Luck certainly plays a part in fantasy football success, but only the adroit owners will taste success on a consistent basis.
Deft traders and limber high (waiver) wire performers have a distinct advantage, and that is why you are here. Got a question about who to trade for or away? You've come to the right place.
Buy
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 40.2 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 13.9% | 60.9% | -0.1% |
By now Vernon Davis owners must have chunks of hair falling off their heads, or at least greying like a U.S. president.
To put it simply, the veteran tight end has been awful since being injured early this season, and he has added the dropsies to his list of maladies. Whoever drafted Davis might have stuck with him all this time in a vain attempt to squeeze value out of that pick, but now he heads into the Week 8 bye having failed his owners completely.
There isn’t a lot to like from Davis after the past several weeks, but now might be a perfect time to float a lowball trade offer for the 49ers tight end. Despite his odious performances, Davis still owns a FP shares above 1.0 on the season. A restful bye week might be just what the doctor ordered to get Davis fully recovered and back on track, and his owner might be desperate to get rid of him for some value.
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 134.7 | 1.11 | 4.66 | 27.3% | 63.6% | 21.4% |
Do you smell that? It’s the scent of fear coming from Julio Jones owners, dismayed their stud receiver has fallen off a cliff along with the rest of the Atlanta Falcons offense.
Like a savvy predator, owners should prey on that fear. Jones has been a bitter pill the past couple of weeks, mustering just nine receptions for 124 yards, and he hasn't scored wince Week 3. Predictably, he is still getting a massive percentage of his team’s targets—20 in that span, which would normally yield far better production—so there isn't too much to worry about just yet.
Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 69.4 | 0.69 | 1.31 | 22.1% | 66.7% | -0.5% |
Where has Keenan Allen gone?
That is the question many fantasy owners are asking these days as the second-year receiver continues to disappoint in the fantasy realm. Allen has failed to score a touchdown this season after breaking out with eight scores as a rookie last season. His dry spell has been a bane to his fantasy owners’ teams, likely costing many a victory over the first seven weeks of the season.
It has been enough to cause many owners to give up, or so social media says. What gives?
Part of the problem has been a sheer dearth of red zone looks for Allen. Everything in that area seems to be going to the tight ends or the running backs, and the Chargers have been rather successful at scoring. Why change?
Allen has seen a few looks in the end zone, however, none of which have panned out. Yet.
More importantly, Allen’s target count remains healthy. He is currently garnering 7.3 targets a game, good for 22.1 percent of the take in San Diego. That may not be an elite number, but it certainly should have produced WR2 numbers thus far.
He may not get back to eight, but the touchdowns will come for Allen. More importantly, his usage indicates a general increase in fantasy scoring is on the horizon. Grab him while you can.
Alfred Morris, RB, Washington
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 70.9 | 0.58 | 2.81 | 67.6% | 2.7% | 27.7% | 3.5% | 13.4% |
It seems the Washington run game has bitten the dust, at least if you are looking at the past few weeks.
Alfred Morris has been nonexistent in the run game, absconded by an abhorrent defense, a slow-starting offense and a tough schedule. He has averaged a mere 2.8 yards per carry over his last three games, amassing just 142 total yards in that span. The schedule doesn't improve much the rest of the way, a fact you can use to exploit his fantasy owner in a trade.
Morris is still a focal point in the offense, as evidenced by the fact he is garnering 27.7 percent of the team's fantasy scoring opportunities. Buying low on him is banking on a turnaround, to be sure, but he has help on the way—quarterback Robert Griffin III is nearly fully recovered from his ankle injury. A healthy and productive Griffin—both big assumptions, in fairness—should open things up for Morris and the running game.
Hold
Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 103.1 | 0.90 | 3.70 | 42.4% | 11.4% | 25.1% | 7.7% | 19.0% |
Before the season began, saying Justin Forsett would be a top-five running back heading into Week 8 would have guaranteed you a trip to the fantasy looney bin. Yet here we are, pondering the meaning of life as Forsett sits fourth in rushing.
For a while it seemed like the Baltimore Ravens backfield would be a quagmire. Investing in Forsett, Bernard Pierce or Lorenzo Taliaferro was like trying to guess the lottery numbers. It seems those numbers were 3-6-7-7-3-8-8.
Granted, he’s not blowing away the competition in the fantasy realm, but he has certainly established himself as the main man in that backfield. He isn’t just getting the fantasy scoring opportunities—Forsett is getting over 25 percent of his team’s fantasy scoring opportunities on the year—he is capitalizing. He currently sits ninth in fantasy scoring, ahead of guys like Andre Ellington, Alfred Morris, Eddie Lacy and even Jamaal Charles.
(Don’t go trading any of those guys for Forsett, incidentally. Well, except maybe Morris.)
Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 65.7 | 0.67 | 3.25 | 65.8% | 11.7% | 29.7% | -9.4% | 18.3% |
Slowly, but surely, Darren McFadden is clawing his way back toward fantasy respectability.
The oft-maligned Raiders running back has quietly become the lead back in Oakland despite the presence of Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield. He hasn't been lights out or anything, but he is averaging 17 touches a game if we exclude Week 1. That is enough to remain fantasy-relevant, especially considering he is getting all the goal line work.
Sell
DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 171.2 | 0.80 | 11.30 | 79.6% | 12.1% | 46.2% | 9.4% | 31.6% |
Last week Julius Thomas headlined the “sell” portion of this article, and he wound up with 27 yards on four catches against the San Francisco 49ers. That is not to say DeMarco Murray will be in for a similar fate, but consider yourself warned.
In all seriousness, however, Murray is in a similar boat to Thomas in terms of reconciling past production with future output. He is currently on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s rushing record, and the statistics back up what we are seeing—the best running back in the league, at least in 2014. Murray looks the part, the question is whether he can hold up.
Much has been made about his touch count, which is also on pace to challenge a record—James Wilder’s 492 touches in 1984. For a guy who has been dogged with durability issues his entire career, this doesn’t seem likely. The Cowboys can and likely will reduce his workload, which will slacken his fantasy scoring pace. That is not to mention the injury concern as we hit the middle of the season.
That is why capitalizing on his insane value right now may be the best course of action. Yes, it may be a bit pusillanimous to defer concerns about future production, but you’re supposed to get a king’s ransom in return. Perhaps you are short-handed at receiver or elsewhere at running back—you could reasonably offer Murray for a couple of high-level assets.
You do run the risk of giving away this season’s most valuable asset of all, but there may not be a better time to do it.
Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 131.9 | 0.85 | 9.59 | 59.2% | 15.5% | 43.6% | -1.9% | 30.0% |
Arian Foster is another example of a guy whose usage might be cause for concern among his fantasy owners. After all, an injury would be entirely unsurprising given his history in recent years. He already missed a game due to a balky hamstring this season, returning to lackluster results the following week. Yet here he sits, on pace for nearly 400 touches. Does anyone expect him to get there?
He might be more difficult to move than Murray, given that history and the fact has not been quite as dominant. If an opportunity presents itself to grab a couple of great players in return for Foster, though, you would be remiss to ignore it.
Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 15.2 | 0.93 | 0.13 | 6.1% | 45.5% | 9.0% |
This is more selling on the performance given Amendola was likely un-owned heading into Week 8, but it’s clear his big touchdown reception was more fluke than good augur.
Amendola has been targeted a grand total of 11 times this season. Three of those came last week, so I suppose that could be construed as some sort of trend. The likelier scenario is that Amendola was merely lucky, doomed to go the way of Brian Tyms, who caught a touchdown in Week 6 and sink back into oblivion in Week 7.
The only consistent option in New England is Julian Edelman at receiver. Anything else is a roll at the roulette table, and Amendola has been an unlucky number throughout his tenure with the Patriots.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 47.8 | 1.18 | 0.87 | 13.9% | 65.4% | -6.1% |
Just in case the fact Davante Adams happened to score on his only target in Week 7 wasn’t obvious enough, here is reason to sell on his performance—the Packers rookie has just 0.87 FP shares on the season, despite
He has certainly overtaken Jarrett Boykin on the depth chart, but all the promise he showed back in Week 2 when he had five receptions for 50 yards has amounted to very little in the fantasy realm, amassing just 12 receptions for 138 yards in the five games since. His saving grace has been a couple of touchdowns, both of which happened to be the only catches he made in Weeks 5 and 7.
The Packers seem content to run the passing game through their two main receivers—Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb—who seem to get open with ease. Add in a 1-2 punch of Eddie Lacy and James Starks out of the backfield and you have a recipe for annoyance from guys like Adams and tight end Andrew Quarless.
Benny Cunningham, RB, St. Louis Rams
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 59.7 | 1.09 | 1.40 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 7.3% | 13.9% |
Benny Cunningham owners got lucky again last week.
True, he seems to have carved out a role as a passing down back for the St. Louis Rams, but were it not for a touchdown on a shovel pass inside the five-yard line, Cunningham’s output would have been far more pedestrian.
Tre Mason had his breakout game against the Seattle Seahawks, leaving Zac Stacy out in the cold in the process. Part of the reason for Stacy’s absence on the field was the fact he was still coming back from an injury, despite the fact he practiced.
After the game, head coach Jeff Fisher all but said Stacy would have an integral role if he’s fully healthy. With Mason’s emergence, where does that leave Cunningham?
Need More Flow
Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 20.7 | 0.86 | 1.91 | 14.8% | 0.5% | 18.4% | 7.3% | 4.8% |
Much like Zac Stacy did as a rookie in Week 5 of the 2013 season, Tre Mason broke out in Week 7.
The rookie out of Auburn sizzled with 85 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, carving through the Seattle Seahawks like they were the Jacksonville Jaguars. Granted, Seattle was down a couple of defensive starters, not to mention that defense hasn’t quite retained its elite status this season regardless.
Nonetheless, Mason impressed. The question is whether he impressed enough to carve out a big role in that backfield on a more permanent basis. Head coach Jeff Fisher was noncommittal to that notion after the game, instead talking about the “hot hand” approach and saying Stacy could be the guy next game. That’s despite Stacy garnering zero touches last week in spite of the fact he practiced. Stacy may not have been 100 percent after a Week 6 injury, but was that enough to warrant what amounted to a benching?
Mason is averaging 5.4 yards per carry in his two games of action, a gaudy number made more ostentatious by the fact Stacy is averaging just 3.9. A few more weeks of that and the job should be Mason’s, but we are at the mercy of Fisher’s whimsy.
Denard Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 42.8 | 0.68 | 0.89 | 32.7% | 5.2% | 14.5% | 2.1% | 10.0% |
Storm Johnson needed more flow after Week 6, and we got that last week when Johnson garnered a measly 8.7 percent of Jacksonville’s fantasy scoring opportunities. Of course, he scored a touchdown on one of those opportunities, salvaging what would’ve been a disastrous day otherwise.
Suddenly, Denard Robinson seems to be the man in Jacksonville. At least if we are going to take one week’s performance and run with it.
Gavin Escobar, TE, Dallas Cowboys
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | Vol/Avg |
| 33.5 | 2.94 | 0.27 | 4.9% | 77.8% | -7.8% |
Second-year tight end Gavin Escobar had himself a career day against hated division rivals last week.
The New York Giants came to town and got whooped, thanks in large part to Escobar’s exploits on offense. He caught a pair of touchdowns en route to fantasy football’s biggest day at the tight end position. The problem? Quarterback Tony Romo threw the ball his direction just three times, bringing his season total to a whopping nine targets. That’s not exactly encouraging for future use.
Still, Escobar has displayed his value as an athletic tight end capable of running the seam, something 32-year-old Jason Witten can only do in his dreams these days. The veteran is still the No. 1 tight end on the depth chart, but he looks like Frankenstein’s monster running out there.
That is not to say Witten won’t be valuable the rest of the way, but this could be the beginning of Escobar’s takeover. Or it could be one of those aberrations in the fantasy realm we see plenty throughout every season.
Paul Richardson Jr, WR, Seattle Seahawks
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 9.0 | 0.67 | 0.28 | 10.2% | 83.3% | -11.6% |
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 60.0 | 1.06 | 1.40 | 19.9% | 65.7% | -11.6% |
Percy Harvin is gone, banished to the AFC cellar in New York amidst swirling rumors of anger management issues and another alienated organization. Who would step up in his absence?
That’s not to say Harvin was an integral part of the Seahawks offense. All that offseason bluster amounted to 28.5 standard fantasy points and gnashing of teeth among his fantasy owners.
Whether or not Harvin’s departure truly benefits anyone in that offense will take some time to decipher, but it seems Doug Baldwin was a beneficiary on the surface. He had a huge game against the St. Louis Rams in a failed comeback bid. Part of the reason for his success was the fact the Seahawks needed to pass much more than they typically do—8.8 percent above the league average in passing attempts for Week 7, juxtaposed with 11.6 percent below the league average on the season.
Meanwhile, Paul Richardson Jr might just be the analogue to Harvin in that offense going forward. The speedy receiver out of Colorado saw a similar snap count to Harvin's before his exile, and he has the potential to replicate much of what Harvin brought to the table. Whether he realizes that potential or not is another matter, but he is a worthwhile stash in deep leagues. He certainly should be owned in dynasty leagues everywhere.
Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 12.0 | 2.00 | 1.96 | 13.7% | 40.0% | 9.8% |
Last week this column advised you to buy on Markus Wheaton in Pittsburgh. Who could have expected rookie Martavis Bryant to break out in his first action as a pro? Nobody expects the Martavis Bryant.
The former Clemson receiver was a personal favorite in a draft loaded with quality wide receivers, a rough in the diamonds so to speak. He possesses a great combination of size and speed, having run a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at 6’5” and 211 pounds. He was raw coming out of college, though, and an injury prolonged his debut date.
The rookie shined against the Houston Texans on Monday night, catching two of his five targets for 40 yards and a score. That touchdown was a 35-yard beauty in the back of the end zone that began a scoring deluge in the last 1:37 of the first half, one that propelled the Steelers to victory.
Bryant seems to have quickly become a viable option, particularly as a deep threat. He only caught two of his targets because most of them were deep shots. We don’t know if the Steelers plan on branching out his route tree, but it seems Bryant is worth a flier in deeper leagues.
Att% = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts that player received
Tgt%/GP = the percentage of a team's passing targets that player received in games played
Opp%GP = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts and targets combined that player received in games played
PPO = fantasy points per opportunity (PPR)
PPT = fantasy points per target (PPR)
TmPly/Avg = the number of plays the player's team ran versus the league average
TmAtt/Avg = the number of passing attempts the player's team ran versus the league average
FP Shares = the player's fantasy output crossed with his team usage
TmFP% = the percentage of a team's fantasy points scored by the player
