It’s through the pure lens of hindsight that we are able to extrapolate context and apply it to content, all in the name of projections and future dominance. Simply stated, history is the foundation by which all average draft positions are established. And it is on that foundation that we will build our rosters and hope they withstand a 16 week battle so the purse and pride is ours alone.
Eddie Lacy is the foundation of the Green Bay Packers ground attack and is currently being drafted 6th overall (8th in PPR). Lacy finished just below Adrian Peterson as the 7th highest scoring running back after a tremendous rookie campaign, in which he clobbered his way to 1,435 total yards and 11 touchdowns. For perspective, it was the 7th best effort by a rookie RB in the last 10 years.
It’s easy to make a case for Fat Eddie as a first round draft pick (note that he’s not actually fat). He's not a fast player by any stretch but he did average 4.1 yards-per-carrry. This tells us is that what he lacks in elite speed he more than makes up for with power and mass. But he’s also deceptively quick. He may not have the turn-and-burn explosiveness of someone like LeSean McCoy, but he has a history of making defenders look foolish.
Furthermore, he finished with the fourth most carries among all running backs but only fumbled twice. Add another 35 catches to mix to bring his total touches to 319 and it’s reasonable to suggest that he’s in no danger of a reduced role going into 2014. In fact, early reports suggest that he might actually see even more time on the field. All of this while being attached to one of the best offenses in the league. The Packers finished as the third highest scoring team even with their star quarterback sidelined for seven straight weeks.
Yes, Eddie Lacy has the opportunity and potential to be one of 2014’s best. Even with a limited sample size he is projected to be the fifth highest scoring running back.
However, it’s my fiduciary duty to advise you against using your first overall selection on the Beast in the Bay and instead invest in something a little more guaranteed.
A Lesson In History
History, when ignored, has a tendency to repeat itself.
You may recall that at this time last year there was another product of Alabama that was being drafted in the first round—right about where Lacy is being drafted now. I’m referring to Trent Richardson, of course, who was selected eighth overall. If you were one of the unlucky suitors that burned the most important pick of the draft on Richardson then you most likely had a tough time rebuilding and making the playoffs. Make no mistake about it, the first round is that big of a deal. And it’s very possible that Lacy is actually T-Rich 2.0.
Before I get into whether it’s even fair to compare the two philosophically, let’s compare their metrics. Jumping over to playerprofile.com, which is a nifty site that combines all metrics onto one page, we learn that Richardson actually beats Lacy in just about every category. He is straight up faster, has a better speed score, and even clocks a better body mass index despite having a history of injuries. They weigh roughly the same and played in the same system at college. We don’t have an agility score for Richardson, a metric that a lot of analysts swear to be a strong indication of future success. We do have one for Lacy (11.77) and it screams plodder.
But these are “just metrics” and we already know that Richardson was held to higher expectations as evidence by the fact that he got drafted in the first round. Their running styles are similar, as it generally goes for running backs of similar size and speed, and for every Lacy highlight (such the one linked to earlier) there’s an equal Richardson highlight.
Their rookie seasons were almost identical. Richardson finished with 1,317 total yards and 12 touchdowns, or 5.8 fewer fantasy points than Lacy’s rookie season, which was good enough for the 10th best rookie performance in the last 10 years (Doug Martin and Alfred Morris hold positions one and two). While Richardson’s yards-per-carry fell short of Lacy’s (3.6), he was much better as receiver collecting 367 yards on 51 receptions. It goes without saying that the better a running back is as a receiver, the more valuable he becomes to your team.
All in all, the nuts and bolts of these two running backs are identical. So is it fair to forecast Lacy to mirror Richardson’s sophomore crash and burn?
Sort of. The point of this exercise is to find common ingredients and use them to predict future flavor profiles. These are both running backs out of Alabama. They’re similar in size and metrics. They both play on offenses that heavily favor the pass. Obviously, Lacy isn’t going to get traded in Week 3. And I don’t think he’ll finish outside of the top-30 like Richardson did or even outside the top-20. But I think anyone investing in Lacy needs to be well aware that his production could be more touchdown dependent, which is a dangerous ingredient for a fantasy football roster, especially considering his price.
Keep in mind that when Aaron Rodgers is healthy this offense runs through him and his receivers, not Lacy. Lacy is a supplement—a power back that his team needs in order to have some playoff success. Not necessarily a major fantasy asset. Notice the discrepancy in the number of red zone looks Lacy had with and without Rodgers. It’s no secret that with Rodgers in the lineup Lacy’s production falters.
| Stat | With Rodgers | Without Rodgers | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per Game | Season Pace | Per Game | Season Pace | |
| Games | 8 | 7 | ||
| Fantasy Points | 14 | 224 | 16.4 | 262 |
| Targets | 2.1 | 34 | 3.9 | 62 |
| Receptions | 1.8 | 28 | 3 | 48 |
| Rec Yards | 11.6 | 186 | 23.4 | 375 |
| Rec TDs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The natural inclination of fantasy owners is to assume that Green Bay’s power offense will lead to more touchdowns for Lacy, which is certainly one of the things that could happen and should happen. But as we’ve already detailed, Rodgers is inclined to pass and isn’t all that bad at running the ball himself. Furthermore, Lacy’s backup, James Starks, might actually be a better running back. I won’t go as far as predicting that he’ll cut into a significant amount of Lacy’s playing time, but there’s a chance that he could cut into a significant amount of Lacy’s playing time should Lacy prove to be ineffective or breakdown after constantly running into contact.
All of this isn't to say that you shouldn't draft Lacy. Barring injury, he may very well finish as a top-10 running back. But if you're looking to pair safety with upside, you should probably fade him. 2013 is likely close to his ceiling and history doesn't favor him to repeat it. The Historical Data Dominator App teaches us that it had been four years since the last Green Bay running back to finish in the top-10. And before Ryan Grant accomplished that feat in 2009, you have to go all the way back to 2003 when Ahman Green edged LaDainian Tomlinson to finish as the second.
When you're on the clock this August you have to ask yourself, how likely is it that Lacy comes close to a 1500/11 clip for a second straight season? At his current price it may not be worth finding out. Let someone else take a chance on Fat Eddie (note, again, that he’s not actually fat).
So Who Should You Draft Instead?
This question isn’t as much about who as it is about what. The answer is a wide receiver.
Basically, if you’re in the position to draft Lacy it’s because the big four are gone: LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson (in that order for me). Hopefully one of the big five receivers are still available to you: Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and A.J. Green (in that order for me). You could even throw in Jordy Nelson or Brandon Marshall (I would actually prefer Nelson to Green/Marshall and have them ranked as such).
I’m not advocating a Zero-RB strategy either. I think it’s important to have balance. So if you’d prefer a running back, I would take Montee Ball or Arian Foster over Lacy every time. Oh, and there’s always Marshawn Lynch. If none of these options are available, then WR/WR is your best bet (unless you feel comfortable with the likes of Gio Bernard or DeMarco Murray, which is perfectly acceptable).
discount double check
As a bonus I’m going offer one option at running back that’s very similar to Eddie Lacy and available a full four rounds later.
This particular candidate is of similar size and speed, had more yards receiving, with 18 more receptions, and finished just 24 total points shy of Lacy in PPR leagues—all while playing on only 48.5 percent of snaps (vs Lacy’s 64.6 percent). They also play in the same division so strength of schedule is somewhat relative.
You guessed it, Joique Bell.
Bell is more agile and a better pass-catcher at a greatly reduced cost. The only thing he doesn’t have in comparison to Lacy is opportunity. He may be tucked behind Reggie Bush on the depth chart, but the early word out of Detroit is that offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi intends to use both backs the way he used Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles. Bell equals Thomas; Bush equals Sproles.
Signs are pointing up for Bell to at least earn a bigger workload. And I’m not one to gamble on injuries but Bush’s knack for being nicked up certainly suggests that Bell is worth every bit of his (late) fifth round ADP.
