Things are heating up in the fantasy realm heading into Week 7.
By now your team has established itself as a contender or a pretender. Or, perhaps, you are one of those unfortunate souls with a high-scoring fantasy team that has run into high-scoring opponents.
At any rate, why miss out on opportunities to improve your team? Feast your eyes on this week's Fantasy Exchange and plan accordingly.
Buy
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 84.0 | 1.02 | 3.35 | 25.1% | 72.9% | 14.0% |
The touchdown floodgate has to open soon for Emmanuel Sanders, right?
The Broncos wide receiver has enjoyed success with his new team thanks to quarterback Peyton Manning, but he has yet to hit paydirt this season. His teammates have hogged all that glory, mitigating what Sanders has brought to the fantasy table. Until last week, Sanders did enough to stay fantasy relevant despite his lack of touchdowns. He had a down week against the New York Jets, however, and owners might be itching to get rid of him.
Despite his aversion to the end zone, Sanders currently ranks 24th in standard scoring at his position. Better yet, he boasts a healthy 3.35 FP shares in PPR leagues thanks to a healthy target percentage for the year.
With Julius and Demaryius Thomas stealing the show, now would be the time to quietly put out feelers for Sanders. Do it before it’s too late.
Jared Cook, TE, St. Louis Rams
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | Vol/Avg |
| 52.5 | 0.70 | 2.23 | 21.2% | 54.8% | 18.2% |
Jared Cook is currently the 17th-best fantasy tight end despite the fact he hasn’t gotten into the end zone. Of course, he had a golden opportunity a few weeks ago when he dropped a wide open pass for a touchdown, but that is ancient history in the 2014 fantasy season
Cook has been the most consistent receiving option in St. Louis outside Brian Quick, who had a quiet Week 6 as the San Francisco 49ers keyed in on the No. 1 receiver. The touchdowns may or may not come, but Cook is a worthwhile TE2 or bye week fill-in if you need one.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 38.5 | 1.33 | 3.96 | 18.6% | 2.3% | 20.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
Mark Ingram is back, but is he still better than ever?
The fourth-year running back had a hot preseason and a torrid first couple of games before injuring his hand. That injury kept him out of the past several weeks, pumping up value for Pierre Thomas, Khiry Robinson and even Travaris Cadet. Before his injury, however, Ingram was sporting a nice 3.96 FP shares despite splitting time in that backfield. He looked like a man renewed, and there is little reason to think he won't come back strong, much like Ben Tate did with the Cleveland Browns.
Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 38.4 | 0.58 | 2.41 | 41.7% | 5.8% | 25.1% | 7.7% | 9.1% |
There isn’t much to like about Montee Ball’s situation right now. His groin injury could keep him out for a few more weeks, and Ronnie Hillman is playing well in his stead. So why would you buy Ball?
Well, to put it simply, Ball will be dirt cheap. Heck, there are some advocating for fantasy owners to drop Ball altogether.
Before his injury, Ball was a big part of that Denver offense. Even though that didn’t translate to a ton of fantasy points early, he very well could retain that role once he returns, Hillman’s success notwithstanding. Considering he will have a lighter schedule late in the season—the Broncos face running back-friendly New England Patriots and Oakland Raiders the first couple of weeks in November, for example—grabbing ball at a heavy discount seems like a worthwhile gamble.
Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 53.2 | 0.75 | 1.07 | 17.6% | 61.5% | 10.0% |
Fantasy owners may be frustrated with Markus Wheaton to the point of dropping him. That makes him a cheap buy in a trade these days.
It’s not as if Wheaton is going to supplant Antonio Brown, but he did see more targets than Pittsburgh’s No. 1 receiver last week. The problem is he only converted four of those 11 targets into receptions for just 33 yards. He has to do better than that.
All in all, Wheaton got close to 2.0 FP shares despite his low fantasy output last week, a pretty good indicator that things might improve for him quickly. He sits at 1.07 for the season, so take last week with a grain of salt, but Wheaton would make for a cheap gamble with some upside depending on matchups.
Hold
Ben Tate, RB, Cleveland Browns
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 37.0 | 0.67 | 3.52 | 32.1% | 1.3% | 28.6% | 5.0% | 10.0% |
We didn’t know exactly what we were going to get when Ben Tate returned from injury. Rookies Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell played well in his place from the second he went down in Week 1; it seemed like Tate was destined for a timeshare upon his return.
That has been far from the case, however.
Tate saw an eye-popping 44.6 percent of Cleveland’s fantasy scoring opportunities last week, which helped his FP shares for Week 6 to fourth-best in the league at his position. Tate has clearly retained his role as a workhorse in that backfield on a team that is intent on running the ball. Unless you fear another injury—a reasonable concern given his history—hang onto Tate and ride him in your starting lineups.
Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 80.3 | 0.74 | 5.63 | 65.9% | 15.7% | 35.0% | 1.8% | 26.9% |
He is quickly rising up the fantasy leaderboard, and there is little reason you should sell on Andre Ellington at this point.
Ellington is posting one of the highest FP shares in the league at his position right now. He just hasn't had many big games, somehting he will rectify starting this weekend against the woeful Oakland Raiders run defense. The window to buy is short on Ellington, get in while you can.
Andre Holmes, WR, Oakland Raiders
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 59.9 | 1.55 | 3.55 | 19.5% | 51.7% | 11.0% |
He was a buy in this column last week, and that proved to be huge for anyone who may have started him in Week 6. Holmes went off for 121 yards and a pair of touchdowns, helping the hapless Raiders keep pace with division-leading San Diego Chargers. They fell short of victory, but Holmes established himself as the receiver to own out of Oakland going forward.
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 18.6 | 0.80 | 1.47 | 15.8% | 75.0% | 13.4% |
Jordan Reed is back, and he picked up where he left off.
Of course, he is an injury waiting to happen, but it seems that Reed easily overtook Niles Paul for his old role last week, posting a great line despite not scoring a touchdown. Reed was targeted 11 times, catching eight of those for 92 yards. Paul, meanwhile, was targeted just twice.
Reed’s FP shares were among the highest at his position for Week 6 despite the fact he didn’t get into the end zone. As long as he’s healthy, Reed should be trustworthy from a fantasy standpoint.
Sell
Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 105.7 | 2.72 | 3.32 | 15.7% | 80.0% | 14.0% |
You’ve found this year’s Jimmy Graham, a touchdown-scoring machine at tight end. So why would you sell Julius Thomas in your fantasy leagues?
For starters, his value is likely at its peak. Thomas has scored nine touchdowns this season and easily leads the league in fantasy scoring at his position. That should be valuable to fantasy owners who might be choosing between Vernon Davis and Ladarius Green.
More importantly, Thomas’ usage numbers are a bit troubling for a guy who leads the league in scoring. His FP shares are only good for fifth in the league despite all those touchdowns. Why is that? Because he is only being targeted on 15.7 percent of Denver’s passes this season, good for 10th in the league among tight ends who have played more than three games.
Of course, Thomas is going to be valuable to anyone who starts him by virtue of his starting quarterback, Peyton Manning. If those touchdowns start drying up, however, he could start to put up some nasty stat lines.
Trade Thomas only if you are getting a great return, otherwise you will be sacrificing a big advantage at the position.
Brandon Lafell, WR, New England Patriots
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 61.2 | 1.36 | 2.12 | 18.9% | 44.1% | 7.5% |
Have the New England Patriots finally found some consistency at wide receiver? Outside Julian Edelman, of course.
Tom Brady looked like he was falling off a cliff when he was merely base jumping, and Brandon LaFell has been a big reason why. The former Carolina Panther has come on strong in recent weeks, culminating with a big two-touchdown performance against the Buffalo Bills last week. Just how much should you bank on LaFell coming close to that strong performance, however?
LaFell scored a pair of touchdowns on just four receptions. Worse, he did it on just 16.2 percent of New England’s passing attempts. His FP shares for Week 6 were pretty good at 4.17, but that number is inflated by his touchdown count. Only DeSean Jackson and Torrey Smith—another mirage—had top 10 scoring outputs last week on less than 20 percent of team targets.
So, while it may seem that LaFell’s role is growing exponentially, take his performance with a grain of salt. His target percentage was right around his season average—15.7 percent—he just managed to get in a couple of big touchdowns.
Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 55.7 | 1.20 | 1.09 | 15.5% | 44.1% | 9.5% |
Plenty of expectations were laid at the feet of Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith before the season began. Those expectations weren’t met through the first five weeks of the season, but a date with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers seemed to be what the doctor ordered.
Parlay that big performance into a trade while you can. Smith is simply not worth the headache, as evidenced by his abysmal 1.09 FP shares on the season despite that two-touchdown outburst against the lowly Bucs.
Tim Wright, TE, New England Patriots
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 34.1 | 2.19 | 0.42 | 6.1% | 90.9% | 7.5% |
He has scored a touchdown in two consecutive games, but Tim Wright is throwing up red flags when it comes to his future valuation in the fantasy realm.
Consider this: Wright has played 85 snaps… the entire season. You might think most of those came in the past two weeks, when he has finally become fantasy relevant. True, he has seen an uptick in playing time, but that has amounted to 35 total snaps in those two games. That is not exactly encouraging for his projections going forward.
Now, the Patriots could certainly find ways to get him on the field more, but he is very much a backup tight end given all the data we have. That means his one reception for one yard and a touchdown last week should be taken with a spoonful of salt.
Benny Cunningham, RB, St. Louis Rams
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 43.8 | 0.91 | 1.23 | 26.6% | 7.1% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 12.0% |
The St. Louis backfield is a mess, and Benny Cunningham has been the garbage man, collecting the fantasy points scattered around like those rings when Sonic the Hedgehog hits an enemy.
Cunningham scored a touchdown last week courtesy of a goal line carry, but he did little else. Meanwhile, Zac Stacy is still getting touches despite general ineffectiveness, and rookie Tre Mason has started to grab a share of playing time in that backfield.
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 75.9 | 1.09 | 2.33 | 23.5% | 63.6% | -7.0% |
Brandon Lloyd, WR, San Francisco 49ers
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 31.9 | 1.56 | 0.59 | 10.3% | 43.8% | -7.0% |
It seemed like Michael Crabtree was going to put up a putrid fantasy line last week until a late touchdown on blown coverage saved his bacon and that of his fantasy owners.
Speaking of blown coverage, Brandon Lloyd had the mother of all unlikely touchdowns when he raced past Janoris Jenkins for a 80-yard touchdown with time winding down before halftime. Lloyd has made several big catches for the 49ers this season aside from that defensive debacle by the Rams, but his usage is problematic.
Crabtree is certainly worth owning over Lloyd, but he seems to have limited upside in that offense. For a supposed No. 1 receiver, Crabtree's 2.33 FP shares aren't spectacular—Anquan Boldin holds 2.44 shares, comparatively. It might be worth selling on the name and the Week 6 performance if you can.
Need More Flow
Storm Johnson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 11.4 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 11.9% | 0.5% | 12.3% | -0.2% | 3.2% |
It was a golden opportunity for Storm Johnson, the late-round rookie out of UCF.
Toby Gerhart has been an abject disappointment in Jacksonville thus far, and an injury shelved the Jaguars running back in Week 6. Johnson got his chance to shine against the Tennessee Titans, and he had mixed results. He scored a touchdown but was generally ineffective in his role.
He is worth rostering for now, but Johnson may never pan out as a viable fantasy starter.
Brian Tyms, WR, New England Patriots
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 11.3 | 5.15 | 1.80 | 5.6% | 50.0% | 7.5% |
As we already covered, Brady is rebounding in a big way from the abysmal first quarter he had to start the 2014 season. Brian Tyms was part of that seeming renaissance in Week 6, hauling in a beautiful catch for a 43-yard touchdown. His catch
The problem was Tyms was on the field for just eight snaps and saw just one target, which he happened to convert into a touchdown. That's not exactly encouraging from a prognostication standpoint—Tyms is no Antone Smith, catching long touchdown passes once a week. Well, as far as we know, anyway.
Att% = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts that player received
Tgt%/GP = the percentage of a team's passing targets that player received in games played
Opp%GP = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts and targets combined that player received in games played
PPO = fantasy points per opportunity (PPR)
PPT = fantasy points per target (PPR)
TmPly/Avg = the number of plays the player's team ran versus the league average
TmAtt/Avg = the number of passing attempts the player's team ran versus the league average
FP Shares = the player's fantasy output crossed with his team usage
TmFP% = the percentage of a team's fantasy points scored by the player
