Welcome to the Fantasy Exchange, a weekly stock report on fantasy football goings on that attempts to cut to the statistical quick.
Week 1 is in the books for the 2014 season, and we finally have some meaningful, relevant data to begin to parse. While one week is a poor sample size, there was plenty to glean from fantasy output as related to player usage.
You may recall the preseason article on Opportunity Shares, which looked at player usage in 2013 and its relationship to fantasy output. That is the model this series will be built around, adding a new component to the mix—fantasy points shares (FP shares). That statistic is an attempt to reconcile a player's usage directly with his fantasy output. The higher the FP shares, the better for a player.
While that may be obvious for certain players—Calvin Johnson is going to have a massive share of his team's fantasy points, naturally—it can be the canary in a mine for a player who has been luckier than good, or it can herald a coming fantasy explosion for a player who has been down on his fortunes.
Here is a primer on the statistics referenced below:
- Att% = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts that player received
- Tgt% = the percentage of a team's passing targets that player received
- Opp% = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts and targets combined that player received
- PPO = fantasy points per opportunity (PPR)
- PPT = fantasy points per target (PPR)
- TmPly/Avg = the number of plays the player's team ran versus the league average
- TmAtt/Avg = the number of passing attempts the player's team ran versus the league average
- FP Shares = the player's fantasy output crossed with his team usage
- TmFP% = the percentage of a team's fantasy points scored by the player
Buy
Terrance West, RB, Cleveland Browns
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp% | TmPly/Avg | TmFP% |
10.0 | 0.63 | 2.50 | 53.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% | -1.4% | 13.2% |
It was a breakout party for Cleveland Browns rookie running backs last week. Isaiah Crowell scored on his first professional carry and Terrance West hit a C-note on after Ben Tate went out.
It’s clear which one of these two you should be targeting this week, however. Crowell will get more attention because of his two-touchdown performance, but West was clearly more involved. The Towson product more than tripled Crowell’s touch count, garnering 53.3 percent of the team's carries despite the fact Tate got six of his own before going down with injury. It looks like West will be carrying the torch in that backfield for a little while, to boot.
What is the timeline for injured #Browns RB Ben Tate? I’m told likely out 2-4 weeks, depending on how he heals. You’ll see West & Crowell
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 10, 2014
The timeline does put a damper on West's value a bit, assuming you can even snag him given he was drafted so highly for much of the offseason. If you do have him, you shouldn't be shy about inserting him into your lineups as a flex or RB3 option.
Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee Titans
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
9.3 | 0.79 | 2.25 | 24.2% | 37.5% | -9.3% |
The stat line wasn’t great, but there was plenty to like about Justin Hunter’s Week 1 performance. He was targeted eight times, twice inside the five yard line. Most of those targets were downfield, but quarterback Jake Locker just couldn’t connect on a few of them.
Sean Smith—the 6'3", 218- pound Chiefs cornerback—played the foil, covering him well and contributing to a few of those missed connections. Locker wasn’t terribly sharp early on, either.
Hunter wound up with a meager three receptions, albeit for a healthy 21 yards-per-reception average. His usage was encouraging, though—a 24.2-percent target rate and FP shares above 2.0 are healthy figures that point to a big game coming. That game may well come this Sunday when the Titans face the lowly Dallas Cowboys defense.
Marqise Lee, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
12.2 | 0.62 | 2.84 | 23.3% | 60.0% | 18.1% |
It was the Allen Hurns Show in Philadelphia as the undrafted rookie receiver out of Miami exploded for two touchdowns on his first two NFL receptions. Lost in the glare of his supernova, however, was the fact second-round rookie Marqise Lee had a fine day himself.
Lee didn’t get into the end zone as the Jaguars quickly cooled after running out to a 17-0 lead, but he had a decent showing nonetheless. He got into double digits in PPR formats, and his 2.84 FP shares despite not scoring are a good sign. While Hurns stole the show, Lee was quietly putting up a decent fantasy day. If he happens to be available in your league, he might be a better target than his undrafted rookie teammate—Cecil Shorts III is coming back to likely take playing time away from Hurns, not to mention the fact Allen Robinson was still making his way back from a hamstring issue.
Brandon Myers, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
10.1 | 0.51 | 2.31 | 22.9% | 75.0% | -3.8% |
Unheralded Brandon Myers is one guy who seems to be completely flying under the radar in the fantasy realm. If you need a tight end who is going to get targets, he may be your man.
Early on it looked like rookie Austin Seferian-Jenkins was going to be that man in Tampa Bay after he caught a 26-yard pass in the first quarter. David Copperfield must have paid the Buccaneers sideline a visit, though, and Myers was the beneficiary.
Myers garnered a healthy 22.9 percent of his team’s targets—not huge, but certainly sustainable. His 2.31 fantasy points shares aren't bad considering he didn't get into the end zone and the Buccaneers offense looked awful for much of the day.
Coby Fleener, TE, Indianapolis Colts
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
5.1 | 0.26 | 0.77 | 15.1% | 37.5% | 45.6% |
If you watched Andrew Luck nearly bring back the Colts against the Broncos on Sunday night, you may have noticed his affinity for chucking the ball at his best buddy from college, tight end Coby Fleener. For some unknown reason, Fleener has Luck’s eye, a veritable Gríma Wormtongue.
There were more missed connections here than a regular Tuesday on Craigslist. Fleener flailed and flopped his way to just three receptions on eight targets—fewer than you may have expected—and a poor fantasy output on a great matchup. Fellow Colts tight end Dwayne Allen won the day thanks to a 41-yard touchdown romp down the sideline. Fleener had a much higher percentage of his team's targets, however, which should be a bit concerning for Allen owners.
Fleener should be a buy-low candidate with upside, which is the only reason why he is here. Targets are fantasy opportunities, and it lokos like he will get plenty of them. Whether he converts them is another matter—if he didn't mis-time a jump on an end-zone target, for example, he would have had a nice fantasy night.
Hold
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
21.8 | 3.76 | 4.36 | 20.0% | 60.0% | -31.3% |
The Minnesota Vikings put a whooping on the St. Louis Rams in Week 1, and Cordarrelle Patterson showed why he’s such a dangerous and valuable asset. But is he a danger to your fantasy lineup?
Patterson has showcased his ability to score from anywhere on the field, and he is really a must-start every week. But his Week 1 usage was a bit worrisome for some going forward.
The Vikings routed the Rams on just 25 passes from Matt Cassel, so the fact Patterson had just three catches isn’t so bad. His five targets were good for 20 percent of the take, also not bad. He may not be a PPR stud based on those numbers, but Patterson is too dynamic to keep out of your lineup. Just beware of his boom-or-bust potential.
Mike Wallace, WR, Miami Dolphins
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
19.1 | 1.10 | 6.57 | 34.4% | 63.6% | -12.1% |
Last week was supposed to be a bad matchup for Mike Wallace. It turned out to be just fine for the Miami Dolphins receiver.
Darrelle Revis spent much of the game blanketing Wallace, but the speedy wideout was able to get out from under the covers on many occasions. It was a bit of a roller coaster for Wallace, who had a fumble, one bad drop and a non-catch in the end zone that he should been able to make. He was also breaking free on another deep target that was underthrown for an interception. Despite all that, though, Wallace converted 11 targets into seven receptions for 81 yards and a score with Revis in tight coverage.
Unlike last season, this big performance heralds a nice fantasy season to come for Wallace. It looks like he has become Tannehill's favorite target, and his upside is undeniable. A few drops or missed plays won't hurt his value nearly as much if he approaches double-digit targets on average.
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Miami Dolphins
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp% | TmPly/Avg | TmFP% |
19.4 | 0.81 | 6.56 | 63.2% | 0.0% | 33.8% | 9.4% | 28.5% |
A certain birdie may have been chirping during the offseason and preseason about Knowshon Moreno being the better value at running back in Miami’s backfield. Hopefully you heard it, because his value just took the elevator to the penthouse.
Hyperbolous or not, Moreno clearly showed why the Dolphins signed him and why you should have drafted him. If you did, congratulations—you have yourself a workhorse. He may not have been involved in the passing game in Week 1—Lamar Miller proved to be the pass-catching option out of the backfield—but Moreno garnered 63.2 percent of his team’s carries and 33.8 percent of its fantasy scoring opportunities. The latter number would have been near the top of the league last season, and there is little reason to believe this
Moreno’s value does seem to take a hit in PPR leagues—he may not get many targets if Week 1 was any indication—but he could easily wind up in the top 10 fantasy scorers at his position—once again, unexpectedly.
Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
16.9 | 1.10 | 4.23 | 25.0% | 77.8% | -1.1% |
Waiver wires everywhere likely include Brian Quick, the de facto No. 1 receiver of the St. Louis Rams after Kenny Britt has seemingly squandered yet another opportunity.
Britt played fewer snaps and had a big fat goose egg on just two targets while Quick enjoyed the 24th-best fantasy output of the week at wide receiver. His situation is a bit shaky given his top two quarterbacks have gotten injured, but it seems that he has staked claim to a large share of the fantasy pie in St. Louis. It might be wise to wade slowly into these waters given Quick has had a history of disappearing for nearly entire seasons at a time, but the former second-round pick might actually be starting to deliver on his potential.
Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
22.3 | 1.30 | 5.01 | 22.4% | 72.7% | -6.6% |
It was a big day for rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who had 96 receiving yards and an amazing touchdown reception for the Carolina Panthers. It was so good that Greg Olsen’s huge game almost went unnoticed.
Olsen had the second-highest fantasy output of the week at tight end, a 22.3-point dandy in PPR formats in a what turned out to be an offensive slog against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
If you’re thinking about selling for some reason, don’t. Olsen was a huge part of the offense, garnering 32.4 percent of the team’s targets and a massive fantasy points share as a result. The only potential concern is the return of Cam Newton—temporary starter Derek Anderson did seem to favor Olsen—but the big tight end had a nice 2013 season with Newton at the helm.
Sell
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp% | TmPly/Avg | TmFP% |
15.2 | 3.04 | 1.19 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 7.8% | -1.4% | 20.0% |
Terrance West’s value has already been elucidated above, much to the detriment of Isaiah Crowell and anyone who might be targeting him. Crowell seemed to get the red zone work, which gives him a little value. But his usage was problematic from a predictive standpoint—just 7.8 percent of his team's fantasy scoring opportunities despite Tate's injury. With Tate coming back in a few weeks, Crowell may be the recipient of the 2014 Kevin Ogletree Award.
Hakeem Nicks, WR, Indianapolis Colts
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
14.6 | 1.92 | 1.38 | 9.4% | 100.0% | 45.6% |
It turned out to be a nice Colts debut for Hakeem Nicks. He caught all five of his targets and scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter that touched off nervous hand-wringing in Denver. But is he a valuable fantasy asset going forward?
Nicks received just 9.4 percent of his team's targets on Sunday night, a frightfully low number for his fantasy owners. Quarterback Andrew Luck put it up 52 times, and—while it's entirely possible he approaches the single-season record for passing attempts— it's highly unlikely that number is anywhere near sustainable.
T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener had much higher usage in the passing game, they just didn't get into the end zone. Move Nicks while you can.
Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp% | TmPly/Avg | TmFP% |
15.8 | 0.99 | 2.66 | 28.9% | 15.6% | 22.5% | 9.4% | 23.2% |
It was a great opening week for the Miami Dolphins offensively, and that included third-year running back Lamar Miller. But was it a sign of things to come, or did Knowshon Moreno do enough to take Miller's starting job and some of his usage away?
Moreno didn't catch a pass while Miller was targeted 15.6 percent of the time, but that could easily change—we all saw what Moreno could do in the passing game last year. Miller was the beneficiary of being on the field when the Dolphins were moving the ball in no-huddle fashion when he scored his touchdown.
Miami could well stick with what worked in Week 1, but Moreno is a superior runner and all-around back. It wouldn't be surprising to see Miller fade into the background a bit as the season wears on. By then it will be too late to get good return value for him.
Waiting for Flow
Ladarius Green, TE, San Diego Chargers
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
4.4 | 1.20 | 0.16 | 3.6% | 100.0% | -1.1% |
Why do the San Diego Chargers hate fantasy football owners?
Ladarius Green may have been a bit over-hyped heading into the 2014 season with Antonio Gates hanging around, but his puzzling usage in Week 1 has thrown fantasy owners for a loop. Gates—who had been a question mark heading into the Monday night tilt.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp% | TmPly/Avg | TmFP% |
19.1 | 1.36 | 3.62 | 46.4% | 2.4% | 20.0% | 7.9% | 19.5% |
Perhaps there is something to this whole Mark Ingram thing.
The fourth-year running back looks like he has something to prove—coincidentally in a contract year, of course—and he has moved on from tantalizing in the preseason to delivering on that promise with a two-touchdown performance in Week 1.
The trouble? Things are the same as they ever were in New Orleans—there are too many mouths to feed. Ingram got the bulk of the goal line work, but what happens when that goes away? His usage was pretty good, after all—he got 20 percent of his team's fantasy opportunities—but his FP Shares were bloated by those two touchdowns.
It might be wise to sell high on Ingram. In fact, he was originally in that section here. But you might also regret it if you do.
Steve Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
24.8 | 1.19 | 6.00 | 24.2% | 46.7% | 70.3% |
What should we make of Steve Smith?
On the one hand, he had a huge fantasy day, and the numbers support the idea that it could happen again. He garnered a healthy 24.2 percent of Joe Flacco’s passes, and his fantasy shares were among the most in the league. On the other, it’s unlikely Flacco will be putting up 62 passes again this season, and the bulk of his production came on a fluky 80-yard touchdown pass that came on busted coverage after Flacco scrambled out of the pocket. Take that away and Smith’s output drops precipitously to 9.8 fantasy points and his fantasy shares go down to 2.02 in PPR formats.
Even then, Smith has promise going forward, which makes this a conundrum—advising to sell on a huge performance seems hasty, but he is liable to be a disappointment the rest of the way. If you can find great value in a trade, go for it. Otherwise we need to see some more data.
Zac Stacy, RB, St. Louis Rams
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp% | TmPly/Avg | TmFP% |
6.1 | 0.47 | 1.05 | 50.0% | 5.6% | 20.6% | -2.9% | 10.9% |
Will Zac Stacy start? Does he have fantasy value if Benny Cunningham is going to eat into his playing time?
That may have seemed like the case, but Stacy’s value wasn’t diminished because of Cunningham on Sunday—the Rams were simply awful on offense. Stacy garnered just 50 percent of the team's carries, but Cunningham was far lower at 22.7 percent. It does seem that Cunningham will be more involved in the passing game than Stacy, however—he had four receptions on four targets whereas Stacy had just one on two targets.
There isn't much to do here regarding a trade—Stacy's value has taken a hit over the past few weeks—but keeping him in your fantasy lineup is another story. It's tough to remove someone you likely drafted in the first five rounds, but there may be a better option for you until we get a little more clarity in that St. Louis backfield.
Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
3.4 | 0.23 | 0.55 | 16.2% | 33.3% | 1.6% |
The Dallas Cowboys are a mess on both sides of the ball. Tony Romo looks like he aged about 10 years in the offseason, and his receivers and tight ends suffered for it in Week 1. Not only did Dez Bryant get annihilated on an awful pass en route to a quiet afternoon, but Jason Witten—normally a reception monger in that offense—caught just two passes for 14 yards.
The good news is he was targeted six times, which should be a baseline for him. The bad news is that Romo is still his quarterback. If Romo regains his form from years’ past, Witten and everyone else on that offense will be more than fine—the Cowboys are going to have to pass plenty to chase the points the defense gives up. But there are no guarantees after offseason back surgery. Romo might be racing toward that the cliff from which Eli Manning appears to have fallen.