Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
With fading comes great responsibility. Anytime we go against the crowd we enter a risk/reward proposition and become more susceptible to luck of all formats. So it’s here, at the dawn of Week 3, I will kindly remind that when you play in tournaments there will be weeks of chaos. The strategy is to pay the buy-in every week and eventually land the roster that pays dividends. We need to remember that tournaments are not a profitable investment… except when they are.
Last week Giovani Bernard was a hot buy and ended up on 21.2 percent of rosters. He finished Sunday with 25.4 points and proved that we need to pay mind to loss leaders. There was a reason why he was so heavily owned and he demonstrated that as he gashed the Falcons for 169 total yards, five receptions and one touchdown.
James Jones served up similar value. He may not have scored as many points as Jordy Nelson but he was on only 0.2 percent of rosters and cost $2,900 less. The golden ticket was having both in your lineup. That will always be the GPP way. We need to find that perfect balance between loss leaders and contrarian plays. And I don’t think it’s as simple as finding value in the terms of dollars-per-point. Mind you, DPP shouldn’t be ignored, but I think there is more, or at least equal, value in lineup diversity. Exposure is just as important as finding good bargain buys. As explained last week, low exposure + high scores = profit.
With that in mind, here are some trends heading into Week 3 based on Thursday lineups.
quarterbacks
You think DFS darlings respect the best defense in the game? Peyton Manning is on only 1.9 percent of teams. That ties Tony Romo. The fear is real, as it should be. If the Broncos offense got ravaged in New York by the Seahawks, what’s going to happen to them in Seattle?
But that was in February. It stands to reason that one of the best quarterbacks in the history of football would know how to adjust even against the best of defenses (and probably looks forward to revenge). Now, I can’t in good conscience come out and tell you to drop the $9,900 on Manning in the name of contrarianism. But you won’t see this kind of underexposure for the rest of the season. And that includes the players around him. There has never been a better time for a Manning/Thomas/Thomas stack while also preserving singularity in terms of exposure.
Moving forward, Drew Brees checks in as one of the highest owned at 14.6 percent. He registers as the must-fade of the week. I’ll say this again and again, I don’t mind paying up for quarterbacks, but the situation has to justify it. The game in New Orleans does not. The Saints are favored by 10 points and will have no problem covering the Vikings as they look for their first win. Brees won’t have much reason to throw. That’s not to say he won’t toss a couple of touchdowns. But he’s not likely to justify the fact that he’s the fifth most expensive player.
If you want to pay up for a quarterback go after Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford. Rodgers is costly and therefore shows up on only 6.2 percent of teams. Stafford will set you back $9,000 and is a bit more exposed at 7.7 percent. I expect both of these players to see more action as the crowd wises up to the fact that the Packers and Lions are set with the highest over/under of the week (52.5). That backfired last week as both Nick Foles and Andrew Luck left us wanting more, in spite of covering the over, but I have more faith in the NFC North to shoot things out with receivers and quarterbacks.
Our bargains, as usual, come in the form of misfits and castoffs. Romo, as mentioned, checks in with an exposure below two percent. He’s earned his fade but we all know that it’s just a matter of time before the Cowboys fade the run game. They travel to a tough environment in St. Louis on Sunday—perfect makings for a tailor-made Cowboys disaster. He’ll cost you just $7,600 and I don’t expect his ownership to grow much between now and Sunday.
Geno Smith is another preseason heartthrob for those waiting on QBs. He’s $200 less than Romo and one of the lowest owned players at 0.5 percent. The over/under of 45.5 points could promise better results, and Eric Decker status as questionable gives me worry, but the Bears defense concerns me little. We could see a shootout Monday night and I like Geno to find room with his legs.
Lastly, and I offer this with a warning of caution, E.J. Manuel is being ignored by all but 0.4 percent of teams (you thought I was going to say Joe Flacco, didn’t you?). Manuel is a fine bargain at $6,700 and benefits from his pass-catching backs. There’s never a time when the game script will work against us when we choose a Bills’ quarterback. If last week is any indication that he and Sammy Watkins are figuring each other out, then we might have a sneaky Week 3 stack on our hands.
running backs
Every passing week of our adolescent football season reminds me that discounting running backs is the best strategy. Wide receivers have a rap of inconstancy, but it’s ball carriers that can’t be trusted.
Two of the highest owned are DeMarco Murray (20.5%) and Darren Sproles (25.8). Pricing still hasn’t caught up to Sproles as we find him on the sale rack at $6,000. The secret is out; Chip Kelly intends to use Sproles until defenses figure out how to stop him. And then Chip will use someone else. In the meantime, it’s hard to ignore the enormous value little Sproles offers. But his exposure is a caution in tourneys.
Murray should be avoided in this contest. He’s been an absolute workhorse for the Cowboys and basically beat the Titans all by himself. But it’s just a matter of time before Jason Garrett and company fall into their old habits and throw it 50 times regardless if the scoreboard suggests a better strategy. Plus, he’s tied with Jamaal Charles as the fifth highest priced running back. Ignore the crowd on this one.
One of the early week sweethearts is Knile Davis. News of Charles’ high ankle sprain made Davis an immediate waiver wire priority, which seems to have translated to DFS as his ownership, currently, sits at 12.5 percent. But, in a cruel twist of fate, Charles practiced—however limited—on Thursday and broke hearts all over the fantasy universe. This is a situation to monitor though not for the reasons you might expect. If Charles is listed as questionable—or even better—as probable, you should snap up Davis at his cost of $7,000 no questions asked. But if Charles is ruled out, Davis will see his ownership percentage skyrocket. Our hope is that Charles’s attendance scares off would-be owners of Davis but then that ankle sprain shows its face and Davis gets the bulk of the carries. Risky, but rewarding.
Another notable hot fix is Ahmad Bradshaw. He’s linked to 13.4 percent of teams and after his performance last Monday night, it’s easy to see why. This week he gets a soft Jaguars defense and should do fine to cut them up should he see similar opportunities. Gracefully, his salary hasn’t caught up with his use and he’s a solid bargain at $5,200. That’s $1,000 less than Trent Richardson. But Richardson isn’t going away, as Pep Hamilton showed us, plus he’s on just one percent of teams. This a classic value vs. exposure conundrum. Either one of these players could score a touchdown or two. Both are affordable. And either one could have a huge game. That means that the cheapest one is the tournament play. But the unpopular one actually holds more value.
Montee Ball is serving hard time in Seattle and, like his quarterback, is being faded to the fullest. With the lowest exposure yet this season, he shows up on just 0.7 percent of teams. It’s tough to go against the grain when the grain has a history of dominance. But if anyone has a chance to succeed for the Broncos, it’s Ball. Perhaps Manning and Co. will study a little bit of Chargers tape and learn that dinking and dunking is the best way to beat the Seahawks. Ball could be a major beneficiary of dump-offs and check-downs, as the Broncos attempt to move their pieces between the big uglies, rather than tempt an unforgiving secondary.
But we’re looking for bargains both in exposure and cost when it comes to running backs. Jonathan Stewart jumps to the top of that list. He hosts a Steelers’ defense that has allowed the third most rushing yards through two weeks, and it’s not as if they’ve faced a clinic of pro bowlers and future hall of famers. We’re talking the likes of Terrence West, Justin Forsett and Bernard Pierce. There’s no reason, should DeAngelo Williams miss more time, that Stewart won’t find plenty of opportunity and success against this group. His price of $5,100 makes it worth finding out.
Next is Zac Stacy. It seems the Cowboys defense is a little better than we originally thought. But that’s relative to how bad we expected them to be. They’re still horrible and might be missing their current best player in Rolando McClain. Stacy’s price ($7,500) could be more accommodating but his matchup couldn’t be. And the fact that he’s on just 2.3 percent of rosters means he’ll end up on 100 percent of mine.
wide receivers
As we’ve already learned, DFS nation is in full on Broncos fade mode. That carries all the way through to wide receivers and tight ends. Demaryius Thomas is finding a home on just 1.6 percent of teams. Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker are on just 2.2 percent. Julius Thomas is enjoying the most sunlight at 3.8 percent. People are afraid of the Seahawks. I don’t blame them. As I’ve noted, the only player that I’d play for the Broncos is Ball. But if you are going to swing for the fences, rock that Manning/Thomas/Thomas stack without fear. Just mind your bankroll in the process.
Any guesses as to who the most popular receiver is this week? Of course it’s Calvin Johnson, who is already checking in at 27.5 percent. And there’s no reason to fade him. Make room in your salary cap if you can.
If you can’t, any guesses as to who is No. 2? Of course it’s Jordy Nelson. There’s just something about a guy that collects nine catches for 209 yards and touchdown that gets us all hot and bothered. Tie him to a stud quarterback against a ball-gawking secondary in the highest over/under of the week and you have the hottest ticket in town. Buy if you must.
But if you do buy one or both of these players, you must also find a few underexposed bargains to fulfill your rosters. Brian Quick is one alternative that 6.6 percent of players have turned to. It’s a logical reaction to both price ($5,200) and matchup. Still, we could do better from a contrarian perspective.
Kelvin Benjamin is someone I’m ready to double-down on. He represents a medium-to-low cost that has dropped $100 since last week. His current exposure is hovering around three percent.
In that same price range is Brandin Cooks. It’s interesting how much he has cooled off since Week 1, though I do expect to see his exposure of five percent see a massive increase by Sunday. But even if I can’t recommend Brees, I can faithfully say that Cooks should see a gaggle of targets and maybe even find the end zone for the second time in his career.
Last but not least we have everyone’s favorite, Torrey Smith. Smith has gone from a contrarian tournament play to a true contrarian tournament play. Both his salary ($5,200) and his exposure (1.4%) set him up as a favorable grain cutter. We see Flacco let a couple of deep balls rip in his direction every game. I don’t want to be the one to punch the “he’s due” clock, but eventually, they are going to connect. The Browns have allowed more yards through the air than all but four other teams. Sure, we should be a little worried about Joe Haden shadowing Smith (Torrey). Or maybe he’ll shadow Smith (Steve, Sr.). Either way, they’re a road favorite in this one and I’m hopeful Brian Hoyer and company will keep things competitive.
Tight Ends
As you might expect, Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates enter Sunday as the most popular plays. It’s hard to ignore Graham but I’m fully convinced you can fade Gates, even at a reasonable salary of $6,000.
Delanie Walker is another one that has found early success and therefore finds early exposure. His ownership percentage of 6.1 isn’t fade-level but his fluky touchdowns and inaccurate quarterback are. He now costs more than Dennis Pitta with a tougher matchup in a far less reliable situation.
There are three tight ends this week that have exception value and two of them have exceptional exposure.
The first is Jared Cook. I know the tearful memories his name might stir in the heads and hearts of many a fantasy player, but his rock bottom salary of $5,200 plays beautifully with his topnotch matchup against the Cowboys at home. Further, the fact that he has caused so much heartbreak keeps his exposure lower than 1.5 percent. I like that in a tournament.
Next we have the formidable Travis Kelce. He was the benefactor of unprecedented preseason love and so far has proven that he’s a rookie. I’d like to thank all of the people that drove his stock up and are now driving it down. He prices out as a cheap kicker but might be the Chiefs’ best option in the passing game. As of Thursday night he exists on only 2.3 percent of rosters. For $4,900, it’s hard to say no.
Finally, we have Pitta. It would be wrong of me to ignore a guy that was so viciously attacked by vultures on a fateful Thursday night just more than a week ago this time. The Browns were exposed by Graham and Brees, and even if that’s an extreme, it’s good news for those of us that still believe Pitta is a worthwhile investment in Week 3. I wouldn’t play both Smith and Pitta in this contest. In fact, playing either is a tough sell. But in the world of contrarianism, each of these players offers the talent and opportunity that we crave, minus the groupthink we want to avoid.
Example Lineup
It goes without saying that this is just an example lineup, and I reserve the right to tinker with it until five minutes before kickoff. I’m not thrilled with the exposure I’m inheriting with this roster but it does balance loss leaders with some upside contrarian plays.
- QB – Matthew Stafford - ($9,000, 7.7%)
- RB – Jonathan Stewart - ($5,100, 0.6%)
- RB – Knile Davis - ($7,000, 12.5%)
- WR – Calvin Johnson - ($9,000, 27.5%)
- WR – Jordy Nelson - ($8,600, 20.6%)
- WR – Brandin Cooks - ($6,300, 5%)
- TE – Niles Paul - ($5,000, 9%)
- K – Graham Gano - ($5,300, 1.1%)
- D/ST – New Orleans Saints - ($4,600, 10.4%)
