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Jimmy Graham, how do I love thee? Let me count the ways. I love the to the depth and breadth and height… of your targets. My soul can reach, when feeling out of sight, for I have NFL red zone.
You get the picture.
Fantasy owners can breathe a sigh of relief now that the whole tight end-wide receiver kerfuffle is settled. Those who already owned Graham in dynasty or early redraft leagues won’t have to wring their hands over a positional change, enjoying the returns the Saints stud has brought them in recent years.
Simply put, Jimmy Graham is the man at tight end, the only one truly worthy of his lofty fantasy draft status. The Saints felt the same way about him in the real world, inking him to a big four-year, $40 million extension after his protracted franchise tag fight to keep creating mismatches in that powerful offense. How could they tempt fate?
Having Drew Brees for a quarterback helps, of course. That beauty of a quarterback has had the New Orleans Saints offense humming for years, and Graham has been a big beneficiary. Here is a snapshot of the Saints passing game alongside Graham’s statistics over the past three seasons.
Saints Passing Stats | Jimmy Graham's Stats | ||||||||||
Year | Comp. | Att. | Yards | TD | Tgts | Rec. | Yards | Y/R | TD | Tgt % | TmTD % |
2011 | 472 | 662 | 5347 | 46 | 167 | 99 | 1310 | 13.2 | 11 | 25.2% | 23.9% |
2012 | 423 | 671 | 4997 | 43 | 135 | 85 | 982 | 11.6 | 9 | 20.1% | 20.9% |
2013 | 446 | 651 | 4918 | 39 | 142 | 86 | 1215 | 14.1 | 16 | 21.8% | 41.0% |
Averages | 447 | 661.3 | 5087.3 | 42.7 | 148 | 90 | 1169 | 13.0 | 12 | 22.4% | 28.1% |
Those last two columns are the percentage of team targets and team passing touchdowns Graham has seen over the past three seasons. The big tight end is clearly a focal point of his offense—he was second in the league at his position last season in both categories. Carolina’s Greg Olsen and San Francisco’s Vernon Davis led the league in those respective categories last season, but there is one big difference between Graham and those two—volume. New Orleans was the fourth-pass-happiest team in the league last season; Carolina and San Francisco were third-least and least, respectively.
In other words, Graham is not only a big part of his offense, but his offense runs a ton of passing plays. Hence, his target share is much larger than other tight ends in the league.
Grabbing Graham comes at a price nearly too terrible to pay, however. If you want him, you will likely need to draft him in the first round. He is currently being drafted as such according to consensus average draft position (ADP). Is he worth the investment? Naturally, there are two sides to this coin.
On the one hand, drafting a tight end that early will put you behind the eight ball elsewhere. He is liable to be taken in the first round of any draft, though you may get lucky in standard leagues. If he does fall into the second, he won’t last but a few picks, and you are certainly not going to get him in the second round of a PPR or FFPC league, which gives tight ends 1.5 points per reception. A draft slot in the top half of the first round means you will likely be eschewing an elite running back to draft Graham. The bottom half of the first round means you will be giving up an elite receiver or a quality running back, but you will likely be pushed into your second tier at running back regardless.
On the other, Graham will likely give your fantasy squad a supreme advantage at the tight end position. In PPR formats, he has outscored the next-best tight end by a wide margin in two of the past three seasons—87.7 in 2013 and 79.5 in 2011. That comes out to 5.2 points per game (PPG) over the course of a 16-game season—89.9 and 5.6, respectively, in FFPC formats. For reference, last year’s 12th-best average—in other words the lowest number for a “starter”—was 11.8 PPG, attained by Charles Clay and Antonio Gates. Graham had a” down” year in 2012 and still led all fantasy scorers at the tight end position, though he only outscored Tony Gonzalez by 3.2 points that season. Rob Gronkowski actually beat Graham out in 2011, and he would be in this first-round conversation were it not for a litany of injuries over the past couple of years.
Positives
- Jimmy Graham is the best pass-catching tight end in the league.
- Drew Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
- Graham has missed one game in the past three years.
Negatives
- Graham is susceptible to the effects of kryptonite and a marshmallow and chocolate combo.
- Regression is coming—odds are long Graham gets even close to 16 receiving touchdowns again this season.
- Graham will likely cost a first-round pick, which could be problematic for other positions.
Projections
- 90 receptions
- 1,200 yards
- 10 touchdowns
- 180.0 standard fantasy points
- 270.0 PPR fantasy points
- 315.0 FFPC-scoring fantasy points
These fall close to his averages for the past three seasons, and they would have still landed him the top spot in fantasy scoring at his position last season. In standard leagues, he would have only been 19 points better than his nearest competitor—Vernon Davis—which is why his first-round ADP is likely not worth it. In PPR formats, however, he still would have outscored the next-best tight end by 54.2 points, or 3.4 PPG.
Final Thoughts
That is a whole lot of words and numbers that boil down to one thing—Graham is by far the best fantasy option at tight end, and having him in your starting lineup gives you an instant advantage over your opponent. There is certainly risk in this strategy, but the reward is worthwhile if Graham performs as expected.
Other Viewpoints
Participated in at least a dozen mock #FantasyFootball drafts so far & in EVERY ONE TE #JimmyGraham has gone in the 1st Rd / Pre 8th pick!
— AnitaMarks (@AnitaMarks) July 31, 2014
NFL.com’s Michael Fabiano thinks Graham is the only tight end who warrants a first-round selection in PPR formats:
Graham, one of the toughest offensive skill position players to defend in the entire league, led all tight ends in fantasy points a season ago. He's also averaged 190 points over the last three seasons, making him more of a No. 1 fantasy wide receiver (based on the numbers) than a traditional tight end.
His level of success has been so massive, in fact, that Graham is the lone player at his position who warrants a first-round pick in both standard and PPR formats. He won't last beyond the first 15 picks in most drafts.
The next best player at the position is Rob Gronkowski, as long as he suffers no setbacks in his return from major knee reconstruction. However, his proneness to injuries in recent seasons makes Gronkowski more of a third- or fourth-rounder depending on the size of your league.
Fantasy people: Is it insane to take Jimmy Graham at #1 overall in PPR?
— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) July 30, 2014
Rotoviz’s Shawn Siegele agrees that Graham gives a massive advantage at his position:
The most obvious reason to draft Graham is the point differential advantage one would get compared to other owners. On average the top tight end scores 16 percent more points than the next highest scorer at the position. The RB1 can only boast an advantage of 13 percent on average. Trying to figure out which running back will give you that advantage on a year-to-year basis is another problem in and of itself. No RB has finished in the top spot in back-to-back years since 2007. To put things into further context, Graham gave owners a 3.5 ppg advantage over Julius Thomas the TE2 last season. That number went up to over 8.1 ppg when compared to the TE12.
For the next three years, who would you rather have for a flex PPR position? Jimmy Graham or Brandon Marshall?
— Shane P. Hallam (@ShanePHallam) July 26, 2014
Dustin Hockensmith of PennLive.com also thinks Graham offers a massive statistical advantage at his position:
Graham lines up everywhere as the latest in a line of offensive innovations from head coach Sean Payton. He's a unique weapon as a hybrid tight end/wide receiver who routinely matches up with both defensive backs and linebackers. In either case, Graham has either a size or speed advantage.
...
Statistically, Graham offers a bigger weekly advantage over his peers than any other player in many fantasy football formats, a list that includes first-round competition Calvin Johnson and Peyton Manning. Tight end depth can fade quickly, especially this season with Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez no longer in the mix and veterans Vernon Davis and Jason Witten beginning to fade.
Graham might not be a traditional first-round pick with the likes of Johnson, Manning or Marshawn Lynch still on the board, but he certainly merits consideration in the middle of the first round.