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JOHNNIE WALKER BLUE LABEL (TOP SHELF PLAYS)
Russell Wilson ($8,400) - The Panthers are a dream matchup for the red hot Wilson. Carolina comes into this game allowing averages of 298.5 passing yards, and 2.5 TDs to QBs in their last four games. They’ve also allowed Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, and Aaron Rodgers to eclipse 20 yards rushing against them in each of their last three. While this is a steep price to pay for Wilson, he’s proven capable of exploiting great matchups against Washington (37.24 fantasy points) and St. Louis (43.12 fantasy points) in two of his last three games. He’s in play for both tourneys and cash games this week.
Tony Romo ($7,400) - If you don’t want to pay up for Luck, Rodgers, or Wilson, Romo should be able to approximate their production at a modest discount. It’s been five weeks since Washington held an opposing QB to less than two passing TDs in a game. Romo leads the league in completion percentage (69.2%), and is on a five game multi-TD streak of his own. My only fear is the Cowboys will be in position to take their foot off the gas early against a Colt McCoy led offense.
Marshawn Lynch ($7,100) - Lynch is the fourth most expensive RB on DraftKings, but he’ll provide you some salary cap relief compared to the rest of the position’s top tier. Beast Mode has a realistic shot to lead all RBs in scoring this week against a Carolina defense that literally cannot stop any RB. Here’s what backup RBs have accomplished vs. the Panthers in the past few weeks: LaGarrette Blount - 10-118-1, Lorenzo Taliaferro - 15-58-1, Jeremy Hill - 8-22-1, James Starks - 7-36-1. Come to think of it, this may not be a bad week to take a flier on Robert Turbin at the minimum.
Jamaal Charles ($6,700) - After receiving 24 total touches in a nice road win at San Diego last week, I’m a little surprised to see Charles remain so affordable on DraftKings. This week’s matchup against St. Louis is not a good one, but with KC favored by nearly a TD at home, Charles should be buoyed by favorable game script. As long as he’s healthy and being utilized properly by Andy Reid (which he now appears to be), there are few RBs I’d rather have in my lineups from week to week. The relatively low price is gravy.
Jordy Nelson ($7,800) - By now you know the deal with Jordy - he’s a target hog who plays with the most efficient QB on the planet. It feels like there was no last time a Rodgers-Nelson stack didn’t work out. Vegas projects Green Bay to score about 27 points in this game, New Orleans has let up the second most fantasy PPG to opposing WRs, and Jordy catches a league leading 32.6% of his team’s receptions. I wouldn’t shy away from using teammates Randall Cobb ($7,500) and/or Davante Adams ($3,500) in this one either.
Dez Bryant ($6,900) - I fully expect Bryant to drink from the skulls of Washington’s cornerbacks and salt the earth with their remains on Monday Night Football. Not a single CB on Washington’s roster has received a positive coverage grade from Pro Football Focus. There’s simply no one (or two) they can throw at Dez to prevent the carnage. Bryant’s target share (32.55%) is quickly approaching Jordy territory (33.8%), and Dallas is projected to score 30 points this week. Get ready for a blood bath.
Rob Gronkowski ($5,900) - Gronk is the easy call for the Blue Label tier this week. Vegas sees four TDs in this game for the Pats, and Gronkowski has accounted for 29% of New England's receiving TDs. A Gronk Spike seems like a mortal lock against the Bears, who allowed a pair of TDs to Greg Olsen back in Week 5.
Miami Defense ($3,300) - Blake Bortles has thrown at least two interceptions in four out of his five appearances. He’s also taking about three sacks per game. The Jaguars have been the gift that keeps on giving to opposing defenses all season long. They somehow managed to give up eight fantasy points to Cleveland last week in an 18 point win. It’s silly to fade any defense playing against them at this point.
JACK DANIELS (MODERATELY PRICED PLAYS)
Carson Palmer ($6,500) - Between the bye week and Eli Manning’s Week 6 dud, it’s easy to forget the Eagles allowed a combined 802 passing yards and six TDs in two games against Kirk Cousins and Austin Davis. Palmer has posted 17 fantasy points in each of his two games since returning from injury, and only needs to perform slightly better than that in an exploitable home matchup to pay off his modest salary.
Nick Foles ($6,300) - I would also consider Mike Glennon ($6,400) and Ryan Tannehill ($6,700) at this price point, but Foles gets the slight edge as the cheapest option of the three. With an extra week to prepare, I trust Chip Kelly will have the Eagles ready for Arizona, who have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. The Cardinals have been victimized by Peyton Manning (understandable) and Kirk Cousins (not so much) in recent weeks, and the Vegas total for this game is fairly high (48 points). For what it’s worth, Foles also faced Arizona coming off a bye week last season, and he delivered a 233-3-0 line in a 24-21 Eagles win.
LeVeon Bell ($6,300) - Somehow Bell has been priced out of the Blue Label tier, despite piling up eight receptions, 145 total yards, and a TD vs. Houston last week. The matchup against Indianapolis appears neutral on the surface, but the Colts trail only Atlanta in rushing TDs allowed to RBs (7), and have let up 4.49 YPA. Indy’s tendency to blow teams out has mitigated the damage done by opposing RBs. While they could very well smoke Pittsburgh on the road, the Colts are only favored by three, and Bell remains involved as a receiver even when the Steelers are in catch up mode.
Justin Forsett ($5,100) - Forsett’s journey to fantasy relevance began in Week 1, when he totaled 19.4 fantasy points against the same Bengals team he faces again this week. Cincinnati is advertised as having a tough defense, but they’ve let up the 10th most fantasy PPG to opposing RBs, and were just gashed for 5.5 YPA by Trent Richardson. Forsett is breaking big plays every week (his seven runs of 15+ yards are third best among RBs), and he’s being used as a workhorse at this point (23 carries last week). He’s the PPR RB7, yet he’s priced on DraftKings as the RB15. Until the cost catches up to the production, you have to continue rolling him out there.
Jerick McKinnon ($4,900) - The few paragraphs I wrote about Jerick McKinnon in this preseason round table will likely go down as my best analysis of 2014. I’ve been in love with McKinnon since the scouting combine, own him in every redraft league, and have been waiting for a matchup like this week’s with Tampa Bay, for the rookie from Georgia Southern to knock fantasy football on its ear. The Bucs allow the fourth most fantasy PPG to opposing RBs, and McKinnon trails only Chris Ivory for the league lead in yards after contact per attempt. Fire him up in both cash games and GPPs.
Joique Bell ($4,800) - It’s simply bad process not to roster the RB starting against the Falcons. Atlanta allows 13.6% more fantasy PPG to RBs than the next closest team. Bell is the PPR RB9 since he returned from a concussion two weeks ago, and he’s barely priced inside the Top-20. Reggie Bush didn't practice Thursday, and if he can’t go, Bell becomes the “don’t overthink it” play of the week.
Sammy Watkins ($5,700) - Since Kyle Orton came to town, Watkins is the PPR WR10 - and that’s counting the Bills’ Week 6 loss to New England, in which Darrelle Revis erased him from the game plan (2-27 on 3 targets). Watkins’ 24.11% target share is slowly creeping into the 28% range that’s historically been a sweet spot for elite fantasy production. I expect him to abuse an awful New York secondary that’s been burned by Jordy Nelson (9-209-1), Alshon Jeffery (8-105), Golden Tate (8-116), and Demaryius Thomas (10-124-1) this season.
Jeremy Maclin ($5,500) - Between a two catch, 16 yard performance in the Eagles’ Week 6 blowout win over the Giants and the subsequent bye week (out of sight, out of mind), I expect Maclin to be under-owned. The poor performance against New York can be written off to unfavorable game script. It was the only week this season Maclin didn’t receive double digit targets, and he’s scored a TD in four of his other five games. Maclin will likely see plenty of Patrick Peterson in coverage this week, which isn’t as bad as it sounds. Peterson has been beaten for four TDs already this season.
Michael Floyd ($4,900) - Floyd has posted exactly 47 yards and one TD in both games since Carson Palmer’s return, but those numbers should represent his floor this week. Philadelphia’s outside CBs Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher have been victimized all season, which should allow Floyd (who’s caught all six of his catchable targets of 20 yards or more) to get loose for a splash play or two.
Owen Daniels ($4,100) - Cincinnati has overtaken Dallas as the matchup dujour for opposing TEs. The Bengals allow the most receiving yards to the position, and have let up four TE touchdowns in the last three games. Since taking over for Dennis Pitta in Week 4, Daniels is the PPR TE8. He’s coming off a 6-58-1 game vs. Atlanta, and nearly had a TD in Week 6 against Tampa Bay. Had he managed to reel that one in, he'd be fetching a higher asking price.
Friday Update: It looks like Owen Daniels will be out 2-4 weeks, leaving rookie Crockett Gilmore to start at TE for the Ravens. Gilmore is 6'6'', 260 lbs., so he can theoretically be used in the red zone, where the Ravens have thrown to their TE on 32.5% of their pass plays. If you're too risk averse to take a flier on Crockett, consider Charles Clay ($3,500) who finally looks healthy, and has a great matchup vs. the Jags. Just make sure you get Daniels out of your lineups.
Dallas Defense ($3,000) - I would start the Cowboys Cheerleaders against Colt McCoy.
LIMOUSINE LIQUOR (DIRT CHEAP PLAYS)
Teddy Bridgewater ($5,100) - Bridgewater has been positively rotten in his last two games (1:5 TD:INT), but relief is on the way in the form of the Bucs, who give up the most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs. We’re talking about a pass defense that allowed a 70% completion rate, 230 yards, and two TDs to Derek Anderson back in Week 1, and has somehow gotten worse since. Priced just above the QB minimum, Bridgewater only needs about 15 points to return value in tournaments. The only QB to score under 15 fantasy points against Tampa Bay this season was Austin Davis back in Week 2.
Ben Tate ($4,600) - Tate’s crappy performance (16-36-0) in a cream puff matchup with the Jags took a blowtorch to my best tournament lineup last week, but I won’t let my emotions get the best of me. It’s a definite concern that Cleveland sputtered on the ground in their first game without injured center Alex Mack (PFF’s third rated run blocking center). However, Oakland is the best RB matchup this side of Atlanta, and only DeMarco Murray has more carries than Tate’s 63 over the last three weeks. With the Browns playing at home, and favored by seven points, I’m confident Tate is a screaming value at this price.
Anthony Dixon ($3,300) - If we’re reading tea leaves, it sure seems like Dixon is the Bills RB to own this week. The Jets are famous for their stout run defense, but they’ve been shredded by Branden Oliver (182 total yards, 2 TDs) and Ronnie Hillman (24-100) in their last two games. I don’t exactly love Dixon, but 15 carries plus goal line work seems likely at this point, and you won’t find any other RBs with a similar projected workload available this close to minimum salary.
Cordarrelle Patterson ($3,300) - I’ve already detailed how bad Tampa Bay has been against the pass, so I’ll begrudgingly endorse Patterson as a worthwhile GPP flier. Nothing Cordarrelle has done this year inspires much confidence a big game is on the way, but it’s a near lock a Minnesota wide receiver will exceed value in this matchup. Greg Jennings ($4,000) and Jarius Wright ($3,500) are both viable options, but in tournament play, give me the guy with the other worldly athleticism, who also happens to be the cheapest option.
Terrance Williams ($4,700) - Another GPP only play, Williams will find himself in favorable coverage against bad cornerbacks for the entirety of Monday Night Football. Very quietly, the only wide receiver with more TDs than Williams’ six this season is Randall Cobb (8). Williams may not be seeing much volume, but in a game with a 50 point over/under, I’ll gladly take a chance on a receiver turning 18.75% of his targets into TDs.
Jordan Reed ($4,000) - Larry Donnell and Daniel Fells (combined 117 yards, 1 TD) proved last week that “play your TEs against Dallas” was only on temporary hiatus. Colt McCoy starting at QB is less than ideal, but Reed tied Pierre Garcon for the team lead with four targets after McCoy entered last week’s game. In two games since returning from injury, Reed’s 17 targets tie him for second among TEs. You could do worse for $4,000 than a talented TE in a great matchup, who you know will be heavily involved in the game plan.
Zach Ertz ($3,200) - Ertz is a tourney only play thanks to his limited usage, but it’s worth noting every starting tight end not named Derek Carrier or Mychal Rivera has gotten the better of Arizona this season. I’m fully expecting a shootout between the Eagles and Cardinals, which should propel Ertz to one his best games of the season, even if he only maintains his suspect 13.14% target share.
RUBBING ALCOHOL (MINIMUM PLAYS)
Theo Riddick ($3,000) - The last time Reggie Bush sat out, Riddick looked like the best player on the Detroit offense (5-75-1 as a receiver, including a 41 yard catch & run). Unfortunately he didn’t make it to the second half of the Lions Week 6 game against the Vikings due to a hamstring injury. If Reggie Bush can’t practice again on Friday, Riddick is a must play in GPPs, facing the worst run defense in the world at minimum salary.
Travaris Cadet ($3,000) - Cadet has either caught six passes, or scored a TD in three straight games, so he already had the makings of a decent RB punt play on DraftKings (full PPR) this week. Now that we know Pierre Thomas will miss the next 2-3 weeks, Cadet will be even more heavily involved in the pass game. GB-NO is the top game to invest in this weekend, and Cadet figures to play a prominent role.
Justin Hunter ($3,100) - Hunter isn’t quite a minimum salary play, but he’s close enough (and deservedly so). I’m willing to give him one last shot, at home in a plus matchup with the Texans. Titans rookie Zach Mettenberger is a big, strong armed QB who can drill the deep out. Many scouts considered him a second round talent who only slipped in the draft due to character and injury concerns. At best, Mettenberger is a perfect fit in Ken Whisenhunt’s vertical attack, and Hunter is the main beneficiary. At worst, Mettenberger stinks and Hunter gets an opportunity to pad his stats in garbage time.
Robert Woods ($3,000) - I took a flier on Woods last week because I liked his matchup in the slot with Vikings’ CB Captain Munnerlyn. It didn’t work out, but I’m going back to the well with Woods, who will see plenty of Kyle Wilson this week. QBs have a 130.8 rating when throwing at Wilson in slot coverage this season. A four catch, 50 yard stat line would pay off Woods’ minimum price tag, and there’s room for a TD against the Jets, who rank in the bottom 10 in TDs allowed to WRs.