The tight end position in a Peyton Manning offense has been predictably lucrative for fantasy purposes over the last six seasons. If you were to throw out the 2012 season in which Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen split snaps, and combine the 2010 production of Tamme and Dallas Clark (who was placed on injured reserve after six games), the average stat line of Peyton Manning’s top tight end since 2007 looks like this:
80.8 receptions, 867.2 receiving yards, 9.2 touchdowns, 142.4 fantasy points per season.
For context, 142.4 fantasy points would have placed fourth at tight end last season, behind only Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, and - wait for it - Julius Thomas.
Thomas exploded on the scene with 12 TDs last season, catching 44.4% of his red zone targets for scores. Not only was he Manning’s best weapon in the red zone, Thomas was the most efficient red zone scoring tight end in the entire NFL last year (minimum 15 RZ targets).
In addition to Thomas’ TD prowess, he racked up 65 catches for 788 yards. Clearly, if Orange Julius were to go down with an injury (not altogether unlikely given his history of ankle woes), significant fantasy production would be up for grabs in Denver. But is there another tight end on the roster capable of approximating Thomas’ elite production?
The short answer is no, unless you’re willing to gamble on an extreme long shot. We got a glimpse of what the Broncos would look like sans Julius when he missed weeks 12 and 13 last season with the bad ankle. Denver’s tight end production in those games was a mixed bag.
Virgil Green was the backup who soaked up the most snaps in Thomas’ absence, but he was kept in to run block 65% of the time, and managed only five yards on two receptions over the two game stretch. Jacob Tamme was briefly relevant while Thomas was out. He managed a useful fantasy performance in week 12 against New England (5-47-1), but was MIA the following week against Kansas City, playing only 19 snaps.
It may be a small sample, but based on Denver’s game plan in the two games Thomas missed last season, it’s unlikely Green or Tamme steps up as a consistent fantasy producer if Thomas were to go down again.
So what do we do with our Denver Broncos if calamity were to befall Julius Thomas?
Buy
Emmanuel Sanders - Sanders is a smallish receiver with only 11 TDs through four NFL seasons. While all Denver pass catchers would get a bump in the event of a Julius Thomas injury, Sanders would be helped most by the additional targets, especially in the red zone.
Sanders held his own from inside the 20 last season (he scored on 31.3% of his red zone targets), but still converted a lower percentage of his red zone looks than Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Whatever Sanders lacks in scoring efficiency would be compensated for by volume, as he would surely collect a share of the red zone targets previously earmarked for Thomas (who had 18 such targets last season).
When you factor in the departure of Eric Decker (team high 25 RZ targets a year ago), the odds were already favorable Sanders would surpass his career high 6 TDs from last season. With Julius Thomas also out of the lineup, a 10+ TD pace for Sanders is a virtual certainty.
Despite the extremely small sample, it’s also worth noting Decker (Denver’s starting Z receiver last year - the position Sanders inherits) was Manning’s most heavily targeted and productive receiver in the two games Thomas missed. In weeks 12 and 13, Decker led the Broncos in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and TDs.
Hold
All Broncos Skill Position Players - Will Peyton Manning miss having a guy who turns almost half his red zone opportunities into TDs? Perhaps a bit, but Julius Thomas is not what makes the Denver passing game a scoring machine. If you remove Thomas’ red zone looks and TD grabs from the team totals last season, Denver pass catchers still converted red zone targets into TDs at a 32.3% rate - a full 10% higher than the league average. Rest assured, Manning and the Denver receivers will be just fine without Thomas.
The Broncos’ running game didn’t suffer without Julius Thomas last season either. Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball combined for 44 carries, and 264 rushing yards in week 12 vs. New England. The following week Ball rushed for a career high 117 yards against the Chiefs, while Moreno chipped in 4 catches for 72 yards and a TD through the air. Projecting Ball for a slight uptick in receptions and goal line work without Thomas around doesn’t seem like a stretch.
Sell
Do not sell your Denver Broncos unless you spot Peyton Manning’s arm in a sling.
Add
Gerell Robinson - As of this writing, it’s uncertain if Robinson will even break training camp on the active roster, so this one is admittedly a stretch. But if there’s one guy on the Broncos current tight end depth chart who can replicate some of the things Julius Thomas does on the field from an athletic standpoint, it’s Robinson - a former standout wide receiver from Arizona State.
Robinson may not be quite as big as Thomas, but at 6’3’, 222 lbs., he is an imposing target who possesses the athleticism to thrive as a move tight end at the pro level. The former Sun Devil (who was Broncos’ backup QB Brock Osweiler’s favorite target as a college senior) has enough speed to pose problems for opposing linebackers in coverage (4.62 forty), as well as the long arms and leaping ability to grab contested passes. He even has the requisite all-star basketball background from his days at Hamilton High School in Chandler, Arizona.
With veteran backup tight end Joel Dreessen’s recent release, Robinson’s chances of cracking the 53 man roster have increased. And if this glowing report from May’s rookie minicamp is any indication, head coach John Fox is a fan of the athleticism Robinson brings to Denver’s tight end position.
In a best case scenario, Robinson will break camp as the Broncos’ fourth string tight end. While that doesn’t exactly scream “pick em’ up”, remember it was only a year ago Julius Thomas was listed as Denver’s fourth stringer. At the very least, make sure you file the name Gerell Robinson away in the event of an injury to Thomas - just in case.
Drop
None. From a fantasy perspective, Peyton Manning's value holds steady, and the remaining Broncos offensive skill players would see an uptick in usage.