There are few things in life worse than a guy who won’t stop talking about his fantasy football teams. As much as I love the game, I would rather sit on an uncovered gas station toilet seat than hear someone prattle on about a bad beat, or how they’ve won their league the last three years.
I’m fully aware the feeling is mutual. Folks like hearing about my fantasy football teams about as much as I enjoy listening to my wife gossip about her coworkers every night at dinner (don’t worry she’s not reading this - like everyone else, she could care less about my fantasy teams).
While I want to be respectful of the indifference we feel towards each other’s teams, I thought it would be fun (for me anyway), and possibly even useful for those who haven’t drafted yet, to provide a rundown of the players who ended up on most of my rosters this year.
Keep in mind, I wasn’t necessarily targeting all these players. To borrow a phrase from the venerable Sigmund Bloom, there were times I felt “hemmed in” by my league mates, and had to settle for the best available player at a position of need. But regardless of the circumstances, I’m riding with the following players this year, and would urge you to do the same:
Running Back
Joique Bell - Bell has the look of a rock solid RB2, even outside of PPR leagues. When forced to decide between Bell and used up veterans like Chris Johnson and Ray Rice, who are being taken in the same round, I didn’t hesitate to pick the one who projects to lead a potent offense in carries and goal line looks (that would be Joique). Bell was great at the goal line last season, finishing third in TD conversion rate (58%) out of 21 RBs who had at least 10 carries from inside the five yard line. Now the Lions are paying Bell more guaranteed money ($4.3 million) than Bush, which would suggest he's in line for more work between the twenties as well. Scott Linehan’s departure should have a negligible impact on Bell’s receiving opportunities, so no worries there. Adam Harstad points out the 2014 Lions might be the single most productive PPR fantasy offense we’ve ever seen. Oh, and if something were to happen to Reggie Bush, Bell instantly transforms into the RB who tilts your league championship.
Andre Ellington - I may have gotten swept up by the Jamaal Charles comparisons and splashy plays from last season (he had more 15+ yard runs than DeMarco Murray on 100 less carries last year), but Andre Ellington was a guy I couldn’t say no to in the third round. Jason Wood’s terrific Player Spotlight supports the notion Ellington can handle a large workload, which is the only concern anyone seems to have about Ellington - except the Cardinals. Ellington has been featured as a workhorse with the starting unit in each of Arizona’s preseason games, most recently seeing the field on 26-of-29 first team snaps against Cincinnati. Maybe his TD upside will be capped by Jonathan Dwyer at the goal line, but Ellington has not been automatically coming off the field in the red zone. The only real “risk” Ellington carries is that we’ve never seen him do it for a full season before. I’d rather take the leap of faith Ellington holds up under a heavy workload than draft a guy like CJ Spiller, or Reggie Bush who we absolutely know will play in a timeshare.
The Crusty Jacksons - I ended up taking at least one wide receiver in the first two rounds of all my drafts, and since I didn’t have the stones for upside down drafting prefer a balanced lineup, my third and fourth round running backs almost always came with question marks (see Bell and Ellington above). By the time it got to the middle rounds, I felt the need for safety at RB, and if Steven Jackson and Fred Jackson are anything besides old, it’s dependable in the seventh round or later.
Steven Jackson finds himself in the same favorable position he was in at the start of last season, as the primary back in Atlanta’s high powered offense. Jackson may not have much juice left in his legs, but he was able to score six TDs over the final six games last year - and that was without Julio Jones in the lineup. I’m not scared off by the addition of Devonta Freeman. The rookie has seen only one series with Atlanta’s starters this preseason, despite Jackson not appearing in any games due to a strained hamstring. Jackson appears to be healed, and he projects to get around 15 carries per game, plus all the goal line work for the Falcons. That’s more than you can say for the roles of Bernard Pierce and Darren Sproles who have similar ADPs.
Much to the chagrin of C.J. Spiller apologists, Fred Jackson is not going away. Jackson finished as the RB11 last season, on the strength of 45 receptions and nine touchdowns. We’ve seen nothing to make us believe his role will change this year. Thus far this preseason, Jackson has handled all the goal line and third down work for the Bills, out-targeting Spiller in the passing game 15 to four over three games. And if you don’t think F-Jax is getting Buffalo’s rushing TDs this year, I would urge you to visit the Data Dominator. Spiller has seven carries from inside the five yard line in his entire career. Jackson has 40 in the same span. Pay no bother to the yawns he’ll elicit from your league mates. If Fred Jackson is your third or fourth RB, you’ve done well.
Wide Receiver
Dez Bryant - Every time I ended up with the ninth or tenth pick this year, I tabbed Bryant in the first round, diversification be damned. This prediction made me look silly last year, but I’m willing to double down in 2014 - this is the year Dez unseats Calvin as the consensus number one wide receiver in fantasy. The addition of Scott Linehan as Cowboys offensive coordinator should preclude the need for Dez to go on another sideline tirade. Linehan made Calvin Johnson the second most targeted wide receiver in the NFL over the past five seasons, and he’ll do the same for Dez. In fact, he probably won’t have a choice. The Cowboys defense looks comically bad, which means Tony Romo and company will be forced to throw if they want to stay in games. As the team’s most talented receiver and the best red zone weapon in the NFL (he led all WRs with a 47.67% TD conversion rate on red zone targets), Bryant could crash through even his highest projected ceiling this season.
Julio Jones - My teams feature plenty of Dez/Julio pairings, which I couldn’t be happier about. I suppose having the screw that was holding your foot together break while still inside your foot would be troubling, but he looks all the way back to me. If Julio had continued the pace he set through five weeks last season, he would have finished with 131 catches, 1,856 yards and 7 TDs. While the receptions and yardage would almost certainly have normalized over the course of the year, the fact remains - Jones was on his way to becoming a fantasy overlord last season. If he’s playing in football games, he's welcome on my fantasy team.
Michael Floyd - If Michael Floyd busts this season, it would be an extinction level event for my rosters. I reached for Floyd in the third or fourth round of every single draft, passing up plenty of reliable options in the process. Picking Floyd early was a calculated gamble on talent and scheme. Floyd is big, fast, physical, explosive, runs solid routes, and has great hands. He’s a total package receiver, with a first round pedigree, in a vertical offense that wants to get him the ball downfield. After cracking the 1,000 yard receiving barrier in his second season, Floyd only needs to remain on his current career trajectory to become a top 10 fantasy WR in 2014. If you can buy him at a discount due to his quiet preseason, don’t hesitate. Floyd had no trouble getting wide open on two separate deep passes in Sunday’s exhibition debut, only to be overthrown by Carson Palmer. If last season was any indication (Floyd’s 16 yards per reception tied him for 10th in the league), it won’t be long before those big plays come to fruition.
Kelvin Benjamin - Drafting rookie wide receivers is usually a perilous undertaking, but Benjamin’s preseason has been impossible to ignore. He’s been targeted on 17% of his snaps during the exhibition contests, a rate that puts him in the conversation with other teams’ top receiving targets, including Demaryius Thomas (20%), Alshon Jeffery (19%), and Mike Wallace (19%) to name a few. The FSU product has also looked the part, making acrobatic TD catches, and most recently outmuscling Darrelle Revis for a catch in a game against New England. With Carolina otherwise lacking talent at the receiver position, 120 targets for Benjamin this year isn’t out of the question. Given that many looks and Benjamin’s theoretical red zone prowess (he’s built like a tight end at 6’5’’, 243 lbs.), Cam Newton’s best bud has a ceiling the Kendall Wright’s of the world don’t possess in the eighth round. Let’s just hope Newton can play effectively with fractured ribs.
Justin Hunter - I had to reach for Hunter as early as the seventh round in some leagues, though I was usually able to grab him in the ninth. Consider this an endorsement of Ken Whisenhunt, and his propensity for getting the most out of his passing games - as well as a vote in favor of eye popping talent. Hunter is 6’4’’, lightning fast (4.44 forty time), can leap out of the stadium, and has excellent ball skills. At worst, he leads the Titans in TD catches this year. At best, he’s the 2014 version of Josh Gordon. If I have one concern, it’s that Hunter has played behind Nate Washington in two wide sets during the preseason, but I’m willing to gamble Tennessee won’t be able to keep him off the field when the games start counting.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson - I waited on QB until the eighth or ninth round of every draft, knowing I had a good shot at landing Russell Wilson. While the follow-up to Wilson’s stellar rookie campaign was a bit uneven, he still finished as the ninth ranked fantasy QB last season. He remains one of the best dual threat QBs in the game, increasing his rushing yards from 489 as a rookie to 539 last year. With Cam Newton banged up and Terrelle Pryor now a third stringer in Seattle, Wilson is a strong bet to lead all QBs in rushing this season. Although Seattle will never be mistaken for a pass first offense, Wilson possesses the skill set to make the most of his limited opportunities. He had the highest completion percentage on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield in the entire league last season. And don’t underestimate the impact of Percy Harvin. It can only help a QB’s stats when their top wideout routinely turns bubble screens into 40 yard gains. An assist from Harvin might be all that’s needed to elevate Wilson into the top tier of fantasy QBs.
Tight End
Ladarius Green - I’ve stubbornly kept Ladarius Green inside my top ten tight ends all offseason. When it was looking early in the preseason like he would be used out of the slot alongside Antonio Gates, I could barely contain myself. However, the Chargers last two preseason games have tempered my enthusiasm a bit. Green played on only 13 of Philip Rivers’ last 28 snaps, drawing just a single target in the passing game. It’s beginning to look like Green will be hamstrung by the same inconsistent usage that stood in his way last season. I didn’t let those concerns keep me from securing Green in the 11th or 12th round every time I drafted. At that price, betting on a talent like Green - whose physical assets and efficiency stats place him in the conversation with Graham and Gronk - is still a shrewd move. At some point, the Chargers’ coaching staff has to figure out their best playmaker belongs on the field.
Team Defense
New York Jets - While I always try to keep an open mind when drafting, I rarely see the need to select a defense before the second to last round. I’ll be streaming based on matchup this year, just like I do every year, which led me to select the Jets in all leagues. New York opens the season at home against Jake Delhomme Matt Schaub and the Oakland Raiders. Even the Jets’ depleted secondary should be able to create turnovers against Schaub’s animated corpse. Looking ahead to week two, I’ve got my eye on the Redskins playing at home against Chad Henne.
