Going from a future Hall of Famer to a second-year veteran fighting for his job is going to sting. No matter how well Eric Decker plays, Geno Smith is no Peyton Manning. The question is how it will affect his fantasy football performance.
| Player | Age | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | TD% | Int | Int% | Y/A | Rating |
| Manning | 37 | 450 | 659 | 68.3 | 5477 | 55 | 8.3 | 10 | 1.5 | 8.3 | 115.1 |
| Smith | 23 | 247 | 443 | 55.8 | 3046 | 12 | 2.7 | 21 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 66.5 |
The dropoff from Manning to Smith is laughably obvious. Manning set the NFL on fire last season, shattering passing records while leading the Broncos to the highest scoring offense in league history. The Jets had the fourth-fewest passing attempts in the league last season, and it wasn’t because the offense was highly efficient like the three teams with fewer—Seattle, San Francisco and Carolina.
Even with a second-year improvement from Smith, he has the same chance to replicate Manning’s numbers as I do. Not only is the second-year quarterback a poor man’s version of a Peyton Manning knockoff, but his offense isn’t going to be nearly as prolific regardless. Denver ran 1,156 plays last season to New York’s 1,020, and there is little reason to believe the Jets will even approach the former’s gaudy number.
Of course, Decker could see an increase in fantasy scoring opportunities despite a decrease in offensive plays. That is the benefit of going from an offense with an embarrassment of riches to one with a dearth of talent at skill positions.
The downside is that opposing defenses will no longer be concerned with the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas on top of Decker. Instead, the passing attack in New York features such sarcastically amazing options as Stephen Hill, Jeremy Kerley and Jeff Cumberland. Routinely commanding the attention of opposing secondaries could nullify any advantage he might have in being the top dog in that passing offense. Then there is the fact Decker garnered 136 targets last season—exactly how many more plays the Broncos ran than the Jets, incidentally—good for 17th in the league at wide receiver. If the Jets even pass that much, how realistic is it that Decker gets significantly more targets than a year ago?
The good news is that Decker is being utterly disrespected in fantasy circles. Yet again. He is currently being drafted as the 33rd wide receiver off the board, which seems insane for a guy who has finished in the top 10 at his position in consecutives seasons. Of course, the aforementioned move from Manning to Smith has plenty to do with it, but Decker is a fine receiver with or without his future Hall of Fame quarterback tossing him the ball. Take a gander at this film study after Decker torched the Kansas City Chiefs for four touchdowns last season. Aside from having Manning at the helm, Decker showed the ability to separate against press coverage and beat his man deep.
Here is an excerpt of my instant fantasy reaction after he signed with the Jets.
There is some glimmer of hope, however. There was NFL life before Manning for Decker, believe it or not — a full season when he had the likes of Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow throwing to him in a run-heavy offense. He caught 44 passes on 91 targets for 613 yards and a healthy eight touchdowns that season, his second in the league. Smith and Sanchez are far better passers than Tebow.
Decker is a pretty good receiver in his own right, too. His overall +16.9 rating was 11th-best in the league last season, part of a positive trend we have seen from him over the past three seasons. Despite all the receiving talent in Denver last season, Decker garnered the second-most targets on the team with 135, which he converted to 87 catches for 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns. As the top receiver in New York, he could garner a similar target count next season, even if the Jets pass far less than the Broncos did last season.
Indeed, Decker’s upward trajectory began in Denver’s pre-Manning era, with Orton and Tebow at the helm.
| Targets | T/G | Rec% | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Points | PPR | |
| 2011 | 94 | 5.9 | 46.8 | 44 | 612 | 13.9 | 8 | 109.2 | 153.2 |
| 2012 | 122 | 7.6 | 69.7 | 85 | 1064 | 12.5 | 13 | 184.4 | 269.4 |
| 2013 | 136 | 8.5 | 64 | 87 | 1288 | 14.8 | 11 | 194.8 | 281.8 |
Decker struggled with drops at times with the Broncos, but he was solid far more often than not. The 6'3", 214-pound receiver will be a nice target for the Jets, particularly in the red zone. He should be a draft-day target for fantasy owners everywhere.
Positives
- Decker is going to be the top receiving option in New York
- He has blossomed into a quality receiver in his own right over the past few seasons
Negatives
- Geno Smith. ‘Nuff said.
- Opposing defenses can key on Decker far more than they could when he was in Denver
- New York’s offense is likely going to run far fewer plays than Denver did last season
Projections
- 75 receptions
- 950 yards
- 8 touchdowns
- 143.0 standard fantasy points
- 218.0 PPR fantasy points
This may not seem like a great line, but it would have been good for 18th in standard and 19th in PPR leagues last season. It is also in line with reality, given everything we have discussed.
Final Thoughts
Despite the dropoff from Manning to Smith, Decker should still be drafted much higher than he is currently being taken. Decker is a strong WR2 candidate that is being drafted as a borderline WR3 on average. Jump on him in the middle rounds for some nice value.
Other Viewpoints
I just gloss right over #NYJ Eric Decker on my cheatsheet. Kinda like how I squint walking past naked men in the gym locker room.
— JUM (@Johnny_U_Miller) July 25, 2014
Dom Constantino of NJ.com says Decker is already looking the part for the Jets:
Eric Decker looked terrific. The ex-Broncos wideout showed exactly why the Jets made him the first outside free agent they landed this offseason. Decker caught everything thrown his way and ran his routes routinely and with precision. He also made a tremendous catch over cornerback Dee Milliner on a deep ball. Vick may have explained it best: "You can just tell that him working with Peyton (Manning) over the last couple of years has helped him blossom as a receiver. He’s certainly being rewarded for that. I’m glad he’s on this team. He’s going to help Geno a lot."
Geno Smith calls Eric Decker a "crafty" WR & says his commitment to proper technique is "rubbing off on the rest of the guys."
— Kimberly Jones (@KimJonesSports) July 26, 2014
SI.com’s David Gonos thinks Decker is overvalued:
Decker has been a fantasy favorite over the past few years for a few reasons, but being on the other end of Peyton Manning's passes was obviously the biggest one. Even before Manning came to the Rocky Mountains, Decker was a useful fantasy player with Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton throwing to him. He scored eight touchdowns in 2011, his sophomore season, and that's why people are snatching Decker up as early as the seventh round in 12-team leagues.
But can a Jets wide receiver finish with top-30 numbers for a wide receiver? That remains to be seen. Decker does well in the red zone, but how often will the Jets get down there -- and how many of those scoring chances will end up going to the running backs or even to Smith?
A certain popular site has Sammy Watkins ranked nine spots above Eric Decker in re-draft. OK.
— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) July 5, 2014
Chris Harris of ESPN.com echoed some sentiments from above:
I'm not saying Smith won't get better in Year 2. Plus if he stays healthy, as the Jets' top WR Decker will almost assuredly eclipse his career-high 136 targets from 2013. He can make big plays that win you weeks, and there will be some high marks in 2014. Heck, Jeremy Kerley had three double-digit fantasy-point days last year.
But, boy, a whole lot would have to improve in Gotham to see Decker reach 1,000 yards this season. He'll need a big change for the better at quarterback -- and that's true even if the Jets sign and start injury-prone Michael Vick -- and he'll have to show he can handle more defensive attention.
