The size of tournaments is increasing by the week and with them is the size of payouts. From the FanDuel $1.75M Sunday NFL Million, which has been the focus of this column, to the Millionaire Maker on DraftKings, the land of DFS is growing exponentially. It’s becoming more and more important to design rosters that offer both unique investments and supreme upside.
Last week we saw the power of stacks, especially those that take advantage of low exposure. Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas ended up on 3.6%, 4.2% and 4.4% of rosters respectively. Together they combined for 93.16 points. If you paired them with the likes of Arian Foster and Ben Tate, you had yourself a fine payout.
Meanwhile, Rashad Jennings ended up on 41.2% of rosters, and thanks to an injury, finished with only 8.2 points. I listed him here last week as a loss leader. But this should serve as a reminder that fading popular plays is always the best strategy since we’re always going to be victims to “any given Sunday”.
One thing I haven’t discussed since the season opened is the concept of submitting multiple rosters. In GPPs variance is king. So hedging your bets, at some point, becomes an exercise in futility.
And for all you up in arms about markgenorex entering 1272 roster combinations into the millionaire maker total profit -$15,100.63 #DFS
— DFSreport (@DFSReport) October 7, 2014
I enter multiple tournaments across multiple sites every week. And I encourage entering multiple lineups in the same tournament but within reason. In fact, the bigger the tournament, the fewer lineups you should enter. In the case of the Millionaire Maker where 92,400 lineups are being played, throwing out 10 or 20 or more nets you little. At that point you’re donating your money with inferior options.
But if you do enter multiple lineups always be sure that they include alternate stacks. That’s the best way to ensure luck plays in your favor. Last week I loved pairing Austin Davis with Brian Quick. But I also loved Manning and Thomas (and Thomas). Naturally, it made since to throw out both options, all while decorating each roster with a few bargain plays. The trap you can fall into here is the temptation to upgrade various other positions as you take a discount elsewhere. So you could miss out on a big play in one lineup simply because you had the cap room to upgrade. Variance will always be our closest friend and thereby our closest enemy.
At the end of the day, or in our case, at the end of the Monday night game, the strategy is simple: fade the crowd but not at the expense of unmatched value.
Low exposure. High scores. Can’t lose.
quarterbacks
There are plenty of good matchups for the top tier group of quarterbacks. Phillip Rivers is a great play against the Raiders. But he’ll cost you both in terms of salary ($9,100) and exposure (9.7%).
Matt Ryan has a similar situation. The matchup is excellent as he is a stud at home, averaging 31.2 fantasy points in the Georgia Dome versus 19.7 on the road. He’ll be one of the heaviest owned at 7.5 percent. Still, a Ryan/Julio Jones stack can swing tournaments. I don’t mind using either players as loss leaders. In fact, I encourage it.
As mentioned, Manning was faded and forgotten last week and locked up the best value we’ve seen all season. He’s now back to his usual high salary/high exposure at $10,200 and 13.8%. It’s going to be hard to fade him given the matchup. Pay up if you must but I’m going to recommend a pass in search of better value.
Brother Eli checks in as the next highest owned. His salary of $7,200 is exactly what we’re looking for when it comes to quarterbacks in games that feature an over/under of 50.5. The Giants offense has been rocking over the last couple of weeks and in that time Eli has been the third highest scoring quarterback. His exposure of 12.2 percent means he’s sure to be one of the highest owned. And it makes sense. The Eagles defense has given up more passing touchdowns than all other teams setting him up as a fine loss leader.
Russell Wilson also gets a great matchup at home against a Dallas Cowboys team that is playing better than anyone expected. His dual-threat abilities are enough to justify both his cost ($8,400) and his exposure (9%). My fear is this game becomes a battle of clock and field position, rendering most fantasy options as high-risk/low-reward plays. I’d rather take a discount and plug Eli.
The Green Bay Packers are coming off of a long week after dismantling the Vikings last Thursday night. They’ll travel south and face a Dolphins secondary that the stats suggest have been stingy against the pass. Further research finds that they’ve faced Alex Smith, E.J. Manuel, Derek Carr and Matt McGloin. Even Tom Brady can’t be considered tough competition at this stage. What this tells me is we’re about to see just how bad this secondary is. Aaron Rodgers has as many touchdown passes as Manning, Peyton, trailing only Andrew Luck. As expected, he’s the second most expensive option on all of FanDuel but his exposure of only four percent creates huge value. This is a good week to purchase a Rodgers/Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb stack.
In the bargain bin we’ll find the usual suspects. Brian Hoyer will cost us just $6,500. A home game against the Steelers isn’t a threat to his fantasy outcome. The Browns have been running a hurry up offense effectively, even if out of necessity. But my guess is we’ll see that primo running game used to the fullest, which is the biggest threat to Hoyer as far as tournament plays are concerned.
Mike Glennon makes for a solid contrarian play. His salary of $6,400 leaves us plenty of freedom to pimp out our rosters at other positions, and his exposure of just 0.5 percent means we get him all to ourselves. The Ravens defense is allowing the 27th most passing yards but so far have only given up four touchdowns, tying them with the Bengals for the fewest in the league. Even so, I like Glennon and company to find the end zone enough times to justify his tournament presence.
Running Backs
Recency bias is a beautiful thing. You won’t be surprised to learn that Branden Oliver is checking in as the highest owned running back in all of DFS. In fact, he’s the highest owned player overall at 30.5 percent. I expect that number to grow plenty by Sunday.
Obviously, I’m going to suggest a fade. The fact is we saw Oliver’s best game of the season last week. Expecting 182 yards and two touchdowns, even against the lowly Raiders is just irresponsible. Keep in mind that 102 of his yards came on two big plays. Granted, that’s exactly what we’re looking for in tournaments, but he doesn’t strike me as a big play guy. He’s plenty talented. He gets low and has the vision to weave through tackles. His two touchdowns were no fluke. So it’s not that he won’t have a good game. It’s that he won’t have a big enough game to side with the crowd.
Andre Williams is another guy that quickly found his way onto a lot of rosters. He checks in as our second highest owned running back. I love the way he runs. He’s physical. He looks for contact but can still cut to the hole and grab chunks of yards. What scares me is the Tom Coughlin effect. One fumble and Sunday night becomes the Peyton Hillis show, who, by the way, will be on basically zero rosters and cost you just $4,600. But I don’t recommend any Giants running back as a GPP play. This is going to be a shootout which always favors receivers and quarterbacks.
Matt Forte and Andre Ellington are the next highest in terms of exposure. Forte’s salary prices him out of tournament consideration. I don’t like the Bears on the road and we haven’t seen enough to suggest that they’ll commit to running the ball. Even if he’s a big part of the passing game, I’ll let the 14.4 percent of players that are currently rostering him risk lowering their floors at almost every other position, even if the matchup is excellent.
Ellington is affordable ($7,200) and his exposure (11%) reflects that. What’s not reflected is his fluky touchdown against the Broncos and the fact that Washington has only allowed three rushing touchdowns all season with only one of those going to a running back. Arian Foster is the lone back to rush for 100 yards and Marshawn Lynch is the next closest at 72 yards. The game is in Arizona, which helps, but the quarterback situation does not. Fade.
As always, I prefer to take a discount here and find backs that offer unrecognized upside. And as much as I hate to do it, I have to recommend Bishop Sankey. The crowd has grown tired of plugging him in as a cheap option, many thanks to the frustrating play-calling by the Titans. This week it’s looking like Shonn Greene won’t be available. Finally, we might get to see Sankey as the lead dog. With any luck Ken Whisenhunt and company learned their lesson last week when they blew a huge lead to the Browns. They are sure to go into clock control mode should they gain a lead over the visiting Jaguars. And even if they don’t, I expect Sankey to get a lot of work. As of Thursday he was only on 1.9 percent of rosters. That may change if Greene is confirmed to be out, but his salary of $5,600 won’t.
Joique Bell is this week’s Pierre Thomas. He’s on just 0.9 percent of rosters as fear of injuries scare away most players. I expect that number to grow should Reggie Bush be ruled out or severely limited. For $6,500 I like the upside he brings to the table, especially as a starter, and especially for an offense missing their best player.
I was a little surprised to see Ben Tate’s exposure as low as 4.7 percent. The Browns are running the ball as well as any team, if not better than all teams. Their offense line is a moving wall creating lanes for all three of their backs. Last week Tate returned from injury and returned to form rushing 22 times for 123 yards. He came up short of a touchdown twice. The opportunities were there and they’ll be there again this week. If you’re not convinced, feel free to ogle his metrics. What’s amazing is those metrics actually show up on the field. We just need him to stay healthy. For $6,800 I’m willing to wager he’ll pick up right where he left the last time he faced the Steelers, except this time he finishes.
If you’re looking for a swing in the dark at a homerun hitter, consider Robert Turbin. As you might guess he’s on basically zero rosters. But should this game get out of control in the favor of the Seahawks, Turbin will be in line for all of those lovely garbage time points. Furthermore, Lynch’s back is liable to lock up on any given Sunday. Either way, we haven’t seen enough snaps filtered Turbin’s way to offer him as anything more than an implied risk tourney play. But this is how you put luck in your favor.
Wide Receivers
Like Oliver, Golden Tate is the flavor of the week showing up on 30.1 percent of rosters. In the absence of the real Calvin Johnson he has flourished as the number one option for Matthew Stafford. But regardless of his tempting $6,400 salary, I have to fade the crowd in what looks like a trap game for the Lions.
If we’re to use the Vegas over/under as our guide, as we should, Atlanta hosting Chicago is a game we should get at least two players in, if not four. The over/under stands at 54 with the Falcons favored to win by only three points. A Ryan/Jones stack is recommended as is a Culter/Jeffery stack. The exposure to Jones is already at 11.2 percent and it will grow. But I’ll have him in most of my lineups. The sneaky play here is Roddy White who is showing up on only 2.6 percent of teams. This is a great week for a Ryan/Jones/White trio.
Our next highest over/under is represented by the NFC East in a divisional showdown between the Eagles and the Giants. The Eagles have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team. I love Victor Cruz even if the market share is shrinking for Giants receivers. His salary is moderately priced at $6,800, and his exposure isn’t discouraging at 6.5 percent.
Just below him is Odell Beckham Jr who is finally healthy. I wonder if there’s any coincidence to his return and the sudden turnaround by the Giants offense. Either way, he’s not exactly flying under the radar at six percent owned, but for $6,000 I love him as a tournament hero.
Mohamed Sanu checks in as a heavily owned opportunistic play with A.J. Green expected to be out a few weeks. His salary is more than comfortable at $6,000. But his early exposure of 13 percent screams fade. If you want a receiver in his price range see Beckham.
Dez Bryant is everyone’s favorite fade this week. It’s understandable as we can’t trust Tony Romo and company to move much in Seattle. But if you want to cut the grain Bryant is appearing on just 0.7 percent of rosters. I’m willing to bet that the Cowboys will move him around enough to keep him away from Richard Sherman. And it’s not as if the Seahawks have been the dominant shutdown defense we saw last year. As always, when the crowd fades the player, fade the crowd.
In the bargain bin we find Justin Hunter. Last week he gathered three catches for 97 yards and touchdown. It’s becoming obvious that he will be a big part of the Titans offense from this point forward. The Jaguars have allowed the fifth most points to receivers through five weeks and I love Hunter for the low, low price of $5,900. As of Thursday he was underexposed at just 2.8 percent.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham isn’t available to us this week which means our usual suspects are going to see a slight bump in ownership. Julius Thomas is always near the top of the list yet is showing up on only 8.7 percent of rosters as of Thursday. The Jets are a tasty matchup and we can count on Manning to toss his usual 300-plus yards and few scores. But I’ll be fading Thomas this week in favor of more affordable options.
Martellus Bennett is the crowd favorite appearing on a staggering 16.2 percent of rosters. He has become one of Cutler’s favorite targets and the game against the Falcons tells us his $5,900 salary is more than justified. But my contrarian instincts are urging me to look elsewhere for a tight end.
Antonio Gates is another crowd favorite. At 14.1 percent owned it’s clear we all feel the same way about the Raiders defense. Myself, I miss the days of Ladarius Green being the hot pick. The tables have certainly turned in that regard. What’s great is now Green is actually priced correctly and Gates has soared into almost uncomfortable levels. It’s unfortunate that he has been playing so well and Green has been reduced to a backup role in an offense that spreads the ball around. But if you want to put luck in your favor, fade Gates; start Green.
More in line with sanity is Rob Gronkowski. Every week he plays is a week that tells me he will eventually be the top-priced tight end. He had six catches for 100 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals last week, and this week he is not listed on the injury report (first time ever?). Yet, he’s on just 4.5 percent of rosters. Surely that will grow by Sunday but not enough to discourage contrarians. His salary ($7,600) should prevent most casual players from acquiring his services. Meanwhile, he’ll be in most of my lineups.
Luke Willson is our bargain bin feature of the week. He’s on just 0.2 percent of lineups and is priced like a kicker at $5,000. He hasn’t been a main feature in the Seahawks offense, as no tight end really has other than blocking. But the matchup couldn’t be better. Last week was the first time all season the Cowboys didn’t allow a touchdown to a tight end. Again, the risk is implied but luck could play in our favor.
Sample Roster
I’ll most likely make some changes to this roster as I’m not thrilled by the exposure I’m getting across the wide receiver position. But I love the value I’m getting at running back. I didn’t mention Sproles earlier. He’s finally cooled off and his ownership percentage reflects as much. I’m happy to grab him in in a high scoring game, at home, against a team that has struggled a bit when faced with pass-catching backs. The Vikings defense is a risk but Stafford struggles without Johnson and I’m hoping for a few turnovers that result in scores.
- QB – Matt Ryan ($8,700, 7.5%)
- RB – Bishop Sankey ($5,600, 1.9%)
- RB – Darren Sproles ($6,100, 3.4%)
- WR – Julio Jones ($9,000, 11.2%)
- WR – Alshon Jeffery ($7,700, 9.8%)
- WR – Justin Hunter ($5,900, 2.8%)
- TE – Rob Gronkowski ($7,600 4.5%)
- K – Patrcik Murray ($4,500, 6.2%)
- D/ST – Minnesota Vikings ($4,800, 1%)