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We have hit another treacherous week in the NFL, one where six teams are on a bye. With the clock ticking on many trade deadlines and fantasy seasons, a well-executed trade may be your saving grace.
With that in mind, let's dive in to this week's Fantasy Exchange.
Buy
Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago Bears
PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
102.4 | 1.04 | 2.21 | 22.1% | 51.5% | 12.4% |
It has been a rough second quarter of the season for Chicago Bears fans and Brandon Marshall’s fantasy owners alike. The team is currently in freefall, and any fantasy teams who have stubbornly started Marshall over the past several weeks might be in a similar boat.
Perhaps now is the best time to throw them a “lifeline” as the Bears enter their bye week. His fantasy owners might be desperate for a Week 9 starter, and they have already experienced Marshall’s downside. Meanwhile, you and I both know Marshall is going to get his—he is still the No. 1 receiver on an offense that should bounce back, and Marshall is capable of going off for multiple touchdowns on any given Sunday.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
115.9 | 0.86 | 5.33 | 56.6% | 11.5% | 32.2% | -1.4% | 24.0% |
Where has the Beast gone? Right now it seems like Marshawn Lynch is hibernating. While he certainly hasn’t been his usual animalistic self on the field, some of this has had to do with the general offensive funk in Seattle.
Make no mistake, however—Lynch is still the man, and he will demand a big share of the fantasy pie. Don’t take my word for it, though.
Asked Carroll about getting away from running Lynch so much (42 carries last 3 games): "By time year is over, he'll have run it a ton again"
— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) October 29, 2014
That makes a ton of sense, especially for a team that needs to move the ball. The Oakland Raiders should be a perfect remedy for Lynch this coming Sunday, meaning you should probably look to buy low on him soon. Much like Keenan Allen last week, the window is closing on a guy you could reasonably nab at a discount.
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
144.5 | 1.10 | 4.19 | 26.9% | 63.9% | 16.2% |
It was another disappointing week for Julio Jones owners despite a pretty good start.
The Atlanta Falcons looked like they were on the plane back to the States after halftime, however, and Jones owners were left out in the cold once again as a result. The entire offense was a steaming pile of failure in the second half after looking like they might put up 50 with the way they moved the ball in the first quarter.
We have been expecting Jones to shake off the malaise for some time now, and he should eventually do it in a big way. His schedule down the stretch is especially promising, not to mention Jones is still an elite receiver. His offense is hurting him, but bet on a big second half for Atlanta's No. 1 receiver.
Rashad Jennings, RB New York Giants
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
73.5 | 0.71 | 4.67 | 42.7% | 5.7% | 31.8% | 7.8% | 15.3% |
We are approaching the week when Rashad Jennings should have returned from his sprained MCL. Unfortunately, we will have to wait a little longer as Jennings has been ruled out of Monday’s action.
His replacement—rookie Andre Williams—has been underwhelming, perhaps a bit of an albatross around the neck of that offense. He can’t catch the ball, he has been inefficient with his touches and the Giants have been forced to utilize Peyton Hillis in critical situations because of Williams’ lackluster pass-blocking ability.
In other words, Jennings cannot come back soon enough. When he does, he will retain the workload he saw before the injury—assuming he is fully healthy—and that means a ton of touches for a guy who was heading for a top-10 fantasy season.
Trent Richardson, RB, Indianapolis Colts
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
84.1 | 0.67 | 2.88 | 43.7% | 6.8% | 24.0% | 22.6% | 11.3% |
Trent Richardson has been surprisingly good—not great—this season, but a recent injury may have struck fear into his fantasy owners. Take advantage of that fear.
Despite his counterpart Ahmad Bradshaw’s success this season, Richardson has been a huge part of the Colts offense. He has garnered 24 percent of the team’s fantasy scoring opportunities prorated from the games he has played, and his injury is probably not so severe that it will affect that once he is healthy enough to actually get on the field.
Bobby Rainey, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
80.7 | 0.90 | 2.56 | 42.2% | 11.7% | 22.2% | -4.7% | 19.1% |
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
70.6 | 1.09 | 2.30 | 20.5% | 59.5% | 2.7% |
Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
73.7 | 0.73 | 1.84 | 27.2% | 40.0% | 2.7% |
Break up the Buccaneers! Wait a minute, that’s backward.
Tampa Bay isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard these days, but all that does is make for a bunch of cheap buys.
Bobby Rainey is a particularly interesting and cheap one. Doug Martin has done nothing to prove he is worthy of significant playing time—healthy or not—while Rainey has done everything well except hold onto the ball. Perhaps that's why he's garnered over 22 percent of Tampa Bay's fantasy scoring opportunities in games played.
The receivers, meanwhile, are a maddening bunch, sometimes having big games while disappearing for others. Both Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson are talented big men who are big end zone targets, however, and their schedule lightens considerably over the next few weeks. Tampa Bay squares off against Cleveland, Atlanta, Washington and Chicago over the next four weeks, three of which have been rather generous to opposing receivers.
Percy Harvin, WR, New York Jets
Week 9 | PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
8.0 | 0.56 | 2.67 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 22.3% |
We have reached the ocean floor with Percy Harvin, though some may think that happened weeks ago.
It was more of the same for the newly minted New York Jet as he scored a handful of fantasy points in his debut against the Buffalo Bills. The Jets offense was generally abhorrent, and Harvin could do little to stem the bleeding. There was a ray of hope in that putrid offensive showing, however—Harvin was more than a prop.
Despite head coach Rex Ryan’s proclamation the Jets would ease Harvin into action, the dynamic receiver saw one-third of the team’s targets on the day. He also carried the ball four times for 28 yards, something we can expect on a weekly basis.
The fact he was targeted nine times on just 45 offensive snap counts is promising indeed. His owners might be willing to give him up for next-to-nothing, and you would be getting a dynamic receiver that could see a ton of touches in the second half of the season.
Hold
Denard Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
55.6 | 0.67 | 1.15 | 37.2% | 5.2% | 16.5% | 3.4% | 11.4% |
We needed a little more flow from Denard Robinson after his big performance against the Cleveland Browns in Week 7. We got it last week.
Robinson retained his role as the lead back despite some reported concerns about his workload. Toby Gerhart made his return from injury and Jordan Todman was the pass-catching option, but it was Robinson who got the start and the exctended workload.
More importantly, he looked good against a Miami Dolphins defense that had given up 100 yards to a running back just one other time this season. Robinson gained 108 on 18 carries for a sparkling average of 6.0 yards per carry. More importantly, it was the second consecutive game Robinson got above 29 percent of his team’s fantasy scoring opportunities, a good sign for his long-term viability as a fantasy starter.
Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
37.3 | 2.53 | 4.28 | 15.8% | 58.3% | 14.3% |
His debut could have been a fluke. His follow-up game told us it wasn’t.
Of course, to expect Martavis Bryant to score a touchdown every game would be silly. But we saw what the Pittsburgh Steelers have in store for the big rookie.
Bryant saw 14.2 percent of his team’s targets, converting 71.4 percent of them for 83 yards and two touchdowns in a bloodbath against the Colts. It may not be a huge target percentage, but that is a nice number for a rookie who just claimed the No. 3 job.
Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions
PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
153.4 | 1.23 | 5.37 | 26.8% | 68.8% | 12.4% |
It’s easy to look at Golden Tate and say he is going to fall off dramatically once Calvin Johnson returns. After all, a Megatron has to eat, right? True, Tate’s usage will likely be impacted. How much is the question.
After all, Tate has been superb in lieu of Johnson, who has been dealing with injury for half the season. He has seemingly earned quarterback Matthew Stafford’s trust. His target percentage is up to 26.8 on the season as a result, having been above 30 with Johnson out.
That number will likely settle in around 25 percent on the year assuming Megatron comes back strong and stays that way, which should still make Tate valuable. In fact, he is liable to see some big games by mere fact opposing defenses will have to pick their poison in the passing game.
Andrew Hawkins, WR, Cleveland Browns
PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
51.1 | 0.66 | 2.16 | 30.8% | 58.5% | -20.5% |
Quietly, Andrew Hawkins has become a solid fantasy option this season. He has made this article before, and Hawkins has begun to produce consistently—particularly in PPR formats. The past couple of weeks have seen Hawkins catch 12 passes out of 18 targets for 200 yards and a score.
He may not be a big name or even talked about much in the fantasy community, but Hawkins could be a huge difference maker as we navigate these last bye weeks.
Sell
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
You might recall that a certain column recommended you buy low on Tom Brady after his nightmarish foray into Arrowhead Stadium. He has only been the top-scoring quarterback in the league since then.
The jig might be up, however. At least as far as being the top scorer in all the fantasy land.
New England’s schedule stiffens up a bit over the next three weeks, starting with a home jaunt against Brady rival Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. True, they have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, but a big reason for that is the 152 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown they have allowed to the likes of Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Andrew Luck this season. Tom Brady will be lucky to get five rushing yards.
Beyond that, Brady faces an Indianapolis Colts team that had been the second stingiest against quarterbacks before losing stud cornerback Vontae Davis for a day against Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers and a Detroit Lions defense that is the stingiest in the league.
Dwayne Allen, TE, Indianapolis Colts
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
90.6 | 1.96 | 1.13 | 10.0% | 62.9% | 32.0% |
The Indianapolis Colts are a funny lot in the fantasy realm.
On the one hand, usage numbers have been red flags for some players all season long. On the other, it hasn’t mattered much. Dwayne Allen is one such player.
Quarterback Andrew Luck just doesn’t throw him the ball very often, comparatively speaking. Allen garners just 10 percent of his team’s targets on the season. He got just two last game, converting one of them for a 21-yard touchdown. It's a wonder Allen is in the top 10 in fantasy scoring—he is heavily touchdown dependent, as evidenced by his paltry 1.13 FP shares despite a healthy point total. If those touchdowns start to dry up, Allen's fantasy output is going to be ugly.
Need More Flow
Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
43.2 | 1.44 | 0.54 | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.9% |
Last week marked the second time Theo Riddick got significant playing time with Reggie Bush out injured, and he proved rather useful once again. The question is whether he has carved out a bigger role in that offense once Bush is fully healthy again.
The Detroit Lions are on a bye this week, giving Bush time to get right. Despite the hopes and dreams of many fantasy owners, this would likely shunt Riddick into a piece of a timeshare at best.
Jonas Gray, RB, New England Patriots
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
9.8 | 0.49 | 0.74 | 8.9% | 0.0% | 15.1% | 9.4% | 1.6% |
New England’s latest running back to make waves in the fantasy football realm was on the practice squad a scant few weeks ago. So how much should you invest in him if he is available?
Probably not much, but he is worth keeping an eye on and a waiver wire flier if you need some depth at the position. He might be worth trading for as a handcuff for Shane Vereen if you own the latter.