Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
JOHNNIE WALKER BLUE LABEL (TOP SHELF PLAYS)
Nick Foles ($8,000) - There’s no shortage of high end QBs with enticing matchups this week (Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees come to mind), but I would roll with Foles on the road in San Francisco. The 49ers defense has given up the seventh most points to opposing QBs, and it would be even worse, if not for Tony Romo’s Week 1 meltdown. They let up four TD passes to Jay Cutler two weeks ago, and the woefully inaccurate Drew Stanton managed 244 yards and two TDs against the Niners last week.
Stanton was able to complete five passes of 20 yards or more in the game, which could spell trouble for San Francisco against the Eagles, considering Foles has attempted a pass of 20+ yards on a league leading 22% of his dropbacks. Foles has been a consistency king to start the year, passing for over 320 yards in every game, to go along with a two TD per game average. When you factor in his 25:4 TD:INT ratio in 11 career road games, Foles is an excellent play in a game Vegas projects to go over 50 total points.
I would also give Colin Kaepernick a look in this game at $7,600. The Eagles have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing QBs, despite one of those QBs being named Chad Henne.
Matt Forte ($7,800) - I was hoping to find Forte’s price down on DraftKings after he combined for 54 rushing yards on 25 carries (2.16 YPA) in his last two games, but apparently the algorithms can see through a pair of tough matchups against the 49ers and Jets run defenses. Forte’s reception totals have remained strong through the rushing funk (11 in the last two games), and he still ranks third among RBs with a 44.9% share of his team’s total touches this season. He should find running room at home against the Packers, who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing RBs. For what it’s worth, Forte dominated Green Bay last season for averages of 23 carries, 117.5 rushing, 4.5 catches 50.5 receiving yards, and two total TDs per game in their two meetings.
Antonio Brown ($7,900) - If Foles is the QB consistency king, Brown has grabbed the WR crown. He’s gone over 100 yards from scrimmage, or scored a TD in all three games this year, making him as close to a sure thing as you’ll find in fantasy football. Tampa Bay has to go on the road after a demoralizing loss to the Falcons, and they won’t bring a very good pass defense with them. The Bucs have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and even though their annihilation at the hands of Julio Jones last week has a lot to do with that ranking, Tampa did not show very well against Kelvin Benjamin (6-92-1), or Brian Quick (7-74) in their other two games. Brown has been on the receiving end of 33.8% of Pittsburgh’s receptions this season (fifth best in the league), and is tied for second in the league in red zone targets. Don’t be afraid to pay the premium for him this week.
Jordy Nelson ($7,200) - Jordy was a recommendation in this space last week, and he absolutely destroyed my rosters with a dud against the Lions (5-7-59-0). It seems to me the lousy game resulted in an overcorrection to his cap figure (down $1,200 less from last week). Jordy leads the league in targets, is second in receiving yards, third in receptions, and has Aaron Rodgers as his QB. Green Bay-Chicago has the third highest over/under (49 points) and Jordy proved he can abuse this secondary in Week 16 last season (10 receptions on 16 targets, 161 yards). I’ll also be building lineups around Dez, Julio, and Calvin this week, but Nelson should rival their numbers at a relative discount.
Jimmy Graham ($7,500) - Aside from Jordy, Graham (6-54-0) is the biggest reason most of my lineups flopped last week. But once again, I’m willing to forgive and forget quickly, mostly because Graham draws the Cowboys this week. Vernon Davis scored twice against Dallas in Week 1, Delanie Walker disemboweled them in Week 2 (10-142-1), and the unholy union of Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks combined for 13 catches, 104 yards, and a TD against them last week. If DraftKings told me I had to mail them a check for $7,500 real dollars to get Graham on my roster this week, I’d find a way to make it happen.
JACK DANIELS (MODERATELY PRICED PLAYS)
Tom Brady ($6,300) - I suppose I could have made the same statement prior to last week’s game against the Raiders, but if Brady can’t produce in this week’s matchup, it’s never happening. Whether it’s due to a calf injury, a lack of weapons, or a leaky offensive line that’s allowing too much pressure, Brady has been awful through three games. His abysmal 59.1% completion percentage ranks better than only Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, and Matt Cassel. He’s averaged a paltry 5.5 yards per pass attempt - third worst in the league.
Still, I’m betting the Chiefs secondary is at least a temporary cure for whatever’s ailing Brady. Kansas City’s cornerbacks may have held their own against the scattershot Tannehill last week, but I haven’t forgotten Jake Locker looking like an All-Pro against them in Week 1, or Peyton Manning dismantling them by halftime in Week 2. In the same vein as Brady (formerly trustworthy fantasy QB who hasn’t looked like himself), I also like Tony Romo ($6,700) at home, in a potential shootout with the Saints (over/under 53).
Donald Brown ($5,400) - When I recommended Brown last week, I didn’t think it would take 36 touches for him to return value on DraftKings - but that’s not necessarily an indictment of the Chargers’ new lead runner. With Danny Woodhead joining Ryan Mathews on the shelf, another hefty workload is in the offing for Brown vs. Jacksonville. The Jags are ceding the most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and San Diego is the third most run heavy team in the league. This game has hot knife meets butter written all over it (Vegas agrees - they have the Chargers favored by 13). Even in the unlikely event Brown remains as inefficient with his carries as he was last week, he’ll still prove worthy of the modest investment against a defense that’s let up six total TDs to RBs in three games. While we’re on the topic of RBs in this price tier, it’s worth noting Eddie Lacy’s sticker price is at an all time low ($5,600), and he’s finally not playing against a top five rush defense.
C.J. Spiller ($5,600) - Last week, I made the case for Rashad Jennings based in part on Houston’s secretly crappy run defense. After Jennings ran 34 times for 176 yards and one TD, the Texans’ vulnerability against the run is no longer a secret. I had a hard time deciding if I’d rather use Spiller or Fred Jackson ($4,900) in this matchup, so I let projected game script break the tie. Last week was the first this season that Jackson significantly out-snapped Spiller (45-25). The Bills were trailing the Chargers the entire game, and since they typically feature Jackson on passing downs, he fell into team highs of 10 targets, eight receptions, and 78 receiving yards. Vegas is only giving Houston the three point home field advantage this week, so they’re expecting a close game. If things stay on script, Spiller should be good for his usual 15-18 touches - plenty of opportunity for him to break a chunk play or two - especially given the opponent.
Julian Edelman ($6,500) - I’ll definitely be constructing a lineup around Brady and Edelman in tourneys. Edelman is basically Antonio Brown-lite, averaging a studly 7.3 receptions, and 86.7 receiving yards per game. His 32.4% share of the team’s receptions also ranks him right behind Brown (32.8%). The TDs haven’t been there for Edelman (only one this year), but the red zone looks have - his six red zone targets tie him with Brown (and a few others) for second most in the league. The best part about Edelman is that he’s proven three weeks in a row he can be productive with this awful version of Tom Brady throwing him passes. Even if I’m wrong, and Brady tanks vs. the crummy Chiefs defense, Edelman will be fine.
Michael Crabtree ($6,400) - I mentioned earlier Colin Kaepernick is an advisable play against a bad Eagles pass defense, so it follows Crabtree is also in line for a big performance. An early season calf injury hampered Crabtree in Week 1 against the Cowboys, but he looks all the way back, catching 17 passes (two TDs) in the last two weeks. Eagles CBs Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher both have bottom 20 coverage grades (according to Pro Football Focus), making Crabtree the most likely mid-priced receiver to achieve top tier scoring this week.
Antonio Gates ($4,400) - Gates nearly fell out of the box score last week against Buffalo, reminding us just how volatile the tight end position can be. The one target, eight yard performance was enough to discount Gates a full $1,700 from last week. This week he gets the Jags, who are even worse than Dallas at defending tight ends (if you could imagine such a thing). Zach Ertz (3-77-1) and Niles Paul (8-99-1) had big games against Jacksonville in Weeks 1 and 2, before Dwayne Allen (4-43-1) and Coby Fleener (4-49-1) both got in on the act last week. Gates investors shouldn’t be concerned (yet) about the emergence of Ladarius Green. Despite Green’s spike in production (4-64 last week), he played a season low 23 snaps vs. the Bills.
Chargers Defense ($3,100) - If you’ve read this column the last three weeks, you started the defense playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and were rewarded with 14, 16, and 17 fantasy points on DraftKings. While it hurts me to say goodbye to Chad Henne - the gift that kept on giving - Jacksonville’s offensive woes were not all his fault. The Jaguars’ offensive line is ranked dead last in both pass blocking and run blocking (per Football Outsiders), and while Blake Bortles moved the ball well against an Indy D that was staked to a huge lead, he completed only 58.3% of his passes and was picked off twice. Even with Bortles behind center, it remains open season on exploiting the Jaguars.
Colts Defense ($3,100) - I’m going back to the well one more time with the Indianapolis D. The Colts are playing at home, and favored by more than a TD - both qualities I look for in a fantasy defense. The Titans have been a good matchup for opposing defenses lately, and that was before Jake Locker banged up his wrist. If Locker was only completing 56.4% of his passes, and throwing more INTs than TDs while healthy, what’s going to happen now that he has trouble gripping a football? And if Locker sits this one out, Indy gets to tee off on Chaz Whitehurst, or Zach Mettenberger. Yes, please.
LIMOUSINE LIQUOR (DIRT CHEAP PLAYS)
Teddy Bridgewater ($5,700) - Bridgewater is a Hail Mary tournament play to be certain, but he draws a favorable home matchup against the Falcons in his first career start, and rostering him allows you to load up at RB and WR. Teddy showed decent pocket awareness and good touch on his passes against the Saints, particularly on this 30 yard completion to Greg Jennings. His 6 rushes (for 27 yards) were also encouraging. I’m willing to risk a tournament lineup on the amped up Minnesota crowd (TED-DY!, TED-DY!) propelling Bridgewater to a 17ish point performance, which would be enough to cover his salary.
Matt Asiata ($4,500) - My biggest pet peeve of the fantasy football season is Matt Asiata seeing the field over Jerick McKinnon in Adrian Peterson’s absence. For this week only, I’m putting my bitter feelings aside and playing Asiata, who might have the best $/point value of any player on DraftKings. The Falcons (and their dismal linebackers) have been a dream matchup for opposing RBs this season - particularly in the receiving game. Atlanta hasn’t let up less than five receptions, or 58 receiving yards to a lead RB in any game this season. Asiata has done most of his damage as a receiver, averaging 6.5 targets, 4 receptions, 42 receiving yards, and .5 receiving TDs per game over his two starts. This shouldn’t come as a surprise given Norv Turner’s play calling history, and I would expect even more short dump offs this week with Teddy Bridgewater learning on the job.
DeAndre Hopkins ($4,800) - Earlier I pointed out Antonio Brown has either gone over 100 yards from scrimmage, or scored a TD in all three games this year. Only three other WRs can make the same claim - Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin...and Hopkins. I love Hopkins as an under the radar tournament play against the Bills for the same reason Malcom Floyd (2-98) was my Rubbing Alcohol play last week. Bills CB Corey Graham has been locking down the opposition, but Leodis McKelvin, Stephon Gilmore, and (especially) Nickell Robey have all been rotten. I speculated Floyd would get over on McKelvin last week, and sure enough one of Floyd’s 49 yard catches came with McKelvin in coverage. Graham should have his hands full with Andre Johnson this week, leaving Hopkins (who does stuff like this) in winnable matchups most of the afternoon. Hopefully, Bill O’Brien’s recent quotes about getting Hopkins more involved turn out to be foreshadowing.
Vincent Jackson ($5,100) - Nothing about Jackson’s season so far makes you want to start him, and his apparent broken wrist is admittedly a concern, but would it really surprise you if he goes for 20+ points vs. the Steelers? Pittsburgh’s CBs were already a matchup to target for opposing WRs, and now they’re without a starter (albeit not a very good one) due to Ike Taylor’s broken forearm. Mike Glennon will get the start Sunday for the Bucs, and while he’s no world beater, Jackson’s per game splits in 13 games with Glennon last season were plenty useful - 10 targets, 4.85 receptions, 73.77 receiving yards, .54 TDs, 13.03 fantasy points. I cannot overstate how awfully Josh McCown played this season. In tournaments, I’m willing to bet Glennon is a (relative) breath of fresh air for the Tampa Bay pass catchers.
RUBBING ALCOHOL (MINIMUM PLAYS)
Andre Holmes ($3,000) - I usually don’t have much trouble identifying a minimum play or two, but the cupboard is awfully bare on DraftKings this week. With Rod Streater out the next 4-5 weeks with a foot injury, Holmes is in line for “more rotational work”, making him as good a minimum priced flier as any. You’ll recall Holmes made a splash when given the opportunity last year. From Week 13 (when his snap count began to rise) through the end of the season, he averaged 8.2 targets, 4.4 receptions, and 73.2 receiving yards per game for Oakland. If you’re hoping for a blowup game from a minimum priced flier, it can only help when that player’s closest athletic comparable is Larry Fitzgerald.