over a third tier offensive prospect -- regardless of positional scarcity.
The draft board is designed to be read both top to bottom and left to right. Each position is tiered from top to bottom in its own column. Separations within the columns represent relative tiers and the players are ranked by preference within those tiers. Relative value between positions can be tracked from left to right. The "suggested" draft rounds are based on my view of a player's value, with some consideration given to keep the number of players with a given draft round grade to a reasonable total. Any recent movement in value will be represented with a ^ (or v) in-between major updates.
Positional commentaries can be found after the draft board. The most recent commentary will be in BLUE at the end of each section.
QB | RB | WR | TE | DT | DE | LB | CB | S | |
1 | SAMMY WATKINS | ||||||||
MIKE EVANS | |||||||||
CARLOS HYDE | ODELL BECKHAM | ||||||||
BRANDIN COOKS | |||||||||
BISHOP SANKEY | ^ CODY LATIMER | ||||||||
DEVONTA FREEMAN | DAVANTE ADAMS | ||||||||
TRE MASON | MARQISE LEE | ERIC EBRON | CJ MOSLEY | ||||||
JEREMY HILL | KELVIN BENJAMIN | ||||||||
2 | TEDDY BRIDGEWATER | ISAIAH CROWELL | JORDAN MATTHEWS | ||||||
JOHNNY MANZIEL | TERRANCE WEST | ||||||||
BLAKE BORTLES | ALLEN ROBINSON | ||||||||
MARTAVIS BRYANT | |||||||||
DONTE MONCRIEF | JACE AMARO | ||||||||
JARVIS LANDRY | AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS | AARON DONALD | |||||||
3 | ANDRE WILLIAMS | PAUL RICHARDSON | ^ COLT LYERLA | TELVIN SMITH | |||||
KEVIN NORWOOD | RYAN SHAZIER | ||||||||
JARED ABBREDERIS | |||||||||
LACHE SEASTRUNK | BRUCE ELLINGTON | ||||||||
KADEEM CAREY | JOSH HUFF | ||||||||
CHARLES SIMS | KHALIL MACK | ||||||||
STORM JOHNSON | JADEVEON CLOWNEY | ||||||||
4 | DEREK CARR | LORENZO TALIAFERRO | DOMINIQUE EASLEY | DEMARCUS LAWRENCE | CHRISTIAN KIRKSEY | CALVIN PRYOR | |||
TOM SAVAGE | MARION GRICE | KYLE VAN NOY | |||||||
JERICK MCKINNON | ANTHONY BARR | ^ DEONE BUCANNON | |||||||
JAMES WHITE | RICHARD RODGERS | ||||||||
TROY NIKLAS | CHRIS BORLAND | ||||||||
AARON MURRAY | |||||||||
5 | LOGAN THOMAS | DEANTHONY THOMAS | BRANDON COLEMAN | CJ FIEDOROWICZ | MARCUS SMITH | HA HA CLINTON-DIX | |||
DRI ARCHER | MATT HAZEL | JEREMIAH ATTAOCHU | |||||||
DAVID FALES | JAMES WILDER | SHAQ EVANS | LAMIN BARROW | ||||||
JIMMY GAROPPOLO | DAVID FLUELLEN | DEVIN STREET | KHAIRI FORTT | ||||||
ZACH METTENBERGER | JEREMY GALLON | KONY EALY | KEVIN PIERRE-LOUIS | BROCK VEREEN | |||||
AJ MCCARRON | JEFF JANIS | SCOTT CRICHTON | |||||||
QUINCY ENUNWA | |||||||||
6 | TIM FLANDERS | CROCKETT GILMORE | KAREEM MARTIN | JIMMIE WARD | |||||
ALFRED BLUE | AC LEONARD | DEE FORD | JASON VERRETT | TERRENCE BROOKS | |||||
ROBERT HERRON | WILL CLARKE | TRENT MURPHY | KYLE FULLER | ||||||
JOHN BROWN | WILL SUTTON | CHRIS SMITH | CARL BRADFORD | DARQUEZE DENNARD | |||||
CHANDLER JONES | TIMMY JERNIGAN | TAYLOR HART | PRESTON BROWN | JUSTIN GILBERT | |||||
7- | BRETT SMITH | RAIJON NEAL | JALEN SAUNDERS | JOE DON DUNCAN | EGO FERGUSON | RA'SHEDE HAGEMAN | ANTHONY HITCHENS | STANLEY JEAN-BAPTISTE | LAMARCUS JOYNER |
FA | TYLER GAFFNEY | MICHAEL CAMPANARO | JAY BROMLEY | JACKSON JEFFCOAT | JORDAN TRIPP | BRADLEY ROBY | DEZ SOUTHWARD | ||
ANTONIO ANDREWS | WILLIE SNEAD | DAQUAN JONES | BRENT URBAN | AVERY WILLIAMSON | JAYLEN WATKINS | VINNIE SUNSERI | |||
KAPRI BIBBS | RYAN GRANT | CARAUN REID | STEPHON TUITT | SHAYNE SKOV | KEITH MCGILL | TRE BOSTON | |||
TJ JONES | LOUIS NIX | MICHAEL SAM | JORDAN ZUMWALT | MARQUESTON HUFF | JEMEA THOMAS | ||||
KOFI HUGHES | JUSTIN ELLIS | JAMES GAYLE | AARON LYNCH | WALT AIKENS | AHMAD DIXON | ||||
GERALDO BOLDEWIJN | CHRISTIAN JONES | PIERRE DESIR | KENNY LADLER | ||||||
AARON COLVIN | |||||||||
BASHAUD BREELAND | |||||||||
NEVIN LAWSON | |||||||||
DEX MCDOUGLE | |||||||||
PHILLIP GAINES |
the big picture
This was a struggle.
I tried to make the tiers at running back, wide receiver and linebacker less clumpy. But I don't see much separation this year.
None of the three top quarterbacks went to an immediately fantasy-friendly situation. Many of the running backs I liked before the draft are stuck behind established every-down players or are in clear committee situations. The wide receiver group is deep, but I have at least one nagging doubt about every player in a long, muddled second-third tier. There's precisely one defensive end who projects to more than 500 snaps in his rookie season. And I don't care for the fit and long term value for most of the off the line of scrimmage linebackers.
However, though the ceiling is full of risk, the number of players who have a chance at viable fantasy football value is higher than it has been in years.
You can leverage this in two ways.
Option 1: Dump your 2014 picks for 2015 picks or veteran players you like better. Given what I'm hearing about next year's crop of running backs and quarterbacks, this may be your best plan of attack. Of course, nothing is certain.
Option 2: Trade back and compile picks between the 2nd and 4th rounds and take as many shots as you can.
Both of these options are easier written than accomplished, of course, if your leaguemates feel the same way. If you're forced to execute your picks as-is, here's my position-by-position look at why this year's board is as clumpy as it seems.
quarterback
The quarterback tiers are simple. The first tier includes three potential long term starters who should get a chance to start immediately. I don't like the surrounding cast for Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel or Blake Bortles yet, so I have them ranked as I liked them before the draft. I won't stand on the table for any of the three, however.
The second tier includes Derek Carr and Tom Savage, the two quarterbacks who may not start immediately but are certain to get a shot between opening weekend 2014 and opening weekend 2015. The third tier includes Aaron Murray and Logan Thomas, who I don't think are as certain to get a shot by the beginning of 2015. If I had to shuffle this tier together, I'd probably rank them Carr-Murray-Savage-Thomas. You'll notice that Zach Mettenberger isn't included here. The next tier are players that I think are long term backups. I like David Fales better than Jimmy Garoppolo and A.J. McCarron.
Deep leaguers with roster space to burn should consider stashing Brett Smith. A number of quarterback evaluators I read liked Smith and the situation in Tampa Bay is far from certain.
running back
Odell Beckham and Brandin Cooks will produce sooner and may have higher floors, but I love the fit and situation for Carlos Hyde. Bishop Sankey may end up as the consensus top ranked rookie running back, but I'd rather have Hyde.
I nearly put Isaiah Crowell above Bishop Sankey as my second overall running back. In the end, however, there's too much risk to use a mid-first round pick on Crowell. The Browns used a third round pick on Terrance West despite signing Ben Tate. But they also enticed Crowell to sign as an undrafted free agent with a large bonus. If Crowell is focused and his preseason play matches his tape, he could get enough playing time to become the best back in this class. If you can't unload a late first or early second round pick and you're not sold on a quarterback or wide receiver, take a chance on Crowell. I think he's strong value anytime after the late second round.
I'm not sure where to put Andre Williams, but I like the upside and long term situation enough to separate him from a group of backs I liked pre-draft but who ended up behind strong established backs.
A poster in the Shark Pool published a list of all the fourth round (and later) running backs over the past few seasons. For every Alfred Morris, there are multiple teases and disappointing sleepers. That's not to say you should shy away from guys like Storm Johnson and James White and Lorenzo Talioferro -- whose situations are enticing in the long term -- but be careful before reaching for them in the second round.
That doesn't include Devonta Freeman, who was drafted at the top of the fourth round to an attractive depth chart in Atlanta. I like him in the back half of the first round.
In the later rounds, I think James White and James Wilder are interesting flyers. Wilder was brought in on a UDFA contract after the Bengals drafted Jeremy Hill in the second round. But if Hill flops, Wilder could be the punishing runner that eventually replaces BenJarvus Green-Ellis. And there's always room for a surprise in New England and the Patriots liked White enough to take him in the fourth round.
wide receiver
Sammy Watkins is the clear top overall rookie this year. Mike Evans will be the second rookie off the board, but I don't agree that there's a mini-tier break between Evans and your RB1 or Odell Beckham and Brandin Cooks. Beckham is a complete receiver and could be a WR2+ soon with Rueben Randle struggling and the Giants' offense screaming for stability. Cooks drops to the back half of the first round in non-PPR leagues.
I just don't have clarity on the next three tiers yet. I'm hoping it comes during the rookie drafts I have in the next few days.
I can't ignore the opportunity and upside of a talented, athletic wide receiver whose skill set meshes well with Aaron Rodgers, so I'll be targeting Davante Adams with my late first round, early second round picks.
After that, it's messy. I'm not sure I like Marquise Lee, Kelvin Benjamin or Jordan Matthews, but the situations are solid and they'll get early chances to produce. I do like Cody Latimer, Allen Robinson, Kevin Norwood and Martavis Bryant but I don't believe their opportunity is as good. If you're willing to develop a player for the future, that Latimer thru Moncrief tier should be very attractive.
I liked Paul Richardson and Kevin Norwood before the draft. One of them will move up this board after OTAs and early in training camp. But I'm not certain who'll mesh with Russell Wilson best and attract enough targets as a complementary option to Percy Harvin. I'd like to think it'll be Norwood, who Pete Carroll praised in a pre-draft interview. But the Seahawks drafted Richardson, who I think is more than a slot receiver, two rounds earlier.
I have Brandon Coleman (UDFA - New Orleans) as a fifth round option on the strength of situation alone. Jeremy Gallon and Jeff Janis are similar flyers from high-powered offenses who aren't afraid to put young players on the field if the depth chart warrants.
tight end
The Lions' depth chart is a little muddy at tight end, but they spent an early first round pick on Eric Ebron. He may not play to a first round rookie pick right away. If you don't want to wait for him to develop into a mid-range TE1, drop him to the mid-second round in the Latimer - Bryant range.
I've given Jace Amaro and Austin Seferian-Jenkins a vanilla tiering. That has as much to do with their quarterback situations as anything. If you like either, run them up your draft board alongside Ebron. If you aren't interested in paying a second round price for one of these three, target Richard Rodgers as an upside developmental play late.
I've never put a player on this draft board twice. Colt Lyerla is the first. If he signs with a team -- any team -- he's at minimum a fourth round value for me. It's growing increasing unlikely that he'll be signed as a UDFA, however, and he'll rise no higher than a deep dynasty stash / watch list player until he is signed.
defensive tackle
I don't think I've ever given a defensive tackle a grade higher than the fifth round. This year, there are two.
There are multiple reasons for that. First, and most important, Aaron Donald and Dominique Easley are elite, penetrating talents. Second, both were drafted into primo situations, alongside stud weak side defensive ends who will make it nearly impossible for opposing offensive lines to double team a 3-technique pass rusher in nickel situations. Third, there aren't many attractive top tier IDPs, which make an potentially elite defensive tackle that much more valuable this year.
defensive end
Ugh. A deeper than usual group of edge rushers became a fantasy abyss on draft day. The most attractive edge rushers -- Khalil Mack, Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Barr, Kyle Van Noy, Jeremiah Attaochu -- will be classified as linebackers. Two of the three viable defensive ends on this draft board -- Kony Ealy and Scott Crichton -- were taken by teams with two established 700+ snap starters and will not have value for years without injury.
That leaves DeMarcus Lawrence as the lone defensive end with a grade above the sixth round this year. Lawrence should see enough playing time to slot in a DL3+ tier for 2014, but his floor makes him hard to trust this year. In fact, there's an argument that I have him a full round too high because he's the only defensive end worth drafting in the top 60 picks this year.
You're going to hear Will Clarke compared to Michael Johnson. That may eventually prove true. But the Bengals are going to rotate Carlos Dunlap, Margus Hunt and Wallace Gilberry for the foreseeable future. Don't jump the Clarke bandwagon just yet.
linebacker
As I wrote in the pre-draft series, I think we're getting closer and closer to changing the paradigm of the linebacker position in IDP leagues. The number of edge rushing linebacker is ever-increasing, as is the number of off the line of scrimmage players who platoon and fail to reach 600 snaps in a season.
That trend has severely muddied this draft board.
C.J. Mosley is at the top of my board. I'm not too concerned about the recent run of so-so Alabama linebackers, the re-signing of Daryl Smith and the presence of last year's first round draft pick, a healthy Arthur Brown.
Every other off the line of scrimmage linebacker with a fifth round grade or better vexes me. Telvin Smith was proud of himself for getting to 219 pounds in his post-draft interviews. It's a great situation for him in Jacksonville, but a frightening one. Ryan Shazier doesn't look like a 3-4 inside linebacker to me, but I once had similar concerns about Lawrence Timmons. If Shazier shows signs of becoming another Daryl Washington in a similar scheme, I'm way underrating him. He's the most likely IDP to jump tiers between now and the first update of this feature next week. I don't care for Christian Kirksey, but I'm a big Mike Pettine fan and the depth chart is wide open for the taking in Cleveland. I really liked Chris Borland throughout the predraft process. While he's arguably belongs ahead of Smith and Shazier for 2014 value, it may be 2016 or 2017 before his value returns once NaVorro Bowman reclaims a starting role.
In the past, there may have been 2-3 rush linebackers tiered as potential draftees here. This season, there are nine worth considering in a seven round draft. Three of the top four rush linebackers -- Khalil Mack, Anthony Barr and Kyle Van Noy -- are going to be used in a Von Miller like role, which puts them in a class of their own as potential 55-10 (or better) producers. That kind of ceiling brings LB1 value to a player who may have many weeks with a 2-0-0 line.
I think Mack has an excellent chance to do what Miller has done and I may be underrating him here. Jadeveon Clowney is close, but I don't think he'll have the tackle upside. Think of Mack as a Terrell Suggs / Von Miller type fantasy player, while Clowney is more of a Robert Mathis / John Abraham style option.
There are three late round grade off the line of scrimmage backers with upside. Lamin Barrow didn't impress me before the draft, but John Elway convinced me that the Broncos may give him a chance to play inside this preseason. That will be a key OTA battle to watch. Khairi Fortt should take over next to Curtis Lofton by the beginning of 2015. And I really liked the tape on Kevin Pierre-Louis. I'm not sure where he'll play this year, but he could force himself into 700 snap contention as a part time base defender and nickel coverage backer soon.
You should also keep an eye on Avery Williamson and Anthony Hitchens. I'm far from sold on either player, but both could see opportunity in time. One player I did like who won't see much opportunity is Shayne Skov, who was reported to have signed with Oakland -- which would have been a great spot for a UDFA linebacker -- only to change his mind and agree to a contract with San Francisco.
cornerback
Kyle Fuller, a big, physical player with a skill set that fits Chicago's scheme perfectly, and Jason Verrett, a Antoine Winfield clone with a clear road to a starting gig in San Diego, are the class of this group.
But there's a huge watch list of guys who could produce under the rookie corner rule or who fit the profile (big, willing in run support, good ball skills) of a strong fantasy corner.
safety
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was expected to be the highest drafted safety last week. But Calvin Pryor went earlier and to a perfect situaiton. If you're willing to consider a safety before the fifth or sixth round, he's your target anytime after the mid-third round. I also like Deone Bucannon and Brock Vereen as dual threat safeties with a good chance to start immediately.
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.