JOHNNIE WALKER BLUE LABEL (TOP SHELF PLAYS)
Matt Ryan ($8,600) - I’m certainly not fading Peyton Manning ($9,400) against the Jets, but I’ll be riding with Ryan in more lineups this week. Despite playing three out of five games on the road (where he’s been markedly less efficient throughout his career), Ryan ranks fifth at QB in fantasy points per game. The Bears come into this contest allowing the sixth most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Ryan is averaging 367 passing yards and three TDs per game in his two home starts this season, and the over/under in this game is set at 53.5 points. The setup is there for Ryan to lead all QBs in scoring this week.
Matt Forte ($8,800) - Forte’s salary is up $1,000 from last week, but he’s a worthy investment in a dream matchup with the Falcons. Atlanta has let up nine TDs to RBs through five games - nearly twice as many as the next worst team. The Falcons have also been generous through the air to RBs, which is almost unfair given Forte’s receiving prowess (7.2 receptions, 59 receiving yards per game). Opposing backs are averaging 6.2 receptions and 59.6 receiving yards per game against the Falcons. They even let up a pair of catches to Andre Williams last week, which is remarkable considering his hands have been surgically transplanted with cinder blocks slathered in bacon grease. On DraftKings (full PPR scoring) it barely matters that Forte has only scored once this season. If any RB is going to break the 30 point mark this week, it will either be Forte or this next guy.
Marshawn Lynch ($8,900) - The Cowboys are currently the 12th best defense at limiting fantasy points to opposing RBs - a ranking which is certain to decline after they face off with Lynch in Seattle this week. Dallas was exposed by Arian Foster last Sunday to the tune of 157 yards and two TDs on 23 carries. On the season, they’ve let up 5.62 YPA, but game flow mitigated the fantasy damage in lopsided wins against Tennessee and New Orleans. Something tells me we don’t need to worry about the Cowboys blowing out the Seahawks in Seattle. Vegas has the Sea Chickens as 8 point favorites, which points to increased carries late in the game for Lynch, who has handled 40.8% of the team’s total touches this season (seventh best at RB), and scored more fantasy points per snap than any RB besides Branden Oliver (more on him in a moment).
Julio Jones ($8,400) - Matty Ice-Julio is my preferred QB-WR stack this week. Jones has seen 38% of the WR/TE targets in Atlanta this year, while the next closest receiver (Roddy White) has seen just 22%. Perhaps more impressively, Julio has accounted for 15.6% of his team’s total touches this season, which ranks behind only Emmanuel Sanders (17.6%) and Jordy Nelson (16%) among WRs. Like Ryan, Jones enjoys home cooking. He’s averaging eight receptions, 138.5 receiving yards, and one TD in the team’s two home games this season. Bears rookie CB Kyle Fuller generated some buzz in the early going, but has received negative pass coverage grades (per Pro Football Focus) the last two weeks. Chicago will have no answer for Julio in this game.
Antonio Brown ($7,900) - Brown roasted Cleveland back in Week 1 for 116 yards and a TD, and totaled at least eight catches, and 87 yards in each game against them last season. All of those performances came with the Browns’ top corner, Joe Haden, in pass coverage. This week Haden (who’s actually been awful this year) is likely out with a hip injury, leaving Buster Skrine and rookie Justin Gilbert with the task of covering the most consistent fantasy receiver in the game. QBs have a passer rating of 147.7 when throwing at Skrine this season, and a 105.1 rating when throwing at Gilbert, so good luck with that. And even if Haden plays, Brown clearly has his number.
Julius Thomas ($6,700) - The Jets’ TE defense is softer than baby’s breath lately. They’ve let up five TDs to the position in their last three games. Julius Thomas has scored seven TDs in four games this season. Getting him in your lineups this week does not require higher math. Need more stats? Thomas leads all tight ends in red zone targets, and trails only Antonio Gates in red zone TD conversion rate. A 20 point game from your tight end is a lot to ask for, but Thomas is averaging over 21 PPG on DraftKings. Don’t be afraid to pay the premium.
JACK DANIELS (MODERATELY PRICED PLAYS)
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,500) - Roethlisberger’s salary takes a $900 dip this week after he disappointed in a choice matchup with Jacksonville in Week 5. I’m happy to take the discount against a Browns team he racked up 365 passing yards against in Week 1. Vegas has the over/under in this game set at a moderately high 47 points, and given offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s propensity for calling pass plays from inside the five yard line this season (the Steelers have passed on five out of seven opportunities), Roethlisberger has three TD upside in this game. Keep in mind this is the same Browns defense that allowed 194 passing yards and two TDs to Chaz Whitehurst in just over two quarters last week.
Carson Palmer ($6,800) - Betting on an injured Calvin Johnson didn’t work out so well for me last week, but I won’t let that stop me from throwing Carson Palmer in some GPP lineups if it looks like he’ll be active. What did work out very well for me last week was recommending Russell Wilson against the deplorable Washington secondary that faces the Cardinals this week in Arizona. Before you remind me Wilson did most of his damage with his legs, consider that he completed 75% of his pass attempts, and averaged over 11 YPA (for context Philip Rivers leads the league with 9.2 YPA this season). Chances are Palmer won’t be heavily owned due to the injury risk, so he’s a good candidate to increase your lineup uniqueness in large tourneys. Just keep an eye on the injury report, and cross your fingers his shoulder can make it through the game. Also, if Palmer does play, I’d feel great about taking a flier on John Brown (who’s scored all three of his TDs at University of Phoenix Stadium) for $4,000.
LeSean McCoy ($6,000) - We finally get the price correction on LeSean McCoy we’ve been looking for. His price plummeted $1,800 from last week, thanks to yet another underwhelming performance. McCoy has been bad this year to be certain - he’s forced less missed tackles than Bobby Rainey despite logging twice as many rushing attempts. But with a palatable price tag, and a decent matchup (the Giants allow the 10th most fantasy points to opposing RBs), I’m buying this week. Shady is seeing 43.2% of his team’s total touches - a higher rate than Le’Veon Bell and Marshawn Lynch to name a few. With starting tackle Lane Johnson back from injury last week, McCoy posted his highest yardage total of the season, and was reincorporated in the passing game (four targets). If he’s trusted with another 28 touches in this game, I like him to reach at least 20 fantasy points.
Ben Tate ($5,500) - I’m a week late on recommending Ben Tate, but hopefully not a dollar short. We got some clarity on Cleveland’s backfield plans when Tate returned and received the lion’s share of the carries against the Titans last week. The Browns have run the ball on 48% of their offensive plays this season, eighth most in the NFL, so we can trust Tate (22 carries in a game Cleveland was trailing the entire way) will continue to receive a heavy workload. Cleveland’s running game clobbered the Steelers back in Week 1. Tate ran for 6.1 YPA vs. Pittsburgh before leaving with a knee injury. In his place, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell combined for 21 carries, 132 rushing yards, and two TDs. Pittsburgh ranks as the ninth best team at limiting fantasy points to RBs, but the favorable rank is largely due to recent matchups with Tampa Bay and Jacksonville’s dreadful running games. Tate is a screaming value at this price.
Branden Oliver ($5,500) - Fading everyone’s shiny new toy is usually a good idea in DFS, but Oliver’s matchup against the Raiders can’t be ignored. Darren Sproles with more power chewed up the Jets’ top ranked rush defense last week, and now gets to face a team that’s been abused by Chris Ivory, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, and Lamar Miller this season. The Chargers run the ball on 49% of their offensive plays, the sixth highest percentage in the league, and are favored to win by a TD in Oakland. The setup is there for a massive workload for Oliver in this game.
Dez Bryant ($6,600) - I love rostering elite players with difficult matchups in large GPPs. When doing so comes with a discount, all the better. Bryant’s price is down a whopping $1,200, coming off a 23.5 fantasy point performance at Houston. Seattle hasn’t been dominant against WRs this season, ranking as the 12th best team at limiting fantasy points to the position. A glance at Bryant’s splits against top 12 pass defenses in his career shows the effect on his fantasy performance is negligible - in fact, he’s been better against stiffer competition. Dez has averaged 14.58 standard fantasy points per game against top 12 pass defenses vs. 13.32 against all other opponents. The overcorrection to his price is baffling - make sure you exploit it.
Alshon Jeffery ($6,500) - In the last three weeks, Jeffery has received more looks than any other Bears receiver, out-targeting Brandon Marshall 27-17. Over the same span, Jeffery ranks as the sixth best PPR WR, averaging 18.86 fantasy points per game. As I mentioned earlier, Atlanta-Chicago has the highest over/under of the week. With the Falcons laying only three points, that leaves 25.25 points for Chicago. Bears WRs account for 2.4 TDs per game, so you definitely want their best one in your lineup, and right now that’s Jeffery. Brandon Marshall also represents great value at $6,300. He’s supposedly healthy, and Marc Trestman says more targets are in store.
Vincent Jackson ($5,700) - The Ravens pass defense has yielded big PPR games to A.J Green (6-131-1), Antonio Brown (7-90), Andrew Hawkins (7-87), Kelvin Benjamin (5-76-1), and T.Y. Hilton (9-90). Guess who’s up next? Joe Flacco (who you may want to consider at $6,700 this week) should have no trouble putting up points on Tampa Bay, who have allowed the second most passing yards in the league. If the Bucs are going to keep up (Vegas has them as a three point dog), it won’t be because their dismal running game made a dent in Baltimore’s sixth ranked run stopping unit. Mike Glennon will have to air it out, meaning Jackson could approach the 12 targets he received last week against the Saints. If Mike Evans makes a surprising return, I would temper expectations just a bit, but still wouldn’t hesitate to use Jackson.
Eddie Royal ($5,500) - I hate Eddie Royal. I hated him last week when I recommended you play him against the Jets, and I hate him even more now that he made me look silly by catching 3 passes for 40 yards in that game. I also hate that I’m going back to the well and recommending him for a second straight week. But Carlos Rogers covers the slot for Oakland, and he’s let up the fourth most yards per snap in slot coverage of any cornerback in the league. If Royal goes out and plays like Eddie Royal again this week, I promise you’ve seen the last of him in this column.
Delanie Walker ($5,300) - Walker currently ranks as the number five tight end in PPR leagues, and this week he faces the Jaguars, who have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to the position. Tight end fantasy production has been as volatile as usual this season, so it’s best to rely on heavily targeted options, especially in cash games. Walker, the fifth most targeted tight end in the league, should be able to exploit a defense that’s allowed a tight end to score a TD in every game but one this season.
Greg Olsen ($5,700) - Sticking with the theme of chasing targets, Olsen is a nice play at the Bengals this week. Olsen is the third most targeted tight end this season, and the Bengals happen to let up the third most fantasy points to the position. You’ll recall the Bengals D made Gronk (6-100-1) look like his old self, and Tim Wright (5-85-1) look like Aaron Hernandez (albeit a less murdery version) last week. They also surrendered a huge PPR game to Dennis Pitta (10-83) in Week 1. Olsen has accounted for 23.7% of his team’s receptions this season, second to only Martellus Bennett (24.4%) at TE this season, making him one of the highest floor options in PPR scoring.
Arizona Cardinals Defense ($3,100) - This pick is directly tied to Carson Palmer’s health. The Cardinals are a strong home team, who shouldn’t have a problem forcing Kirk Cousins (5 INTs, 61.3% completion rate) to make mistakes. However, if Logan Thomas starts, I’d be leery of the rookie gifting Cousins favorable field position with multiple turnovers of his own. It’s one more reason to monitor Palmer’s status leading up to this game - if he can’t play, pay up for San Diego ($3,400).
LIMOUSINE LIQUOR (DIRT CHEAP PLAYS)
Whoever starts at QB for the Titans (Charlie Whitehurst - $6,200/Jake Locker - $5,500) - Before letting up 13.7 fantasy points to Ben Roethlisberger last week, the Jaguars hadn’t let up less than 17.9 points to a QB this season (and that was against less than four quarters of Kirk Cousins in Week 2). I’m not very excited to start Locker or Whitehurst this week, but both showed signs of life at home against Cleveland last week, and the matchup doesn’t get much better than this. If you’re looking to save at QB to bolster the rest of your GPP lineup, I won’t fault you for playing the guy who takes on Jacksonville at home.
Chris Johnson ($3,800) - Johnson doesn’t inspire much confidence, but he’s a sneaky tournament play that could save you money, and make your lineup unique. It’s a small sample, but Johnson has been much more effective in his three games at home this season (12.53 PPR PPG) than his two on the road (3.25 PPR PPG). The Jets are home for the Broncos this week and figure to be trailing the entire game, which should play to the strengths of Johnson, who’s a better receiver than platoon-mate Chris Ivory. It helps that Denver has been a plus matchup for RBs this season (seventh most fantasy points allowed), and Andre Ellington proved last week you could beat Denver’s linebackers with speed.
Rueben Randle ($4,600)/Odell Beckham Jr ($4,200) - One of these guys is going to have a big game against the Eagles’ sorry coverage unit - the trick will be figuring out which one. Since they’re relatively close in price, my plan is to have equal shares of each dispersed throughout otherwise similar tournament lineups. Randle has the higher floor of the two due to his role as the Giants’ primary red zone target (he actually leads the NFL in red zone targets headed into Week 6), but Beckham may have the upside given how good he looked in limited snaps last week. Randle & Beckham will see some combination of Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher, both of whom rank in the bottom 10 CBs in yards allowed.
Owen Daniels ($4,300) - In the two weeks since Dennis Pitta was injured, Daniels has been targeted 13 times, only three short of the league leader in that time (Martellus Bennett). Tight ends have poked holes in Love Smith’s Tampa 2 defense this season. Greg Olson (8-83-1) and Heath Miller (10-85-1) both had huge PPR games against Tampa Bay, and even Ben Watson had five receptions in relief of the injured Jimmy Graham last week. The targets provide Daniels with a high floor, and his ceiling is higher than usual given the matchup.
Minnesota Vikings Defense ($2,500) - Before you laugh me out of the room for suggesting a defense that’s scored 0 points on DraftKings in multiple games this season, keep in mind Matthew Stafford has averaged seven less fantasy points per game in his career without Calvin Johnson in the lineup. Stafford has been sacked more than any other QB this season, and his completion percentage (63.1%) and interceptions (four) are lackluster. Minnesota is playing at home on 10 days rest, with something to prove after getting blown out by Green Bay last week.
RUBBING ALCOHOL (MINIMUM PLAYS)
Shonn Greene ($3,000) - It looks like there’s suddenly a good chance Greene sits this one out, so be sure to keep an eye on Friday’s practice report. But if he’s healthy enough to go, I don’t think 30 rushing yards and a TD is a stretch vs. Jacksonville. Greene saw 18 snaps to Bishop Sankey’s 22 last week, and 11 carries to Sankey’s eight. The two times the Titans ran the ball in the red zone, it was Greene who got the call both times. I love Bishop Sankey as a prospect, but it’s pretty clear the Titans want Greene to remain involved for some reason. If Greene is indeed out, feel free to fire up Sankey for $3,500. Just be prepared for Ken Whisenhunt to treat us to 15 slow motion carries from Jackie Battle.
Storm Johnson ($3,000) - I don’t have incredibly high hopes for any Jacksonville RB (this week or rest of season), but if we’re reading tea leaves, it sure seems like Johnson is going to get an opportunity to lead the Jags’ backfield in touches this week. Any RB seeing 60% of his team’s carries at minimum salary has to at least be considered, and who knows? Maybe Johnson can catch lightning in a bottle in a decent matchup with Tennessee, and propel you to tournament glory.
Luke Willson ($3,000) - This is your weekly reminder to start the tight end playing against the Dallas Cowboys. Even after Garrett Graham (one catch for three yards) failed to capitalize on this matchup last week, Dallas remains the most generous defense to fantasy tight ends. With Zach Miller out last week, Willson was on the field for 67 out of 72 snaps for Seattle, which is all you’re really looking for from a minimum salary tight end playing against the Cowboys. If he’s on the field for long enough, he has a decent shot to score a TD against a defense that’s ceded six TE TDs in five games.
