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When Jeremy Hill left the game early last week with an injury I remember thinking to myself and that’s why you always fade the popular play. Then, 154 yards and two touchdowns later I remember thinking to myself and that’s why you never ignore value in the name of contrarianism.
The intersection of talent and opportunity is always the destination in fantasy football. When talent and opportunity are spiked with a major value in terms of salary, we have a golden path to profit. It didn’t get any easier than Hill in Week 9.
This week we don’t have such a luxury but the strategy remains intact. If we were to deconstruct it into a simple formula it would be Value = Opportunity/Talent. Properly identifying value is the tricky part. As always, we’ll turn to Las Vegas for some guidance. But beyond that, when it comes to running backs, whose productivity is more susceptible to game flow than any other position, we can find an edge by looking for not just plus matchups, but also by looking for home matchups.
The home vs. road dynamic shouldn’t be ignored and one that I don’t think the crowd is wise to. There is an advantage hidden in selecting a ball carrier for the home team. To illustrate just how much, I queried the Data Dominator and the results were telling.
The average of the 25 highest scoring running backs at home through the first nine weeks of this season is 56.8. Conversely, the average for the 25 highest scoring running backs on the road is 46.8, a significant drop off in production.
Of course, the data isn’t perfect. It doesn’t account for injuries or quality of opponent. It doesn’t know, for example, that the Atlanta Falcons have been leaking yards and touchdowns regardless of where they play. Nor does it eliminate the possibility that 2014 is an outlier.
So naturally, I turned back to the Data Dominator and expanded my search criteria. Starting in 2010 through Week 9 of this year, I averaged the top 100 running backs in terms of total fantasy points scored. At home, that number is 194.5. On the road we sacrifice 20.6 points with an average of 173.9. As an example, in the allowed timeframe Marshawn Lynch scored 560.1 points at home. On the road he totaled 401.1.
Again, the data isn’t perfect but the evidence exists. And it may seem obvious—common sense tells us that home field advantage favors all players from the home team—but it’s nice to have numbers to back up intuitions.
All things being equal, if we need a tiebreaker between two similarly priced running backs, go with the home team. Then all you have to do is be perfect at every other position and BOOM: profit.
QUARTERBACKS
Before we get into it I want to turn to the magic of Twitter and pin a few tweets that I found amazing/amusing:
Just saw that Ben Roethlisberger is the first NFL QB EVER to throw 12 TDs in two games... Some kind of hot-streak the Steelers are on...
— Pat Doney (@PatDoneyNBC5) November 3, 2014
Only 2 QB have had a pair of 6 TD pass games in the same SEASON ... Y.A. Tittle in 1962 and Ben Roethlisberger in 2014
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 3, 2014
Ben Roethlisberger’s 12 TD passes over last two games are two more than he threw in the first seven games combined.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 3, 2014
Well... RT @SportsTaxMan: Pitt's Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 6 TD passes in each of his last 2 games. Vikings have thrown 6 this season.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 3, 2014
The question becomes should we avoid the name-brand quarterbacks this week given Ben Roethlisberger’s recent performances and pending matchup? Is it possible to fade Roethlisberger? His price has sort of caught up yet he’s still a cheaper option than Matthew Stafford. Obviously, expecting six more passing touchdowns in one game would be foolish. We could have said that same thing last week. He checks in, without surprise, as the most popular option in all of DFS at 26 percent. I expect that number to be closer to 40 percent come Sunday. But there are cheaper options with equally enticing matchups and comparable receivers. Fade? Sort of. If you enter only one lineup then yes. Take on some risk in a tournament and leave Big Ben in the pool.
I don’t have a good sample size to pull from that illustrates how Peyton Manning performs after a bad loss. I do have memories of a Thursday night game last year versus San Diego when he struggled against an otherwise horrible defense. He then went on the road and attempted 51 passes, second most of the season, carving up the Texans for 400 yards and four touchdowns. How does this translate to current day? I think we’ll see the Broncos open up the playbook and look to embarrass a division rival in their own backyard. A Broncos stack is costly but recommended by all means. Per usual, Manning is the most expensive player and seeing plenty of action at 9.8 percent
What I’m about to tell you could awake the gods of fantasy wrath so I’ll say it quietly: as of Thursday night Mark Sanchez is the second highest sought after quarterback. I’ll spare you the links to rabbit hole forums suggesting you should start him with confidence against a bad Panther’s offense and how he’s a great tournament play. We have, after all, witnessed Chip Kelly’s system prop up Nick Foles. Surely Sanchez can… I’ll cut myself off right here and just advise the fade. If he wasn’t exposed at a rate of 13.7 percent and growing, I’d be more inclined to purchase his services. Given his popularity I’m not willing to risk his floor, even in a system that favors simplicity. If you’re going to go cheap at least fade the crowd while you’re at it.
Back to our elite options we find Aaron Rodgers at six percent. Earlier this season he traveled to Chicago and tore up the Bears secondary for 302 yards and four touchdowns. The Pack-Stack is in play though it will cost you. Rodgers is recommended in all formats.
Opposite Rodgers is Jay Cutler. His record against the Packers does little to encourage our confidence. In fact, he’s thrown more interceptions (19) against this division rival than any other team. But what happened in the past has little to do with what will happen on Sunday. The Packers have been decent against wide receivers and their quarterbacks. It’s on the ground where they suffer, making me believe the Bears will push Matt Forte. Still, Cutler scares the crowd (1.9%) and stacking him with one of his three great receiving options in the highest over/under of the week is a great way to cut the grain.
Diving into the bargain bin we find Blake Bortles. It would be easier to recommend him if he could go just one game without throwing an interception. Last week was only the second time all year he had fewer than two. His salary of $6,300 gives us the luxury of pimping out our rosters elsewhere and the matchup is tempting. But I can’t rest easy and advise his services, even if the contrarian in me wants to. If you’re going to go that deep you might as well go all the way and grab Josh McCown. At least he has reliable receivers and a darling of a matchup.
For a couple hundred dollars less is Zach Mettenberger on the road, fresh off of a bye, against a depleted Ravens secondary. In his first start he did enough to at least earn our confidence as a tournament play. He’s on just 0.4 percent of early rosters and is plenty affordable ($6,100).
But if you’re really looking for a sneaky tournament play and love the implied the risk associated with it, Michael Vick is a tempting option for $6,900. The Steelers’ defense is about as threatening as a cold cup of coffee and if we are to believe that Roethlisberger will put the Jets out of commission, we should also believe the Jets will be forced into Vick mode—meaning lots of passing and lots of him running. The risk, as it has been and as it always will be, is injury. But don’t think about that and instead roll the dice on a Jets stack.
RUNNING BACKS
Ronnie Hillman is the most popular candidate as of the Thursday slate. I’m not putting my money on a running back who struggles to move the ball behind a line that struggles to move defenders and shares a large chunk of the score with Manning and all of his receivers. The fact is the Broncos are going to Oakland and they are going to throw. For $7,400 we can get more for our money. Fade.
Our most expensive options are Matt Forte and DeMarco Murray. Both players are immune to games scripts but I’m never comfortable spending such a large percentage of my cap on running backs. If you’re going to make room for one of these guys it has to be Forte. The Packers are allowing more rushing yards per game than any other team. I’ll be fading both.
LeSean McCoy is significantly cheaper and benefits from the home field advantage I outlined earlier. The Panthers have allowed the third most points to running backs including 12 total touchdowns, three of which have come through the air. I love his value as a loss leader and I’ll have him in most lineups.
Bobby Rainey is the next candidate that will enjoy a soft matchup at home. The crowd isn’t shy about him at 7.1 percent and I expect that number to grow. Pairing him with McCoy for a grand total of $14,400 allows us to be somewhat aggressive in other areas. Start him with confidence.
Mark Ingram has found his way onto 7.3 percent of teams. I have no interest in the Saints running game this Sunday, or any Sunday going forward.
The Dallas Cowboys confused analysts in the first half of the season with their better than expected defense. Lately we’ve seen ghosts of 2013 as injuries have crept their way into the lineup setting up a nice matchup for Denard Robinson. Technically it’s a home game for the Jaguars, though London is a long, cold ways away from Jacksonville. He’s the 10th highest scoring running back (PPR) over the last three weeks. For $6,800 you can’t say no.
If you’re feeling risky, and you should be in large tournaments, Chris Johnson is on just 0.2 percent of teams. Again, we have a running back playing at home in a decent matchup. The game script could immediately render him useless but he doesn’t cost much ($6,200). The main reason to fade him is to stack your Jets with bigger options.
WIDE RECEIVERS
The wide receiver pricing on FanDuel this week is less than friendly. They’ve made it very hard to go chalk at ball hawk and not torch your floor in the process. The big question, like always, is how much do we fade the crowd? We're gifted with matchups that are too good to pass up. But fading the crowded receiver corps could provide immediate leverage should things go sour.
It comes as no surprise that Antonio Brown is our most expensive and most popular option. He checks in as our loss leader of the week. It’s impossible to ignore the matchup. In fact, it’s a good idea to ignore every matchup when it comes to fantasy’s No. 1 receiver.
I was hoping the bye week amnesia would hit owners and Jordy Nelson would fly under the radar. Alas, he finds his way onto 14 percent of early rosters. He’s actually cheaper than Randall Cobb this week making this decision obvious. But if you’re looking for a discount on a Pack-Stack Davante Adams is a great tournament swing-for-the-fences play. In truth, I’ll probably avoid all of the Packers receivers and instead just purchase Rodgers.
In the process of fading Green Bay wide-outs you can afford Julio Jones. He’s cheaper than both Nelson and Cobb and gets a better matchup. The last time he faced Tampa Bay he went off for 162 yards and two touchdowns. He hasn’t had a touchdown since but I’ll have him in every lineup. My guess is he’ll challenge Brown as the most exposed receiver come Sunday, giving us two loss leaders to choose from. As much as I like to be different, there is serious value in designing a roster that features both options.
Long forgotten are the dominate days of Calvin Johnson. He’s appearing on just 3.6 percent of rosters. I’m confident in saying his price tag of $8,800 will be the cheapest we’ll see for the rest of the season. Fear not the Dolphins defense and fire up Megatron as you normally would.
Also forgotten is Dez Bryant. Early numbers show a massive fade at three percent. I would suspect that will change should Romo be cleared to play, but not by much. We have a unique situation with Johnson and Bryant being largely ignored. This is a great time to fade the crowd and grab both of them in place of Brown and Jones. The cost is similar with the added advantage of separating from the pack.
The only thing Percy Harvin has done since he was traded from the Seahawks is have his best fantasy output of the season. The crowd doesn’t mind the $6,600 salary as he’s finding his way onto 6.1 percent of lineups. I don’t expect that to change much between now and Sunday. I mentioned I’m not threatened by the Steelers’ defense. Stacking Vick and Harvin makes for an interesting GPP play that I’ll roll out in a number of combinations.
Buried underneath all of the elite options we have Justin Hunter. His exposure of 1.7 percent and salary of $5,400 is exactly what we’re looking for in tournaments, especially when paying up for a quarterback. Kendall Wright is an even better play but he’ll cost us $1,100 more. As much as I like the matchup I think there are superior options in that price range. If you’re risking your floor with a Titans receiver go with Hunter.
Harvin’s replacement in the Seahawks offense, Doug Baldwin, is dealing with a groin injury and his status for Sunday is in question. The next man up is an elite speedster, Paul Richardson Jr. Strictly a tournament homerun play, Richardson has a great matchup against a battered Giants secondary. The only fear I have is threat of the Seahawks going into grind mode and riding Lynch to an uneasy victory. But if you need a sub $5,000 option with a decent chance of hauling a few deep balls, Richardson is your man.
TIGHT ENDS
Paying a premium for wide receiver matchups means we need to find some salary cap alleviation at tight end. Thankfully Week 10 offers some safety.
Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas are tough sells for me. I’d love to round out my rosters for either one but I’d much prefer to spend that money elsewhere.
Bullying the Jets’ offense is the theme this week and Heath Miller is in great position to do just that. No team has allowed more touchdowns to tight ends (11). For the price ($5,300) it’s hard to find a better option even with the implied risk of taking a player that’s involved in the offense once every couple of weeks.
At that same price point we find Larry Donnell. The crowd loves him as he clocks in as our third most popular option behind Thomas and just barely shy of Martellus Bennett. For me he registers as too much of a hit or miss. I think he misses in Seattle on Sunday. It’s easy to fade the crowd on this one.
The truth is safety is not guaranteed outside of the top two or three tight ends. You can gain a huge edge at this spot by paying up. But if you don’t pay up you should just head straight to the basement. Miller and Donnell are prime examples of low floor plays but still offer a glimmer of hope that they’ll at least find a catch in the end zone. For $200 cheaper, Clay Harbor and Zach Ertz represent the same opportunity, and perhaps more talent, at a discount. I wouldn’t touch these guys in cash games but they’re fine tournament plays in a week where tight ends are tough to peg.
SAMPLE LINEUP
Did I mention something about fading Sanchez? When in the last three or four years would we not start a defense facing him? I grant you things have change a lot and the Panthers have been a huge disappointment in that area, but Chip Kelly be damned. In the process of cutting the grain defensively, I’ll enjoy going chalk at wide receiver while also throwing out a rookie quarterback who's trying to make his situation permanent. He has the receivers and matchup to do it this week.
As a bonus I’m going to give you a second lineup. The Interactive Value Charts love this roster to the tune of 129.5 points. That’s the best I could program. Tweet at me if you can beat it.