Few fifth-round running backs make fantasy football impacts like Zac Stacy did last season with the St. Louis Rams. The former Vanderbilt star climbed out of the depth chart depths thanks to injuries, suspensions and ineffectiveness from his cohorts, and he provided a big boost to fantasy owners who took him on a late-round flier or nabbed him on waivers.
Stacy took over as the starter in Week 5 and never looked back, amassing 1,114 total yards and eight touchdowns on the season. He averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game if we discount the one snap he got in Week 4, good for 18th in the league. That makes him a valuable commodity heading into 2014, right?
Not so fast.
On most other teams, Stacy might be “just another guy.” There was a reason he was drafted in the fifth round, after all. Stacy was buried on the depth chart, an afterthought heading into camp behind Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson. Pead was suspended for Week 1—the beginning of his second consecutive disappointing season—and Richardson was injured and ineffective, leaving the Rams little choice but to give Stacy a shot.
Despite his rookie success, Stacy averaged a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry. That is a bit of a red flag for him heading into his second season, but it might not be as relevant as it seems. Take a look at other running backs who have averaged below 4.0 yards per carry as rookies since the merger in 1970.
Player | NFL Draft Round | Att | Yds | YPA | TD | Rec | Yds | TD | Points | PPG |
Matt Forte | 2 | 316 | 1238 | 3.92 | 8 | 63 | 477 | 4 | 241.5 | 15.1 |
LaDainian Tomlinson | 1 | 339 | 1236 | 3.65 | 10 | 59 | 367 | 0 | 210.3 | 13.1 |
Joe Cribbs | 2 | 306 | 1185 | 3.87 | 11 | 52 | 415 | 1 | 232.0 | 14.5 |
John Stephens | 1 | 297 | 1168 | 3.93 | 4 | 14 | 98 | 0 | 150.6 | 9.4 |
Bobby Humphrey | 1 | 294 | 1151 | 3.91 | 7 | 22 | 156 | 1 | 178.7 | 11.2 |
Willis McGahee | 1 | 284 | 1128 | 3.97 | 13 | 22 | 169 | 0 | 203.7 | 12.7 |
Karim Abdul-Jabbar | 3 | 307 | 1116 | 3.64 | 11 | 23 | 139 | 0 | 185.5 | 11.6 |
Robert Edwards | 1 | 291 | 1115 | 3.83 | 9 | 35 | 331 | 3 | 214.6 | 13.4 |
Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 280 | 1115 | 3.98 | 7 | 18 | 184 | 0 | 169.9 | 13.1 |
Rashaan Salaam | 1 | 296 | 1074 | 3.63 | 10 | 7 | 56 | 0 | 157.0 | 9.8 |
Ronald Moore | 4 | 263 | 1018 | 3.87 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 157.4 | 9.8 |
Errict Rhett | 2 | 284 | 1011 | 3.56 | 7 | 22 | 119 | 0 | 151.0 | 9.4 |
Boobie Clark | 12 | 254 | 988 | 3.89 | 8 | 45 | 347 | 0 | 181.5 | 13.0 |
Zac Stacy | 5 | 250 | 973 | 3.89 | 7 | 26 | 141 | 1 | 157.4 | 12.1 |
Leonard Russell | 1 | 266 | 959 | 3.61 | 4 | 18 | 81 | 0 | 128.0 | 8.0 |
Trent Richardson | 1 | 267 | 950 | 3.56 | 11 | 51 | 367 | 1 | 203.7 | 13.6 |
Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 247 | 947 | 3.83 | 7 | 28 | 213 | 2 | 162.0 | 10.1 |
Rodney Thomas | 3 | 251 | 947 | 3.77 | 5 | 39 | 204 | 2 | 143.1 | 8.9 |
Emmitt Smith | 1 | 241 | 937 | 3.89 | 11 | 24 | 228 | 0 | 182.5 | 11.4 |
Johnny Johnson | 7 | 234 | 926 | 3.96 | 5 | 25 | 241 | 0 | 146.7 | 10.5 |
Average | 177.9 | 11.5 |
Stacy has some nice company there, though there are also some infamous names in there, too. The one thing most of these players have in common is draft status—all but five were taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft, and Stacy is one of three taken after the fourth round. Here is how those running backs fared in the second season of their careers.
Player | Att | Yds | TD | YPA | Rec | Yds | TD | Points | Year 2 Difference | PPG |
Matt Forte | 258 | 929 | 4 | 3.6 | 57 | 471 | 0 | 158.0 | -83.5 | 9.9 |
LaDainian Tomlinson | 372 | 1683 | 14 | 4.5 | 79 | 489 | 1 | 305.2 | 94.9 | 19.1 |
Joe Cribbs | 257 | 1097 | 3 | 4.3 | 40 | 603 | 7 | 230.0 | -2.0 | 15.3 |
John Stephens | 244 | 833 | 7 | 3.4 | 21 | 207 | 0 | 146.0 | -4.6 | 10.4 |
Bobby Humphrey | 288 | 1202 | 7 | 4.2 | 24 | 152 | 0 | 177.4 | -1.3 | 11.8 |
Willis McGahee | 325 | 1247 | 5 | 3.8 | 28 | 178 | 0 | 170.5 | -33.2 | 10.7 |
Karim Abdul-Jabbar | 283 | 892 | 15 | 3.2 | 29 | 261 | 1 | 207.3 | 21.8 | 13.0 |
Robert Edwards* | 20 | 107 | 1 | 5.4 | 18 | 126 | 1 | 35.3 | -179.3 | 2.9 |
Marshawn Lynch | 250 | 1036 | 8 | 4.1 | 47 | 300 | 1 | 185.6 | 15.7 | 12.4 |
Rashaan Salaam | 143 | 496 | 3 | 3.5 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 76.0 | -81.0 | 6.3 |
Ronald Moore | 232 | 780 | 4 | 3.4 | 8 | 52 | 1 | 111.2 | -46.2 | 7.0 |
Errict Rhett | 332 | 1207 | 11 | 3.6 | 14 | 110 | 0 | 195.7 | 44.7 | 12.2 |
Boobie Clark | 99 | 312 | 5 | 3.2 | 23 | 194 | 1 | 86.6 | -94.9 | 10.8 |
Leonard Russell | 123 | 390 | 2 | 3.2 | 11 | 24 | 0 | 47.4 | -80.6 | 4.3 |
Trent Richardson | 188 | 563 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 316 | 1 | 109.9 | -93.8 | 6.9 |
Knowshon Moreno | 182 | 779 | 5 | 4.3 | 37 | 372 | 3 | 159.1 | -2.9 | 12.2 |
Rodney Thomas | 49 | 151 | 1 | 3.1 | 13 | 128 | 0 | 33.9 | -109.2 | 2.1 |
Emmitt Smith | 365 | 1563 | 12 | 4.3 | 49 | 258 | 1 | 260.1 | 77.6 | 16.3 |
Johnny Johnson | 196 | 666 | 4 | 3.4 | 29 | 225 | 2 | 125.1 | -21.6 | 8.3 |
*Edwards' second season came four years after his rookie debut | Average | 148.4 | -30.5 | 10.1 |
While there were wild fluctuations from year-to-year that sometimes resulted in great seasons, inefficient rookies have tended to score fewer fantasy points in their second season. In this sample, backs scored 26.5 percent fewer points on average, though that is merely looking at raw scores. From a PPG perspective—given some backs dealt with injury in Year Two—they scored 1.4 fewer per game on average. That is not a terribly huge dropoff, yet it is statistically significant. If Stacy scores 1.4 fewer PPG, that would net him 10.7 on the 2014 season, not bad if he plays a full 16-game slate.
There is one name above that sticks out like turf toe: Trent Richardson. The former No. 3-overall pick had a fine rookie season from a fantasy standpoint, scoring 13.6 standard fantasy points thanks, in large part, to 11 rushing touchdowns. But his 3.6 YPC average should have been a siren for fantasy owners heading into last season, and he wound up incinerating rosters across the fantasy realm. He wound up dropping all the way to 6.9 standard PPG, a far cry from his lofty projections.
Of course, there is recency bias with Richardson. Some owners may be shying away from Stacy because of Richardson’s disastrous sophomore season, but that doesn’t mean subpar efficiency is a surefire disaster waiting to happen. Take LaDainian Tomlinson, for example—he averaged 3.65 yards per carry as a rookie, and we all know how that turned out.
Stacy was a bit more efficient than Richardson as a rookie, though, and his average draft position is far more palatable this year. He is currently being drafted as the 13th running back being taken near the 2/3 turn—unlike Richardson, who was a first-round bust last year.
Despite a solid rookie season, Stacy’s job is far from safe. The Rams went and drafted Tre Mason out of Auburn in the third round of the 2014 draft. While a third-round back supplanting a productive starter may seem far-fetched, the circumstances surrounding Mason’s fall into the third are important to remember. The entire running back class took a hit because the position has become devalued in recent years. Mason was arguably the best running back in the class, so his third-round status should provide little insight into whether he will be a serious challenger.
Consequently, the Rams may not feel terribly loyal to Stacy, having invested a mere fifth-round pick on him. A solid rookie season guarantees nothing if he falters during the preseason while Mason is trucking fools. Alright, so the likelihood Mason becomes Adrian Peterson is low, but he could very well outperform Stacy.
Mason is no slouch, having come out of Auburn with 24 total touchdowns last season. It’ll be interesting to see how he translates to the NFL having come from a run-oriented spread offense where he averaged 5.8 yards per carry—solid, but not great in terms of predicting success at the next level.
The rest of the offense remains a work in progress. The offensive line was ranked 12th in adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders, and the offense as a whole was ranked 22nd in DVOA. St. Louis was ranked smack in the middle of the pack in run blocking according to Pro Football Focus, as well, though that was the entire team's rating as opposed to just the offensive line. At any rate, there just wasn't much to write home about the Rams offense last season.
Part of the reason for the mediocre nature of that offense was Sam Bradford's absence. The former first-round pick missed over half the 2013 season due to injury, which hurt the offense as a whole. It's hard to move the ball with Kellen Clemens under center.
Bradford is back this season in a contract year, though. He was doing pretty well through the first seven games of the season before injury struck. Stacy averaged 4.3 yards per carry in the three games he started with Bradford still healthy. He averaged less than 3.8 yards per carry the rest of the way. How much having Clemens at quarterback affected the running game is difficult to quantify, but opposing defenses weren't exactly facing a superb aerial assault.
The offensive line should get a boost this offseason, too. The Rams drafted Greg Robinson No. 2 overall, and he should open as the Week 1 starter at left guard unless Jake Long isn't fully recovered. There are questions about Robinson's pass-blocking prowess, but there is no denying he is a fantastic run blocker. He was a road grader for Mason at Auburn, and he should improve the left side of the line for whoever is running the ball.
Positives
- The Rams should run the ball plenty in 2014, giving Stacy plenty of opportunity should he garner the majority of the carries.
- Stacy averaged 12.1 standard PPG as a rookie, and that number could easily go up now that he has a year of seasoning under his belt.
- Sam Bradford is back from injury and the offensive line should be improved.
Negatives
- Stacy averaged a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry as a rookie.
- A lackluster passing game could cause opposing defenses to stack the box.
- A low-round investment in Stacy could be less reason to stick with him in St. Louis.
- Tre Mason could play his way into a timeshare with Stacy or even a starting gig this preseason.
- The Rams play in the tough NFC West, and they've got a tough defensive schedule overall.
Projections
- 245 carries
- 1,025 yards
- 8 touchdowns
- 35 receptions
- 200 yards
- 1 touchdown
- 2 lost fumbles
- 172.5 standard fantasy points
- 207.5 PPR points
Stacy could well get over 300 touches if things go his way—he did get 249 carries in his 12 starts last season—but this seems like a reasonable projection given the odds Mason gets in on the mix. That kind of fantasy output would have made him a borderline RB1 in standard leagues and a solid RB2 in PPR formats last season.
Final Thoughts
Stacy’s value is a bit tricky right now. He could be a fantasy stud as a workhorse for the Rams, but there is legitimate concern about Stacy's ability to retain his workload or even his starting job. Even if he retains his status, he may not be a terribly effective fantasy back.
The risk is baked into his average draft position, however—a late-second-round valuation is appropriate. The good news is that most fantasy drafts happen in the weeks before Week 1, meaning we should have actionable intelligence on Stacy's immediate future. We have also seen that inefficiency as a rookie is not necessarily an indicator of future failure.
Other Viewpoints
Zac Stacy had 973 yards on 250 carries. That’s 3.9 yards per carry. Five carries for more than 20 yards. I am not a fan at all.
— Michael Beller (@MBeller) June 5, 2014
Rotoviz's Matthew Freedman thinks Jeff Fisher won't have much loyalty to Stacy going forward.
In his 18 years as a head coach, Fisher has had 19 rookie RBs on his rosters. He invests heavily and regularly in the position, often using top-100 picks on guys intended at first to be backups and then maybe short-term starters. He’s drafted only two RBs in the first round—Eddie George and Chris Johnson—and those are the only RBs of his ever to enjoy prolonged success as his starters or to submit top-12 positional finishes as rookies. Otherwise, in the absence of a first-round stud, a second- or third-round guy (often the previous year’s backup) generally serves as a one- or two-year starter before being replaced by another RB Fisher has drafted. He’s basically Mike Shanahan, except Fisher’s more of an in-season RB monogamist and his RBs aren’t quite as productive.
Michael Beller doesn't think Stacy is much of a threat in the red zone over at SI.com:
Given his lack of home-run ability, Stacy needs to do his scoring from a close range. However, there’s little reason to believe he has much room for growth in that regard this season. The Rams ran 141 plays in the red zone last year, 15th most in the league. Stacy got 58.2 percent of the team’s red-zone carries, which is just about the maximum a player can realistically get. For comparison’s sake, Adrian Peterson had 60 percent of Minnesota’s red-zone carries, while the Chiefs gave Jamaal Charles 58.3 percent of theirs. Stacy had plenty of opportunity last year, yet he turned that into just seven touchdowns. And don’t discount that the team plays six of its games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Cardinals, three of the toughest defenses in the league. That, too, will make it tough on a player whose best skill is the way he can run through contact.
Right now, Stacy is rubbing elbows with Giovani Bernard, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson and Antonio Brown on player rankings lists. That is, in a word, outrageous. Stacy will not live up to his draft-day price.
Looking at the #Rams, I really like Tre Mason over Zac Stacy as the top back there.
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) June 2, 2014
Daniel Kelley of SBNation has mixed feelings about Stacy going forward:
But the main takeaway, the lone truly interesting piece of the 2013 Rams, was that other running back, Zac Stacy. Stacy didn't start getting regular playing time until Week 5, but from then until the end of the season, he averaged 12.5 fantasy points a game, which over 16 games would have been good for sixth at the position in the league. Stacy maxed out at 29 fantasy points in a game, topped 20 twice, and reached double figures seven total times.
One way or another, success or failure, Stacy will qualify as "interesting" in 2014. The Rams have that bullet chambered. Beyond that, the question is whether Bradford can finally develop into someone fantasy owners need to consider, whether the wide-receiver triumvirate will develop.
ESPN.com's Nick Waggoner loves Stacy if he can stay healthy:
But it's hard to argue with the logic in expecting solid fantasy production from Stacy in 2014. As a rookie, he finished with 973 rushing yards and eight touchdowns to go with 141 receiving yards. All of that came in 14 games but he didn't become any sort of factor until Week 5. Projected over a full 16-game season, those numbers would certainly place him among the game's most productive backs.
Adding to that projection, Rams coach Jeff Fisher has made it clear that Stacy is expected to get upwards of 70 percent of the carries in what likely will be a run-first offense in 2014. That puts Stacy in prime position to be a breakout fantasy star.
Of course, if you're considering using a first-round pick on him, there are some potential drawbacks. Stacy had a knack for racking up nagging injuries in 2013. None of those cost him full games but they did keep Stacy out for extended periods of time within games. Stacy's 3.9 yards per carry were relatively pedestrian and greatly hampered by late-season trips to face the tough defensive fronts of the NFC West.
Kyle Soppe doesn't like Stacy's outlook over at PFF Fantasy:
I typically don’t read too much into the schedule, but St. Louis’ 2014 projects about as bad as it gets for a “stud” running back. They have a Week 4 bye, a red flag as the regular season winds down and the fantasy postseason heats up.
Included in that stretch of 13 games in 13 weeks, is an absolutely brutal month-long stretch starting in the middle of October. The Rams host the 49ers and Seahawks before going on a three-game road trip where they visit the Chiefs, 49ers, and Cardinals. Think he is going to be a little beat up after those five consecutive games?
St. Louis’ offensive line graded out as the eighth worst run-blocking unit in the NFL last season, a trend that is worrisome given the physical nature of this division. The blocking troubles can be attributed in part to the lack of respect shown for Sam Bradford, a trend that isn’t going to change after last season.